A lot of us said the 1080 will be delayed, there's no way they can do a hard launch the way they are implying. There will be a lot of supply issues, and most reasonable people expected that to be with the GDDR5X. Some people said that there is no way nVidia could be "lying" and even made some bets....
Here was my wager ------------------------------------------------------------------ 'yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this. How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?' -------------------------------------------------------------------
There apparently are a lot of supply issues. This has been a very soft launch, I don't think anyone can really argue otherwise with a straight face, and the end isn't in sight yet. They have been available in very limited numbers, but certainly not wide availability. If you have a card, congrats, and I'll leave it at that. If you want a card, you are either going to pay a lot of extra money, or you are going to pay full MSRP (and then some) and just wait in the queue.
So since then, we've seen that same bet morph from a 1080 to a 1070, from June to October, and now an attempt to deflect by saying "well they are having problems, but not for the reason you said they would be." (if I may paraphrase).
I find it very amusing. Had you just posted the news, and not included the bit about "I have known this for a while now" it would have been actual, interesting news. But with that added little bit in there, it became flame bait since that is in no way congruent with your original statements, and we of course jumped on it.
There is a lot of evidence that is contrary to the news articles; however, for the purposes of this discussion, it's interesting but rather immaterial. The cards are in short supply, no matter what the reason is, and most of this discussion has revolved around nVidia's ability to actually support a "wide availability" on their release date. I think we've already established that nVidia wasn't able to do that, so now the conversation has shifted from "if" to "when"... and we still aren't there yet, for whatever the reason.
However, congratulations on finally getting the Rift. I am serious about that - I know you've been excited about it for a long time now (to put it mildly).
I have already decided to go with AMD this time around. I am figuring if I should get a 480 or 2 when the custom cards come out or wait to see what the 490 and other Vega will bring.
I'm also going to go with the 480. I just can't see myself spending $700 to $900 on a dam videocard.
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
I have already decided to go with AMD this time around. I am figuring if I should get a 480 or 2 when the custom cards come out or wait to see what the 490 and other Vega will bring.
I'm also going to go with the 480. I just can't see myself spending $700 to $900 on a dam videocard.
I'm leaning toward the 480 for my wife's computer as well. They are having supply issues as well... so I guess I'm waiting on non-reference 3rd party cards to actually get in stock.
A lot of us said the 1080 will be delayed, there's no way they can do a hard launch the way they are implying. There will be a lot of supply issues, and most reasonable people expected that to be with the GDDR5X. Some people said that there is no way nVidia could be "lying" and even made some bets....
Here was my wager ------------------------------------------------------------------ 'yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this. How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?' -------------------------------------------------------------------
There apparently are a lot of supply issues. This has been a very soft launch, I don't think anyone can really argue otherwise with a straight face, and the end isn't in sight yet. They have been available in very limited numbers, but certainly not wide availability. If you have a card, congrats, and I'll leave it at that. If you want a card, you are either going to pay a lot of extra money, or you are going to pay full MSRP (and then some) and just wait in the queue.
So since then, we've seen that same bet morph from a 1080 to a 1070, from June to October, and now an attempt to deflect by saying "well they are having problems, but not for the reason you said they would be." (if I may paraphrase).
I find it very amusing. Had you just posted the news, and not included the bit about "I have known this for a while now" it would have been actual, interesting news. But with that added little bit in there, it became flame bait since that is in no way congruent with your original statements, and we of course jumped on it.
There is a lot of evidence that is contrary to the news articles; however, for the purposes of this discussion, it's interesting but rather immaterial. The cards are in short supply, no matter what the reason is, and most of this discussion has revolved around nVidia's ability to actually support a "wide availability" on their release date. I think we've already established that nVidia wasn't able to do that, so now the conversation has shifted from "if" to "when"... and we still aren't there yet, for whatever the reason.
However, congratulations on finally getting the Rift. I am serious about that - I know you've been excited about it for a long time now (to put it mildly).
so again.
My prediction is not based on RAM, parts or anything else related to supply.
so as a result the news story that I posted is in fact something I do not really care about I just thought it would be of something of intrest for other people given that there are 5 references to the delays not being related to RAM and 0 articles saying that it is. HOWVER, that fact has no bearing on my prediction.
Do you understand why?
oh and I could have very easily gotten the 1080 in my hand by June however to be fair I would have had to order it but these days nearly everything has to be bought online anyway
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
so again. I could have very easily rolled a 7 or 11 at the craps table however to be fair I would have had to roll the dice multiple times to get that and I crapped out before I got there.
so again. I could have very easily rolled a 7 or 11 at the craps table however to be fair I would have had to roll the dice multiple times to get that and I crapped out before I got there.
Do you understand why?
yes.
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
This is why exit polls are taken seriously because statistically they are very accurate
which is also why making guess based on historical patterns is usually the best way to go if you can find a pattern that would make sense within the context
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
Brexit polls are completely counter to everything this troll says.
Regarding his #4, not surprising SEANMCTROLL has the audacity to claim the UK is incapable of producing polls "correctly".
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
These are just off the top of my head.... one is pretty darn recent. Exit polls, and political polling in general, are notoriously poor. You should probably choose a better analogy.
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
And I'll let our resident math major decide if he wants to school you on statistics
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
And I'll let our resident math major decide if he wants to school you on statistics
is the image you posted an exit poll or not?
I think you guys are not clear on what an exit poll actually is and how a media stated prediction isnt always an exit poll
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
And I'll let our resident math major decide if he wants to school you on statistics
Basically what you are suggesting is that the chances of Moores Law actually happening as it states is about the same chance as you have at winning at craps each 3 years
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
so again. I could have very easily rolled a 7 or 11 at the craps table however to be fair I would have had to roll the dice multiple times to get that and I crapped out before I got there.
Do you understand why?
yes.
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
This is why exit polls are taken seriously because statistically they are very accurate
which is also why making guess based on historical patterns is usually the best way to go if you can find a pattern that would make sense within the context
You're mixing probability with actual outcomes. What you're referencing isn't an exit poll. Exit polls don't make guesses based on historical patterns. Exit polls try and gather data points for what actually happened (what did the voter actually tick on the card) and release that before an officially released decision.
That isn't what we're talking about here. We're talking about probability and predictions based on historic behavior. That's not an exit poll. If you extrapolate and define a pattern, then test outcomes of that pattern based on a consistent set of variables then you might be able to draw a conclusion, but you didn't do that. You made some guesses based on your personal perception of history and then somehow felt that was like an exit poll. It's not and you're using bad logical reasoning.
no I am actually talking about exit polls and yes I know what they are
randomly ask a sample of people out of the population of people who are leaving the polling station has prooven (because of statistics) to be extreemly accurate without the need of asking the entire population.
no confusion and I do understand the difference between population, sample and standard deviation
My suggestion here is that given 1. moores law
2. a historical pattern that has repeated 9 times over 24 years nearly exactly the same that is in line with moores law 3. that its reasonable to predict it will happen again.
more over...it did exactly that.
I predicted that most of the cards will be 'released' this year based on patterns I have seen from other generation of cards and it has.
and everyone should keep in mind that the orginal statement in this thread as I recall was that this new generation of video cards were not going to be released this year. at all..zero nada
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
so again. I could have very easily rolled a 7 or 11 at the craps table however to be fair I would have had to roll the dice multiple times to get that and I crapped out before I got there.
Do you understand why?
yes.
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
This is why exit polls are taken seriously because statistically they are very accurate
which is also why making guess based on historical patterns is usually the best way to go if you can find a pattern that would make sense within the context
You're mixing probability with actual outcomes. What you're referencing isn't an exit poll. Exit polls don't make guesses based on historical patterns. Exit polls try and gather data points for what actually happened (what did the voter actually tick on the card) and release that before an officially released decision.
That isn't what we're talking about here. We're talking about probability and predictions based on historic behavior. That's not an exit poll. If you extrapolate and define a pattern, then test outcomes of that pattern based on a consistent set of variables then you might be able to draw a conclusion, but you didn't do that. You made some guesses based on your personal perception of history and then somehow felt that was like an exit poll. It's not and you're using bad logical reasoning.
no I am actually talking about exit polls and yes I know what they are
randomly ask a sample of people out of the population of people who are leaving the polling station has prooven (because of statistics) to be extreemly accurate without the need of asking the entire population.
no confusion and I do understand the difference between population, sample and standard deviation
My suggestion here is that given 1. moores law
2. a historical pattern that has repeated 9 times over 24 years nearly exactly the same that is in line with moores law 3. that its reasonable to predict it will happen again.
more over...it did exactly that.
I predicted that most of the cards will be 'released' this year based on patterns I have seen from other generation of cards and it has.
Yeah, I get that you're talking about exit polls. They have no relevance here. You're not polling anything after the fact to gather information about choices. An exit poll would be asking users what card they purchased, how much, how long it took to get it, and similar questions, and then drawing conclusions based on that. You're not polling people leaving the voting station. Did you just throw out the term standard deviation because it sounds important? That has nothing to do with anything presented so far.
We don't have an exit poll. There is no margin of error, or deviation, because there hasn't been a poll of user data.
Your suggestion here is based on some random bits of information with nothing to support your conclusions except conjecture.
I predict that cards will release this year too, just like they have over the last 24 years. That's not a revelation. Oh, and they're not releasing like you claim. You're just redefining terms to suit your prediction.
I agree that exit polls have no relevance here.
I simply said 'statistically speaking given 9 times in a row it has happened the same its likely to happen again and statistics is often very accurate like it is in exit polls' then, everything turned fucking exit polls. I would give a left nut to have people stay on point.
The very original prediction made by not me was: 'these next generation cards are not coming out this year at all period in any shape or form'
My prediction originally was: 'it looks likely based on past patterns that they actually will come out this year and more than one version. more over, Nividia is not in the habit of releasing a product that they know full well they can not deliver on' I based that prediction again, based on past patterns and Moores law
that is what this 9 billion page topic has been about
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
guys!
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
guys!
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
guys!
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
Guys! We are getting off topic!
...Followed by....
But let me go back to that off topic topic.
That he brought into the conversation in the first place.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
guys!
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
Guys! We are getting off topic!
...Followed by....
But let me go back to that off topic topic.
to be fair I think that is the only zing toward me that has been actually good.
No offense but is attacking me the only thing you do on this thread?
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Exit polls are accurate? You must not have been watching recent elections in Italy, UK, etc, etc
1. I havent 2. do they even have exit polls? 3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically? 4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
1. That's pretty clear at this point 2. Yes 3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars 4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
guys!
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
You do realize that the BBC and Fox news are staffed primarily by REPORTERS right.
I didn't say they CONDUCTED the polls.
These are standard exit polls being conducted by the same organizations that have been doing them for literally decades. Just so we're clear as I'm guessing you don't actually know what an exit poll is. Exit polls are polls where the person is leaving the voting building and they are approached by a pollster asking how the just voted. Exit polls were traditionally considered the most accurate poll as it was as close to the point of voting and more importantly after the person had made their vote (I.e. they couldn't change their mind seeing as how they already voted).
Polls in generally are becoming increasingly less accurate for a multitude of reasons, but the primary reason is that younger generations are choosing not to engage the pollsters, so the polls are not getting what's called a representative sample.
As far as statistics working well, you're not going to find any argument here. The problem is you are conflating a poll with a statistic. A statistic is fact, x number of y happened. You can't dispute that say X number of fatalities occurred via motor vehicle in one year, that's a hard number, it's not subject to whim and changing political winds. You can poll a person who says "yes, I will vote for X" and 3 days later he decides that he isn't going to vote for X and instead votes for Y.
That is why polls have ungodly large margins of error, if you pay attention to that you'll notice they're generally +/- 5%, which in the statistical world means the data is utterly meaningless. It's not statistically significant when it has that large of a margin of error.
Either way I'm not going to continue arguing the point with you.
TL:DR Polls =/= statistics.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
This thread has become so ridiculous now. I'm reading some of the comments and I must say they are beautifully written, but way off topic in my opinion. Statistics, exit polls and Moores law. Those are just a few. I personally don't really mind, but sometimes you can take a topic and over analyze where it becomes absurd.
This thread has become so ridiculous now. I'm reading some of the comments and I must say they are beautifully written, but way off topic in my opinion. Statistics, exit polls and Moores law. Those are just a few. I personally don't really mind, but sometimes you can take a topic and over analyze where it becomes absurd.
Conversations morph and change direction like a river snaking through the amazon.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
Comments
A lot of us said the 1080 will be delayed, there's no way they can do a hard launch the way they are implying. There will be a lot of supply issues, and most reasonable people expected that to be with the GDDR5X. Some people said that there is no way nVidia could be "lying" and even made some bets....
There apparently are a lot of supply issues. This has been a very soft launch, I don't think anyone can really argue otherwise with a straight face, and the end isn't in sight yet. They have been available in very limited numbers, but certainly not wide availability. If you have a card, congrats, and I'll leave it at that. If you want a card, you are either going to pay a lot of extra money, or you are going to pay full MSRP (and then some) and just wait in the queue.
So since then, we've seen that same bet morph from a 1080 to a 1070, from June to October, and now an attempt to deflect by saying "well they are having problems, but not for the reason you said they would be." (if I may paraphrase).
I find it very amusing. Had you just posted the news, and not included the bit about "I have known this for a while now" it would have been actual, interesting news. But with that added little bit in there, it became flame bait since that is in no way congruent with your original statements, and we of course jumped on it.
There is a lot of evidence that is contrary to the news articles; however, for the purposes of this discussion, it's interesting but rather immaterial. The cards are in short supply, no matter what the reason is, and most of this discussion has revolved around nVidia's ability to actually support a "wide availability" on their release date. I think we've already established that nVidia wasn't able to do that, so now the conversation has shifted from "if" to "when"... and we still aren't there yet, for whatever the reason.
However, congratulations on finally getting the Rift. I am serious about that - I know you've been excited about it for a long time now (to put it mildly).
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
My prediction is not based on RAM, parts or anything else related to supply.
so as a result the news story that I posted is in fact something I do not really care about I just thought it would be of something of intrest for other people given that there are 5 references to the delays not being related to RAM and 0 articles saying that it is. HOWVER, that fact has no bearing on my prediction.
Do you understand why?
oh and I could have very easily gotten the 1080 in my hand by June however to be fair I would have had to order it but these days nearly everything has to be bought online anyway
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
I could have very easily rolled a 7 or 11 at the craps table however to be fair I would have had to roll the dice multiple times to get that and I crapped out before I got there.
Do you understand why?
what I understand about statistics is that if the exact same outcome is repeated 9 times in a row with a large population set (meaning variable possibles) then the chance of it being a 95 percentile outcome is usually very high
This is why exit polls are taken seriously because statistically they are very accurate
which is also why making guess based on historical patterns is usually the best way to go if you can find a pattern that would make sense within the context
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
2. do they even have exit polls?
3. are you sure without assuming that information you are getting is from exit polls specifically?
4. are you sure the said exit polls are done correctly?
yes exit polls in the US from my undestanding have only been wrong once in its history and that was the first election of Little Bush
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
Regarding his #4, not surprising SEANMCTROLL has the audacity to claim the UK is incapable of producing polls "correctly".
I am assuming your guys know what an exit poll is vs a random prediction
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
I think you guys are not clear on what an exit poll actually is and how a media stated prediction isnt always an exit poll
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
no confusion and I do understand the difference between population, sample and standard deviation
My suggestion here is that given
1. moores law
2. a historical pattern that has repeated 9 times over 24 years nearly exactly the same that is in line with moores law
3. that its reasonable to predict it will happen again. more over...it did exactly that. I predicted that most of the cards will be 'released' this year based on patterns I have seen from other generation of cards and it has.
and everyone should keep in mind that the orginal statement in this thread as I recall was that this new generation of video cards were not going to be released this year. at all..zero nada
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
I simply said 'statistically speaking given 9 times in a row it has happened the same its likely to happen again and statistics is often very accurate like it is in exit polls' then, everything turned fucking exit polls. I would give a left nut to have people stay on point.
The very original prediction made by not me was:
'these next generation cards are not coming out this year at all period in any shape or form'
My prediction originally was:
'it looks likely based on past patterns that they actually will come out this year and more than one version. more over, Nividia is not in the habit of releasing a product that they know full well they can not deliver on' I based that prediction again, based on past patterns and Moores law
that is what this 9 billion page topic has been about
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
2. Yes
3. Yes, unless the BBC are bull faced liars
4. Yes
What you are not realizing is that exit polls require people to actually participate in them. While that was "normal" up until now, many people (including many trump supporters) are simply choosing not to participate in exit polls. Same things happened with "brexiters" and with the euroseptic voters in Italy.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
1. 'exit polls' was used by me as an example of how statistics works well '..as in exit polls' we are getting WAY off topic by still talking about fucking exit polls
2. the vast majority of media predicted election outcomes from the BBC to FOX news are NOT EXIT POLLS! unless they are EXPLICTLY saying 'exit poll' and they are saying it on the night of the election then its not an exit poll
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
...Followed by....
But let me go back to that off topic topic.
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
No offense but is attacking me the only thing you do on this thread?
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me
You do realize that the BBC and Fox news are staffed primarily by REPORTERS right.
I didn't say they CONDUCTED the polls.
These are standard exit polls being conducted by the same organizations that have been doing them for literally decades. Just so we're clear as I'm guessing you don't actually know what an exit poll is. Exit polls are polls where the person is leaving the voting building and they are approached by a pollster asking how the just voted. Exit polls were traditionally considered the most accurate poll as it was as close to the point of voting and more importantly after the person had made their vote (I.e. they couldn't change their mind seeing as how they already voted).
Polls in generally are becoming increasingly less accurate for a multitude of reasons, but the primary reason is that younger generations are choosing not to engage the pollsters, so the polls are not getting what's called a representative sample.
As far as statistics working well, you're not going to find any argument here. The problem is you are conflating a poll with a statistic. A statistic is fact, x number of y happened. You can't dispute that say X number of fatalities occurred via motor vehicle in one year, that's a hard number, it's not subject to whim and changing political winds. You can poll a person who says "yes, I will vote for X" and 3 days later he decides that he isn't going to vote for X and instead votes for Y.
That is why polls have ungodly large margins of error, if you pay attention to that you'll notice they're generally +/- 5%, which in the statistical world means the data is utterly meaningless. It's not statistically significant when it has that large of a margin of error.
Either way I'm not going to continue arguing the point with you.
TL:DR Polls =/= statistics.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
This thread has become so ridiculous now. I'm reading some of the comments and I must say they are beautifully written, but way off topic in my opinion. Statistics, exit polls and Moores law. Those are just a few. I personally don't really mind, but sometimes you can take a topic and over analyze where it becomes absurd.
Conversations morph and change direction like a river snaking through the amazon.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다