Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
One Month In: A Look at the Numbers
Shiymmas
Member UncommonPosts: 587
The game has been out now (up and running and available for purchase) for a month. So where does it stand?
I thought it'd be a reasonable time to look at how the game has done, sales-wise. I'd also like to know if there's any reasonable figures for the current population although I know it's too early to see any true information about player retention due to the free 60 days now. In spite of that, it should be easy to see any trends that have developed since launch and perhaps get an idea of what retention may be like as players finish their free time.
Week |
Americas |
Japan |
EMEAA |
Worldwide |
Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
223,194 |
N/A |
23,918 |
247,112 |
247,112 |
2 |
50,897 |
N/A |
10,419 |
61,316 |
308,428 |
3 |
20,547 |
N/A |
4,936 |
25,483 |
333,911 |
4 |
15,998 |
N/A |
2,158 |
18,156 |
352,067 |
Ten Week Totals: |
310,636 |
0 |
41,431 |
352,067 |
|
Lifetime Totals: |
310,636 |
0 |
41,431 |
352,067 |
Source: VGChartz Final Fantasy XIV Online (PC) Sales
While I find it a bit odd that the numbers for Japan still aren't listed - and if anyone has an alternate source for those that'd be great - VGChartz is showing a fairly sharp decline in sales from pre-order to launch. Following the two prior links, and watching the game's trends from one month to release, you can see steady growth until launch ranging from 8k~ pre-orders to over 23k~ the week of pre-release for America. Given there was no worldwide pre-order chart, tracking the worldwide numbers from launch to now shows that sales have fallen from over 61k~ in the game's first week down to barely 18k~ in the past week, with this week's numbers soon to update this weekend.
If there was a reasonably reliable estimate on the current active population, it'd be fairly easy to get an idea of retention rates thus far which would give a better overall picture of how people are receiving the game.
Disclaimer: For anyone wondering why; out of curiousity and interest, not for troll's sake.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Oscar Wilde
Comments
In related news, only 12 topics have been posted to in this forum in the last 24 hours.
Thanks OP, its interesting and useful to see the actual data plotted. To make this plot more meaningful, perhaps you could plot this with similar data for other games during their launch, I would be very curious to see how they compare. If you do the comparisons, just compare total sales for each game, dont break it down by region.
tl;dr Compare data with the other big name MMOs during their launch please.
Those numbers are correct but for accuracy purposes you need to put them in context with the week dates. The first week shown ends on September 25th (3 days after CE launch), which is all preorder sales. The second week shown ends on October 2nd (1 day after Standard Launch), and again is all prelaunch for the general public (not CE). The last two weeks shown are the only ones that show the actual trend after launch.
Yes, we do have 4 weeks of data there, but it is not four 4 weeks of data for after public launch yet, only the last 2 weeks show sales AFTER launch. If you look at those two alone you see 25k and 18k increases - still a ~25% decrease, but there arent' enough data points to determine any type of trend. If the report that comes out tomorrow (10/23) shows an additional ~25% decline in sales then we might be able to show a start of a trend. But you can't really look at only two data points and call it a trend yet. Also, you have to take into account that there are 60 days of free play on this game, plus all the buddy keys (and extensions on those) to take into account as well.
This is good data yes, just a bit early to call anything on. Give it at least two more weeks of data to get a better idea, six to eight weeks if you want an accurate picture without buddy keys and free/trial time included. And I also would love to see JP numbers included in this.
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
It would be interesting to see Japan's influence. At the same time, another AAA mmorpg within the past 6 years that still can't boast that their doing any better than the others in the past 6 years, save Aion. And still doesnt have enough umph to show that a well made AAA pve-centric mmo can do any better than a pvevp-centric mmo by an Indie studio like CCP.
Yeah, I guess I should've been clearer that the 8k-23k per week numbers were for pre-order, but it's mentioned in there nevertheless. The chart itself merely shows that from the week of release to the second week (after the full release) the game sold more than 61k units. The following week after release saw a pretty large dip from that 61k~ to 25.5k, or about a 45%~ drop. Pre-orders included in those numbers or not; that's a pretty steep decline in interest from the week before launch to post-release.
As I said in the post, I was wanting to compare the sales numbers so far against a reliable active player count estimate. The biggest problem with gaining any degree of accuracy with those would be the buddy keys, which you mentioned.
That said, I figure that there could still be some estimations made about how good their retention is, in spite of the 60 free days. People that were going to quit would likely still quit, regardless of free time given. Either way, this week's numbers should be up in the next couple days, and in the meantime, we still need an accurate player count.
On top of that, I'm not really concerned with whether or not people are still buying the game. The point of the thread is to determine how many folks stay after they buy the box. It'd be nice to have the numbers to see not only how many people remain interested, but how well retention goes over time which would illustrate how good of a job SE is doing to fix the problems players have with the game. If we had that kind of info, new people or those interested would be more capable of making an informed decision on when (and if) they should buy the game. So don't worry Kaocan, no underlying attempts to diss FFXIV here. :P
Oh, and I tried to find another MMO release to compare to, but I can't seem to find any that have been tracked by VGChartz. In fact, going back on their sales chart by a year shows no PC games listed at all, so I'd assume they've only recently (the past few months or more) begun tracking PC games. In fact, PC isn't even listed under their hardware tools. Not sure on other reliable sales tracking sites, but anyone's welcome to link other resources, should they have any.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Oscar Wilde
Looks similar to numbers posted a few weeks ago after the standard edition was launched. Anyways its all well and good. We all knew initial sales would do all right, but the numbers I am curious about are the resubs. But we wont see those til Dec possibly Jan.
There is nothing remarkable about this, most games sell propotionately more copies in the first week than the subsiquent following weeks.
Mne eto nado kak zuby v zadnitse.
Well here's something interesting I've just found. The FF XIV Server Population over the month of October. Need I say more:
Well the Numbers say this far, that is does have a typical fall in numbers after start for a MMORPG. Consider the Freeplaycards and other stuff. I guess really useful numbers are first tehre after the 60 days now.
Aside of that I have maybe overlooked this but are these numbers taken at a certain daypoint or are this the numbers about how many people logged in at the statistical middle from all over the day?
It is mainly curiosity in that acse since I know that Besaid does have low times with only 1400 people around and than others that are higher than this. Not to mention that over different timezones different people play.
Interesting from all accounts I was lead to believe it was doing terribly. Hmm I actually want to pick this up since I played FFXI.
Lindblum -1 (I just canceled my account)
In general... It's sad to see a big-time corp like SE make a product that's sold in such low numbers, and see the population decline so fast as well. Each char lost per server is a canceled account, since the new SE account system cancels your whole account immediately (I can't play anymore though I have till december 15th for my free 60-days - not that I do care...).
Lets be honest. You sell only 435K copies of a game, and within a month 70K players (more than 15%) has canceled their account already. I think the rest of the players will wait till their 2nd month is over before they make the choice to stick with it or cancel as well.
IMO, SE messed up big-time with their new FF game
Most likely believed their brand was so fabulous that the gaming public will take anything w/ the Final Fantasy stamp. Unlike other MMO which have been FAIL upon release, this company was not in threat of going under. They could've easily delayed launch.
These numbers are fine. Every game goes through this trend. First is the initial surge, and then a steady decline until the next big patch, where theres a sudden surge, and then a steady decline until the next big patch. See a pattern?
Seconded.
A game's biggest sales happen before launch day, you can look up most games on VGChartz and see a similar pattern, even amongst blockbusters.
As for the declining server populations, it's quite natural for people who buy a game to get bored of it and move on after awhile, and this applies even to MMORPGs, despite their retention mechanics.
If anything, I'm rather encouraged at the numbers I see here. The game is still selling, well after the initial release-day hype, and retention has been higher than I'd expect to see from a game that nobody enjoys.
WoW did not.
EVE did not.
Lineage did not.
....Tired of people making excuses for poorly managed MMOs. How many more charts, reviews, threads, blogs, or other forms of evidence has to be linked before they admit that the game should be dropped and either put back in development or cancelled all together.
You need to be more specific.
WoW was a runaway blockbuster that no one has been able to replicate, comparing any other game to it is ridiculous.
EVE Online most certainly was at least as dismal as Final Fantasy XIV at release, largely being panned as lousy "spreadsheets in space." It didn't really catch on until years after release, and then largely amongst a rather peculiar crowd.
Lineage... seriously, you're holding up that 1998 grind as a sign of what a good MMORPG looks like? It wasn't even released here until several years after it was in South Korea and outlying areas, and much of its subscription numbers are bolstered by cyber-cafe subscriptions.
Basically, you've completely lost sight of the details behind every instance of what you mentioned here.
Interesting point & it's definitely a more significant number. Once the "free time" runs out & all playing players must be on a subscription .... those numbers would be more indicative of where the game stands.
What exactly is the content in FFXIV besides going out in the world and grinding mobs to rank up or grinding nodes to level your crafting? FFXIV is just as much a grind if not far greater than Lineage was. Now you will go on to tell me about guildleves and the storyline arc.... I had more fun in AoC on tortage... Enough said.
As for EVE yes it was not popular and it still is not popular it is just a solid MMO and arguable the most well maintained.
What exactly is the content of any MMO besides going out in the world and grinding mobs (or quests) to rank up or grinding nodes to level you "gathering". Its not just ffxiv sunshine, you can put any MMO ever made in the category of a grind so please find a better excuss. I am glad you had more fun in AoC, FFXIV is not for everyone, you like babied and spoon feed mmo's fine... enough said.
EvE wasnt so well maintained in its early days now was it. Just like the majarity of all mmo's released.
FFXIV is not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but there is a solid foundation of a game for SE to work with. Based off their reputation of what they did with FFXI, I know that FFXIV will be a polished gem in 6 month to a year, and thats when FFXIV will take off. The people who stuck it out and leveled multiple classes, with no rush to do anything will be the ones rewarded in the end with a strong character.
Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore)
Now Playing: N/A
Worst MMO: FFXIV
Favorite MMO: FFXI
And in 6 months to a year, more superior and more popular MMOs (Guild Wars 2 and Star Wars: TOR) would have arrived. Between those 2 games alone, there wouldn't really be that many people in the Western world, reading to pick up FF XIV when it finally becomes more than just a 2nd job.
Also when you're gloating about; down the line, when FF XIV finally becomes a good game and you'll have a top-level character I started wondering... "What is the End Game of FF XIV?" I mean once you finished the story quest and have a max-leveled character, what is there to do that's worth doing? The game has no PvP, no real dungeon raids, nothing to keep players subscribed for months. And I just don't see a miracle patch happening, which would magically add a tonne of end game content to the game.
This goes back to that chart I showed earlier, which portrayed the continual decline in the server population. Because even people who enjoy the game may desert it when they realize, there's not much else to do.
There are never more than 40k online in all the servers.
It's a joke,population on besaid dropped from 3k to 1,3k.
The thing your forgetting is FFXIV is not, nor will ever be a mainstream MMO. SW:TOR will have virtually no impact on FFXIV. The people looking forward to that game most likely have already left ffxiv, or just plain flat playing ffxiv to kill the time, and thats fine. But to think ToR will have a major impact on FFXIV is mistaken.
GWII is the one that poses the greatest threat to FFXIV. But guess what, when GWII launches its going to go through the same crap EVERY mmo goes through. Youll have people pick it up, play for awhile and go back to wherever they came from, especially since its "advertised" as no sub.
Your chat is the typical chart for every mmo at launch. SWtor, GWII will suffer the same fate. Youll see the same curve. The interesting part comes 6months to a year down the road. MMO launches are always predictable.
FFXIV will never reach 1 mil subs, in its prime it will hit 500-600k and thats it. Thats not a bad thing either.
Whats there to do in end-game, the answer right now is nothing. Like I have said before the game as stands is just a base structure. If you have played FFXI's end-game you know what SE is capable of, thats why I say 6 months to a year will be when there starts to be a lot of options on what to do. As the game stands right now it we have half a game. The first expansion will be when the game gets really interesting. Again this isnt your typical mmo, grind quests to cap in less than a month, just to raid several end game dungeons for another month just to move on to the next mmo 3 months after launch.
Like I said the people who stick around and level multiple classes will build a strong character, and be rewarded for it later. I also understand the every gamer doesnt think they should have to do this, and guess what they dont. But they can also wait for the first expansion when the full game gets here, but theres no grounds to cry and moan when someone has invested 6month+ in a game is a lot more powerfull than someone with 2 months.
Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore)
Now Playing: N/A
Worst MMO: FFXIV
Favorite MMO: FFXI
I never saw it at 3k, 2.6k was a good weekend. 1.6k was the typical weekday.
That said, there is another good reason for the server population to drop aside from not liking the game right now: We're pretty much out of content at this point.
We do know that more content is on the way throughout November with a megapatch planned every 3 months to introduce more content, but sitting here on the ground floor right now, we've basically got these things to do:
Main quest at rank 1, 10, 15, (maybe 20 and 25)? You can probably finish each one inside an hour.
Local and Regional Guildleves.... pretty small selection right now, you'll likely be doing some of the same guildleves every 36 hours, can't say that's a very sustaining activity.
Crafting/gathering parts for crafting. Putting different stuff together is the greater bulk of the variety of activities the game offers, really.
Go explore and kill stuff. Meh, there's not a whole lot to explore right now, truth be told, a lot of the content is placeholders.
So, basically, even if you like the game, after you've exhausted the above, it's not a bad idea to go on haitus a bit while the developers flesh things out.
The assumptions and comparisons in your answer are insane.
"But to think ToR will have a major impact on FFXIV is mistaken."
==> this game will have a major impact on every mmo out there, no exceptions.
"But guess what, when GWII launches its going to go through the same crap EVERY mmo goes through. "
==> Pure speculation. And we are talking FFXIV here so lets compare it to that. FFXIV was an absuluteley unfinished game at release (still is), GW2 will be released when it's finished. This is a complete opposite release phylosophy.
While GW2 may go through crap at release as all MMO's do, it will in no way be the same crap as FFXIV is going through now.
"in its prime it will hit 500-600k and thats it."
==> speculation again.
Like the poster above you said. FFXIV is in a pickle. Two (not to say more because Rift and Tera are coming to) major releases coming up and they will give FFXIV a run for its money. This situation is different from the FFXI days where there was allmost no competition.
I think the upcoming "new releases" will have an effect on this game. Regardless of the reason why the population is dropping, when a couple of new games hit release they will surely grab the attention of FFIV players who are still waiting for fixes and content. Perhaps not as great as the current drop is reporting but, enough to bring the population down to a...scary low. If SE could have fixed the problems reported and known in OB they would have but I would tend to agree with the professional reviewers when they indicate that a year or more will be needed to bring this game to...functionable state.