Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Darkfall and Xfire
Trashcantoy
Member Posts: 827
Since the overwhelming majority of the ppl on these forums see Xfire as solid proof for how a game is doing i present to you the xfire stats for DF: http://www.xfire.com/games/darkfall/Darkfall/
notice that it has been dropping since release? all those messages about "ppl waiting in line to purchase the game" make me laugh tbh. just a bit longer and it will fall under games like Anarchy Online (with about 10-12k subs atm)
or are we gonna argue that DF players, playing a game that is solely advertised on the internet, are not using xfire at all? that suddenly the casual gamers are now using xfire instead of the die hard whiz kids out there?
discuss
MMOs currently playing: -
About to play: Lord of the Rings Online
Played: Anarchy Online (alltime favorite) and lots of f2p titles (honorable mentions: 9Dragons, Martial Heroes, Dekaron, Atlantica Online)
Comments
I dont use xfire, its kinda crappy now.
Theres a good population on the darkfall server (if you have actually been on that is).
Xfire is bonkers, been using it a lot though but to what end I always wonder and probably going to stop using it because it just sucks.
My profile: www.xfire.com/profile/beltara
Thanks for your excellent presentation. Very useful thread...
He that lives upon Hope dies farting.
One interesting thing that the graph does not show is the fact there is no real dip in activity at the 1 month mark, where people had to start paying for the game after the free month. But as someone above me already said, why does anyone care about this? Do you need an X-Fire graph to tell you if the game is fun or not?
TwitchTV Partnered Streamer
MMORPG.com Spotlight Blog Writer
Co-Leader of Inquisition
Youtube Channel
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
that's cause most of DF's player base is on for very long periods of time afk macroing :P
lol, it's possible. i don't think macroing is *that* widespread though, plenty of people are thoroughly against it.
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
quoting my own reply...
combining this ballparking exercise with the other data point we have from back when DF was showing the number of concurrent users in the friends list: the highest number i observed there was close to 7000 concurrent users. using EVE data, where 250K known subs usually translates into 40-50K peak concurrent users (ie: approx 20% of total subs online at peak).
assuming that more people are probably online for a brand new game, say 30% of all DF subs == peak concurrent, we can approximate that around the time DF removed concurrent numbers from the friends list, that DF's sub numbers were probably in the vicinity of 23K shortly after release (7000 / 0.3).
so in all likeliness, DF subs have probably grown since release, from approx 20K up to somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40K subs.
lol, it's possible. i don't think macroing is *that* widespread though, plenty of people are thoroughly against it.
Are you kidding. People never log off. when you are done playing for the day, you go into town and macro. Every town is populated by naked people macroing something.
unattended macroing is like the auto-loot hack. So many people are doing it, it doesn't even feel like it is against the rules any more
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
quoting my own reply...
combining this ballparking exercise with the other data point we have from back when DF was showing the number of concurrent users in the friends list: the highest number i observed there was close to 7000 concurrent users. using EVE data, where 250K known subs usually translates into 40-50K peak concurrent users (ie: approx 20% of total subs online at peak).
assuming that more people are probably online for a brand new game, say 30% of all DF subs == peak concurrent, we can approximate that around the time DF removed concurrent numbers from the friends list, that DF's sub numbers were probably in the vicinity of 23K shortly after release (7000 / 0.3).
so in all likeliness, DF subs have probably grown since release, from approx 20K up to somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40K subs.
haha.. really? You are doing the EVE ratio, when in fact EVE lets you train skills while you are logged off, but darkfall requires you to be online and unattended macroing?
Again, join a guild in DF and see how many people are online but aren't actually there.
xfire numbers are based on total hours played of a game. which means the number of subs could well have remained the same or even increased but the average number of hours played by those playing have gone down. or it could mean a few less subscribers, or it could be a temporary dip post-easter holidays. noone can be sure.
that said, all games, including wow, show the same trend after release (or expansions), as people play more at the start, then it levels off.
there would need to be a consistent, months long downward trend to be able to confidently say the number of DF subs are declining. if anything, DF's numbers are pretty steady.
what is REALLY interesting, is that DF's xfire numbers are around 2-3K hrs/day, compared to WAR, which has a LOT more subscribers, at 10-15K, or EVE at around 15K -- WAR & EVE are only played ~5 times more in total hours compared to DF.
interestingly also: WAR's and EVE's sub numbers are around 250K and they have roughly the same number of total hours played. using this multiplier (250K subs / 15K hours played on xfire), and assuming that Darkfall, EVE and WAR players all play roughly the same number of average hours per day of their respective games, and assuming the proportion of DF, WAR, and EVE players who use xfire is also pretty similar, we can derive that:
the approximate total subscriber number of DF is 250K / 15K * 2.5K == 41K DF subscribers.
i expect, that with DF being such a new game, that people are still playing DF slightly more in terms of hours per day than its contemporaries, so a more accurate sub number for DF might be more in the range of 30-40K subs.
going back to my first point, that we cannot be sure what the numbers are telling us about sub numbers, it may well be that the number of hours played per day per xfire user has been dropping due to newness of the game wearing off but that DF subs have been growing consistently due to frequent small sales of new subs over the past weeks, that the total hours played is remaining steady. actually i think this hypothesis makes the most sense: DF's sub numbers are rising but the number of hours played per xfire user has been slowly declining cause xfire reported numbers to remain quite steady. we will see. hopefully Av will make an announcement about their sub numbers.
^lol Does he realize in Eve you can train a skill while not even logged on? And in DF I see people macroing all over the place and I'm relatively new. Serious? Are you that blind? Dude just lost all credit, and from previous posts I should've known better.
really why do you care?
cause this same crap has always been used against me in discussions at these forums, i want to see what ppl make of it now, its entertaining to read at least..
MMOs currently playing: -
About to play: Lord of the Rings Online
Played: Anarchy Online (alltime favorite) and lots of f2p titles (honorable mentions: 9Dragons, Martial Heroes, Dekaron, Atlantica Online)
doesn't affect the OBSERVED ratio of 40-50K online and 250K subs... and doesn't mean people play less than other games at all. i controlled for higher hours/player in DF but using a value of 30% instead of 20%. 30% implies an average playtime at peak of just over 7 hours per account per day. btw, you realise eve has a strong macro mining culture, right?
and btw, i *am* in a clan and i do macro while feeding my kid or making dinner, which is legal. it's not that widespread, maybe 5-10% i would guess are macroing at any one time, realistic example: say there's 30ish people at the bank and i can hear 2 macroers, that's 6.7%, or in my clan of 60, there might be 2 people macroing the grove. btw that's assuming they're actually macroing and not manually clicking but you get the point.
No.
I don't use X-fire and I don't knwo anyone who does. So.. by your logic.. people with the first name of A playing Darkfall reprsent the majority.
Currently playing Real Life..
http://i36.tinypic.com/2uyod3k.gif
For all your stalking needs..
http://www.plurk.com/Random_
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
You cant rely on Xfire numbers as most ppl dont use the service. I dont use xfire personally.
Played : WOW, LOTRO, COH/COV, EQ2, SWG, and WAR.
Playing EVE Online and AOC.
Wtg for SW:TOR and WOD
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
Currently playing Real Life..
http://i36.tinypic.com/2uyod3k.gif
For all your stalking needs..
http://www.plurk.com/Random_
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
When we aren't told the numbers outright you have to base things off statistics. No statistic in this situation will be 100% correct but you can find a trend and corrolation. Every single time the "Xfire numbers are down" threads appear, you have people saying it is not true, but soon enough we find out that the game is really losing people. You use these numbers as a sample, since we have no other samples to view from.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
Agreed!
if 5% of darkfall players have xfire there is an EQUAL Chance that the ones who have Xfire will quit as the ones who DONT have xfire will quit, hence they are an accurate random sampling.
Making that 5% of its population an accurate representation of the whole pie.
Yay I listened in math!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
Agreed!
if 5% of darkfall players have xfire there is an EQUAL Chance that the ones who have Xfire will quit as the ones who DONT have xfire will quit, hence they are an accurate random sampling.
Making that 5% of its population an accurate representation of the whole pie.
Yay I listened in math!
Although one could argue that the one's who bother to set up an Xfire are usually a little more hardcore than your average player, so I don't think you can count it as a truely "random" sampling.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
Agreed!
if 5% of darkfall players have xfire there is an EQUAL Chance that the ones who have Xfire will quit as the ones who DONT have xfire will quit, hence they are an accurate random sampling.
Making that 5% of its population an accurate representation of the whole pie.
Yay I listened in math!
Although one could argue that the one's who bother to set up an Xfire are usually a little more hardcore than your average player, so I don't think you can count it as a truely "random" sampling.
Probably, but then woudn't it be MORE alarming if the Xfire players quit? Since they are more of a hardcore gamer and that is the type of player they are trying to cater to?
Also if they care enough to register Xfire + Darkfall then they probably care enough to hype the game and be excited, I'd be alarmed if this group showed losses.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
Agreed!
if 5% of darkfall players have xfire there is an EQUAL Chance that the ones who have Xfire will quit as the ones who DONT have xfire will quit, hence they are an accurate random sampling.
Making that 5% of its population an accurate representation of the whole pie.
Yay I listened in math!
Although one could argue that the one's who bother to set up an Xfire are usually a little more hardcore than your average player, so I don't think you can count it as a truely "random" sampling.
Probably, but then woudn't it be MORE alarming if the Xfire players quit? Since they are more of a hardcore gamer and that is the type of player they are trying to cater to?
Also if they care enough to register Xfire + Darkfall then they probably care enough to hype the game and be excited, I'd be alarmed if this group showed losses.
Debateable... merely pointing out that the people who are bothering to register with XFire probably have a different thought process than your casual gamer. I would probably be alarmed that "hardcore" gamers are leaving, since this is labeled as a "hardcore" game. However as was mentioned previously, this game would have to experience declining play time for a couple of months in a row for it to mean that people are actually leaving the game.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_(statistics)
X-fire numbers are flawed though.
You can't draw a conclusion based on a subset of users.
You can't pull statitcis based on a trends of a group of users. It's flawed.
I'm having trouble articulating thoughts today.
But.. here we go.
5% of bald men have toupees..
therefor 5% of men have toupees??
5% of Darkfall players have X-fire. if that 5% quits, then I guess Darkfall is empty.. correct..
hmm someone wasn't listening in maths class...
the entire mathematical field of statistical theory is based around the practise of sampling a subset of a population. GG. Btw, the example you gave doesn't even have anything to do with statistics.
try reading this: www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampstat.htm
Agreed!
if 5% of darkfall players have xfire there is an EQUAL Chance that the ones who have Xfire will quit as the ones who DONT have xfire will quit, hence they are an accurate random sampling.
Making that 5% of its population an accurate representation of the whole pie.
Yay I listened in math!
Although one could argue that the one's who bother to set up an Xfire are usually a little more hardcore than your average player, so I don't think you can count it as a truely "random" sampling.
Probably, but then woudn't it be MORE alarming if the Xfire players quit? Since they are more of a hardcore gamer and that is the type of player they are trying to cater to?
Also if they care enough to register Xfire + Darkfall then they probably care enough to hype the game and be excited, I'd be alarmed if this group showed losses.
Debateable... merely pointing out that the people who are bothering to register with XFire probably have a different thought process than your casual gamer. I would probably be alarmed that "hardcore" gamers are leaving, since this is labeled as a "hardcore" game. However as was mentioned previously, this game would have to experience declining play time for a couple of months in a row for it to mean that people are actually leaving the game.
This would normally be true if there was a large player base, which this game does not have. A couple months decline would basically mean nobody left at all.