2011 Predictions

Razephon

 

Ok so I figured I would start one of these threads since everybody LOVES speculating on this forum so much!

Here are my Predictions for 2011:

 

TERA - Ok well currently I'm looking forward to this MMO the most. My main concerns are the lack of information on PvP and the general depth of it. We havent really seen much of Endgame content either, just heard bits and pieces. Then again it doesnt have a set release date (NA/EU). But from what I've seen of TERA the game looks amazing and is overflowing with potential. If TERA gets released in the West in Q1, it could be looking at a subscription base 500k+. Which given todays standards is still very good. Over time, depending on whether PvP seems worthwhile and they have a steady influx of pve content this game will continue to prosper.

GW2 - Well if you asked me a few months back I'd say GW2 is the most anticipated game for me. But chances are it wont see the light of day till the end of 2011. Its still just too early in its lifecycle. If I'm right, Arenanet will make sure this game gets all the polish it needs. If it releases at the right time, it could devastate the MMO Market...POTENTIALLY. This game stinks of so much evolution its silly. There are still a lot of questions to be answered about GW2. People are particularly concerned about how they will manage on their non-subscription based pricing model. If they release content at a more frequent rate than GW1 (they'll most likely put out expansions too) then this could be a very big success. The PvP HAS to be very deep since thats what a lot of the Core GW community spent its time on.

Rift - Well the concept is great, the class customization system seems excellent but the over package...hmm. From what I've seen the game looks good, but is lacking in polish. If this game releases too soon it'll just be another 'Under the Carpet' MMO with barely 200k subs at launch, with a sharp decline. 

DCUO - This game is a BIG IP. So on that merit its already got a good base. The combat is fast paced and fresh. Other than that, it seems relatively similar to COX. Its lacking a bit in certain areas, but has a lot of potential. All the story and art assets are there. Its just the execution of the game that will make or break its release. I predict a subscription base of 300k at best. Sorry, Marvel is bigger.

SW:TOR - Yes well this is supposed to be one of those OMFG BEST MMO EVAR games but somehow I dont think so. I think it will sell exactly like Bioware games sell. Lots of people will buy it. As far as subscriptions go though, it really depends on if there is much of an endgame. Additionally a lot of people (coming from outside MMOs) will just play for the story, max cap and quit. Its a shame MMO companies struggle so much at the concept of 'End game'. Anyways, I see this game doing very well for the first 3 months. Depending on what content is added then, it could make or break this game's future. 

TSW - Not too many people know about this game. Its still in the areas of grey and isnt particularly widely publicised. Last year news spread about it like wildfire and people were ooh'd and aaah'd at the CG trailer. The idea behind the game is very interesting. However the more I see of its execution, the more I doubt this game's potential. Remember, this is Failcom! Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Needless to say, small subscriber base...if this comes out in 2011.

WoW:Cataclysm - Well the content is most certainly there and I think this will keep WoW fans tied over for some time. Sure everyones quitting wow. But people go back and forth and somehow their overall playerbase doesn't take such a big hit after all. The real question now I suppose is where does WoW go from here. They seem to have covered the majority of existing lore there already was. The engine is really very old and can't even begin to compare against todays MMOs. Needless to say I can guarantee WoW's player base won't see too big of a hit for the first half of this year.

Note: I've left out things like Blade & Soul n whatever else that may come. Mainly because its just been to quiet on their respective fronts. I'll leave it open to people who wanna mention any rogue MMO that could see a surprising rise to victory in 2011.

So what are your predictions?

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KorPhaeron

GW2 will become the one and only serious competitor WoW will ever have.

 

SWToR will be rather bland but will have a huge follower base simply due to the IP...even tho plenty will slowly leave the game after a time. I see it as a tremendous blockbuster hit initially, fading away as time goes by, but always keeping more than decent numbers.

 

TERA will be the confirmation that korean MMO development has been stagnated since 2003 and deserves to die, or at the bare minimum to stay on their side of the frontier. they keep releasing the same unoriginal grindy and boring time sinks aplenty, then wrap up some 1-decade-old gameplay mechanics, add the best eyecandy gfx that this hardware generation allows for (but always keeping it unbearably animu crap, and even somewhat childish), and call it a game.

then they add some more grind and time sinks....just in case the western market could somehow stomach it.

 

RIFT is trying to pull a WoW, without WoW's polish, funding, quality and masses' recognition. We all know how that will end. Or we all should, apparently some blind fanboys still believe you can try to outWoW WoW and dont go bankrupt in the process...

 

DCUO might succeed at carving a niche. how big it becomes will ultimately depend on how warmly it is welcomed in the PS3 market.

arieste

Originally posted by Razephon

 

Ok so I figured I would start one of these threads since everybody LOVES speculating on this forum so much!

Here are my Predictions for 2011:

 

TERA - assuming they manage a decent launch, i predict this will be successful in asia, will little impact in north america.  those that'll like it, will like it a lot, most MMO players will be totally turned off by the FPS combat.

GW2 - when things seem too good to be true, they usually are.  this game seems to be "the next evolution" and to have everything a AAA MMO has and to be giving it away for free.  What's not to like?  My prediction is that there is something missing in this game that's not readily apparent until played.  I expect it will sell really well in boxes but that those that want a "true MMO" will still be paying a sub fee for something else.

Rift - I'm a bit biased since I've actually played the beta, so I actually know factual stuff about Rift.  A lot depends on whether changers are made to the combat.  THe game is nearly flawless technically and will obviously have a clean launch.  I expect it'll pick up a lot of people at the start and get solid reviews as it is idiot-proof and quite fun.  At the moment it lacks depth and the combat is weak, I expect that'll become apparent after a month or two unless it's addressed.  I expect many people will buy this - if only to tide them over until the end of the year.

DCUO - I expect this to be the next Star Trek Online.  (in other words - big, licensed dud)

SW:TOR - If it manages to release in 2011, i expect that it'll set new records for box sales.  I expect that most capable MMO games will be done with the game in a month and looking for something else.  And YES, i have read about the 200 hours.  And no, i don't believe it.   Will be thrilled if it proves me wrong as I do plan to buy it.

TSW - This is the next game i'm truly excited about.   funcom, the setting.  I predict it won't come out in 2011.  

WoW:Cataclysm - I predict this will come in 2010 and therefore shouldn't be on the 2011 list.

So what are your predictions?

above.