Originally posted by JoeyMMO Another professional with a crystal ball,
Correction: MORE professionalS with crystal balls all coming to the same conclusion, ToR will be profitable.
At this point we've had enough analysts state that ToR will be pretty successful that could win over any jury or rebut any coke-bottled neighbors claims of what she saw through her dirty kitchen windows next door regarding how "bad" ToR was.
as of nov 26 I believe there were already 900k boxed pre orders. This number doesn't even include the digital sales. So we are already over 1 million for sure. However an analyst predicting 3 million subs by next june is just his guess. What if the game tanks after the 30 60 and 90 day mark like most mmos out there? Then he is wrong.
However I think this game is going to be one that finally does not tank. The game is great but even still we will see at those marks how well it is doing. Which hopefully numbers keep going up. It will be hilarious if Blizzard is dethroned at some point due to SWTOR.
ridiculous thread. Analysts predict all kinds of things and they are often wrong, otherwise there would not be failed games, failed market strategies, failed stock trades, boom-bust cycles... No amounts of data can reliably predict the future which depends on human whims.
Looking at data, analyst can predict averages, but no game is "pefrectly average" it's like predicting behavior of spherical horse in vacuum. There are simply too many variables that can affect the game.
Is average analyst's opinion better than average gamer's opinion? Yes, on average. Does it proves anything? Not a damn thing.
And I don't understand why people call me "hater". I don't have any "other" game, I don't "want SWTOR to fail" - you are paranoid, people. I will buy swtor on launch and play it. But I don't see more than 600-700 thousands subscribers after 6 months. And what's wrong with having 600k subsribers? Why do you need 1.5 mil? Sure, more profit means more addons, but who cares, ultimately?
Originally posted by Grahor ridiculous thread. Analysts predict all kinds of things and they are often wrong, otherwise there would not be failed games, failed market strategies, failed stock trades, boom-bust cycles...
So if an analyst predicted things and they were often right (as they are as well), where does that leave your logic?
There aren't failed games because analysts are often wrong. What kind of logic is this?
Sorry, but there hasn't been one analyst saying ToR will not do well. If you can find ONE, maybe this line of thinking would make some kind of sense but there hasn't been any.
In this whole industry, you mean to tell me you can't find one ANALYST who looked at all this evidence thus far, who wasn't "bought by EA" and who was simply just as wise as you or the other people who are saying "this game will fail" willing to say that publicly? Where is this person? Why don't they exist? Why haven't they written a professional opinion stating this after five years time?
What.. are they all busy reviewing GW2 or something, lol?
The funny thing is.. that's out of at least a whole nation (US) and several other countries as well that you can't find a single person to say that. That's something you should probably ponder.
Kotick is a jerk and spinning thngs his way. But the fact remains that SW:TOR would need a lot more subscribers than WOW to match it's profitability. That's the main benefit of owning the IP of your MMO.
Looking at data, analyst can predict averages, but no game is "pefrectly average" it's like predicting behavior of spherical horse in vacuum. There are simply too many variables that can affect the game.
I actually spontaneously visualized a "spherical horse in vacuum" for a second there.
Thanks! I thought my imaginative faculty was just about burned out by too many video games and TV!
First of all, 250k subscribers to offset server costs? Either those servers are made of pure gold or management for that part of the operation defecates into pure gold bowls.
Secondly, no chance in hell SWTOR will have 1.5 mil permanent subscribers 6 month down the road. 600k - likely, which will make it financially successful, still.
This is, of course, just a pathetic opinion of a pathetic citizen, but we'll see who's right.
Precisely.
If I were a betting man, I'd bet on what professional who make money to do this say vs what a "pathetic citizen" says. That's the point of the thread
Wouldn't you? /shrug
No matter what you do/say you are never going to convince the "haters" that this game isn't going to F2P in a year.
It's like sports fans, no matter what you are going to support your team and hope the other team fails.
Team sandbox, team mmorpg.com are all hoping for TOR to fail because TOR is not their kind of game.
As any sports fan knows, you win some and you lose some.
You are right, the haters are going to tell everyone the game is going to go f2p. I dont think it will but think about it, is that really a bad thing anymore? I mean people want to always compare it to WOW but we have seen that they are even taking steps to move towards F2P with the AH idea in Diablo and the f2p to lvl 20. Also all the digital items they have been selling on the side. So I dont really see that the haters telling the community a game is a fail b/c it went f2p. It just seems like all games are going that direction anymore.
SoE kept a licence with LA for years with under 500k subs, i recall when origin had about 150k subs it was thought to be profitable by all parties as regards UO and EQ1 500k subs was a massive success that sprang other companies to make mmorpg to get a piece of the pie including blizzard.
So why now do people feel million subs are needed to be profitable .Last time i looked cost of server and salaries of programmers as not risen that much in last 8 years when EQ had 500k and people were drooling over the cash they were making.
Originally posted by FrodoFragins Kotick is a jerk and spinning thngs his way. But the fact remains that SW:TOR would need a lot more subscribers than WOW to match it's profitability.
Not according to the analyst:
Pachter estimated that the MMO will pull in around 1.5 million subscribers, representing around $80 million a year in profit.
"On an ongoing basis, they will split revenue from running the subscription business. My best guess is that they will attract 1.5 million subscribers paying around $15 a month, so they should generate around $270 million in revenue.
If LucasArts gets 35 per cent and if EA incurs around 35 per cent operating expense, they make 30 per cent, or around $80 million per year, in profit. That's not bad."
They aren't trying to match WoW's profitability. They are trying to make a profit, just like any other company.
SoE kept a licence with LA for years with under 500k subs, i recall when origin had about 150k subs it was thought to be profitable by all parties as regards UO and EQ1 500k subs was a massive success that sprang other companies to make mmorpg to get a piece of the pie including blizzard.
So why now do people feel million subs are needed to be profitable .Last time i looked cost of server and salaries of programmers as not risen that much in last 8 years when EQ had 500k and people were drooling over the cash they were making.
From what i heard UO cost about 15 million dollars to make, SWTOR is likely close to ten times that.
It will peak very early then peoples will see how boring and shallow it is, a year later, they will merge half the servers, 2 years later the game will be a ghostown. Now ask you analyst to analyze that.
Professional analysts, so this means they are making an educated guess. And educated or not, its still guesswork. I would take any finacial forecast, positive or negative, on this game with a grain of salt. While what they are doing doesn't involve crystal balls or the entrails of chickens, it still isn't very much more reliable.
And in my personal opinion what Bobby Kotick is doing isn't actually trying to make a realistic attempt to predict the level of success of his competitors, but mostly just distract his own shareholders from the cold hard fact that so much of his own companie's stock health relies dangerously on the health of ONE product. IE Wow. Once Diablo 3 is released and they actually show the world what the Titan project is all about I'm sure this will change. But until then seeing at least the possibility of some serious competitiors for Wow (SWTOR, TSW, GW2) in the near future must be making the man sweat, at least a little bit.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
Originally posted by Aguitha Now ask you analyst to analyze that.
I don't have any analyst.
Those are industry analysts (note: PLURAL) that disagree with your assessment. Of course, you could always see if you can find ONE analyst who could validate your opinion on Google or Bing, although that might take awhile.
Trust me, based on the number of people who hate on TOR, if there was one analyst who thought TOR would bomb and reported that professionally, they would have posted it LONG ago and not just resorted to "Hey, Cousin Frankie over at SWTORHATERDOTCOM hates it, and I agree".
When (if) you find one, we'll be here.
Originally posted by Tardcore
Professional analysts, so this means they are making an educated guess. And educated or not, its still guesswork.
Same thing as above.
Try and find one educated guesser who says the game WON'T do well. You're not gonna find it so that means these educated guesses by most of them is more than likely, pretty spot on.
It will peak very early then peoples will see how boring and shallow it is, a year later, they will merge half the servers, 2 years later the game will be a ghostown. Now ask you analyst to analyze that.
Kotick is a jerk and spinning thngs his way. But the fact remains that SW:TOR would need a lot more subscribers than WOW to match it's profitability. That's the main benefit of owning the IP of your MMO.
It is no secret that I like the game, but giving up 30%+ of your profits to someone else is a very, very hard to take. SWToR is on target to sell around 2.5 million copies when the game launches (900k NA preorders plus EU larger market + electronic). Then comes the multiplier (Bioware is traditional 3+ sold post launch for every preorder).
Those are industry analysts (note: PLURAL) that disagree with your assessment. Of course, you could always see if you can find ONE analyst who could validate your opinion on Google or Bing, although that might take awhile.
Trust me, based on the number of people who hate on TOR, if there was one analyst who thought TOR would bomb and reported that professionally, they would have posted it LONG ago and not just resorted to "Hey, Cousin Frankie over at SWTORHATERDOTCOM hates it, and I agree".
When (if) you find one, we'll be here.
Originally posted by Tardcore
Professional analysts, so this means they are making an educated guess. And educated or not, its still guesswork.
Same thing as above.
Try and find one educated guesser who says the game WON'T do well. You're not gonna find it so that means these educated guesses by most of them is more than likely, pretty spot on.
Well Bobby Kotick, the person who pretty much started this whole controversy for one. But that is pointless anyway as I am among the people who feel this game will be quite successful.
However, and this is very important, that deos not mean I feel confident enough in SWTOR's success that I would tell people to go out and buy a ton of EA stock because of it. There is a massive difference between the game being a money maker for Bioware EA and LA, and the game being a sound investment opportunity for a thrid party.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
There you go. And to be fair Kotick said it wouldn't make a MASSIVE profit, due to the cost of the IP license. And he might actually have a point, but I truly think his predictions are so much smoke screen to soothe the ruffled feathers of his own flock of stock investors who are already unhappy with Wow's slow down in growth hurting their investment. He is simply trying to discount that SWTOR could in anyway have an impact on his own companies worth. And even possibly keep some of these unhappy investors from thinking that maybe EA is the next big thing and its time they took some of their money elsewhere.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
I have yet to see an Analyst make an honest buck. Most of the time their predictions are 50/50 Lol.
~flip a coin
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
It will peak very early then peoples will see how boring and shallow it is, a year later, they will merge half the servers, 2 years later the game will be a ghostown. Now ask you analyst to analyze that.
i sense much anger in you.
You are wrong my young padawan. I'm just stating the obvious. Each time something with the name Star Wars comes out peoples go crazy over it thinking it's the best thing since slice bread, it's not.
Comments
At this point we've had enough analysts state that ToR will be pretty successful that could win over any jury or rebut any coke-bottled neighbors claims of what she saw through her dirty kitchen windows next door regarding how "bad" ToR was.
"TO MICHAEL!"
as of nov 26 I believe there were already 900k boxed pre orders. This number doesn't even include the digital sales. So we are already over 1 million for sure. However an analyst predicting 3 million subs by next june is just his guess. What if the game tanks after the 30 60 and 90 day mark like most mmos out there? Then he is wrong.
However I think this game is going to be one that finally does not tank. The game is great but even still we will see at those marks how well it is doing. Which hopefully numbers keep going up. It will be hilarious if Blizzard is dethroned at some point due to SWTOR.
ridiculous thread. Analysts predict all kinds of things and they are often wrong, otherwise there would not be failed games, failed market strategies, failed stock trades, boom-bust cycles... No amounts of data can reliably predict the future which depends on human whims.
Looking at data, analyst can predict averages, but no game is "pefrectly average" it's like predicting behavior of spherical horse in vacuum. There are simply too many variables that can affect the game.
Is average analyst's opinion better than average gamer's opinion? Yes, on average. Does it proves anything? Not a damn thing.
And I don't understand why people call me "hater". I don't have any "other" game, I don't "want SWTOR to fail" - you are paranoid, people. I will buy swtor on launch and play it. But I don't see more than 600-700 thousands subscribers after 6 months. And what's wrong with having 600k subsribers? Why do you need 1.5 mil? Sure, more profit means more addons, but who cares, ultimately?
So if an analyst predicted things and they were often right (as they are as well), where does that leave your logic?
There aren't failed games because analysts are often wrong. What kind of logic is this?
Sorry, but there hasn't been one analyst saying ToR will not do well. If you can find ONE, maybe this line of thinking would make some kind of sense but there hasn't been any.
In this whole industry, you mean to tell me you can't find one ANALYST who looked at all this evidence thus far, who wasn't "bought by EA" and who was simply just as wise as you or the other people who are saying "this game will fail" willing to say that publicly? Where is this person? Why don't they exist? Why haven't they written a professional opinion stating this after five years time?
What.. are they all busy reviewing GW2 or something, lol?
The funny thing is.. that's out of at least a whole nation (US) and several other countries as well that you can't find a single person to say that. That's something you should probably ponder.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Kotick is a jerk and spinning thngs his way. But the fact remains that SW:TOR would need a lot more subscribers than WOW to match it's profitability. That's the main benefit of owning the IP of your MMO.
I actually spontaneously visualized a "spherical horse in vacuum" for a second there.
Thanks! I thought my imaginative faculty was just about burned out by too many video games and TV!
You are right, the haters are going to tell everyone the game is going to go f2p. I dont think it will but think about it, is that really a bad thing anymore? I mean people want to always compare it to WOW but we have seen that they are even taking steps to move towards F2P with the AH idea in Diablo and the f2p to lvl 20. Also all the digital items they have been selling on the side. So I dont really see that the haters telling the community a game is a fail b/c it went f2p. It just seems like all games are going that direction anymore.
SoE kept a licence with LA for years with under 500k subs, i recall when origin had about 150k subs it was thought to be profitable by all parties as regards UO and EQ1 500k subs was a massive success that sprang other companies to make mmorpg to get a piece of the pie including blizzard.
So why now do people feel million subs are needed to be profitable .Last time i looked cost of server and salaries of programmers as not risen that much in last 8 years when EQ had 500k and people were drooling over the cash they were making.
I guess you made it to 50 and did everything there is to do? Impressive!! What a silly comment.
Not according to the analyst:
They aren't trying to match WoW's profitability. They are trying to make a profit, just like any other company.
"TO MICHAEL!"
From what i heard UO cost about 15 million dollars to make, SWTOR is likely close to ten times that.
It will peak very early then peoples will see how boring and shallow it is, a year later, they will merge half the servers, 2 years later the game will be a ghostown. Now ask you analyst to analyze that.
Professional analysts, so this means they are making an educated guess. And educated or not, its still guesswork. I would take any finacial forecast, positive or negative, on this game with a grain of salt. While what they are doing doesn't involve crystal balls or the entrails of chickens, it still isn't very much more reliable.
And in my personal opinion what Bobby Kotick is doing isn't actually trying to make a realistic attempt to predict the level of success of his competitors, but mostly just distract his own shareholders from the cold hard fact that so much of his own companie's stock health relies dangerously on the health of ONE product. IE Wow. Once Diablo 3 is released and they actually show the world what the Titan project is all about I'm sure this will change. But until then seeing at least the possibility of some serious competitiors for Wow (SWTOR, TSW, GW2) in the near future must be making the man sweat, at least a little bit.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
I don't have any analyst.
Those are industry analysts (note: PLURAL) that disagree with your assessment. Of course, you could always see if you can find ONE analyst who could validate your opinion on Google or Bing, although that might take awhile.
Trust me, based on the number of people who hate on TOR, if there was one analyst who thought TOR would bomb and reported that professionally, they would have posted it LONG ago and not just resorted to "Hey, Cousin Frankie over at SWTORHATERDOTCOM hates it, and I agree".
When (if) you find one, we'll be here.
Same thing as above.
Try and find one educated guesser who says the game WON'T do well. You're not gonna find it so that means these educated guesses by most of them is more than likely, pretty spot on.
"TO MICHAEL!"
i sense much anger in you.
It is no secret that I like the game, but giving up 30%+ of your profits to someone else is a very, very hard to take. SWToR is on target to sell around 2.5 million copies when the game launches (900k NA preorders plus EU larger market + electronic). Then comes the multiplier (Bioware is traditional 3+ sold post launch for every preorder).
Well Bobby Kotick, the person who pretty much started this whole controversy for one. But that is pointless anyway as I am among the people who feel this game will be quite successful.
However, and this is very important, that deos not mean I feel confident enough in SWTOR's success that I would tell people to go out and buy a ton of EA stock because of it. There is a massive difference between the game being a money maker for Bioware EA and LA, and the game being a sound investment opportunity for a thrid party.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/333268
There you go. And to be fair Kotick said it wouldn't make a MASSIVE profit, due to the cost of the IP license. And he might actually have a point, but I truly think his predictions are so much smoke screen to soothe the ruffled feathers of his own flock of stock investors who are already unhappy with Wow's slow down in growth hurting their investment. He is simply trying to discount that SWTOR could in anyway have an impact on his own companies worth. And even possibly keep some of these unhappy investors from thinking that maybe EA is the next big thing and its time they took some of their money elsewhere.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
For the record they dont pay lucas a sent till they make back there investment. Then after that they pay them only 35 pct of all profits.
so that means that afer they take otu the cost of srevers and things like that lucas only gets 35 pct of profits so ea gets 65 pct of all profits
How is that not profitable. Lucas doesnt get a sent till the game makes money and even then ea gets 2/3 of the profits how is that not a godo thing.
considering what this game may make in total profits thats a pretty good chunk of change.
I have yet to see an Analyst make an honest buck. Most of the time their predictions are 50/50 Lol.
~flip a coin
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
Fail correction, or doesn't 'another' imply more than one to you?
Analyst predicts... singular, what the thread is about.
The word 'another' means 'one more'... your correction of his correction was incorrect.
i predict that the main pre orders are the starwars fans which is who this game is for
they will have a constant subscription base but i wouldnt expect a huge incress after realease
most of the player base will already know about his game and purchase it on day one leaving little room for future purchases
the box will be really cheap within 6 weeks of realease probably arond £15
the game will be alive for a number of years but its not going to be the next wow and probably settle to about 1 million subs next june
i base this on one fact alone
if you remove the ip from starwars its acctualy a bland looking game with not a lot to offer joe public
personaly i have to see somthing to make me excited about a game and this just isnt making me even preorder it
You are wrong my young padawan. I'm just stating the obvious. Each time something with the name Star Wars comes out peoples go crazy over it thinking it's the best thing since slice bread, it's not.