XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground.
How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?
Note that this DOES NOT mean there are less people playing, but that there are less hours being logged by all people using XFire. XFire is a bit of a joke anyhow, and with more competition in their space than before, gaming populations are split across other tools and their data cannot be considered as conclusive as it did in the past.
That said, yes I am a fan of Rift and I too am playing less this month than last month. However, I am still playing and still subscribed, which is the more important metric. I do not use Xfire.
What I want to know is where are the 2 million subs(let alone 4 million!) people predicted for this game before it launched. Many of us predicted that within 6 months of launch this game would have maybe 50k-75k subscribers and we were called haters. We're not haters...we just call it like we see it.
I don't know of a single person that thought Rift would get 2 million or 4 million subs.
I don't even know of a single person that thought Rift would get 1 million.
Most guesses were around 300k and I thought it was reasonable guess myself.
Just go back and look through the old Rift post prior to releae. There were many people making these predictions.
No there wasn't. Find me one if you can:)
I remember very clearly about the predictions of doom and gloom people had about this game at launch. I'm kind of surprised you'd bring this topic up actually.
Points below. LOL! There are more I can easily drudge up if you like.
Originally posted by Riftsoldier
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
What I want to know is where are the 2 million subs(let alone 4 million!) people predicted for this game before it launched. Many of us predicted that within 6 months of launch this game would have maybe 50k-75k subscribers and we were called haters. We're not haters...we just call it like we see it.
I don't know of a single person that thought Rift would get 2 million or 4 million subs.
I don't even know of a single person that thought Rift would get 1 million.
Most guesses were around 300k and I thought it was reasonable guess myself.
Just go back and look through the old Rift post prior to releae. There were many people making these predictions.
No there wasn't. Find me one if you can:)
I remember very clearly about the predictions of doom and gloom people had about this game at launch. I'm kind of surprised you'd bring this topic up actually.
Points below. LOL! There are more I can easily drudge up if you like.
Originally posted by Riftsoldier
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums, but its lunch time so meh) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
Don't play RIFT; don't have any interest in it. That said, I strongly believe this is the new normal. When all you had was EQ, DAoC, and AC, the market was pretty small, players trickled in over time. Today, at launch, you've got a few hundred thousand people banging on your door if your game is high profile. Rather than players coming in over a very long period of time you've got everyone front loaded. Of course there is a going to be a huge spike then a drop.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
Who cares? If the game is fun and you like playing it, keep playing it. Dispite if the numbers are dropping (WHICH I DOUBT) it is still one of the best games out right now.
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums, but its lunch time so meh) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
Oh look! Someone from the music industry! Make sure when something is flagged to be popular your module autogenerates several MySpace and Facebook pages as well.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
EVERY single game that comes out, not just MMOs will have people quit within the first month, that's just how it is. I don't understand why there's so much hate for this game, it's a solid fun game.
What I want to know is where are the 2 million subs(let alone 4 million!) people predicted for this game before it launched. Many of us predicted that within 6 months of launch this game would have maybe 50k-75k subscribers and we were called haters. We're not haters...we just call it like we see it.
I don't know of a single person that thought Rift would get 2 million or 4 million subs.
I don't even know of a single person that thought Rift would get 1 million.
Most guesses were around 300k and I thought it was reasonable guess myself.
Just go back and look through the old Rift post prior to releae. There were many people making these predictions.
No there wasn't. Find me one if you can:)
I remember very clearly about the predictions of doom and gloom people had about this game at launch. I'm kind of surprised you'd bring this topic up actually.
Points below. LOL! There are more I can easily drudge up if you like.
Originally posted by Riftsoldier
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
Thanks for posting that again I was having a hard time finding it lol. 2.5 million he he Rofl. They are lucky to have the base they have now. 2.5 million is never giong to happen. Honestly in 6 months we will be adding this one to the list of aoc, warhammer and the likes.
Points below. LOL! There are more I can easily drudge up if you like.
Originally posted by Riftsoldier
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
Shrug. It's a bit petty to only dug up the most extreme statements from the hundreds of comments people have made. Only proves the point that someone is determined to not use common sense or reason, but is going for sensationalism.
I could dug up extreme statements of haters and critics as well, but it doesn't prove anything about the majority of people that show at least a modicum of sense, it just shows how offbase and farfetched the extreme ends of opinion were.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Thanks for posting that again I was having a hard time finding it lol. 2.5 million he he Rofl. They are lucky to have the base they have now. 2.5 million is never giong to happen. Honestly in 6 months we will be adding this one to the list of aoc, warhammer and the likes.
Yep. So far it has followed WARs numbers. 1+ million copies sold and down ~20% after the first month. Lets see if the second month is much different, believe the drop was around 35% for WAR.
Who cares? If the game is fun and you like playing it, keep playing it. Dispite if the numbers are dropping (WHICH I DOUBT) it is still one of the best games out right now.
Delusional.
Numbers always drop after the "free" month.
How much are they dropping? 25%/month or 10%/month or less.
No numbers given makes it seem like its higher than 10%.
No reason to trust a company that won't give numbers.
If the numbers would go up, it would be good for business to do so.
Silence only points to loss of customers.
Wait a few months, then we'll see.
Most people who quit do so after the 2nd month of recurrent (3rd month after release)
EVERY single game that comes out, not just MMOs will have people quit within the first month, that's just how it is. I don't understand why there's so much hate for this game, it's a solid fun game.
Solid yes. Thats a fact that I can't deny. Fun? I didn't think so and neither do a lot of other people.
Points below. LOL! There are more I can easily drudge up if you like.
Shrug. It's a bit petty to only dug up the most extreme statements from the hundreds of comments people have made. Only proves the point that someone is determined to not use common sense or reason, but is going for sensationalism.
I could dug up extreme statements of haters and critics as well, but it doesn't prove anything about the majority of people that show at least a modicum of sense, it just shows how offbase and farfetched the extreme ends of opinion were.
He called me out, said nobody ever said that this game would have 2 million players and asked me to find just one example. I did. Sorry that bums you out.
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums, but its lunch time so meh) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
What does ratings have anything to do with it? It's based on sales from what I understand.
Yep. So far it has followed WARs numbers. 1+ million copies sold and down ~20% after the first month. Lets see if the second month is much different, believe the drop was around 35% for WAR.
Iirc the dropoff for WAR was more about 30% after the first month, maybe slightly less.
The dropoff for Rift is more around 10-15%, no more.
We'll see how this continues.
Originally posted by Teala
He called me out, said nobody ever said that this game would have 2 million players and asked me to find just one example. I did. Sorry that bums you out.
Naah, don't worry about it. I just found it petty, arguments only used in the case of sensationalism with an agenda. Nothing more to it, really.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Lets just say xfire might have some truth. Then how does that makes sense considering that Amazon PC game Sales list Rift Game Download as #1 still. Considering that the list is updated HOURLY and Rift has been #1 for over 2 weeks now. I'd say that's a good sign.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums, but its lunch time so meh) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one . If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
Oh look! Someone from the music industry! Make sure when something is flagged to be popular your module autogenerates several MySpace and Facebook pages as well.
Although I do have contacts from some people in that industry, unless they want to pay me to program my way of distributing and making money, I will never program for them. Same thing for gaming. I have clear ideas that ensure good products would work. It is however a risk as public reaction isn't always open to change. It's the retail market. We have something that may, or may not, work. Keeping secret as it does not exist yet.
Its funny to see how this guys make this things up to feel better.
The game had excellent results and scores, all servers continue to be at High on prime times and medium around the day, cities are crawling with people, my guild recruited 20 new members after the first 30 days finish (4th of April around here) and we have around 20 to 25 members logged at the same time daily, and we are a national guild.
In fact, i was trying to buy a physical copy today at a retail store and the clerk told me the game was sold out, the last copy was sold today morning and they are expecting more boxes on the next days...
Im completely surprised by the success this game is having and they say the drop is visible? Where?
Comments
Note that this DOES NOT mean there are less people playing, but that there are less hours being logged by all people using XFire. XFire is a bit of a joke anyhow, and with more competition in their space than before, gaming populations are split across other tools and their data cannot be considered as conclusive as it did in the past.
That said, yes I am a fan of Rift and I too am playing less this month than last month. However, I am still playing and still subscribed, which is the more important metric. I do not use Xfire.
That's slightly optimistic I suppose.
That actually means nothing
I am working on a online shop right now (and shouldnt be on these forums, but its lunch time so meh) and last week I just put online a module that does the following:
1) Fake ratings. So if a 1star rating comes in we can write a few 4-5 star ones.
2) Manually selected "most popular" which is really just a marketting pitch. Buyer says to warehouse that if we get a discount, we put them on there for a week.
3) Tracking by clicks. Just to see where the customer clicks (in fact, I just added the image that was shown that was clicked on in the DB, the rest was there, but shhhh my boss thinks I coded a whole module)
Guess being #1 on Amazon looks a lot like 2) -- Perhaps I should add ranking to my module, gonna see my bosses about that one
. If a site is selling something, never trust it, not even Steam. Its all about money, and nothing else.
I have an extra tinfoil hat if you need one.
0118 999 881 999 119 725... 3
Xfire numbers mean nothing. That being said, I cannot see RIFT having more than 200-300k subscribers in 6 months.
But only time will tell
Don't play RIFT; don't have any interest in it. That said, I strongly believe this is the new normal. When all you had was EQ, DAoC, and AC, the market was pretty small, players trickled in over time. Today, at launch, you've got a few hundred thousand people banging on your door if your game is high profile. Rather than players coming in over a very long period of time you've got everyone front loaded. Of course there is a going to be a huge spike then a drop.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
I think that is a fair prediction. They might even keep up to 500k which still isn't bad but it's not as good as some people thought it would do.
My theme song.
Don't need one, but thanks for the offer.
Who cares? If the game is fun and you like playing it, keep playing it. Dispite if the numbers are dropping (WHICH I DOUBT) it is still one of the best games out right now.
Oh look! Someone from the music industry!
Make sure when something is flagged to be popular your module autogenerates several MySpace and Facebook pages as well.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
people still use xfire? lol
EVERY single game that comes out, not just MMOs will have people quit within the first month, that's just how it is. I don't understand why there's so much hate for this game, it's a solid fun game.
Thanks for posting that again I was having a hard time finding it lol. 2.5 million he he Rofl. They are lucky to have the base they have now. 2.5 million is never giong to happen. Honestly in 6 months we will be adding this one to the list of aoc, warhammer and the likes.
Looks like about only a 4-5% drop according to xfire numbers taken sunday. Not sure where 20% came from. Heres an article i read about it.
http://simple-n-complex.blogspot.com/2011/04/x-fire-game-whats-numbers-there-kenneth.html
Darkfall - Sick
Earthrise - Sick
well that's not really news for us any more it's almost the same drama every MMO had the last i recall was DCUO
Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
Final Fantasy 7
Shrug. It's a bit petty to only dug up the most extreme statements from the hundreds of comments people have made. Only proves the point that someone is determined to not use common sense or reason, but is going for sensationalism.
I could dug up extreme statements of haters and critics as well, but it doesn't prove anything about the majority of people that show at least a modicum of sense, it just shows how offbase and farfetched the extreme ends of opinion were.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Yep. So far it has followed WARs numbers. 1+ million copies sold and down ~20% after the first month. Lets see if the second month is much different, believe the drop was around 35% for WAR.
My gaming blog
Delusional.
Numbers always drop after the "free" month.
How much are they dropping? 25%/month or 10%/month or less.
No numbers given makes it seem like its higher than 10%.
No reason to trust a company that won't give numbers.
If the numbers would go up, it would be good for business to do so.
Silence only points to loss of customers.
Wait a few months, then we'll see.
Most people who quit do so after the 2nd month of recurrent (3rd month after release)
Solid yes. Thats a fact that I can't deny. Fun? I didn't think so and neither do a lot of other people.
My theme song.
He called me out, said nobody ever said that this game would have 2 million players and asked me to find just one example. I did. Sorry that bums you out.
What does ratings have anything to do with it? It's based on sales from what I understand.
Iirc the dropoff for WAR was more about 30% after the first month, maybe slightly less.
The dropoff for Rift is more around 10-15%, no more.
We'll see how this continues.
Naah, don't worry about it. I just found it petty, arguments only used in the case of sensationalism with an agenda. Nothing more to it, really.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Sunday March 13th peak: 28961 hours
Sunday April 10th peak: 22895 hours
(22895-28961)/28961 = -0.21 = 21 %
My gaming blog
Although I do have contacts from some people in that industry, unless they want to pay me to program my way of distributing and making money, I will never program for them. Same thing for gaming. I have clear ideas that ensure good products would work. It is however a risk as public reaction isn't always open to change. It's the retail market. We have something that may, or may not, work. Keeping secret as it does not exist yet.
Its funny to see how this guys make this things up to feel better.
The game had excellent results and scores, all servers continue to be at High on prime times and medium around the day, cities are crawling with people, my guild recruited 20 new members after the first 30 days finish (4th of April around here) and we have around 20 to 25 members logged at the same time daily, and we are a national guild.
In fact, i was trying to buy a physical copy today at a retail store and the clerk told me the game was sold out, the last copy was sold today morning and they are expecting more boxes on the next days...
Im completely surprised by the success this game is having and they say the drop is visible? Where?