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A Turning Point for MMORPGs?
Gudrunix
Member Posts: 149
I can't help but feel that MMORPGs, as a genre, may be reaching a turning point. As in, having recently passed the top and facing a downturn.
I don't think that's the case with other computer gaming genres. FPSs are alive and well thanks to consoles, and RTSs are still going strong thanks at least in part to e-sport and a very dedicated fan base. Likewise, single-player RPGs are doing well with solid new releases and console ports. And Social Networking games and MOBAs (a.k.a. Dota clones) are exploding in popularity. The only genre that has really suffered has been Turn-Based Strategy, but it has been declining for a decade at least.
But not MMORPGs. They are dominated, rather obviously, by one game, but its subscriptions have notably declined, even as other competitors have not taken up the slack. Total subscribers are down no matter how you add it up, and by a significant margin. What's odd is that MMORPGs are the biggest cash generator in the business, but they are also the genre seeing the largest exodus (in terms of absolute numbers of players) right now.
I think the situation may be analogous to that of CCGs in the late 90's. The business was an absolute cash cow, keeping afloat not just several major companies, but even entire chains of retail stores. It was dominated by one company, but while there was a feeling among the business leaders and the top gamers that everything was fine, there was quite a bit of discontent among the general player base. Once players decided to give up the grind of buying hundreds of cards every time a new game or an expansion was released, the genre died. It's hard not to see some comparisons.
I could spend some time diagnosing what I think are the problems, but I will leave it at just one issue: I think MMORPGs, while having tremendous potential, remain bogged down with the "legacy" of the pen-and-paper RPG and single-player computer game RPG formats that preceded them. Those games were not designed to be massively multiplayer, and while the problems inherent with adapting a fundamentally small-player game design to a massively multiplayer format were there all along, developers were able to paper it over with attractive graphics and an incredible amount of game content. Players were willing to overlook serious weaknesses in the game design because of the enormous potential in having true multiplayer games, and were willing to run in the level-and-gear rat race for a few years, but when it became clear that it was a never-ending grind (see above on CCGs), they gave up and decided not to come back.
Am I imaging things, or have we passed the peak? Is it possible to resuscitate MMORPGs, or, like CCGs, are they just a fad that, once it has lost its everyone-else-is-doing-it appeal, never regains it? And what, if anything, would it take to fix it and put the genre back on a growth track?
Comments
MMO's have been facing a down turn since forever.
Sent me an email if you want me to mail you some pizza rolls.
WoW still makes more money than any other game. The most expensive game in history is an MMO that is about to be released.
Remember Old School Ultima Online
That's why I mentioned CCGs - in the late 1990's, Wizards of the Coast was making money hand over fist and virtually every game company was investing huge amounts of money into developing CCGs, but that did not mean their best days were ahead of them - quite the opposite.
I'd say just the opposite. I think the MMO genre is going to be at its very best here very shortly. We'll have a classic themepark game in SWTOR that isn't extremely innovative, but is very well made, has a huge fanbase to support it, and will be putting the "rpg" element back into the MMO. We'll have a themepark game in GW2 that deviates from the norm and is attempting some things that have never been done before. We'll have a MMO in The Secret World that is going to use a skill based, level-free type of character progression system in a modern-day setting. And then we'll have the first attempt at a true sandbox/themepark hybrid in Archeage, that includes some classic themepark ideas but mixes them with all those sandbox features people have been dying to see in a game.
In short, over the next few years there will be an MMO for everyone's tastes, and the boundries are going to be pushed as far as what can be done in these games. I think we're going to see a golden age in MMOs in the next few years.
there is only one way for MMOs, and that's up. we have seen nothing yet.
I don't think fad is a good word for things that are popular for over a decade...
Short answer, mmos are fine.
Another doom and gloom post/poll? MMORPGs, like them or not, are not going away anytime soon. Look at the number slated for release, and the number available. Take a hard look. If these games were NOT making money, they would go away. They are not going away.
I understand many people are not happy with the way MMORPGs are today, nor the direction they think they are going. That does not mean that you (general "you" not, not "you" specific) and your handful of buddies does not constitute a majority.
I think what you are really asking is if people share your opinion, not a forecast for the industry. Personally, I am not overly optimistic about the turn MMORPGs have taken. I will try SW:ToR when it comes out and will more than likely have fun for awhile. I am not too hyped up about any other MMORPGs at the moment, and do not foresee them changing anytime soon to what *I*, personally, seek in a MMORPG.
- Al
Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.- FARGIN_WAR
This right here.
Methinx it will probably be a Golden Age for anyone that can get themselves unstuck from thinking backwards, and escape the clutches of "grumpy old man syndrome". I had it for music and it was a prison. I'm not gonna let myself catch it for gaming...
you know, I have a friend who still says "the internet" is a fad.
The number of computers out there are growing and so is the population but now there are so many games out there they cannot all be populated to the max. The console has become much more popular for gaming as well. I can understand why a company now does not make as much money now with all the competition but the total number of people who play online games will continue to grow obviously.
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Agreed.
I think there have been a number of turning points, primarily:
different subscription models
different platforms
I think first gen MMO gameplay (for good or ill) has passed us by. I feel it's going to be less MMO gaming and more general gaming - whether that's COD / MoH , browser based games or tablet / smart-phone games - with online co-operative / competitive presence where the aim is not a subscription based model but a microtransaction model. Those nickle and dimes add up!
Cash-shops and other such methods to monetize the player-base will be much more egregious because people just don't get Total Cost of Ownership [TCO] i.e. sit down and work how much a sub would cost over the lifespan of playing a FTP game with buying DLC or items through a cash-shop.
As Sid states, whilst revenue per person may shrink, the pie is that much larger due to the sheer number of people playing and nickle and diming (unless companies adopt the Cryptic cash-shop - certainly not nickle and dimes!). The vast majority may never have played if there was a sub.
"If you think I'm plucky and scrappy and all I need is love, you're in way over your head. I don't have a heart of gold or get nice. There are a lot nicer people coming up. We call them losers."
Magic: The Gathering is strill going strong but can be very cyclical depending on region. Most of the poorly made copycats died out however.
Yes, thank you, that's correct, I am mostly trying to get a feel for what players are thinking. I hear a lot of grumbling around here - especially after the release of Skyrim, along the lines of "why can't MMOs be as good as this" - which raises the question of if there has been a fundamental change in sentiment.
If the poll is representative, it looks like most players think the best times are still ahead. I don't disagree, although I do think the game design will need to be rethought for that to happen. There are some indications of that . . . but there is also a lot of talk of change in the payment model, which worries me. How good can games be if the first question is "how will we pay for it"? That's usually the last question that gets asked. I'm not sure that game design will sink MMOs, but I am fairly confident that poorly-thought-out payment models can sink anything.
"I think the MMO genre is going to be at its very best here very shortly. We'll have a classic themepark game in SWTOR that isn't extremely innovative, but is very well made, has a huge fanbase to support it, and will be putting the "rpg" element back into the MMO. We'll have a themepark game in GW2 that deviates from the norm and is attempting some things that have never been done before. We'll have a MMO in The Secret World that is going to use a skill based, level-free type of character progression system in a modern-day setting. And then we'll have the first attempt at a true sandbox/themepark hybrid in Archeage, that includes some classic themepark ideas but mixes them with all those sandbox features people have been dying to see in a game.
In short, over the next few years there will be an MMO for everyone's tastes, and the boundries are going to be pushed as far as what can be done in these games. I think we're going to see a golden age in MMOs in the next few years. "
I'm going to have to agree with him on this comment. SWTOR, GW2, Secret World, and Archeage are going to boom while the World of Borecraft is going to lose so many customers they will give up on it finally, as for me I will be waiting for archeage to come out, as GW2 and SWTOR is not appealing to my tastes.
P.S. In all honesty, if someone took the whole fundamentals of Ultima Online PreUOR, and slapped some pretty graphics on there, it would be the best selling and most addicting game ever made.
haha presto!
Well, I agree with probably 99% of everything you have written here (it took me a sec to figure out what CCG was an acronym for- Then I remembered the 1990s with one of my friends spending an entire paycheck on 1 stupid Magic Card, lol) but I disagree with one main point- I think MMOs have moved AWAY from their PnP ancestors and have become closer to "action games"- A small point, but one I felt I would mention.
I think the market lost its way when it became mainstream (and I do NOT mean this in an elitist way AT ALL). Back in the day of Neverwinter nights online (on AOL lol) the first MMO-like I had ever seen- was filled with a subsect of nerd (only nerds HAD a computer in those days when the internet was "new") that had disposable income since a phone line, AOL sub and PAY BY THE MINUTE play was required. This was a new phenomonon and cost so much to play that those that did took it as "serious buisness" lol. I was too young to play the original NWN because I was too young to work, and mom and dad would be DAMNED if they would foot the bill- I only got to see it played once... And dreamed....
The first MMO I really had a chance to play was UO. AT the time, there was not 100 character slots, name change and server hopping... This was a full loot, sandbox game where you could "live your life" in a virtual fantasy world. BUT, there was consequence to acting a fool. There was a real "reputation" you could gain in game for good OR for Ill. This was in the late 1990s when PC gaming was still the domain of nerds and most households not only did not have the internet, but even a Mac or PC.
BUT as time passes, the PC merged (and is merging) much closer to the "T.V.. Once high speed Internet became readily availible and actual VIDEO could be streamed online and having a computer in the home became as normal as having a Televisionand the masses joined in- Well, everything began to change... This was not even just in gaming but the entire internet changed.
Now, developers moved away from those "pen and paper" nerds when seeing that the general masses liked things diffrent, and there was more of yhem than us- And $$$ was king. They began to gear MMOs towards the mainstream. A story on rails, everyones the "hero", everyones a badass, less difficulty, more handholding and LOTS MOAR ACTION.
I have been watching the dumbing down of games (as a general rule) for the last 10 years and had pretty much written off MMOs. I thought the industry was never going to change- UNTIL NOW.
I have not voted in your poll but 2 days ago I would have voted that it will never get better, today I am torn. I think Skyrim is (oddly enough) going to fix this mess we are in. If no major company has been making an open world, sandbox MMO- They are drawing it up right now. I have been watching the comments across several other MMO boards and I guarentee so have developers. If done RIGHT, an Epic Sandbox game will change the genre- Someone would be a fool not to see this and attempt it (not a fly by night company)
It has to be accessable and change some of the archaic rules and systems of old- But thats another discussion...
The point is, thanks to a single player game- I once again have hope for MMOs.
OP: You do know that trading card games like Pokemon, Yugi-oh and Magic still earns zillions of money, right?
Magic is in fact almost as large as it was at the top in the 90s, my buddy have a game score and while he stock P&P games and boardgames almost all his income is still from magic, he he is doing fine enough in a really small and sleepy town. So your argument there kinda falls flat.
It is pretty soon time for Wow to handle over the torch to a new game, it lost almost 10% of the subs the last year and the trend is similar to how it was with EQ before it launched.
Doomsayers said that MMOs would went down with EQ then, it is the same thing now.
There is a market for a few good MMOs, we are just waiting for something good enough to release and take over. It will happen soon, hopefully will the genre be splitted between a few games than a single one since that is better for us consumers.
MMO players seem to face a stereotype that console players and Facebook game fans don't. If you play MMOs you're a geek and maybe an addict and a loser. If you spend all day playing console games, it's an esport, you're just having fun, and if you spend all day playing FaceBook games you're just a whimsical socializer.
If MMOs could pull from both of those markets it would be a good thing, but instead it looks like MMOs are going to end up merged with Facebook. Completely unacceptable from the standpoint of someone who prefers high quality graphics and responsive gameplay, however, that does seem to be the trend.
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actually unless i see real evidence i will say mmo are growing.
i remember when about 2003 some professor posted a calculation which said mmo has hit its peak and the crowd it appeals to was maxed or near it.
result was big companies like M$ dropped turbine and a mmo in devopment,codemasters dropped dragons empires etc.
couple of years later wow proved the market can be expanded many folds.
truth is the reason games are losing mmo subs is because nothing great is out there at the moment .if swtor and GW2 are good and word of mouth goes out then it will shoot up again.
MMORPGs died a long time ago. Once you can accept that and realize that current MMORPGs are not MMORPGs - that they are various types of MMOs, etc, etc - then the odds are that you will see that MMOs are growing. There are going to be all sorts of MMOs (things we would never have considered MMOs in the past)...and that market is going to continue to expand.
I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?
Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%
+ 1
This.
MMO market is and WILL be growing. One of factors to this is that what people perceive as "MMO" changed over time, so currently co-op multiplayer games are defined as MMO. This is nothing surprising as "MMO" tag allows game developers to put microtransactions and / or subscription in a game. Of course that beat just a box sale.
So MMO's will be growing and growing alot. There will be lots of 'social games MMO', lobby-like MMO, MMOFPS's, MMORTS, co-op's labelled as MMO, there will be lots of MOBA games which are labelled as MMO while they don't have any mechanic that would made them diffrent from BF3, but they are often labelled as MMO but games like BF3 / CoD are not, etc
Games that were originally labelled as mmorpg, there won't be alot of them, even though there will be lots of games that are labelled mmorpg though they won't have features that were making mmorpg and mmorpg's in first place.
this. MMORPG are only fraction of possible MMOs. i wouldn't say MMORPGs died, but are certainly trying to be too many things at once, and that just doesn't work, most of the time.