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Guild Wars 2 Player Numbers

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  • botrytisbotrytis Member RarePosts: 3,363
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by AZHokie54
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by AZHokie54
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by aesperus

    Well logged in this morning just to check. (it's not prime time atm)

    GW2 currently has:

    11 full servers

    12 heavy pop servers

    1 medium pop server

    (this is for NA of course)

    I see threads complaining about the populations, but I'm honestly puzzled (unless you're playing on that 1 medium pop server, or maybe on a EU, in which case I don't know their numbers).

    Furthermore, ingame we've been having daily epic WvW battles in all 4 zones, my guild has actually been growing and we've been doing more & more events as a guild. I still see PUGs for every dungeon (though Arah is admittedly harder to find groups for at times). Where is this mass exodus people seem to be implying? Cause from every angle I can look @ GW2 from, it still looks like a healthy, popular, thriving game.

    As for twitch, I still see people streaming it, and many of the staple streamers are still there. (but again, I may just be following different people). All I can say is the people who were streaming, vlogging, & writting about GW2 pre-release are all still playing. Even some of the ones that bought MoP.

    Right now as we speak GW2 has 300 viewers on twitch(it was constantly over 10k the first 2 weeks) while WoW is at 12k. 

    I hate to break this to you, but people tend to watch certain players, not games. 

    Yeah, and a certain streamer was at 1.5k when he stopped GW2 and is now at 7k+ with WoW. Also most famous streamers left because they got bored. Is it coincidence?

    Not really, more viewers means more money for them. It's their job. They will play whatever game nets them the most viewers at any given time.

    BTW, you still haven't adressed why, if GW2 is dtying, all of the servers are at either full or high population.

     

    What does High mean? Only arenanet knows. It could mean 20k players today and 10k players tomorrow. Also why is my server listed as Medium at primetime and also as medium at 7 am in the morning when it's actually completely empty? Does it track online players or how many played in the last x hours/days? We know nothing about those values, and we can't extract any valuable information. 

    Please stop  - the game has still been throwing me into overflow servers when logging in daily. That means the main server is full and I can't get in until another player logs off. That means they are full.Pleople are still playing. You can argue all you want about how the game is dying, it is not. DEAL WITH IT.

    From Gamesbeat - top selling for September 2012

     


  • boxsndboxsnd Member UncommonPosts: 438
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon

    Logical? So you agree that GW2 currently has 75% of the population that WoW currently does, and once had over 160% of WoWs population? Because that's what the numbers are apparently trying to tell us.

     

    "Logically".

    No I don't agree. You are actually the main reason I said people don't know statistics ITT. You can't compare games that way because a different % of the population of GW2 might use xfire compared to WoW players. What you can do is compare loss of players each week (for example GW2 lost 55% of its player base in the last 40 days. how many did SWTOR lose in its first 40 days? how many will MoP lose? etc)

     

    Hmm... how can I squeeze that number out of XFire? I see MoP has lost a fill third of its hours played in only two weeks, but can't seem to find historical numbers of players.

     

    Oh, how does someone like me that uninstalled XFire but still plays GW2 fit in the equation?

    The fact that you stopped doesn't change much when dealing with large numbers. The same thing probably happened to other GW2 or WoW players.

     

    So other players as well are probably uninstalling XFire since it has nothing to offer GW2 players, as you admit. How does this retain any validity then to XFire numbers again? It's artificially pushing the curve in a negative direction.

    The only users who might have thrown xfire off are fanboys who only installed  xfire to "vote" for gw2 at release, and quickly uninstalled it because they realized the ridiculousness of that action. A regular user wouldn't remove it because gw2 has the /age command (doesn't wow and most games have a similar command? /played i think?)

    DAoC - Excalibur & Camlann

  • VolkonVolkon Member UncommonPosts: 3,748
    Originally posted by boxsnd

    The only users who might have thrown xfire off are fanboys who only installed  xfire to "vote" for gw2 at release, and quickly uninstalled it because they realized the ridiculousness of that action. A regular user wouldn't remove it because gw2 has the /age command (doesn't wow and most games have a similar command? /played i think?)

    Ugh...I don't remember. Haven't played WoW since right before Cataclysm came out. Anyone else recall? Heh... that was the day I stopped being a skritt, when I quit WoW.

     

    But I gave XFire a try, admittedly because of all the fuss in the forums over it. Turned out to be a whole lot of not much and actually added nothing to the game.

    Oderint, dum metuant.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by Amjoco
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by aesperus

    Well logged in this morning just to check. (it's not prime time atm)

    GW2 currently has:

    11 full servers

    12 heavy pop servers

    1 medium pop server

    (this is for NA of course)

    I see threads complaining about the populations, but I'm honestly puzzled (unless you're playing on that 1 medium pop server, or maybe on a EU, in which case I don't know their numbers).

    Furthermore, ingame we've been having daily epic WvW battles in all 4 zones, my guild has actually been growing and we've been doing more & more events as a guild. I still see PUGs for every dungeon (though Arah is admittedly harder to find groups for at times). Where is this mass exodus people seem to be implying? Cause from every angle I can look @ GW2 from, it still looks like a healthy, popular, thriving game.

    As for twitch, I still see people streaming it, and many of the staple streamers are still there. (but again, I may just be following different people). All I can say is the people who were streaming, vlogging, & writting about GW2 pre-release are all still playing. Even some of the ones that bought MoP.

    Right now as we speak GW2 has 300 viewers on twitch(it was constantly over 10k the first 2 weeks) while WoW is at 12k. 

    First I find it disturbing you act as if you want to see the game fail.

    Second all that matters is that the population is still striving like this, and like this;

    If you can use twitch as a meter for population I can use facts for mine.

    I am not ready to subscribe to the doom and gloom theory that GW2 is dying already. I log in and I see people. No, not nearly as many as the 1st 2 weeks, but there are people in all zones. Also,  there is no released information that tells us what GW2's populations are. There are samples. I will not argue how accurate or inaccurate they are. but they are samples. And in every case where there are measureable numbers, GW2 populations are in decline. Use Xfire, Raptr, I don't care. Do their numbers mean anything? Not of themselves, but historically speaking XFire has accurately represented the overall population's trends. You can check website traffic. Someone here posted them once. Links to show Internet traffic. GW2.com, guildhead.com, gw2db.com. Any site that has any popularity related to GW2 shows the exact same trend that Xfire shows. Every single measureale sourse says the exact same thing except for one. The one that all the fans use. This screenshot. So, what does this color coded math mean anyway? I like to use math with numbers. not colors. Yellow+Orange+Red=I-WIN! These are adjusted daily anyway. It's the only way ArenaNet has to control the flow of server transfers in order to try to keep a balanced population across servers. And I'll say this again. GW2's population is still healthy, but it is in decline.

  • botrytisbotrytis Member RarePosts: 3,363
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon

    Logical? So you agree that GW2 currently has 75% of the population that WoW currently does, and once had over 160% of WoWs population? Because that's what the numbers are apparently trying to tell us.

     

    "Logically".

    No I don't agree. You are actually the main reason I said people don't know statistics ITT. You can't compare games that way because a different % of the population of GW2 might use xfire compared to WoW players. What you can do is compare loss of players each week (for example GW2 lost 55% of its player base in the last 40 days. how many did SWTOR lose in its first 40 days? how many will MoP lose? etc)

     

    Hmm... how can I squeeze that number out of XFire? I see MoP has lost a fill third of its hours played in only two weeks, but can't seem to find historical numbers of players.

     

    Oh, how does someone like me that uninstalled XFire but still plays GW2 fit in the equation?

    The fact that you stopped doesn't change much when dealing with large numbers. The same thing probably happened to other GW2 or WoW players.

     

    So other players as well are probably uninstalling XFire since it has nothing to offer GW2 players, as you admit. How does this retain any validity then to XFire numbers again? It's artificially pushing the curve in a negative direction.

    The only users who might have thrown xfire off are fanboys who only installed  xfire to "vote" for gw2 at release, and quickly uninstalled it because they realized the ridiculousness of that action. A regular user wouldn't remove it because gw2 has the /age command (doesn't wow and most games have a similar command? /played i think?)

    Please stop - Xfire issue is done - basically useless numbers used by naysayers of ANY GAME.

    http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41175/Global/

    Read here  - GLOBAL SALES - GW2 is ranked 9 that includes XBox 360 games and PS3 games - this is BOX sales.

     

    These are the only numbers we can really use currently. These don't count electronic sales, so it is probably more.


  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Member UncommonPosts: 2,051
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by bcbully
    In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

    We have crossed this bridge many times - Xfire numbers are useless as it is a measure of Xfire users NOT All GW2 players.

     

    Please understand that before you post.

     

    I am in a guild on Gandara - we have 168 members and counting. That is not dying by any stretch of the imagination.

    Yes we have crossed this bridge many times, and it is a self selected sample of guild wars 2 players, and thus is usefull for seeing trends in a game.  It is not useful for comparing the populations of games or for trying to figure out what the population of a game is.  For those two things, it is actually worse than useless and people can attempt to say that x game has more people than y game because of x-fire stats.  That is an unknowable using x-fire, but what is knowable, based on x-fire, is how the population trend is doing for a game.  

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,935

    Really this back and forth with the legitimacy of XFire numbers is just going to get this thread closed.

    I think Geezer is right a couple posts above.  And I think Box is right in some ways.  I also think other people are partly right too.  The fact I think we all can agree on is that this game still maintans a healthy population.  But it is most certainly in a decline.

     

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by boxsnd

    So many people in this thread who know nothing about statistics. 

     

    How to correctly "read" xfire: GW2 started with 15k users there and is now at 6.8k (and still falling), which is a 55% drop. Therefore we can safely assume that if it sold 2.5 million, right now less than 1.2 mil are still active (and it will be less than 1 mil in about 2-3 weeks).

    BUT - how many GW2 players use Xfire. What percentage is that population of TOTAL GW2 players? You don't know? Well those numbers don't mean anything then.

    You can't assume that by the numbers - all you can assume is the number of Xfire players are not playing GW2 anymore.

     

    Learn population statistics since that is what you are trying to use by quoting Xfire numbers.

     I think it's funny how many responses box's absolutely ridonkulous post has garnered...

    I dunno, I think it might be the combination of first calling everyone an idiot, and then proceeding to say something monumentally stupid that people just can't resist replying to lol :).  Good tips for trolls in the future...

    No. I get so many responses becuase what I'm saying is actually logical and it goes against everything fanboys believe in. They aren't arguing with me, but with their own logic.

    Logical? So you agree that GW2 currently has 75% of the population that WoW currently does, and once had over 160% of WoWs population? Because that's what the numbers are apparently trying to tell us.

     

    "Logically".

    No I don't agree. You are actually the main reason I said people don't know statistics ITT. You can't compare games that way because a different % of the population of GW2 might use xfire compared to WoW players. What you can do is compare loss of players each week (for example GW2 lost 55% of its player base in the last 40 days. how many did SWTOR lose in its first 40 days? how many will MoP lose? etc)

    xFire = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias therefore it is not a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_sample, it is also a very small sample size and thus very likely has a massive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error.

    That would be true if people were using xfire to "vote" for games. They aren't. They are using it for reasons unrelated to the statistics(to enhance their gaming experience and track their gaming time). Therefore it is a mostly random sample which is more or less accurate (and xfire has been proven right every time in the past)

     Your premise and your conclusion have nothing to do with one another.

    How would whether or not xFire users are "voting" for games have anything to do with the fundamental randomness of the sample???

    The only fact is that XFire users are by definition self selected, and probably tend to be fairly hardcore gamers, and thus not representative of all gamers at large.  THAT has something to do with them not being a random sample.  Whether or not they vote has nothing to do with that.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • KingJigglyKingJiggly Member Posts: 777
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by AZHokie54
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by AZHokie54
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by aesperus

    Well logged in this morning just to check. (it's not prime time atm)

    GW2 currently has:

    11 full servers

    12 heavy pop servers

    1 medium pop server

    (this is for NA of course)

    I see threads complaining about the populations, but I'm honestly puzzled (unless you're playing on that 1 medium pop server, or maybe on a EU, in which case I don't know their numbers).

    Furthermore, ingame we've been having daily epic WvW battles in all 4 zones, my guild has actually been growing and we've been doing more & more events as a guild. I still see PUGs for every dungeon (though Arah is admittedly harder to find groups for at times). Where is this mass exodus people seem to be implying? Cause from every angle I can look @ GW2 from, it still looks like a healthy, popular, thriving game.

    As for twitch, I still see people streaming it, and many of the staple streamers are still there. (but again, I may just be following different people). All I can say is the people who were streaming, vlogging, & writting about GW2 pre-release are all still playing. Even some of the ones that bought MoP.

    Right now as we speak GW2 has 300 viewers on twitch(it was constantly over 10k the first 2 weeks) while WoW is at 12k. 

    I hate to break this to you, but people tend to watch certain players, not games. 

    Yeah, and a certain streamer was at 1.5k when he stopped GW2 and is now at 7k+ with WoW. Also most famous streamers left because they got bored. Is it coincidence?

    Not really, more viewers means more money for them. It's their job. They will play whatever game nets them the most viewers at any given time.

    BTW, you still haven't adressed why, if GW2 is dtying, all of the servers are at either full or high population.

     

    What does High mean? Only arenanet knows. It could mean 20k players today and 10k players tomorrow. Also why is my server listed as Medium at primetime and also as medium at 7 am in the morning when it's actually completely empty? Does it track online players or how many played in the last x hours/days? We know nothing about those values, and we can't extract any valuable information. 

    I hope you don't really look like that. Your picture I mean.

    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation

  • VolkonVolkon Member UncommonPosts: 3,748
    Originally posted by KingJiggly

     

    I hope you don't really look like that. Your picture I mean.

     

    No offense intended, but the same could be said of you and yours. image

    Oderint, dum metuant.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Member UncommonPosts: 2,051
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by boxsnd

    So many people in this thread who know nothing about statistics. 

     

    How to correctly "read" xfire: GW2 started with 15k users there and is now at 6.8k (and still falling), which is a 55% drop. Therefore we can safely assume that if it sold 2.5 million, right now less than 1.2 mil are still active (and it will be less than 1 mil in about 2-3 weeks).

    BUT - how many GW2 players use Xfire. What percentage is that population of TOTAL GW2 players? You don't know? Well those numbers don't mean anything then.

    You can't assume that by the numbers - all you can assume is the number of Xfire players are not playing GW2 anymore.

     

    Learn population statistics since that is what you are trying to use by quoting Xfire numbers.

     I think it's funny how many responses box's absolutely ridonkulous post has garnered...

    I dunno, I think it might be the combination of first calling everyone an idiot, and then proceeding to say something monumentally stupid that people just can't resist replying to lol :).  Good tips for trolls in the future...

    No. I get so many responses becuase what I'm saying is actually logical and it goes against everything fanboys believe in. They aren't arguing with me, but with their own logic.

    Logical? So you agree that GW2 currently has 75% of the population that WoW currently does, and once had over 160% of WoWs population? Because that's what the numbers are apparently trying to tell us.

     

    "Logically".

    No I don't agree. You are actually the main reason I said people don't know statistics ITT. You can't compare games that way because a different % of the population of GW2 might use xfire compared to WoW players. What you can do is compare loss of players each week (for example GW2 lost 55% of its player base in the last 40 days. how many did SWTOR lose in its first 40 days? how many will MoP lose? etc)

    xFire = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias therefore it is not a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_sample, it is also a very small sample size and thus very likely has a massive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error.

    That would be true if people were using xfire to "vote" for games. They aren't. They are using it for reasons unrelated to the statistics(to enhance their gaming experience and track their gaming time). Therefore it is a mostly random sample which is more or less accurate (and xfire has been proven right every time in the past)

     Your premise and your conclusion have nothing to do with one another.

    How would whether or not xFire users are "voting" for games have anything to do with the fundamental randomness of the sample???

    The only fact is that XFire users are by definition self selected, and probably tend to be fairly hardcore gamers, and thus not representative of all gamers at large.  THAT has something to do with them not being a random sample.  Whether or not they vote has nothing to do with that.

    Actually, the sample size for GW2 is freaking huge.  A 9,000 sample size (population size is irrelevant) is very large, and will give you a margine of error of less than 2% ( a sample of 1500 people will get you a margin of error of 2.5%).   Most pollitical pollsters would give up an appendage to have a sample of 9k people most don't even get over 1k.   The real problem, that you hit on is the self-selection issue, and that is why you can't compare games with each other, it is useless for that purpose.

    Edit:  Argh, I keep telling myself I won't partake in these x-fire debates anymore, but I always end up doing it anyway, I am going to now exit as I'm pretty sure x-fire is derailing the topic though it does seem related to the overall topic of population health.

  • cdesteycdestey Member Posts: 70
    Originally posted by Tokken
    Originally posted by Half_Man_Half_Toon
    Ok Hi All, I dunno what is happening all of the sudden but what i going on With Guild Wars 2 I dont see my Guildmates getting Online Or Even On Vent and also I watch allot of Twitch.Tv  and people are stopingto play Guild Wars 2 Pls tell me why I dont want to have the same feeling Star Wars The Old Republic had on me when it was release it was a bad feeling I dont want to feel like that again. Help!!!!

    TOO MUCH COFFEE!! not enough periods.

    Sounds like my grandmother!! :P

  • deamiandeamian Member UncommonPosts: 66

    Guild Wars 2 doesn't chain people to their computer desk like nearly every other mmo feels to do, I've been playing Borderlands 2, Dishonored, Planetside 2, Torchlight 2...sequel mania. And enjoying the fact that I can support other developments teams without having a "crap i should really be doing my dailies, or logging in and sitting in a city for an hour getting ready for a raid" moment

     

    Refreshing

  • AmanaAmana Moderator UncommonPosts: 3,912

    We have shut down XFire threads for this reason.  http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5277723#5277723

     

    To give feedback on moderation, contact mikeb@mmorpg.com

This discussion has been closed.