NCSoft Earning call conference: GW2 xpac and China release in 2013

Gaia_Hunter

http://222.122.46.97/ct/ncsoft/20130205/ncsoft.html

So I've been listening to the conference call that can be found in the above link (Korean with english translation).

The main points regarding GW2:

2.9 millions box sales in 2012.

The lionshare of the box sales were acconted in 4Q12.

GW2 to be released in China some point this year.

Gw2 expansion to be released in 2013.

They declined to give any numbers for micro transactions (for all their games) only saying it is a large part of their revenue.

They expect GW2 to continue to be an important revenue source.

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Nothing particularly new, although it is good to have the rumour of GW2 Xpac in 2013 confirmed.

From my estimates, gems accounted for 20-50% of the total revenue generated by GW2 (~$150M) using revenue per box of $30 and $40.

So using those 2 values, the gem sales would be equivalente to the revenue 660K-1.6M $15 subs.would generate.

If the microtransactions remain flat that would mean $90M-$225M per year in cash shop revenues.

 

 

Nadia

great news, thank you

Zzad

Xpac for GW2 this year?!

Count me in !!!!!   

And that launch in China is going to sky-rocket sales!

QSatu

I have my doubts. GW2 seems like a polar opposite of what Chinese like in their games.

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Karteli

I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion

 

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 

Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

 

The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

Aerowyn

not very surprised with plans for xpac by end of this year.. with such a huge slew of new MMOs coming out by years end they will want something big to keep up with the competition.. will be looking forward to it:)

jtcgs

Originally posted by Karteli

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

Aerowyn

Originally posted by jtcgs

Originally posted by Karteli

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

yea with my multiple guilds and people from these forums on top of my real life friends AND on top of WvW talking happens almost nonstop.. not only that it's one of the most friendly MMOs i have ever played in my life as far as people being respectfull and just overall helpfull.

Zeus.CM

Originally posted by Aerowyn
not very surprised with plans for xpac by end of this year.. with such a huge slew of new MMOs coming out by years end they will want something big to keep up with the competition.. will be looking forward to it:)

I am, on the other hand, very surprised by this. I remember back in a day when GW2 was first announced, we all thought it would be released in 2010. After so much waiting, I learned to be patient, so having an expansion so early is hard to grasp, especially because I'm expecting that xpac will bring as much content as the original (that was the case with gw1).

eye_m

this is good news, I've been worried about content only coming out in monthly updates and I'm really excited to see what sorts of additions they might add in an expansion pack. I'm hoping for some newer character models for existing races and maybe a new race as well.

 

 

Isawa

Originally posted by Karteli

I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion

...

The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

It is a given that an expansion will always sell fewer than the original. Because there will be at least one person who does not buy it lol. Common sense.

Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by greenreen
I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

September - Two million sold
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

Third Quarter
Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

Fourth Quarter
Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

Third Quarter
2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

Fourth Quarter
900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.

Your deductions are based on false assumptions.

As they stated on the report call the lion share of the box sales were accounted in the 4Q12.

Also, the digital sales from Anet site would bring closer to $48 a box.

The 3Q12 was only 700K-1M boxes.

mistersalty1

Originally posted by Eluldor

Originally posted by Karteli

I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion

...

The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

It is a given that an expansion will always sell fewer than the original. Because there will be at least one person who does not buy it lol. Common sense.

Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

fivoroth

Expansions are cool. I would really like to see a new character class(es) too ::D

freston

Omg. a new expansion? I had just started exploring the rift expansion and pandaria, and i bought them months ago. I may have to get a divorce.

mikahr

Originally posted by mistersalty1

Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

Not necessarily, a lot of people come back to check big updates, especially expansions, just look at WoW, LOTRO...

fiontar

Originally posted by Karteli

I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion

 

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 

Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

 

The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

It's one of the best MMOs ever and I can tell you that everyone I play with agrees that while the game is fun solo, it's a lot more fun with a group of friends/guildmates. It's actually not only very fun to play with a group, but the game gets major kudos for eliminating most of the barriers to friends/guildmates playing together. Level scaling works, even better since the January patch.

My latest character is a level 63 Warrior and a huge portion of the time I've spent leveling so far has been playing with friends in sub-level 30 zones. Hours played to get to 63 is pretty close to being in line with my normal leveling speed. No other MMO I'm aware of makes it so easy, balanced and rewarding for players of all different levels to play together.

Other than for dungeons, the game doesn't force grouping. However, that doesn't mean it's not fun/challenging/rewarding for people who play in groups, because it is a fun group game! I think people just need to stop blaming a lack of forced grouping for why they don't actually group in a game. You should group because you like playing with others and you should want to group with people who also like playing with others. Join a good guild. Bring RL friends or make new one, people who actually enjoy playing together.

Grouping in GW2 is a blast, but it's up to you to assemble a group of people who enjoy playing together.

vmoped

Originally posted by fiontar

...Grouping in GW2 is a blast, but it's up to you to assemble a group of people who enjoy playing together.

 Be careful mate, from my experience alot of people here in the states are not the best at personal responsibility! (I think they find complaining much easier).  I agree with ya though.  I find the game has all the social tools you need.  Imagination and ingenuity serve to fill the gaps from my experience!

Cheers!

fiontar

Originally posted by mikahr

Originally posted by mistersalty1

Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

Not necessarily, a lot of people come back to check big updates, especially expansions, just look at WoW, LOTRO...

MMOs tend to sell fewer expansion than total copies of the base game. No game is going to have 100% retention/recall driving expansion sales. However, if Arenanet follows the model used with GW1, we can probably expect that in addition to boxes that only include a code for the added expansion content for existing players, they will also bundle the original game, with the expansion, at an attractive price. This helped make GW1 one of the biggest selling PC game franchises and could boost expansion driven sales considerably.

If the rate of growth continues to outstrip the rate of player drift, (I say drift, rather than loss, because with the B2P model, people can and do drift in and out of the game, rather than completely quiting), then the expansion, in it's first six months, could sell close to 3 million copies, or more, as by the time the expansion goes on sale, there could have been a couple million more box sales of the original GW2.

Also, the B2P model should allow the game to pull in an even higher percentage of people who "left, but came back to check out the expansion" than is seen for a typical MMO.

Also, it's good that gem store revenue seems to be very healthy. If they continue to make incrimental improvements to value on some offerings, while adding more worth while items and services to the store, average revenue per player could continue to increase. (I will admit that I think that Arenanet has been a bit too slow to roll out new gem store content. It's hard to tell if they are just being overly cautious, or if they just don't have enough people working on things like skins. If they can get more productive on new releases for the store, revenues could really increase).

kabitoshin

Originally posted by Karteli

I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion

 

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 

Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

 

The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

It's not the games fault for people being unsocial, It's the generation of MMO players these days. People don't want to group up with some random people when you can just zerg events. 

mikahr

Originally posted by jtcgs

Originally posted by Karteli

GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

 only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

I never understood this need for people to require game "to make them social"

I never had any problem being social in games they proclaim as "solo online MMOs"

Really start to surface its not games fault but those people fault.

Its pretty much obvious MMOs are not for them and they should move to single player games.

Originally posted by kabitoshin

It's not the games fault for people being unsocial, It's the generation of MMO players these days. People don't want to group up with some random people when you can just zerg events.

people want to group, they are just not forced to group with you. Nothing wrong with game or other people. Start to look for cause  somewhere else.

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Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by greenreen

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by greenreen
I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

September - Two million sold
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

Third Quarter
Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

Fourth Quarter
Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

Third Quarter
2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

Fourth Quarter
900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.

Your deductions are based on false assumptions.

As they stated on the report call the lion share of the box sales were accounted in the 4Q12.

Also, the digital sales from Anet site would bring closer to $48 a box.

The 3Q12 was only 700K-1M boxes.

There are no false assumptions. Those were their press releases that reported sales throughout the year. You must think they lied then to the public. I didn't link them for nothing. Did you even follow the links. If you have a problem with what they said then it's THEM you need to talk to. 

 

Lets see.

I've linked to the damn financial report call.

They sold 2 millions in beggining of september 2012 but the money ("lion share" of it) only shows up in 4Q12 financial report..

NCSoft own words.

No conflicting information.

Icewhite

Originally posted by Zzad

And that launch in China is going to sky-rocket sales!

It will feel good to hear the world to revert to the subs arguments tellng us how China doesn't count again.

I think Blizzard confused gamers (essentially simple creatures) with "China totally counts". Because up to that point, EQ fans had been telling us it didn't.

Still, GW2's got to be a huge disappointment to fans of the Old Tyme Subs Argument. "How will we handle this one, we need mmogcharts and chit, oh noes!"

We might have to compare...incomes?? How will we handle currency conversion rates? We can only argue once per quarter?

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