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The Death of the PC - 5 years?

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  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,483
    If the PC is dead in five years, the most likely culprit will be the collapse of human civilization.  If electricity is basically unavailable, or worse, we're all dead, then the death of the PC will be an afterthought.
  • CazNeergCazNeerg Member Posts: 2,198
    Originally posted by fivoroth

    I am guessing that if you are a 3d artist that's a different story. I think the only thing our laptops will fall flat will be the 3d performance. But otherwise they have quite fast CPUs (4 core i7) and what I consider lots of RAM - 8gb. 

    A lot of businesses use laptops because you can take them anywhere. You can go and work at home, you can take your laptop on client site. Often you just need to get your laptop in a meeting etc. Some times you have to work with other people away from your desk. In all these situations your desktop is kinda useless!

    Although when you are at your desk everyone hooks their laptop to a big screen and uses a regular keyboard and mouse.

    I would argue that if anything is likely to "die" in the near future, it would be the laptop, not the desktop PC.  As tablets continue to advance, they are basically becoming lighter weight laptops without the burden of an always attached keyboard.  The desktop is going to remain because, barring some major tech advancements, there are going to be some high-intensity applications (both gaming and professional) which require more hardware than can be crammed into a tablet, but the laptop is likely going to become way too niche to justify keeping around when 99.9% of it's function can be accomplished with a high-end tablet, and the other 0.1% is far more effectively handled on a desktop.

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  • iridescenceiridescence Member UncommonPosts: 1,552
    Originally posted by Quizzical

    The thing that you need to remember about cloud computing is that for many purposes, doing computations is cheap, but transmitting the results of those computations is expensive.  Even for many cloud computing or HPC purposes, often the bottleneck is in reading in data or passing data between racks of computers, not in doing actual computations.  If it's cheaper to do computations locally than it is to transmit the results of the computations, cloud computing can't help you.

     

    There's also the issue of privacy and control of your own data. Steam and Google are  bad enough. The last thing I want is some company able to claim ownership and lock me out of everything on my hard drive or even just be able to snoop through it all at will.

    The only time I ever see the PC dying is if people are able to store huge amounts of data on a tablet and project it very easily onto a big screen TV which then plays games flawlessly as if it were a monitor. In other words it ain't happening any time soon.

     

     

     

  • HokieHokie Member UncommonPosts: 1,063
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    ...

    But the biggest reason that PC sales have been falling is one that tablet enthusiasts tend to ignore:  PCs last longer--and in particular, last longer than they did 10 or 15 years ago.  If you used to replace your PC every 3 years and now do so every 5 years, you've just reduced your PC purchases by 40%--even though you use the PC just as much as you did before.

    ...

    Not sure if you'll catch this Quizz, but I have a theory about the focused part of your post. I would love to hear your opinion on this.

    I personally think the longevity of PC and PC components are only a part of that reason.

    One thing that really has to answered first is how are they determining the drop? Is it because of a drop in pre-built PC sales? If so you and I know that figure then becomes very erroneous. Or are they tracking on how many desktop CPU's are being sold? Maybe OS licensing? Video cards?

     

    Well that question isnt even relevant to my theory, and what I wanted your opinion on. (but it is an important question to the whole debate)

    My theory is that because more and more game developers are cross-platforming their games, X-box, PlayStation, PC,  that the limitations of what a console can do, compared to a PC, are causing a slowdown in pushing the boundaries of current technology. Meaning do we really need faster bus or (LDT) speeds, larger and faster CPU's, faster and broader bandwidth memory, when we have to wait 6-8 years for consoles to become relevant again?

    Developers will always work with, and towards, the lowest limitation as long as it has the highest return on investment.

    So in the end that means less of a need to upgrade and build (or buy) a new system. I think this is one of the main reasons we're seeing a slowdown.

     

    Skyrim is a perfect example. Could anyone with a decent PC and video card go back to playing vanilla Skyrim without the hi-rez texture packs, the increases view distances, the greater object density, and NPC A.I., and so on. I know I couldnt.

    As a matter of fact now that I can actually see what a $1k PC can do Im overly critical of most games that come out now.

     

    Now I am biased, I dont hate consoles, not at all. I just think they are limiting PC gaming and development overall because of cross-platforming. Well that and the fact that a console at its time of market release is 1-2 development cycles behind current PC capabilities. Imagine how far they are behind in cycles after 6-8 years (of virtual stagnation).

     

    (sorry about the multi-edits)

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  • RobsolfRobsolf Member RarePosts: 4,607
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    If the PC is dead in five years, the most likely culprit will be the collapse of human civilization.  If electricity is basically unavailable, or worse, we're all dead, then the death of the PC will be an afterthought.

    Kinda reminds me of the Gold argument.  "Buy gold cuz currency is going down the tubes!!!"

    If currency goes down the tubes, no one will give a flying crap about gold.  Water?  Food?  Don't make me kill ya for it.  image

    Until a device comes down the pipe that does everything a PC can do better/cheaper/faster/easier, it will be around.  And the criteria aren't even close to being met.

  • achesomaachesoma Member RarePosts: 1,768
    In 5 years?  No way in hell.  The PC will die when the human brain can be modified into a cyberbrain via cybernetic enhancements.  Something along the line of Ghost in the Shell.  Yes, one day this will happen. 
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  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 43,975
    I plan to be cremated and buried inside my laptop...... which I'll still have 35 years from now.  (maybe even the same one) image

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  • MMOredfalconMMOredfalcon Member UncommonPosts: 167

     

    Daja Vu anyone? Think I have been reading this same thread every year for like the past 15 years. So really can't see it happening anytime soon.

    Remember...in the 80's, by now we were also supposed to be done away with gas powered cars and have all flying cars and floating devices...and be living on the moon and mars. Still not seen any of that  happening.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,483
    Originally posted by Mr.SeriousGuy

    the PC wont die in 5 years but a few PC manufacturers will . dell and hp not doing so well and sony getting rid of the vaio laptops is just what people who want to hype things sight but you know what tablet and smart phone sales are cooling !?!?!?! will apple go bankrupt in 5 years !?!?! no . most likely not . 

    the problem is that many people buy the parts and put a computer together because they can get more out of what their paying for . you want a gaming PC do you buy a off the rack $1k - $1.5k computer that doesn't even have 2 brand new high end gpus in it ? dell sold people 10 year old technology at new prices . its not the end of PC's just the dwindling of premade PC's . hell even if your not using it for gaming you can probably buy the parts and put one together cheaper and its not like you have to solder anything it all  

    About a century ago, there were around 300 American car companies.  Now we're down to 2.  That didn't mean that everyone stopped driving cars.

  • PrecusorPrecusor Member UncommonPosts: 3,589

    PC gaming will not likely die for the foreseeable future.

     

     

  • DeathmachinePTDeathmachinePT Member UncommonPosts: 119
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    The thing that you need to remember about cloud computing is that for many purposes, doing computations is cheap, but transmitting the results of those computations is expensive.  Even for many cloud computing or HPC purposes, often the bottleneck is in reading in data or passing data between racks of computers, not in doing actual computations.  If it's cheaper to do computations locally than it is to transmit the results of the computations, cloud computing can't help you.

    Yes but for LANs, schools, universities, companies it's seems very viable. It would make upgrading, maintaining, fixing and no longer would you have computers that outperform or waste their potential according to their use probably even reduce power consumption.

     

    Also I see a space for local PC services that stream processing power if exists full coverage by fiber cable in a region , you can look at  cable providers and they can still profitable even after creating hundreds of stations to boost the quality of the signal a terminal processing service would be similar in logistics. 

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  • AeonbladesAeonblades Member Posts: 2,083
    Originally posted by Rigamortis

    First off,  I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000 I bought at Radio Shack back in the late 80's.  I also studied the architecture of the 8088 / 8086 chip.  Since then....I have owned and built more PC's then I can remember.  On the weekends I listen to a guy on the radio who does a Tech Show.  He is very knowledgeable and I respect his opinion the majority of the time.

    However,  this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with.  He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years.  He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets".  Sure,  the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular.  However,  with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards,  there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die.  Thoughts?

    -Rig

    PC will never die. Become a niche market eventually? I can see that. But any true gamer or enthusiast will never settle for a tablet that can't do half of what a desktop can do.

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  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,483
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    The thing that you need to remember about cloud computing is that for many purposes, doing computations is cheap, but transmitting the results of those computations is expensive.  Even for many cloud computing or HPC purposes, often the bottleneck is in reading in data or passing data between racks of computers, not in doing actual computations.  If it's cheaper to do computations locally than it is to transmit the results of the computations, cloud computing can't help you.

    Yes but for LANs, schools, universities, companies it's seems very viable. It would make upgrading, maintaining, fixing and no longer would you have computers that outperform or waste their potential according to their use probably even reduce power consumption.

     

    Also I see a space for local PC services that stream processing power if exists full coverage by fiber cable in a region , you can look at  cable providers and they can still profitable even after creating hundreds of stations to boost the quality of the signal a terminal processing service would be similar in logistics. 

    Ever tried to use a thin client?  It works all right for some light duty things like e-mail.  But if the screen isn't mostly static, it quickly becomes obvious that for many tasks, it isn't as good as even fairly low end hardware running the programs locally.

    Cloud computing is great for things where you send a little bit of data over of what computations you want done, then computers to massive amounts of computations, then send a little bit of data back to tell you the result.  But I can't think of any consumer applications off-hand that fit that model.

  • AdamaiAdamai Member UncommonPosts: 476

    well i hope they can make a 32" tablet with HD graphic processors which has 2 ggb of ddr5 ram and duel GPU'S  with over 16 gig  of system memmory and 2 terrabytes of storage space which runs like 4 raid 0 drives!!! oh yea and internet connection through hardwire with a gig/lan not that wanky 10/100 wireless shit you get with tabs at the momment.. so yea it could happen lol oh and it can not cost a penny more than 500.  which is what im pretty much running now.. i seriously doubt tablets will take over pc's they wont even come close. as the tech is born for tabs to be more powerful the home based pc will also advance to the point of unimaginable power.. even now a desktop pc is untouchable by all hand held devices  and laptops. the sheer fact a pc is future proof for upto 6 years before you find you may need a new mother board is victory enough. the problem with phones tablets and laptops is!! once its out of date its basically trash! you can not upgrade them so that keeps the pc on top all the time and for ever. i have no doubt pc's will get a little smaller. but as they say !!! bigger is always better.  just take the specs of an average pc with 8 gig of ram 500 gig storage space and a entry level mid range gaming card!! at the very least its high dep! its got high resolution  massive storage nice cooling and its blistering fast as the chip as a base comparrison are usualy a minimum of quad core... now comapre it to the xbox 1 or ps4!!!  both these machines do not come close to what i just listed and thats a 3 year old spec !   so its safe to assume consoles are a way way way off taking over tablets will never stand a chance.  and if it ever did happen no one would buy them as they cost too much are too klunky and clumbsy to use for games and very very unresponsive and well move the wrong way and your signal is cut off. the power drains too quickly too.  so no not ever going to happen pc's are the future it wont be long until you will be stepping into a pc created realm which is painted on 4 walls of a spare room in your home using lasers  where you simply step into the middle  wearing the odd sensor to play the game!!! for years these tech devs have been looking for ways to make computer gaming healthier and its just around the corner..  no more sitting on your ass with a calculator lol time to actually do the hard work your self.  so no more fat kids dominating world of warcraft hahahah...  

    i dont own a tablet because they are too rtestricting and dont do much of anything other than store memmos and silly apps silly people make for other silly people. that dont work too well lol

  • Ket_VilianoKet_Viliano Member UncommonPosts: 271
    You can take my PC when you pry it from my cold, dead hands.
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Tablets are just toys at the end of the day, you need a PC to do anything at all serious, and while home users might become more laptop friendly, i don't see the tablets as being more than a 'toy' to keep the kids amused. image
  • pantaropantaro Member RarePosts: 515
    sounds like he was attempting verbal click bait to me lol most rediculious thing i have ever heard. the pc is too ingrained into our society to just go poof. I dont care how popular tablet or mobile get,still doesnt do for me what building a powerful pc with several monitors does. i could see the designs of pc's and their components changing in the future as components become more powerful and potentially smaller.
  • Octagon7711Octagon7711 Member LegendaryPosts: 9,004
    I'm thinking government agencies and large businesses will never stop using a pc.  A lot of companies still use Windows XP.   A lot of their software was designed for XP so in order for them to upgrade they would have to upgrade all of their very expensive custom made software.  Five years from now they might be running Win7.

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  • iridescenceiridescence Member UncommonPosts: 1,552

    PCs are great value: for around $1000 or below  you can get one machine that you can play games,  do work, watch TV, listen to music. Good luck finding a tablet to do all those things half as well as a PC does. Lack of portability is really the only downside and if you don't travel much it's not really that much of a big deal.

     

     

  • MendelMendel Member LegendaryPosts: 5,609
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    If the PC is dead in five years, the most likely culprit will be the collapse of human civilization.  If electricity is basically unavailable, or worse, we're all dead, then the death of the PC will be an afterthought.

    Future generations of archaeologists won't like this, Quiz.

    The first PC I owned was the 4th computer I owned.  A couple of Apple II+s, and a MIndset (an 80186 based machine with the first graphics co-processor, it was MS-DOS 2.0 compatible, but not IBM compatible -- wouldn't run Lotus or many other popular PC programs), followed by an Amiga 500 and finally I bit the bullet and bought an 80186-based IBM compatible.  All of these pale in comparison to the first PC I worked with, a friend's Southwest Technical Products home-built computer, using an 6800 processor (I think).

    PC's have another inherent advantage over tablets -- I've never sat on a PC and broken it (yet).

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Originally posted by Rigamortis

    First off,  I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000 I bought at Radio Shack back in the late 80's.  I also studied the architecture of the 8088 / 8086 chip.  Since then....I have owned and built more PC's then I can remember.  On the weekends I listen to a guy on the radio who does a Tech Show.  He is very knowledgeable and I respect his opinion the majority of the time.

    However,  this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with.  He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years.  He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets".  Sure,  the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular.  However,  with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards,  there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die.  Thoughts?

    -Rig

    With all due respect your radio guy sounds very limited and pretty foolish.

     

    I'm not planning on throwing out any of my 250k worth of Cad/Cam, Production/Office software  and Workstations anytime soon. 

     

    My shop also has about 4 million worth of NC CO2 laser cutter's, NC Punches, EDM's, Press Brakes, NC Milling machines and NC lathes.

    All my machines from about 1999 and newer all have PC Microsoft Windows NT based controls, the majority of the NC controller's these days are mfg. by Siemens

     

    PC's aren't going anywhere, anytime soon.

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  • rnor6084rnor6084 Member UncommonPosts: 111

    Oh good lord not this again.

     

     

  • dreamscaperdreamscaper Member UncommonPosts: 1,592
    Originally posted by Krimzin

    Will never happen.
    PC Gaming will evolve but you will never see the end of the PC. Its like saying that Cell phones are on their way out.

     

    20 years ago people would have said the same thing about landline phones.

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  • ZyllosZyllos Member UncommonPosts: 537

    The only reason why the PC lost market share is because the "average" user of a PC in the past just wanted to use random chat programs and surf the web. Why buy an immobile piece of equipment just to load up a webpage? Hence why the Tablet is big right now.

    But, want the play the latest MMO or high end graphical game? You have to have computing power and GPUs along with high end CPUs is the only way to do with current technology.

    Sure, there some time in the future where a smart phone-like device will have the power of today's desktop PC but that time isn't now or in the near future.

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