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The Decline of MMOs

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  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342
    edited December 2016
    He who can, does; he who cannot, teaches.


  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    edited December 2016
    If we don't count older Eastern ports, we're getting less than one major release a year in the last 5. It's pretty bad.


  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    Dullahan said:
    If we don't count older Eastern ports, we're getting less than one major release a year in the last 5. It's pretty bad.
    here is how we know its a 'major release'. we read about it as a sponsored article on one site, then another site, then we watch a sponsored interview on another site and then we hear some sponsored theory crafting about the game and then its news. after that it no longer needs to be sponsered because it has its own momentum and then finally.

    because you here so much about it, its major.

    the only thing 'major' about it is the amount of dollars gone into marketing. Ironic isnt it? what makes a game 'major' at the end of the day is how much is spent on marketing.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342
    Dullahan said:
    If we don't count older Eastern ports, we're getting less than one major release a year in the last 5. It's pretty bad.
    It is not bad, it is called unreasonable expectations and lack of business sense.
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    edited December 2016
    DMKano said:
    josko9 said:
    How come MMOs have never been as popular as they are today?

    You do realize that apart from WoW, nobody was even close to touching 1mil active players 10 years ago? Just because WoW lost at least 2/3 of it's playerbase (due to better alternatives) over the years, that doesn't mean that the MMOs are declining. WoW is declining, FFXIV is growing, ESO is growing, and I'm sure many others are doing fine as well.

    When MMOs go back to 100k of active players (at best), then by all means talk about the decline of the genre. As for now, we have some MMOs that are supported by several millions of active players.

    I get it that some veterans don't like the newer MMOs, but please don't act like the majority doesn't either. 
    Neither ESO nor FFXIV are growing in terms of "active playerbase", over a period of time with constant stream of increasing players.

    MMOs today dont experience steady growth, <snip>
    So the normal operarional state of MMOs (between updates etc...) is steady population decline
    As far as active subscribers go MMOs look like a standard product with a standard product life cycle curve: initial slow-ish growth; faster growth; plateau; decline; longish tail. (The curve isn't smooth of course because products get refreshed - whether its an mmo expansion or an updated car model.)  

    WoW is no different - just bigger; over 100M accounts means on average it has lost c. 8M player a year. Just took longer to reach its plateau and enter the decline phase. 

    What - perhaps? - has changed is "product life expectancy". How long mmos will last; how long a developer has to make a profit.

    Problem: expectations tend to drive what is spent on a game. Money isn't spent because an mmo isn't expected to last; so the game doesn't last because money isn't spent. A self-fulfilling prophesy.
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    Yeah, old MMOs had a curve. Those charts today look more like a pyramid /\.


  • RenoakuRenoaku Member EpicPosts: 3,157
    Last great MMO I actually played was (World OF Warcraft) When they came out with the expansions (Blizzard Ruined it) Other than that I played other ones that quickly declined good at the start like "Arche Age" "RF Online" those familiar with the old games but all decline quickly...

    Its really the developers of games, and Game - Play that ruins games, I honestly expect (TERA) to shut down before long, or another company to buy it because I can't even stand the game last time I went back Buggy UI just not playable...
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    If MMO's were not meant to last for a year, then fewer releases would have impact, but it would be ridiculous to suggest that this is the case, what is happening is that there are fewer releases because its a saturated market, and breaking into it for a developer is probably the hardest thing ever, in case anybody hadn't noticed, us MMO players are not the types to just grin and bear it if something is wrong with a game, we tend to talk about the fact, a lot, so a game has to be really good to stand a chance of breaking into the market, not a bad thing imo as competition inevitably leads to the creation of better games and advances the genre, and like wildebeests the weak, the lame, are the first to die, only the strong survive.

  • MoiraeMoirae Member RarePosts: 3,318
    edited December 2016
    josko9 said:
    How come MMOs have never been as popular as they are today?

    You do realize that apart from WoW, nobody was even close to touching 1mil active players 10 years ago? Just because WoW lost at least 2/3 of it's playerbase (due to better alternatives) over the years, that doesn't mean that the MMOs are declining. WoW is declining, FFXIV is growing, ESO is growing, and I'm sure many others are doing fine as well.

    When MMOs go back to 100k of active players (at best), then by all means talk about the decline of the genre. As for now, we have some MMOs that are supported by several millions of active players.

    I get it that some veterans don't like the newer MMOs, but please don't act like the majority doesn't either. 
    THAT is completely a matter of opinion and nothing more. The fact is that we don't know sub numbers and only WoW has ever released any. Plus WoW stopped releasing the numbers when they reached 5.4 million subs not long ago.

    The games you're talking about aren't growing, it's just the rest of us looking for games to play. 

    MMO's are declining. Look online, and you see mostly complaints. Every time a new game is released, there are glowing reviews... at first. Then after a few months, people start complaining. MMO's could be so much more than they are. They aren't because they don't want to build full games anymore. There are less features offered in games than ever before so that they are all pretty much the same with different graphics. They want a quick buck before the players get sick of it and move on.
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    edited December 2016
    WoW is an anomaly in scale only. Long-term growth is actually consistent with most early genre titles before timesinks and sense of accomplishment were replaced with instant gratification and "accessibility".


  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Member EpicPosts: 6,601
    Old games took years to get to the 50k -500k subs. Through marketing today's games get there from day one. Both sets have settled to average numbers of a couple hundred thousand. 
    Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    edited December 2016
    Old games took years to get to the 50k -500k subs. Through marketing today's games get there from day one. Both sets have settled to average numbers of a couple hundred thousand. 
    Not really. Old games got popular quickly. They just grew over time because they offered something for players to do for longer.

    Also, there was about 1/3 of the people on the internet back when MMOs became big, so sporting a few 100k subs in 2016 is pretty trash for mainstream MMOs when games created on a few million 15 years ago were able to achieve the same.


  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,383
    I'm curiously ok with the state of MMOs out today.

    No, no one has released what ~I~ think would be the perfect game. But there are a lot of good games out there - some a new releases, others are just improvements and iterations on existing titles. There is much more to play than I have time to play them at any rate.
  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332
    edited December 2016
    I would say one big reason is RoI. To make a modern mmo requires a huge investment in time, resources and money. You aren't likely to see a return on investment until 2 or 3 years after launch, possibly not at all.

    It's much cheaper to make a game for mobile devices that can reach a much larger audience . Which is why many developers have started to move their development to those platforms.

    Computers themselves are expensive, which limits your market substantially.

    Another is the time investment for the players. Players have to be willing to sacrifice significant parts of their real life for a virtual one.

    Other games can be played casually on their phones from work or travelling.
  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Gdemami said:
    He who can, does; he who cannot, teaches.
    Teaches? I thought it was "publish"?

    And does is not really enough in the gaming business. You can make a game and still fail miserably, you can even make a pretty good game but still fail due to some small thing.
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    Atlan99 said:
    I would say one big reason is RoI. To make a modern mmo requires a huge investment in time, resources and money. You aren't likely to see a return on investment until 2 or 3 years after launch, possibly not at all.

    It's much cheaper to make a game for mobile devices that can reach a much larger audience . Which is why many developers have started to move their development to those platforms.

    Computers themselves are expensive, which limits your market substantially.

    Another is the time investment for the players. Players have to be willing to sacrifice significant parts of their real life for a virtual one.

    Other games can be played casually on their phones from work or travelling.
    It's a huge investment of money to build them how mainstream studios do it. The fact that people like Visionary Realms have managed to achieve so much with probably less than a couple million shows you could easily finish an entire AAA quality game in 2017 for a fraction of what new studios are spending.

    Anyone that is spending over $50 million on a new MMO is doing it wrong, and is poorly managed.


  • fodell54fodell54 Member RarePosts: 865
    Gdemami said:
    He who can, does; he who cannot, teaches.


    Congrats on ripping off a Woody Allen quote in an MMO forum. You should have unlocked a new achievement for that gem.
  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332
    Dullahan said:
    Atlan99 said:
    I would say one big reason is RoI. To make a modern mmo requires a huge investment in time, resources and money. You aren't likely to see a return on investment until 2 or 3 years after launch, possibly not at all.

    It's much cheaper to make a game for mobile devices that can reach a much larger audience . Which is why many developers have started to move their development to those platforms.

    Computers themselves are expensive, which limits your market substantially.

    Another is the time investment for the players. Players have to be willing to sacrifice significant parts of their real life for a virtual one.

    Other games can be played casually on their phones from work or travelling.
    It's a huge investment of money to build them how mainstream studios do it. The fact that people like Visionary Realms have managed to achieve so much with probably less than a couple million shows you could easily finish an entire AAA quality game in 2017 for a fraction of what new studios are spending.

    Anyone that is spending over $50 million on a new MMO is doing it wrong, and is poorly managed.
    You're talking about a game that hasn't been released yet with graphics that aren't AAA quality for 2016/2017.

    Why don't we wait to see if the game is successful before we start declaring that this is the way to make AAA quality mmo's.

    That's not even considering the fact that you can make a mobile game for the fraction of that cost.
  • MaurgrimMaurgrim Member RarePosts: 1,327
    Decline?
    Let me say this LMAO

  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    Atlan99 said:
    Dullahan said:
    Atlan99 said:
    I would say one big reason is RoI. To make a modern mmo requires a huge investment in time, resources and money. You aren't likely to see a return on investment until 2 or 3 years after launch, possibly not at all.

    It's much cheaper to make a game for mobile devices that can reach a much larger audience . Which is why many developers have started to move their development to those platforms.

    Computers themselves are expensive, which limits your market substantially.

    Another is the time investment for the players. Players have to be willing to sacrifice significant parts of their real life for a virtual one.

    Other games can be played casually on their phones from work or travelling.
    It's a huge investment of money to build them how mainstream studios do it. The fact that people like Visionary Realms have managed to achieve so much with probably less than a couple million shows you could easily finish an entire AAA quality game in 2017 for a fraction of what new studios are spending.

    Anyone that is spending over $50 million on a new MMO is doing it wrong, and is poorly managed.
    You're talking about a game that hasn't been released yet with graphics that aren't AAA quality for 2016/2017.

    Why don't we wait to see if the game is successful before we start declaring that this is the way to make AAA quality mmo's.

    That's not even considering the fact that you can make a mobile game for the fraction of that cost.
    Their graphics are higher quality than any AAA game in pre-alpha. Even if they never quite reach that mark, going from good to outstanding should not = 150 million.

    Also, we're talking about MMOs. Mobile games are irrelevant.


  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332
    Dullahan said:
    Atlan99 said:
    Dullahan said:
    Atlan99 said:
    I would say one big reason is RoI. To make a modern mmo requires a huge investment in time, resources and money. You aren't likely to see a return on investment until 2 or 3 years after launch, possibly not at all.

    It's much cheaper to make a game for mobile devices that can reach a much larger audience . Which is why many developers have started to move their development to those platforms.

    Computers themselves are expensive, which limits your market substantially.

    Another is the time investment for the players. Players have to be willing to sacrifice significant parts of their real life for a virtual one.

    Other games can be played casually on their phones from work or travelling.
    It's a huge investment of money to build them how mainstream studios do it. The fact that people like Visionary Realms have managed to achieve so much with probably less than a couple million shows you could easily finish an entire AAA quality game in 2017 for a fraction of what new studios are spending.

    Anyone that is spending over $50 million on a new MMO is doing it wrong, and is poorly managed.
    You're talking about a game that hasn't been released yet with graphics that aren't AAA quality for 2016/2017.

    Why don't we wait to see if the game is successful before we start declaring that this is the way to make AAA quality mmo's.

    That's not even considering the fact that you can make a mobile game for the fraction of that cost.
    Their graphics are higher quality than any AAA game in pre-alpha. Even if they never quite reach that mark, going from good to outstanding should not = 150 million.

    Also, we're talking about MMOs. Mobile games are irrelevant.
    The discussion is on the decline of mmo's. The fact that mobile games are cheaper and have better chance of RoI with out risking as much capital is definitely pertinent to the discussion.

    Second you say the game is in pre-alpha. don't you think it's a little too soon to be calling the game a success?
  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Member EpicPosts: 6,601
    edited December 2016
    Dullahan said:
    Old games took years to get to the 50k -500k subs. Through marketing today's games get there from day one. Both sets have settled to average numbers of a couple hundred thousand. 
    Not really. Old games got popular quickly. They just grew over time because they offered something for players to do for longer.

    Also, there was about 1/3 of the people on the internet back when MMOs became big, so sporting a few 100k subs in 2016 is pretty trash for mainstream MMOs when games created on a few million 15 years ago were able to achieve the same.
    No they really didn't. They took years to climb. EQ took 3-4 years to get to 450k. The others never got even that high. 

    Yes there were less people.

    Games today release with 2-10 times more than old games peak from day 1. They end up at the old games stable base though. 

    Getting just as many subs in 2016 when there are 400+ MMO's on the market as games did in 2000 when there were 5 is pretty darn effective I'd say.

    But as stated before the biggest reason is Devs can make other games from other genres cheaper and get a far greater ROI. 
    Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
  • AeliousAelious Member RarePosts: 3,521
    Dullahan said:
    Old games took years to get to the 50k -500k subs. Through marketing today's games get there from day one. Both sets have settled to average numbers of a couple hundred thousand. 
    Not really. Old games got popular quickly. They just grew over time because they offered something for players to do for longer.

    Also, there was about 1/3 of the people on the internet back when MMOs became big, so sporting a few 100k subs in 2016 is pretty trash for mainstream MMOs when games created on a few million 15 years ago were able to achieve the same.
    No they really didn't. They took years to climb. EQ took 3-4 years to get to 450k. The others never got even that high. 

    Yes there were less people.

    Games today release with 2-10 times more than old games peak from day 1. They end up at the old games stable base though. 

    Yeah, tremendously less people. You'd have to do some ratio math to do a real comparison between now and then.
  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Member EpicPosts: 6,601
    Same with the number of games, and the expense of making a good modern game.
    Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
  • AeliousAelious Member RarePosts: 3,521
    edited December 2016
    This is true. Just meaning that when EQ released that got a lion's share of the available population at that time and created more (new to the genre) over time. No current release does that. This is in small part why it can be said that MMOs are in decline. Not dead, by no means, but just do not have the "umph" they once did and are not bringing many new people on like yesteryear. There's a lot of cannablizing going on.
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