No one knows how many people this game is going to bring in. Lets just all make sure we stay away from words like "wow killer" and the like, because we do know for the fact this will generate nothing like that. This is an INDIE MMO and yes it has "hype" on sites like this, but it's not going to be able to generate the kind of marketing to bring a mass playerbase, which is GREAT -- because this game isn't for kiddies. It's for fans of Brad's old games...they aren't easy, and they take a LOT of invested time. Two things a lot of players from the newest generation of MMO gamers do not like. I want this game to be successful as hell, while staying niche to the point that the community is small enough to work with Brad and his team to make an even better game moving forward. Community is what is lacking in all modern MMO's, my biggest hope is this game will bring community back to MMO gaming.
I really wish OP could just look forward to this game without having to always come here and prove to us that it will be huge. Why not just look forward to the game even with the possibility of it not being huge? What if it was certain to be small, niche game? I am very much looking forward to it, and that is regardless of any expectations. Just looks like it will be a solid game and I hope it succeeds. This has become like a strange fetish of yours.
I know you started with WoW (although I don't know what year), but it's almost like you have not followed the MMORPG world since then.
Originally posted by Scagweed22 is it the graphics? the repetativenesses? i mean what is the point? you could be so much more productive in real life Real life brings repetition and pointlessness too. The only thing real life offers is Great graphics. Its kinda expensive too and way to dependent on the cash shop. Totally pay to win as well. No thank you. Ill stick to my games.
What ensures that it wont be huge is that its a mmorpg.
MMORPGs are not huge anymore.
On top of that old school mmorpg - niche within a niche.
Yeah - it wont be huge unless you consider 50k players after 6 months "huge".
/agreed
"Sean (Murray) saying MP will be in the game is not remotely close to evidence that at the point of purchase people thought there was MP in the game." - SEANMCAD
The still unidentified 50k seems to be growing. 400k? Really? After 6 month? It is more likely the hype is rampant. It's okay to want something, and to want something to succeed, but temper the anticipation with a dash of reality. That way you won't be crushed by your own expectations.
It's not hype, it's common sense, read my previous two posts and then tell me that 50k is actually a realistic number.
And by the way, we are not saying that Pantheon will be played by 400k or by 1 Million people, that will depends on the quality of the game (concepts alone don't win awards in gaming). We are saying that the "potential" player base is over 500k, based on the numbers of people who plays and used to play EQ franchise added to people who used to play other Old School games (those are actual data).
On top of that 500k we could even add people who never played this kind of games and might be interested, but we don't have data for that, so since we are reasonable people, let's just stick with the "potential" number of 500k (The key word here is potential, not actual, I hope you understand the difference).
Common sense doesn't include an inflation rate. Especially not an inflation rate of 800%. (DMK's number to kitarad's number). And this is being used for actual numbers, not potential numbers. Some people are starting to perform calculations with these numbers in an attempt to show revenue. And that is anticipating 400k or 500k or 1m or 1.2m customers.
If you really want to take an extreme position, the "potential" player base is everyone on the planet, somewhere short of 8 billion people. But that's not in the ballpark of rational for any game. Something like that can (and should) be taken only as a humorous exaggeration. Your actual data for EQ1 is for EQ1 at a specific point in time, not current data, and does not account for the possibility that a good number of those players are no longer in the target market, or playing games, or even alive. That the number of people that were in that historical data point and have left have not been accounted for, and there is no data that indicates there are replacements just waiting to fill out those ranks.
I don't have a problem with projected numbers. I have a problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
personally i have no interest in it, same as i had zero interest in tera or wildstar or any next big thing games since swtor really. i would have probably tried out world of darkness but it got cancelled
The still unidentified 50k seems to be growing. 400k? Really? After 6 month? It is more likely the hype is rampant. It's okay to want something, and to want something to succeed, but temper the anticipation with a dash of reality. That way you won't be crushed by your own expectations.
It's not hype, it's common sense, read my previous two posts and then tell me that 50k is actually a realistic number.
And by the way, we are not saying that Pantheon will be played by 400k or by 1 Million people, that will depends on the quality of the game (concepts alone don't win awards in gaming). We are saying that the "potential" player base is over 500k, based on the numbers of people who plays and used to play EQ franchise added to people who used to play other Old School games (those are actual data).
On top of that 500k we could even add people who never played this kind of games and might be interested, but we don't have data for that, so since we are reasonable people, let's just stick with the "potential" number of 500k (The key word here is potential, not actual, I hope you understand the difference).
Common sense doesn't include an inflation rate. Especially not an inflation rate of 800%. (DMK's number to kitarad's number). And this is being used for actual numbers, not potential numbers. Some people are starting to perform calculations with these numbers in an attempt to show revenue. And that is anticipating 400k or 500k or 1m or 1.2m customers.
If you really want to take an extreme position, the "potential" player base is everyone on the planet, somewhere short of 8 billion people. But that's not in the ballpark of rational for any game. Something like that can (and should) be taken only as a humorous exaggeration. Your actual data for EQ1 is for EQ1 at a specific point in time, not current data, and does not account for the possibility that a good number of those players are no longer in the target market, or playing games, or even alive. That the number of people that were in that historical data point and have left have not been accounted for, and there is no data that indicates there are replacements just waiting to fill out those ranks.
I don't have a problem with projected numbers. I have a problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers.
^^^ This. I think it very early to start projecting numbers. I predict that between 1 and 500 million people will play this game <- There... this statement has just as much validity as DMK or Kitarad
Actually in my opinion launching the game with a huge crowd would be a real problem for them. Pulling numbers from thin air (like everyone else is doing on this forum) - say they expect 200,000 people to buy and play the game release week and instead they get 500,000. Servers go down, people get frustrated, and your first impression is not favorable. The forums would then fill with 'it's Vanguard all over again' and permanent damage could be done.
If they can figure out a way to smoothly launch and it is a good game then there is decent word of mouth and a positive first impression. Of course this is no easy feat. In my experience there have only been a couple of (relatively) smooth releases - most are at best bad, at worst catastrophic.
I'm thinking Vanguard but with a much smaller team and a shoestring budget... what could possibly go wrong at launch?
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I really want Pantheon to succeed, but IMO it will only be a niche game to the people wanting to experience updated old school mechanics and gameplay. Thankfully the devs agree and have stated that the games business model is tailored to meet these expectations and the game will be able to survive and grow with a niche audience.
Personally I feel over hyping the game could cause damage to the game due to the hype increasing the expectations of future players. If people allow the hype to take over they're going to expect greatness but will be left with disappointment when the game fails to meet their perceived expectations, which could lead to disillusionment and negativity surrounding the game.
OP you need to remember VR are a small indie studio with a small limited budget. We are not going to get AAA visuals or animations or massive game worlds or content associated with games with AAA budgets. I'm not stating this to dampen your enthusiasm OP but more for a reality check. Personally I believe Pantheon will be a grower; it will start small with features, content and subs and all these areas will grow over time.
Personally I feel over hyping the game could cause damage to the game due to the hype increasing the expectations of future players. If people allow the hype to take over they're going to expect greatness but will be left with disappointment when the game fails to meet their perceived expectations, which could lead to disillusionment and negativity surrounding the game.
OP you need to remember VR are a small indie studio with a small limited budget. We are not going to get AAA visuals or animations or massive game worlds or content associated with games with AAA budgets. I'm not stating this to dampen your enthusiasm OP but more for a reality check. Personally I believe Pantheon will be a grower; it will start small with features, content and subs and all these areas will grow over time.
Totally agree. Hardcore fans can cause a LOT more damage to a game than any troll. Keep expectations low and surpass them! That's a win...
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...some people actually think that most old school EQ players will go to Pantheon just because it's like old school EQ and basing their Pantheon projections off of that?
What about the number of old school EQ players who were only playing EQ because there were no other options at the time? By now, considering how saturated the MMO market and even possibly competetitor genres adjacent to it are, the vast majority of old school EQ players probably found a different type of game they'd like to play now, or an alternate game that's just close enough to theme park EQ that they'd have no reason to leave for Pantheon, or grew old and have families, or won't play Pantheon because never even heard of Pantheon and possibly never will (unless you're willing to personally go and message those old school EQ players about Pantheon's existence).
Really, honestly, if a game with no brand name recognition could be "huge" just from having old-school EQ difficulty, you'd think more MMO companies would have gone back to that by now. I know everyone likes to think they know how to make the next big MMO and all, but the truth is if every business company in the world isn't really bothering with such a thing that's already been done and tried before and then moved on from, there's usually a reason for that.
...some people actually think that most old school EQ players will go to Pantheon just because it's like old school EQ and basing their Pantheon projections off of that?
What about the number of old school EQ players who were only playing EQ because there were no other options at the time? By now, considering how saturated the MMO market and even possibly competetitor genres adjacent to it are, the vast majority of old school EQ players probably found a different type of game they'd like to play now, or an alternate game that's just close enough to theme park EQ that they'd have no reason to leave for Pantheon, or grew old and have families, or won't play Pantheon because never even heard of Pantheon and possibly never will (unless you're willing to personally go and message those old school EQ players about Pantheon's existence).
Really, honestly, if a game with no brand name recognition could be "huge" just from having old-school EQ difficulty, you'd think more MMO companies would have gone back to that by now. I know everyone likes to think they know how to make the next big MMO and all, but the truth is if every business company in the world isn't really bothering with such a thing that's already been done and tried before and then moved on from, there's usually a reason for that.
I agree 100%. I also think the dev team knows exactly what they are doing and probably aren't expecting to garner hundreds of thousands of players. Pantheon is a game that is deliberately attempting to be the nicheist of the niche games. I would think anyone expecting more than a 100k in sales in kidding themselves. I'd be surprised if they maintained 25k.
Man, can I beat a dead horse with a stick or what ?
This time I'm using math without numbers........
Just look what's going on in the General Discussion Forums. Then look at any individual game forums, and then look at the Pantheon Forum, and last watch how people react when mentioning Pantheon. Let me add a little Phycology into the mix with the haters defending their stance on why the game will fail so badly. They actually look for the fight, their blood boils and they see red when anyone talks about Pantheon, they are the few, wayyyyyyy more people are looking forward to it than not. BUT, I'll say it again BUT, and I don't want to come across as rude, BUT they will be playing too !..........Wait, What ?........Sorry, this is just how people are, and you know it !.....I'll stop here with the Phycology.....You understand exactly what I'm talking about.
Just look at a recent posting on in General Discussion ( the pub ), " everyone gets a trophy, mmo's are in a drought ". It didn't take long before the fight turned to Pantheon and Everquest. They dominate over the argument. Pantheon usually winds up in all Pub topics !
MMo's are in a drought. It's been bad and getting worst !........By release this drought will be real bad. The people that argue against a problem have something in common with all their post " they are the rosy ones " they always say " everything is fine ", they say this over and over again. They think their optimism of how things are is just fine !.....They play the middle ground thinking their liked by all and they are the non-arguing types, when in fact they argue a lot. They are truly the minority but loud about it.
We are in a drought !......And Pantheon is here to save it !
I'll leave you with this because it's important:
No matter how bad you argue against Pantheon, you will have no choice but to be part of the mainstream....That's human nature.
They better be ready for a large population and the servers WILL crash
Personally I feel over hyping the game could cause damage to the game due to the hype increasing the expectations of future players. If people allow the hype to take over they're going to expect greatness but will be left with disappointment when the game fails to meet their perceived expectations, which could lead to disillusionment and negativity surrounding the game.
OP you need to remember VR are a small indie studio with a small limited budget. We are not going to get AAA visuals or animations or massive game worlds or content associated with games with AAA budgets. I'm not stating this to dampen your enthusiasm OP but more for a reality check. Personally I believe Pantheon will be a grower; it will start small with features, content and subs and all these areas will grow over time.
Totally agree. Hardcore fans can cause a LOT more damage to a game than any troll. Keep expectations low and surpass them! That's a win...
I agree with both of you,
For me all I need is an ok size game to start, that's immersive. It's ok if its missing features, I can grow with it.
The number of people anticipating Pantheon is about the same as those who were anticipating EQ:Next, and we all saw how that turned out. I guess history may not be able to teach us as much as we thought.
While there may be an overlap between the two groups lots of people who are looking forward to Pantheon loathed the direction EQ Not! was taking.
What ensures that it wont be huge is that its a mmorpg.
MMORPGs are not huge anymore.
On top of that old school mmorpg - niche within a niche.
Yeah - it wont be huge unless you consider 50k players after 6 months "huge".
You and your numbers pulled out of thin air again. While I believe that the OP is way over optimistic and setting expectations too high, I really can't take this kind on nonsense.
If Pantheon quality is going to be shit (AKA Vanguard launch), not even 50k people will play it. However, are you telling me that a polished Pantheon, the only real MMORPG with an Old School feel, the MMORPG that EQNext fans turned to, will be less successful than Crowfall, Camelot Unchained or any other MMORPG in development? You can't be serious.
The "potential" Pantheon player base is over 500K, and that's conservative, bigger than any other MMO in production. All you have to do it's add EQ and EQ2 current players, EQ and EQ2 ex players (like me), Vanilla WoW fans (few millions), other Old School games orphans......and most importantly, a new generations of players that never played this kind of game and might actually like it. You guys seems to outright dismiss this possibility, because you all have families and no time to play this kind of games. Guess what, students and young people might have the time to play games like Pantheon.
So after considering all of that, how can you honestly tell that the best Pantheon can aspire to it's 50k? I don't think even you believe your own words.
50k 6 months post launch is a good number for a niche game.
DMK,
Your just another average kid on the block, you always think you have an inside edge. And your data analyzer that you somehow got is broken. Lets add in that because you got older and more responsibility everyone else is screwed in finding time...Can't figure out the reasoning behind that ?
Ok so what does "HUGE" mean to you?
Also I don't have a "data analyzer" - as I use actual people who work for MMO industry and track online playerbase trends. '
Being that Pantheon is so early 50k is a guess - depending on the state of the game at launch, I'll be able to give you a heck of a lot more accurate numbers.
If it's a buggy unstable mess that's missing a ton of features - they won't get anywhere near 50k after 6 months.
Again 6 months post launch - what do you think Pantheon can hit even if it is a superb classic MMORPG - 100k?
I guess that's possible but I don't see it happening.
Anything over 100k is a pipe dream IMO
I would be a little more generous than that. Anything over 100k is very unlikely, anything over 250k would be jaw droppingly amazing.
There are a lot of people who played EQ seriously. While some have found new MMOs enjoyable, a large portion of them have not. I remember when WoW first came out and among all of the people I knew in several communities, I didn't know a single one who played EQ in it's prime that felt WoW was better.
EQ offered something very unique that no longer exists. If Pantheon can recreate that, it will be appealing to a whole lot more than just "oldschool" fans. Some of you won't get that, but it's completely obvious to the rest of us.
Lol at these estimates when Vanguard sold a quarter of a million boxes in a broken state 10 years ago, and a shallow screenshot engine with a focus on PvP (PvE demo is much larger) like Black Desert did double that.
Bingo! The game is being made by a small team on a tiny budget. It's quite possible that Pantheon won't even come close to quality of EQ1, nor Vanguard. It's quite possible that Pantheon never gets even completed. I hope it does - so that people realize that 50k after 6 months was a great prediction, heh
50K players would still be acceptable, more then enough to keep the game running and updated. But there are more then a few people who really want something like it, I predict 200K as long as it releases in an acceptable shape. And yeah, anything from 25K-1M is possible.
If it would be Vanguard bad I fear you are too optimistic, then I say 25K.
And of course, no game in development is safe, even games like Titan and Copernicus got canceled and they had far greater budgets and some really experienced people working on them but worrying about things like that is rather pointless. From what I seen of the game it is rather likely we will be able to play it eventually.
Comments
I know you started with WoW (although I don't know what year), but it's almost like you have not followed the MMORPG world since then.
Originally posted by Scagweed22
is it the graphics? the repetativenesses? i mean what is the point? you could be so much more productive in real life
Real life brings repetition and pointlessness too. The only thing real life offers is Great graphics. Its kinda expensive too and way to dependent on the cash shop. Totally pay to win as well. No thank you. Ill stick to my games.
If you really want to take an extreme position, the "potential" player base is everyone on the planet, somewhere short of 8 billion people. But that's not in the ballpark of rational for any game. Something like that can (and should) be taken only as a humorous exaggeration. Your actual data for EQ1 is for EQ1 at a specific point in time, not current data, and does not account for the possibility that a good number of those players are no longer in the target market, or playing games, or even alive. That the number of people that were in that historical data point and have left have not been accounted for, and there is no data that indicates there are replacements just waiting to fill out those ranks.
I don't have a problem with projected numbers. I have a problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
^^^ This. I think it very early to start projecting numbers. I predict that between 1 and 500 million people will play this game <- There... this statement has just as much validity as DMK or Kitarad
Actually in my opinion launching the game with a huge crowd would be a real problem for them. Pulling numbers from thin air (like everyone else is doing on this forum) - say they expect 200,000 people to buy and play the game release week and instead they get 500,000. Servers go down, people get frustrated, and your first impression is not favorable. The forums would then fill with 'it's Vanguard all over again' and permanent damage could be done.
If they can figure out a way to smoothly launch and it is a good game then there is decent word of mouth and a positive first impression. Of course this is no easy feat. In my experience there have only been a couple of (relatively) smooth releases - most are at best bad, at worst catastrophic.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
The style of the game just isn't my cup of tea.
Personally I feel over hyping the game could cause damage to the game due to the hype increasing the expectations of future players. If people allow the hype to take over they're going to expect greatness but will be left with disappointment when the game fails to meet their perceived expectations, which could lead to disillusionment and negativity surrounding the game.
OP you need to remember VR are a small indie studio with a small limited budget. We are not going to get AAA visuals or animations or massive game worlds or content associated with games with AAA budgets. I'm not stating this to dampen your enthusiasm OP but more for a reality check. Personally I believe Pantheon will be a grower; it will start small with features, content and subs and all these areas will grow over time.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
What about the number of old school EQ players who were only playing EQ because there were no other options at the time? By now, considering how saturated the MMO market and even possibly competetitor genres adjacent to it are, the vast majority of old school EQ players probably found a different type of game they'd like to play now, or an alternate game that's just close enough to theme park EQ that they'd have no reason to leave for Pantheon, or grew old and have families, or won't play Pantheon because never even heard of Pantheon and possibly never will (unless you're willing to personally go and message those old school EQ players about Pantheon's existence).
Really, honestly, if a game with no brand name recognition could be "huge" just from having old-school EQ difficulty, you'd think more MMO companies would have gone back to that by now. I know everyone likes to think they know how to make the next big MMO and all, but the truth is if every business company in the world isn't really bothering with such a thing that's already been done and tried before and then moved on from, there's usually a reason for that.
++ Phycology is the study of algae.
I agree with both of you,
For me all I need is an ok size game to start, that's immersive. It's ok if its missing features, I can grow with it.
But it has to be coded well !
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EQ offered something very unique that no longer exists. If Pantheon can recreate that, it will be appealing to a whole lot more than just "oldschool" fans. Some of you won't get that, but it's completely obvious to the rest of us.
Lol at these estimates when Vanguard sold a quarter of a million boxes in a broken state 10 years ago, and a shallow screenshot engine with a focus on PvP (PvE demo is much larger) like Black Desert did double that.
If it would be Vanguard bad I fear you are too optimistic, then I say 25K.
And of course, no game in development is safe, even games like Titan and Copernicus got canceled and they had far greater budgets and some really experienced people working on them but worrying about things like that is rather pointless. From what I seen of the game it is rather likely we will be able to play it eventually.