1: the amount of people using multiple accounts is not that big, it certainly does not make up for millions of accounts. there is no real reason to multiaccount, the buffs aren't that big of a deal, it definetly does not make up for millions of accounts
2: Blizzard does NOT count accounts created, don't you do any kind of research before you post? all you had to do is read the actual press release
"World of Warcraft's Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules."
now do humanity a favor and stop posting your ignorant, uninformed assumptions
3: Legend of Mir 2 does NOT count current subscribers, but accounts created. It always has and always will.
nothing new..all old info and quite easy to follow.
What are you yapping on about? I've read all the posts in this thread, and the only figures you've given are the ones that exist only inside your head.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Why do people still make threads like this? Theres about a million of them, what is the purpose of this anyway? Do we really need to hear more about how theres 9 million subscribers because someone has 4 accounts and its because of Asia?
A man dies daily, only to be reborn in the morning, bigger, better and wiser.
-Playing AoC -Playing WoW -Retired- SWG -Retired- EVE -Retired- LotR
Computer (- Phenom 9600 Black Edition @ 2.81 Ghz (Quad Core CPU)- Gigabyte MA790FX-DS5 - 4 Gigs of PC 8500 ram (1066)- EVGA GeForce 8800 GTS PCI Express 2.0 - WD 500GB 7500RPM - Zalman CPU cooler (air cooled) - 24" Widescreen 1080P HD display).
nothing new..all old info and quite easy to follow.
What are you yapping on about? I've read all the posts in this thread, and the only figures you've given are the ones that exist only inside your head.
Don't feel bad I've read over it 5 times now and can't make a damn bit of sense out of anything he posted. Bullshit numbers and then he makes a point supported by nothing as far as i can tell.
1) Several posters have mentioned the same thing..sorry if you cannot understand the simple meaning behind simple math from figures that are plastered all over the net (so your saying the numbers i pulled out of my arse?..lol..whateva, maybe you missed the memo over the past several months..heck years!?...the figures are well advertised and if anyone, with a teeny tiny bit of surfing on this forum for less than an hour, can find it too....its almost as if a person here can't escape the 'numbers' that are common knowledge - this must have simply escaped both of you...obviously)...it still holds....its only about 2%. initial sales are somewhere around 9%-11% retention in regards to total distribution of the original product. sorry, if you don't understand what that means...we need not another thread or long winded post to give marketing lessons...this is a game forum. I can give you links to some SalesMarketing forums though, if you are interested in joining. a much better environment to discuss and understand what the numbers all mean.
2) Add to that the 'ability' of not being able to understand how marketing and advertising works in its upmost simplest forms and why singers and performers, such as famous boy bands and britney spears can sell what they sell, and the numbers they sell of that product reach into the millions....well is beyond me.<---this goes for products too. whether it be Billy Mays selling Oxy-clean, Fruit of the Loom underwear being sold with witty funny characters running around in costumes or games....distribution and marketing works. the bigger you 'do' it....the bigger the minimun expected return is - even if it only yields the "market proven" 1% return upon initial investment - it will respectively, be larger.<-----almost ALL mass mailings use this figure as a mainstay...always have, since around the 50's.
3) In addition..not being able to discern what sales rates and customer retention percentages are, having it fully explained when it doesnt need to be, simply because it is common knowledge....is also beyond me. sorry.
4) you can read it all day long...you will still not understand, ....im sorry. I also assume, you will/have not, look(ed) back on previous threads, as suggested, to mull thru all the sales numbers and marketing info. its all there anyway..just apply simple 2nd grade math to the sales figures past and present.
now back to the numbers that came from my 'bum' as so put forth.
then please.....either one can take a shot at it. i mean - you MUST have the numbers fully memorized and at the ready to type for all to see ...please enlighten us all..what are the sales figures for those games?
fill us in on the following:
WOW
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Blizzards total distribution of CD's to date for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Blizzards total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(to date, existing right NOW)_______________?
EQ1
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Sony/Verant total distribution of CD's at its 3rd year online, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Sony/Verant total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then)_______________?
UO
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) UO's total distribution of CD's in its 3rd year online, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) UO's total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then too)_______________?
DAOC
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Mythics total distribution of CD's in its 3rd year, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Mythics total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then also)_______________?
Thank you for your support
~Bartles and James
------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> --------------------------- <insert witty anecdote here> <political/religious agenda here>
It doesn't matter how many times you infer that I don't understand economics, or retention or how business works - you still provide absolutely no basis for your erroneus arguments. You say your figures are plastered out "all over the net", and that you won't provide them because you don't want to turn this into another economics debate.
I call BS.
These figures are fake. Your whole argument rests on vapor.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
there is no arguement or vapor at all. its just simple math. and what figures are fake?..the ones i used above as an example which i stated prior to making an example typed out? we all still know its 9 million ...of course only 1.5-2mil in NA/EU. but this is all fake?
im sorry you dont understand the numbers and public disclosure. its all right there. there is no need for 'continued' education to see what is obvious.
I have nothing to do with the numbers. your looking at pure data given to you from blizzard in regards to the 9million subs, and then turning around and telling me and everyone on mmorpg.com that its wrong or something?....i cannot fathom that. havent you typed it in the past yourself on other threads too?
also you dont need to know business this or that......you only need one tool....2nd grade math..(as mentioned previously)
I imagine if i typed out the numbers at the top right hand corner of this screen that depicts mmorpg.com's "members","threads" and "posts", with a screenshot of the exact time it was taken. you would say that is vapor too?
even though we all know it will change...oops, there it changed again!
SO..what numbers are not vapor? still waiting for you to provide us with the info on those games above. even settling for just one game's info would be nice. have at it
We are still waiting for something that isnt pulled out of someones arse...Such as the figure of 9 million subs.....because we all know that was just yanked right out of mine and many others 'bum's'.
including Blizzards.
what numbers are not vapors or 'fake'?, if you will, please dont pull them out of your bum likewise. and PLEASE dont say 9mill..we all know you dont approve or beleive that.
its fake.
------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> --------------------------- <insert witty anecdote here> <political/religious agenda here>
I guess alot of new players came with TBC. From my old guild of 60 people im 100% about 40 of them left game with TBC release. But whoever i meet in game today started before 5-6 months. All i knew on my old friend list are gone and stoped playing.
I guess there is enough fresh blood to pick up new accounts when Blizz release new stuff.
--------------------> Would you like some cheese with that whine?
Blizzard have only released subscription figures. Nowhere, anywhere, will you find retention figures, for WoW or any other MMO out there.
You're claiming that WoW has 1% of the retention that EQ does. You said that, you said "1 - 2% of EQ or UO". That's what you said. And I've called you out, because you've simply made those facts up. Show me where those figures exist? They don't. You won't find a link, you won't find an article or interview, or even a forum post by a dev or anyone remotely related to the game development. THE'YRE IN YOU'RE HEAD. There's absolutely no way you can reliably estimate retention figures in a game that's growing by the millions, like I said before, you've pulled the facts out of your arse.
But now you're going back and using subscription figures to back up your theories about retention figures. You can't do that, it's not logicially, mathematically, scientifically sound, it's just taking data and coming to a completely irrelevant conclusion.
You're making it all up!
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
At the end of the day, sub numbers really don't matter as much as server populations. You can have an MMO you really like and as long as it has most of it's servers well-populated and you can log on anytime and see real people in the majority of the world, then it's all good.
This is why EVE players never say a word about subscription numbers, because they have 1 server, with 16-20k people on it on average. There's always another player around your area. That's what makes an MMO an MMO.
Now take SWG on the other hand, they messed up big time. They have so many servers that are dead, and one or two that everyone that wanted to keep playing that game migrated to just so they could see something other than NPC's. Now that is a dilemma, and that's what all MMO's should strive to avoid. Same thing happened to Vanguard, and they are finally merging servers (a bit too late but it's still pretty bad to need a server merge within the first year).
WoW has it's problems too in this area though. There's quite a few WoW servers that for the last 6 months have been very low pop and have gigantic threads on the official WoW forums with people posting "our server needs more people". I think some servers have less than 3K characters and people are struggling to do content, which is pretty sad considering a lot of people do use alts on their server. WoW really should do some merging on their 5 lowest pop servers at least, or offer free transfers to those servers from really high-pop servers.
Then maybe most of the WoW servers would be a bit more balanced, and maybe they could even open up 1 new one. There hasn't been a new WoW server in over 6 months, and I'm sure a lot of returning players (including me) would like a fresh start.
I can only speak for the European realms, but free server moves (Blizzard likes to call it Migration) are commonplace. I don't see why the US realms would be any different.
A lot of new servers were added after the release of TBC. One of the big reasons that there haven't been any new servers added since then, is because there's an entire new continent, and battlegrounds/arenas - meaning there's a whole lot more land to hold people in. So while there has been stready population growth, a lot of it has been soaked up by all of this new land area.
That's not to say there aren't low pop servers, there are. Not very many, (on the EU realms anyway), but some. While some people may see this as a bad thing, rabid fanboys like me who "like to defend blizzard to the death", point out that some people might actually like lower-population realms, and that having a choice - something that a lot of MMOs cannot provide - of what kind of population you would like Azeroth to have, is actually a good thing.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
"......Blizzard have only released subscription figures. Nowhere, anywhere, will you find retention figures, for WoW or any other MMO out there.""
exactly..sub figures is all you need....again im sorry you dont understand what retention rate and sales percentages are. it is still very simple.
""You're claiming that WoW has 1% of the retention that EQ does. You said that, you said "1 - 2% of EQ or UO". That's what you said. And I've called you out, because you've simply made those facts up...."
it is 1-2% that OF eq/UO and DAOC...with first yearly as high as 9-11% retention difference between them. not made up at all. its in print..you even said it above quite clearly.
"...... Show me where those figures exist? They don't. You won't find a link, you won't find an article or interview, or even a forum post by a dev or anyone remotely related to the game development. THE'YRE IN YOU'RE HEAD. There's absolutely no way you can reliably estimate retention figures in a game that's growing by the millions, like I said before, you've pulled the facts out of your arse......"
Wow..again you toally missed the boat on this one too. retention...is the current subscriptions. but we know all those lies posted on blizzards archives on their website are lies too.
".....But now you're going back and using subscription figures to back up your theories about retention figures. You can't do that, it's not logicially, mathematically, scientifically sound, it's just taking data and coming to a completely irrelevant conclusion.
You're making it all up!..."""
LOL...now this is RICH!...going back to what to back up what!????....now you have truely shown you really do not understand a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g that is being put forth to you....... Subs figures ARE the retention figure. They are one in the same thing. The "RATES" and PERCENTAGES are what you derive and extrapolate from that. lol...thats rich.
as i said before....you honestly do NOT beleive there is 9 million subs then? and it is not me you are calling out..<----i find it extremely funny that you even used that terminology. Its Blizzard you have <ahem>"called out"...or shall i venture to say: its blizzard you simply just dont believe.
I really think you are ONLY looking at the sales totals(numberwise) for all games involved here and since wow has a larger number, you assume and base all your thoughts on this surface information. we are not talking just sales numbers...the original reply was in regards to WOW having right around if not a teeny tiny bit leess than , the performance eq/uo and daoc has had in their 3rd years.
Too many fanbois post drivel about blizzard blowing everything out of the water...in pure sale numbers, maybe that is true...but considering the Mtv type distribution, tv commercials,vid's etc.etc...of promotion it had we can delve a little further into those numbers to see a little more thru the tunnel of misinformation.
what i have been saying all along,in regards to this 1-2% and 9-11/12% , and the performance that isnt MIND blowing against eq/uo and daoc's same figures (even though the numbers are indeed smaller..the RATES and percentages are not)...considering the initial investment and how many cd's were put out there to gain 9 million subs.,is quite simple....
if blizzard printed 1000 cd's and had 100 subs after 3 years...is the rate at which you are selling your stock or holding customers any higher than eq/uo/daoc, if they only released 100 cd's and had only 10 subs after 3 years.
nope..same performance...not the same money..just same PLAYER retention rate and sales percentage...they are exactly the same. simple math, all i'm saying...nothing else.
plain and simple...thats all i have been saying regarding this...the performance of the sales and subs..is the same between the games...not what most fanbois try to spew forth between sips of mountaindew.......There are smaller numbers in eq/uo/ and daoc...but its still the same performance.
Blizzard printed "X" amount of cd's, they have "X" amount of subs to date in 3rd year.
Sony printed "X" amount of cd's, they had "X" amount of subs in their 3rd year also.
Do you think there were 15 million copies of World of Warcraft printed and sold worldwide on CD's alone?
is this teeny tiny number of cd's possible for a game such as this!? isnt it much much much higher in order to supply the entire world....well for arguements sake..lets just stick with a real real small number that you 'may' beleive.
again... Do you think 15 million Cd's have been distributed worldwide?
well..lets just go from there....here is the meat of it...its nothing big...its quite simple and it is the only comparison i have been making through-out several posts and seperate threads from other posters and myself.
again lets assume the figure for wow is a teeny tiny 15 million.......no WAIT..lets go even further...and bring it down to 10.
So, can we agree that blizzard has indeed printed at least, 10 million cd's and distributed them worldwide to gain 9 million subs?
by year #3 - 10 million cd's created and sold - 9 million subs?
EQ1 is somewhere around 250k upon release and sold out also(although didnt sell out in one weekend). Still same performance..lesser numbers..but SAME performance in sales...and three years later..the subscriptions they had were around double that of the 250k cd's printed in first year.
(gasp!?..does this mean that blizzard would have had to print 15 million copies and then have 30 million players in its 3rd year....why...yes it does.!)
anyway...mythic and UO had the same exact performance.
I still honestly think blizzard has distributed close to 40-50million worldwide (including Digitals). but distributing more cd's and making the number larger than 15million( which is a joke of a number to begin with-all things considering)...will only make the performance of WoW sales percentages worse...overall.
for if it really was 50 million cd's/digital downloads, and only having 9 million subs...that would mean in order for WoW to have better sales rates and percentages:
eq1 would have distributed 250k cd's and only had 40k players TOTAL after 3 years!?
ditto with UO and DAOC.......of course we know thats laughable. most that played on eq1 remembers the announcement made ingame "SYSTEMWIDE MESSAGE - We are proud to announce Everquest has 100,000 players ongame together as we speak!"
this announcement was around its 3rd year. i was ingame at the time.
All the games mentioned above..have right around the same performance...except WoW has a slightly smaller figure. their numbers are massivley huge ...but the performance is all the same.
nothing groundbreaking but the distribution employed.
sure eq/daoc and UO may have sold hundreds of times less in PURE numbers....but the amount of CD's they all printed and the numbers they all sold and the players they all gained and kept...have about equal rates and percentages, respectively speaking.
its just that eq/uo and daoc were smaller.
thats all...
I really hope you beleive 10 million cd's were printed and distirbuted worldwide.
do you?
------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> --------------------------- <insert witty anecdote here> <political/religious agenda here>
The English Language says you are wrong. Retention by definition in sales and marketing terminology is defined as keeping existing customers. So, total subscriber numbers for a game can tell you nothing about retention - especially if it is increasing by millions every few months. You can't even make an accurate guess. The only obvious commentary you can make is that subscribers cancelling are fewer than new people subscribing, or resubscribing, but to offer anything more than a wild guess of retention rates is folly.
You claim to be able to derrive retention figures from subscription numbers, this is not possible. You have either misunderstood the meaning of the word retention, or you are trying to mask your flawed argument with reams of incomprehensible nonsense, in an attempt to baffle those who are using their brains instead of accepting your questionable statistics at face value.
Either way, you're as wrong as can be.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Originally posted by Tolwynn I'm done with this conversation with you - you are clueless.
I cannot continue to associate with that....its truely a waste of my wasted time on the net. /wave
Not only are your skills in English and Mathematics appalling, but your arrogance is unforgivable. Recant is completely right, and you've made a fool of yourself publicly. Congratulations.
Originally posted by Tolwynn so are you going to contribute to the OP's post?
or not? see what happens!?.....does it involve a tube sock and wood screws?
Are you going to edit this post later to avoid deletion, or can I count on you to stick behind your insults and take the fall like you should? It's bad enough to insult the intelligence of everyone around you, but then to edit your comments later to make them seem less like trolling is just disgusting. Grow up.
"......Blizzard have only released subscription figures. Nowhere, anywhere, will you find retention figures, for WoW or any other MMO out there.""
exactly..sub figures is all you need....again im sorry you dont understand what retention rate and sales percentages are. it is still very simple.EQ1 is somewhere around 250k upon release and sold out also(although didnt sell out in one weekend). Still same performance..lesser numbers..but SAME performance in sales...and three years later..the subscriptions they had were around double that of the 250k cd's printed in first year.
Your understanding of sales and marketing is poor.
Subscription figures are not retention figures and should not be confused. Current active subscriptions compared to previous active subscriptions do not define retention or implicitly show any direct correlation to it. Players come and go, and in your example of EQ1, we can see that the original sales of CD's, has born no relation to the total number of accounts retained. Quite the opposite, they show clear and irrefutable evidence of new account acquisition.
With regards to CD sales, World of Warcraft is still a top selling game in stores 3 years after it's release. It is not only on active subscriptions that this game is breaking records.
Most other MMO's, like your example of EQ1, three years on, are unable to sell CD's at all. They give away the client software and charge for subscriptions only. (As indeed WoW does in China). WoW is not only still selling the original client, but also the expansion. Sales are so strong it hasn't even got to the point where it is offering a bundled package yet.
When like EQ1, WoW's popularity fades to the point where the client software no longer has any market value and can no longer be sold in CD form, then, 3 years after that point, we will be in a position to compare sales percentages to the figures you have given us for EQ1.
First year sales performance of EQ1, however, in no way mirrors the sales performance of WoW. 250,000/19,000,000 does not = 1. You would need to start comparing WoW with a title like The Sims or Zelda to find something with comparable sales performance, and even then, you would have to compare a complete series of games over a ten year period to single issue of WoW and ignore all revenues gained from subscriptions.
WoW's figure of 9 million subscribers, rather than being "pulled out of your bum" are released both in the Vivendi's public accounts and in Blizzards press releases. As such they have a legal obligation to be factually correct under both advertising law and investment law. I would cite Enron as an example of what happens to company employee's who misrepresent the value of their business.
Pulling these figures out of your bum and then publishing them to the owners of your company is a criminal offence. In Europe, false advertising is also a criminal offence. Blizzard's 9 million active subcribers complete with notice on how those figures are generated are as accurate a picture as the company is able to give you, and more accurate than any figures offered by rival companies.
They don't have to lie or mislead, they are the record breaking market leaders by a massive margin.
Given the obvious massive share of the market and the weakness of the current opposition, if I had to make a guess about Blizzards retention figures, I would guess that like every other statistical analysis of the sales, that they will also be out performing all their rivals by a factor of over 10. But like you, I have no evidence to back that up, it is simply my best guess.
You are imagining what the results for other games may have been, and then comparing them to what you imagine the results of WoW to have been.
You haven't "seen" anything at all.
WoW is the only company I know that has been willing to publicly annouce it's active subscriptions. No company has released any retention figures that I'm aware of, ever.
Given that the only actual results that you have seen (9 million active subscribers), you have been unable to accept, I don't think you find seeing things easy at all. The only evidence on display in this thread you have studiously and willfully not seen.
yes..actually back then server numbers were the 'only' thing you saw loggin into the server(s) of choice. so you knew how many were on at any given time.
we have not been able to see this for a long time, save for a few limited games - daoc for example.
but anyway ,im only talking about the initial distribution and the 'known' number of subs 3 years later. Wow distributed and sold on a much larger scale.....so the numbers are indeed bloated....but its the same as the other games mentioned.
just scaled down
------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert gloat of ubar toon here> <insert random game here> --------------------------- <insert witty anecdote here> <political/religious agenda here>
Comments
1: the amount of people using multiple accounts is not that big, it certainly does not make up for millions of accounts. there is no real reason to multiaccount, the buffs aren't that big of a deal, it definetly does not make up for millions of accounts
2: Blizzard does NOT count accounts created, don't you do any kind of research before you post? all you had to do is read the actual press release
"World of Warcraft's Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules."
now do humanity a favor and stop posting your ignorant, uninformed assumptions
3: Legend of Mir 2 does NOT count current subscribers, but accounts created. It always has and always will.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Why do people still make threads like this? Theres about a million of them, what is the purpose of this anyway? Do we really need to hear more about how theres 9 million subscribers because someone has 4 accounts and its because of Asia?
A man dies daily, only to be reborn in the morning, bigger, better and wiser.
-Playing AoC
-Playing WoW
-Retired- SWG
-Retired- EVE
-Retired- LotR
Computer (- Phenom 9600 Black Edition @ 2.81 Ghz (Quad Core CPU)- Gigabyte MA790FX-DS5 - 4 Gigs of PC 8500 ram (1066)- EVGA GeForce 8800 GTS PCI Express 2.0 - WD 500GB 7500RPM - Zalman CPU cooler (air cooled)
- 24" Widescreen 1080P HD display).
lies, they have 8,999,999 subscribers, i just canceled.
Don't feel bad I've read over it 5 times now and can't make a damn bit of sense out of anything he posted. Bullshit numbers and then he makes a point supported by nothing as far as i can tell.
its all simple math..
its very naive to think not.
1) Several posters have mentioned the same thing..sorry if you cannot understand the simple meaning behind simple math from figures that are plastered all over the net (so your saying the numbers i pulled out of my arse?..lol..whateva, maybe you missed the memo over the past several months..heck years!?...the figures are well advertised and if anyone, with a teeny tiny bit of surfing on this forum for less than an hour, can find it too....its almost as if a person here can't escape the 'numbers' that are common knowledge - this must have simply escaped both of you...obviously)...it still holds....its only about 2%. initial sales are somewhere around 9%-11% retention in regards to total distribution of the original product. sorry, if you don't understand what that means...we need not another thread or long winded post to give marketing lessons...this is a game forum. I can give you links to some SalesMarketing forums though, if you are interested in joining. a much better environment to discuss and understand what the numbers all mean.
2) Add to that the 'ability' of not being able to understand how marketing and advertising works in its upmost simplest forms and why singers and performers, such as famous boy bands and britney spears can sell what they sell, and the numbers they sell of that product reach into the millions....well is beyond me.<---this goes for products too. whether it be Billy Mays selling Oxy-clean, Fruit of the Loom underwear being sold with witty funny characters running around in costumes or games....distribution and marketing works. the bigger you 'do' it....the bigger the minimun expected return is - even if it only yields the "market proven" 1% return upon initial investment - it will respectively, be larger.<-----almost ALL mass mailings use this figure as a mainstay...always have, since around the 50's.
3) In addition..not being able to discern what sales rates and customer retention percentages are, having it fully explained when it doesnt need to be, simply because it is common knowledge....is also beyond me. sorry.
4) you can read it all day long...you will still not understand, ....im sorry. I also assume, you will/have not, look(ed) back on previous threads, as suggested, to mull thru all the sales numbers and marketing info. its all there anyway..just apply simple 2nd grade math to the sales figures past and present.
now back to the numbers that came from my 'bum' as so put forth.
then please.....either one can take a shot at it. i mean - you MUST have the numbers fully memorized and at the ready to type for all to see ...please enlighten us all..what are the sales figures for those games?
fill us in on the following:
WOW
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Blizzards total distribution of CD's to date for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Blizzards total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(to date, existing right NOW)_______________?
EQ1
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Sony/Verant total distribution of CD's at its 3rd year online, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Sony/Verant total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then)_______________?
UO
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) UO's total distribution of CD's in its 3rd year online, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) UO's total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then too)_______________?
DAOC
a)First Years Sales & Distribution numbers for North America/EU of CD's/Accounts are ____________?
b) Mythics total distribution of CD's in its 3rd year, for NA/EU is ____________?
c) Mythics total number of active accounts in its 3rd year(back then also)_______________?
Thank you for your support
~Bartles and James
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<insert gloat of ubar toon here>
<insert random game here>
<insert gloat of ubar toon here>
<insert gloat of ubar toon here>
<insert random game here>
---------------------------
<insert witty anecdote here>
<political/religious agenda here>
Last year it's 8 million. This year 9 million. Next year 10 million?
Look at what publicity can do. It's all shit.
It doesn't matter how many times you infer that I don't understand economics, or retention or how business works - you still provide absolutely no basis for your erroneus arguments. You say your figures are plastered out "all over the net", and that you won't provide them because you don't want to turn this into another economics debate.
I call BS.
These figures are fake. Your whole argument rests on vapor.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Everyone is leaving wow, but the figures rise? Of course Oo
Soon there will be 99% in Asia and 1% in the rest of the world. "O great, we have 10mio subs (but you'll never find another player)"
there is no arguement or vapor at all. its just simple math. and what figures are fake?..the ones i used above as an example which i stated prior to making an example typed out? we all still know its 9 million ...of course only 1.5-2mil in NA/EU. but this is all fake?
im sorry you dont understand the numbers and public disclosure. its all right there. there is no need for 'continued' education to see what is obvious.
I have nothing to do with the numbers. your looking at pure data given to you from blizzard in regards to the 9million subs, and then turning around and telling me and everyone on mmorpg.com that its wrong or something?....i cannot fathom that. havent you typed it in the past yourself on other threads too?
also you dont need to know business this or that......you only need one tool....2nd grade math..(as mentioned previously)
I imagine if i typed out the numbers at the top right hand corner of this screen that depicts mmorpg.com's "members","threads" and "posts", with a screenshot of the exact time it was taken. you would say that is vapor too?
even though we all know it will change...oops, there it changed again!
SO..what numbers are not vapor? still waiting for you to provide us with the info on those games above. even settling for just one game's info would be nice. have at it
We are still waiting for something that isnt pulled out of someones arse...Such as the figure of 9 million subs.....because we all know that was just yanked right out of mine and many others 'bum's'.
including Blizzards.
what numbers are not vapors or 'fake'?, if you will, please dont pull them out of your bum likewise. and PLEASE dont say 9mill..we all know you dont approve or beleive that.
its fake.
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I guess alot of new players came with TBC. From my old guild of 60 people im 100% about 40 of them left game with TBC release. But whoever i meet in game today started before 5-6 months. All i knew on my old friend list are gone and stoped playing.
I guess there is enough fresh blood to pick up new accounts when Blizz release new stuff.
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Would you like some cheese with that whine?
Blizzard have only released subscription figures. Nowhere, anywhere, will you find retention figures, for WoW or any other MMO out there.
You're claiming that WoW has 1% of the retention that EQ does. You said that, you said "1 - 2% of EQ or UO". That's what you said. And I've called you out, because you've simply made those facts up. Show me where those figures exist? They don't. You won't find a link, you won't find an article or interview, or even a forum post by a dev or anyone remotely related to the game development. THE'YRE IN YOU'RE HEAD. There's absolutely no way you can reliably estimate retention figures in a game that's growing by the millions, like I said before, you've pulled the facts out of your arse.
But now you're going back and using subscription figures to back up your theories about retention figures. You can't do that, it's not logicially, mathematically, scientifically sound, it's just taking data and coming to a completely irrelevant conclusion.
You're making it all up!
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
At the end of the day, sub numbers really don't matter as much as server populations. You can have an MMO you really like and as long as it has most of it's servers well-populated and you can log on anytime and see real people in the majority of the world, then it's all good.
This is why EVE players never say a word about subscription numbers, because they have 1 server, with 16-20k people on it on average. There's always another player around your area. That's what makes an MMO an MMO.
Now take SWG on the other hand, they messed up big time. They have so many servers that are dead, and one or two that everyone that wanted to keep playing that game migrated to just so they could see something other than NPC's. Now that is a dilemma, and that's what all MMO's should strive to avoid. Same thing happened to Vanguard, and they are finally merging servers (a bit too late but it's still pretty bad to need a server merge within the first year).
WoW has it's problems too in this area though. There's quite a few WoW servers that for the last 6 months have been very low pop and have gigantic threads on the official WoW forums with people posting "our server needs more people". I think some servers have less than 3K characters and people are struggling to do content, which is pretty sad considering a lot of people do use alts on their server. WoW really should do some merging on their 5 lowest pop servers at least, or offer free transfers to those servers from really high-pop servers.
Then maybe most of the WoW servers would be a bit more balanced, and maybe they could even open up 1 new one. There hasn't been a new WoW server in over 6 months, and I'm sure a lot of returning players (including me) would like a fresh start.
I can only speak for the European realms, but free server moves (Blizzard likes to call it Migration) are commonplace. I don't see why the US realms would be any different.
A lot of new servers were added after the release of TBC. One of the big reasons that there haven't been any new servers added since then, is because there's an entire new continent, and battlegrounds/arenas - meaning there's a whole lot more land to hold people in. So while there has been stready population growth, a lot of it has been soaked up by all of this new land area.
That's not to say there aren't low pop servers, there are. Not very many, (on the EU realms anyway), but some. While some people may see this as a bad thing, rabid fanboys like me who "like to defend blizzard to the death", point out that some people might actually like lower-population realms, and that having a choice - something that a lot of MMOs cannot provide - of what kind of population you would like Azeroth to have, is actually a good thing.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
"......Blizzard have only released subscription figures. Nowhere, anywhere, will you find retention figures, for WoW or any other MMO out there.""
exactly..sub figures is all you need....again im sorry you dont understand what retention rate and sales percentages are. it is still very simple.
""You're claiming that WoW has 1% of the retention that EQ does. You said that, you said "1 - 2% of EQ or UO". That's what you said. And I've called you out, because you've simply made those facts up...."
it is 1-2% that OF eq/UO and DAOC...with first yearly as high as 9-11% retention difference between them. not made up at all. its in print..you even said it above quite clearly.
"...... Show me where those figures exist? They don't. You won't find a link, you won't find an article or interview, or even a forum post by a dev or anyone remotely related to the game development. THE'YRE IN YOU'RE HEAD. There's absolutely no way you can reliably estimate retention figures in a game that's growing by the millions, like I said before, you've pulled the facts out of your arse......"
Wow..again you toally missed the boat on this one too. retention...is the current subscriptions. but we know all those lies posted on blizzards archives on their website are lies too.
".....But now you're going back and using subscription figures to back up your theories about retention figures. You can't do that, it's not logicially, mathematically, scientifically sound, it's just taking data and coming to a completely irrelevant conclusion.
You're making it all up!..."""
LOL...now this is RICH!...going back to what to back up what!????....now you have truely shown you really do not understand a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g that is being put forth to you....... Subs figures ARE the retention figure. They are one in the same thing. The "RATES" and PERCENTAGES are what you derive and extrapolate from that. lol...thats rich.
as i said before....you honestly do NOT beleive there is 9 million subs then? and it is not me you are calling out..<----i find it extremely funny that you even used that terminology. Its Blizzard you have <ahem>"called out"...or shall i venture to say: its blizzard you simply just dont believe.
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I really think you are ONLY looking at the sales totals(numberwise) for all games involved here and since wow has a larger number, you assume and base all your thoughts on this surface information. we are not talking just sales numbers...the original reply was in regards to WOW having right around if not a teeny tiny bit leess than , the performance eq/uo and daoc has had in their 3rd years.
Too many fanbois post drivel about blizzard blowing everything out of the water...in pure sale numbers, maybe that is true...but considering the Mtv type distribution, tv commercials,vid's etc.etc...of promotion it had we can delve a little further into those numbers to see a little more thru the tunnel of misinformation.
what i have been saying all along,in regards to this 1-2% and 9-11/12% , and the performance that isnt MIND blowing against eq/uo and daoc's same figures (even though the numbers are indeed smaller..the RATES and percentages are not)...considering the initial investment and how many cd's were put out there to gain 9 million subs.,is quite simple....
if blizzard printed 1000 cd's and had 100 subs after 3 years...is the rate at which you are selling your stock or holding customers any higher than eq/uo/daoc, if they only released 100 cd's and had only 10 subs after 3 years.
nope..same performance...not the same money..just same PLAYER retention rate and sales percentage...they are exactly the same. simple math, all i'm saying...nothing else.
plain and simple...thats all i have been saying regarding this...the performance of the sales and subs..is the same between the games...not what most fanbois try to spew forth between sips of mountaindew.......There are smaller numbers in eq/uo/ and daoc...but its still the same performance.
Blizzard printed "X" amount of cd's, they have "X" amount of subs to date in 3rd year.
Sony printed "X" amount of cd's, they had "X" amount of subs in their 3rd year also.
UO ...ditto the above
Mythic..ditto the above.
its quite simple.
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Do you think there were 15 million copies of World of Warcraft printed and sold worldwide on CD's alone?
is this teeny tiny number of cd's possible for a game such as this!? isnt it much much much higher in order to supply the entire world....well for arguements sake..lets just stick with a real real small number that you 'may' beleive.
again... Do you think 15 million Cd's have been distributed worldwide?
well..lets just go from there....here is the meat of it...its nothing big...its quite simple and it is the only comparison i have been making through-out several posts and seperate threads from other posters and myself.
again lets assume the figure for wow is a teeny tiny 15 million.......no WAIT..lets go even further...and bring it down to 10.
So, can we agree that blizzard has indeed printed at least, 10 million cd's and distributed them worldwide to gain 9 million subs?
by year #3 - 10 million cd's created and sold - 9 million subs?
EQ1 is somewhere around 250k upon release and sold out also(although didnt sell out in one weekend). Still same performance..lesser numbers..but SAME performance in sales...and three years later..the subscriptions they had were around double that of the 250k cd's printed in first year.
(gasp!?..does this mean that blizzard would have had to print 15 million copies and then have 30 million players in its 3rd year....why...yes it does.!)
anyway...mythic and UO had the same exact performance.
I still honestly think blizzard has distributed close to 40-50million worldwide (including Digitals). but distributing more cd's and making the number larger than 15million( which is a joke of a number to begin with-all things considering)...will only make the performance of WoW sales percentages worse...overall.
for if it really was 50 million cd's/digital downloads, and only having 9 million subs...that would mean in order for WoW to have better sales rates and percentages:
eq1 would have distributed 250k cd's and only had 40k players TOTAL after 3 years!?
ditto with UO and DAOC.......of course we know thats laughable. most that played on eq1 remembers the announcement made ingame "SYSTEMWIDE MESSAGE - We are proud to announce Everquest has 100,000 players ongame together as we speak!"
this announcement was around its 3rd year. i was ingame at the time.
All the games mentioned above..have right around the same performance...except WoW has a slightly smaller figure. their numbers are massivley huge ...but the performance is all the same.
nothing groundbreaking but the distribution employed.
sure eq/daoc and UO may have sold hundreds of times less in PURE numbers....but the amount of CD's they all printed and the numbers they all sold and the players they all gained and kept...have about equal rates and percentages, respectively speaking.
its just that eq/uo and daoc were smaller.
thats all...
I really hope you beleive 10 million cd's were printed and distirbuted worldwide.
do you?
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The English Language says you are wrong. Retention by definition in sales and marketing terminology is defined as keeping existing customers. So, total subscriber numbers for a game can tell you nothing about retention - especially if it is increasing by millions every few months. You can't even make an accurate guess. The only obvious commentary you can make is that subscribers cancelling are fewer than new people subscribing, or resubscribing, but to offer anything more than a wild guess of retention rates is folly.
You claim to be able to derrive retention figures from subscription numbers, this is not possible. You have either misunderstood the meaning of the word retention, or you are trying to mask your flawed argument with reams of incomprehensible nonsense, in an attempt to baffle those who are using their brains instead of accepting your questionable statistics at face value.
Either way, you're as wrong as can be.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Not only are your skills in English and Mathematics appalling, but your arrogance is unforgivable. Recant is completely right, and you've made a fool of yourself publicly. Congratulations.
Regarding the OP... does it really matter?
do you have anything to add to the forums post regarding the subject from the OP?
or you trolling as per Mr."V"?
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Yes, because clearly *I* am the troll. Continue calling me names and provoking responses, please, so you can see what happens.
Are you going to edit this post later to avoid deletion, or can I count on you to stick behind your insults and take the fall like you should? It's bad enough to insult the intelligence of everyone around you, but then to edit your comments later to make them seem less like trolling is just disgusting. Grow up.
Your understanding of sales and marketing is poor.
Subscription figures are not retention figures and should not be confused. Current active subscriptions compared to previous active subscriptions do not define retention or implicitly show any direct correlation to it. Players come and go, and in your example of EQ1, we can see that the original sales of CD's, has born no relation to the total number of accounts retained. Quite the opposite, they show clear and irrefutable evidence of new account acquisition.
With regards to CD sales, World of Warcraft is still a top selling game in stores 3 years after it's release. It is not only on active subscriptions that this game is breaking records.
Most other MMO's, like your example of EQ1, three years on, are unable to sell CD's at all. They give away the client software and charge for subscriptions only. (As indeed WoW does in China). WoW is not only still selling the original client, but also the expansion. Sales are so strong it hasn't even got to the point where it is offering a bundled package yet.
When like EQ1, WoW's popularity fades to the point where the client software no longer has any market value and can no longer be sold in CD form, then, 3 years after that point, we will be in a position to compare sales percentages to the figures you have given us for EQ1.
First year sales performance of EQ1, however, in no way mirrors the sales performance of WoW. 250,000/19,000,000 does not = 1. You would need to start comparing WoW with a title like The Sims or Zelda to find something with comparable sales performance, and even then, you would have to compare a complete series of games over a ten year period to single issue of WoW and ignore all revenues gained from subscriptions.
WoW's figure of 9 million subscribers, rather than being "pulled out of your bum" are released both in the Vivendi's public accounts and in Blizzards press releases. As such they have a legal obligation to be factually correct under both advertising law and investment law. I would cite Enron as an example of what happens to company employee's who misrepresent the value of their business.
Pulling these figures out of your bum and then publishing them to the owners of your company is a criminal offence. In Europe, false advertising is also a criminal offence. Blizzard's 9 million active subcribers complete with notice on how those figures are generated are as accurate a picture as the company is able to give you, and more accurate than any figures offered by rival companies.
They don't have to lie or mislead, they are the record breaking market leaders by a massive margin.
Given the obvious massive share of the market and the weakness of the current opposition, if I had to make a guess about Blizzards retention figures, I would guess that like every other statistical analysis of the sales, that they will also be out performing all their rivals by a factor of over 10. But like you, I have no evidence to back that up, it is simply my best guess.
its very easy to see, its all the same....just on a smaller scale.
/shrug
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Easy to imagine.
You are imagining what the results for other games may have been, and then comparing them to what you imagine the results of WoW to have been.
You haven't "seen" anything at all.
WoW is the only company I know that has been willing to publicly annouce it's active subscriptions. No company has released any retention figures that I'm aware of, ever.
Given that the only actual results that you have seen (9 million active subscribers), you have been unable to accept, I don't think you find seeing things easy at all. The only evidence on display in this thread you have studiously and willfully not seen.
yes..actually back then server numbers were the 'only' thing you saw loggin into the server(s) of choice. so you knew how many were on at any given time.
we have not been able to see this for a long time, save for a few limited games - daoc for example.
but anyway ,im only talking about the initial distribution and the 'known' number of subs 3 years later. Wow distributed and sold on a much larger scale.....so the numbers are indeed bloated....but its the same as the other games mentioned.
just scaled down
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