(since Runescape is a browser game XFire cant acknoledge it ofc)
This bit made me laugh from MMOData:
"I estimated Aion Asia numbers on 2,5m as NCSoft does not want to confirm the 3,5m and they do not release subscription numbers anymore in their quarterly reports."
Yea... very reliable. Sorry, but I was talking about official data. NSoft released the sales figure earlier (somewhere around 700 or 800k or something like that). That is the only official thing we can take for certain. Until the Xfire numbers get stable for Aion, it's too early to use that as an indicator of subs.
For now, EvE remains the second most popular MMO in the Western market. When we get a subs number from Asia (a sub is an account that has been paid and played for in the last 30 days), then we can have a better idea of of where we stand.
Of course, because simply the Aion fans can't produce ANY evidence of official subscriptions for Aion. Not in the East and certainly not in the West.
1. NCoft organised a BIG press conference a few days before the Aion West launch, announcing they would go for that second place in western MMO land.
2. Clearly the target was set as only few months before the makers of EVE announced they had 300K subscriptions.
3. We are now 10 weeks after the launch of Aion West .... and not even a communication of NCSoft concerning subscriptions.
4. Surely with a sign that 65% of XFire players already no longer play the game (coming from 81K playing time to 28K playing time on Xfire), Aion is not holding its players in the first 2 months after launch. And as Aion is SOLD through Xfire (and not games like WOW, EVE, WAR), the top Xfire charts between these games are worthless these days for Aion.
5. Surely with a .... 88th place for Aion today on amazon.com for .... PC(!!!) games Aion is dead on dealer shelves. You really have to track this game now DEEP into those selling charts.
So by lack of ANY official subscription numbers of NCsoft , Aion West clearly failed to obtain those 301 K+ subscribers to beat EVE.
Case solved.:
EVE is still by far the 2nd most played MMO in the western (lucrative subs) market.
-----------
Oh and btw. Blizzard confirmed officialy its 11.5 M and 11.6 M player base in 2009, TWICE this year. In May on their first Q report of 2009, quoting Mark Morhaim himself in the official transcript of the press conference and a second time in June with the presentattion of the 2010 Guiness book of records presentation.
That's what makes the difference between confirmed official AUDITED WESTERN stock rated company reports and press conferences and a Korean firm that drives on rumoured free internet café playing sessions.
Here is what NCsoft said in little text when they "announced those famous Aion box sales" ...
"The financial results for 3Q of 2009 have been prepared on an un-audited basis,and may be subject to change during independent auditing process.
Some of the information and data in the material have been prepared based on assumptions. (sic)
There can be no assurance that the assumptions used by NCSOFT are correct and even if they are (sic)..., that the effect of such assumptions on NCSOFT’s business and results of operations will be as projected.
Therefore, NCSOFT will not be responsible for individual investment decisions based solely on this material.
------ > I think if the obove text was to be published in a New York stock rated company report, they would have the Feds on their necks within 14 days for spreading false information...
That's the difference between western stock rated companies and Eastern ones....
Sounds to me like Xfire is pretty unreliable as a source for data. Any statistical database that can have its numbers artificially modified should probably not be used as a source for statistical valuation. The point that is constantly being made that the data on Xfire is false on Aion proves it is not a credible source. And just about any tredning or assumptions based off of known bad data makes those trends and assumptions bad as well.
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
Aion p2p and for free to play runescape more than likely, but if you dont consider runescape a free game than i would say maple story, rom or altantica might get it.
I'm sorry but why should we care? is this a pissing contest? who cares what is #2, 3, 4......what matters, more, is if you enjoy the game. If you are just wanting to make sure your game will not shut down anytime soon then yes that does matter. I hate Darkfall but I'm not going to laugh that is not #2 nor will I tell people to not play it. "Whatever works"...you like what you like. What saddens me the most is the immature responses are coming from adults. Does your life have purpose knowing the rankings or is it you just want to make sure your MMO will survive ?
Yes, seems like the pissing contest moved from the 1st place to 2nd place. Some people have to play the most popular game it seems, regardless on whether they enjoy it or not.
First of all, they never claimed that they achieved 2nd place, let alone brag about it. They stated that they aim for it, big difference.
Secondly, I hope you realise that you are as much to blame as the people that started the 3.5M rumour. Your constant repeating of this number only adds up to its circulation, at least on this site. Bottom line, if you don't believe it to be true, stop advertising it.
Third, their financial records are their own. They operate outside the US, hence are not governed by the same restrictions like other US firms. They are probably governed by different restrictions however. In any case, Turbine hasn't released any subscription numbers, as far as I know, and noone jumped onto their necks to blame them for that. It's their prerogative to disclose or not any numbers.
Lastly, you should at some point remove the tinfoil hat regarding the xfire numbers and finally admit that xfire can predict trends (with some level of inaccuracy), but not absolute numbers. You (and others) just don't have the data necessary to make any meaningful comparison between the games represented in xfire stats, exactly because we don't know the percentage of the population of each MMO that uses xfire. If we knew that number, it wouldn't make any difference if all Aion copies sold were originated from xfire, because in that case the percentage would be 100%. Now you (and others) don't know that percentage and the early assumption that all MMOs share the same percentage in xfire statistics was already proven wrong, just by looking at Aion alone.
You pretty much agree with me that they never bragged about 2nd place, as you originally stated. They haven't produced the numbers to verify that they achieved that goal, which is irrelevant to what you claimed. ie that they bragged about 2nd place.
I hope you realise that you are the only one parroting the 3.5M number the past few weeks. If you don't want that number used, stop advertising it yourself. Negative publicity is still publicity.
If you are correct and their financial records are not their own, they will produce them or face whatever consequences under Korean law.
xfire never showed absolute numbers. It was a wild assumption that the absolute numbers were correct because the percentage of MMO gamers using xfire were somewhat similar. For example, if 2% of EVE players and 1% of WoW players and 3% of LOTRO players were using xfire, it would be easy to assume that all percentages were 2%, since you more or less only had the EVE numbers to do a very rudimentary cross-check. Now, lets say that Aion percentage of xfire users are 10% instead of the 1-3% I mentioned earlier. It's easy to see how the double and triple percentage can throw all the previous calculations totally off. It's not that the xfire started becoming inaccurate, it always was. It's just clearer to see these days.
(All the percentages I used above are made up and for example purposes only).
Comments
This bit made me laugh from MMOData:
"I estimated Aion Asia numbers on 2,5m as NCSoft does not want to confirm the 3,5m and they do not release subscription numbers anymore in their quarterly reports."
Yea... very reliable. Sorry, but I was talking about official data. NSoft released the sales figure earlier (somewhere around 700 or 800k or something like that). That is the only official thing we can take for certain. Until the Xfire numbers get stable for Aion, it's too early to use that as an indicator of subs.
For now, EvE remains the second most popular MMO in the Western market. When we get a subs number from Asia (a sub is an account that has been paid and played for in the last 30 days), then we can have a better idea of of where we stand.
Of course, because simply the Aion fans can't produce ANY evidence of official subscriptions for Aion. Not in the East and certainly not in the West.
1. NCoft organised a BIG press conference a few days before the Aion West launch, announcing they would go for that second place in western MMO land.
2. Clearly the target was set as only few months before the makers of EVE announced they had 300K subscriptions.
3. We are now 10 weeks after the launch of Aion West .... and not even a communication of NCSoft concerning subscriptions.
4. Surely with a sign that 65% of XFire players already no longer play the game (coming from 81K playing time to 28K playing time on Xfire), Aion is not holding its players in the first 2 months after launch. And as Aion is SOLD through Xfire (and not games like WOW, EVE, WAR), the top Xfire charts between these games are worthless these days for Aion.
5. Surely with a .... 88th place for Aion today on amazon.com for .... PC(!!!) games Aion is dead on dealer shelves. You really have to track this game now DEEP into those selling charts.
So by lack of ANY official subscription numbers of NCsoft , Aion West clearly failed to obtain those 301 K+ subscribers to beat EVE.
Case solved.:
EVE is still by far the 2nd most played MMO in the western (lucrative subs) market.
-----------
Oh and btw. Blizzard confirmed officialy its 11.5 M and 11.6 M player base in 2009, TWICE this year. In May on their first Q report of 2009, quoting Mark Morhaim himself in the official transcript of the press conference and a second time in June with the presentattion of the 2010 Guiness book of records presentation.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/136299-activision-blizzard-q1-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=6 (can be downloaded in audio on the Actvision Blizzard website too).
That's what makes the difference between confirmed official AUDITED WESTERN stock rated company reports and press conferences and a Korean firm that drives on rumoured free internet café playing sessions.
Here is what NCsoft said in little text when they "announced those famous Aion box sales" ...
"The financial results for 3Q of 2009 have been prepared on an un-audited basis,and may be subject to change during independent auditing process.
Some of the information and data in the material have been prepared based on assumptions. (sic)
There can be no assurance that the assumptions used by NCSOFT are correct and even if they are (sic)..., that the effect of such assumptions on NCSOFT’s business and results of operations will be as projected.
Therefore, NCSOFT will not be responsible for individual investment decisions based solely on this material.
? Consolidated subsidiaries : NC Interactive(100%), NC Europe(100%), NC Japan(60%), NC Taiwan(85%).
2"
----
------ > I think if the obove text was to be published in a New York stock rated company report, they would have the Feds on their necks within 14 days for spreading false information...
That's the difference between western stock rated companies and Eastern ones....
Sounds to me like Xfire is pretty unreliable as a source for data. Any statistical database that can have its numbers artificially modified should probably not be used as a source for statistical valuation. The point that is constantly being made that the data on Xfire is false on Aion proves it is not a credible source. And just about any tredning or assumptions based off of known bad data makes those trends and assumptions bad as well.
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
Aion p2p and for free to play runescape more than likely, but if you dont consider runescape a free game than i would say maple story, rom or altantica might get it.
I highly doubt aion anymore, doesnt even seem very crowded on the servers, maybe eve, from what ive been hearing :P
I'm sorry but why should we care? is this a pissing contest? who cares what is #2, 3, 4......what matters, more, is if you enjoy the game. If you are just wanting to make sure your game will not shut down anytime soon then yes that does matter. I hate Darkfall but I'm not going to laugh that is not #2 nor will I tell people to not play it. "Whatever works"...you like what you like. What saddens me the most is the immature responses are coming from adults. Does your life have purpose knowing the rankings or is it you just want to make sure your MMO will survive ?
Yes, seems like the pissing contest moved from the 1st place to 2nd place. Some people have to play the most popular game it seems, regardless on whether they enjoy it or not.
You're assuming too much I'm afraid.
First of all, they never claimed that they achieved 2nd place, let alone brag about it. They stated that they aim for it, big difference.
Secondly, I hope you realise that you are as much to blame as the people that started the 3.5M rumour. Your constant repeating of this number only adds up to its circulation, at least on this site. Bottom line, if you don't believe it to be true, stop advertising it.
Third, their financial records are their own. They operate outside the US, hence are not governed by the same restrictions like other US firms. They are probably governed by different restrictions however. In any case, Turbine hasn't released any subscription numbers, as far as I know, and noone jumped onto their necks to blame them for that. It's their prerogative to disclose or not any numbers.
Lastly, you should at some point remove the tinfoil hat regarding the xfire numbers and finally admit that xfire can predict trends (with some level of inaccuracy), but not absolute numbers. You (and others) just don't have the data necessary to make any meaningful comparison between the games represented in xfire stats, exactly because we don't know the percentage of the population of each MMO that uses xfire. If we knew that number, it wouldn't make any difference if all Aion copies sold were originated from xfire, because in that case the percentage would be 100%. Now you (and others) don't know that percentage and the early assumption that all MMOs share the same percentage in xfire statistics was already proven wrong, just by looking at Aion alone.
(All the percentages I used above are made up and for example purposes only).