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Was I right? Was I wrong? A prediction 6 years later.
Divion
Member UncommonPosts: 411
Approx 6 years ago - July 2011 I made a post (http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/322792/if-this-game-fails-so-does-the-mmorpg-genre-this-is-our-last-hope/p1)
Regarding the state of the industry should SWTOR fail to duplicate WoW's success, and what message it would send.
The year is 2017, and i can't help but look around, and feel like i was right.
Yes, there will be -some- (a loud minority) of MMORPG players who will feel i was wrong, and rebuke me at every turn, and take. I accept that - However, i'm curious how many are seeing what i see?
Over the last 5 years the -same- titles have sat on MMORPG.com's popularity/hype tracker - The products delivered have been in line with the expectation of poor quality cash cows. Comically MMORPG's staff have morphed from 6 years ago being objective observers to being poorly veiled sponsermen triumphing tired titles in new spotlights that reek of ancient gimmicks, and machinations.
I would say BDO is an exception to this - However, BDO pre-dates my prediction, and SWTOR's release (Development in 2010) - and honestly, it's not a traditional MMO trying to replicate WoW's success, it's an MMO trying to corner an old niche market of Sandbox HC players, in other words it wanted EVE's market, not WoWs.
In those 6 years we saw Project Titan canceled, likely as i speculate that even Blizzard knew they could not repeat their success - thus best to salvage the assets and launch what they could (Overwatch) - and redirect their development resources into their golden child to juice it for as much as they can, because the corpse is dry (WoD/Legion) - A smart business decision i believe.
With so many large Studios seeing exactly what i predicted they would (high risk, high reward MMOs frequently delivering more risk than reward) - So came the rise of Crowd Funding, and E/A MMORPGS - This is great - No more Executes in Suites calling the Shots, now it's Nerds making games for nerds! --- Wait... oh there is a reason you don't let Nerds run a business... they don't know how (Star Citizen, No Man's Sky, Elite Dangerous, LiF, etc) - Well that has turned into a bust with massive amounts of people refusing to go on E/A - C/F titles any more due to the massive risk.
What about next gen titles? The best we have to look forward to is Albion, Shards? Or perhaps the Ancient DnL? Oh they are rebuilding the entire thing, it looks promising - as does Ashes of Creation - What of Bless, or Gloria Victis - Games that i've seen in development since i posted that post 6 years ago.
What a tread mill of promises we run, looking past that i can't help but feel like i was spot on, this industry is so stagnant. A couple of promising titles that may never actually release is the best we have - other than that it's WoW, ESO, GW2 til the day we die. What a time to be alive...
Regarding the state of the industry should SWTOR fail to duplicate WoW's success, and what message it would send.
The year is 2017, and i can't help but look around, and feel like i was right.
Yes, there will be -some- (a loud minority) of MMORPG players who will feel i was wrong, and rebuke me at every turn, and take. I accept that - However, i'm curious how many are seeing what i see?
Over the last 5 years the -same- titles have sat on MMORPG.com's popularity/hype tracker - The products delivered have been in line with the expectation of poor quality cash cows. Comically MMORPG's staff have morphed from 6 years ago being objective observers to being poorly veiled sponsermen triumphing tired titles in new spotlights that reek of ancient gimmicks, and machinations.
I would say BDO is an exception to this - However, BDO pre-dates my prediction, and SWTOR's release (Development in 2010) - and honestly, it's not a traditional MMO trying to replicate WoW's success, it's an MMO trying to corner an old niche market of Sandbox HC players, in other words it wanted EVE's market, not WoWs.
In those 6 years we saw Project Titan canceled, likely as i speculate that even Blizzard knew they could not repeat their success - thus best to salvage the assets and launch what they could (Overwatch) - and redirect their development resources into their golden child to juice it for as much as they can, because the corpse is dry (WoD/Legion) - A smart business decision i believe.
With so many large Studios seeing exactly what i predicted they would (high risk, high reward MMOs frequently delivering more risk than reward) - So came the rise of Crowd Funding, and E/A MMORPGS - This is great - No more Executes in Suites calling the Shots, now it's Nerds making games for nerds! --- Wait... oh there is a reason you don't let Nerds run a business... they don't know how (Star Citizen, No Man's Sky, Elite Dangerous, LiF, etc) - Well that has turned into a bust with massive amounts of people refusing to go on E/A - C/F titles any more due to the massive risk.
What about next gen titles? The best we have to look forward to is Albion, Shards? Or perhaps the Ancient DnL? Oh they are rebuilding the entire thing, it looks promising - as does Ashes of Creation - What of Bless, or Gloria Victis - Games that i've seen in development since i posted that post 6 years ago.
What a tread mill of promises we run, looking past that i can't help but feel like i was spot on, this industry is so stagnant. A couple of promising titles that may never actually release is the best we have - other than that it's WoW, ESO, GW2 til the day we die. What a time to be alive...
Comments
But then again its the right predictions that are rememeber while the predictions that turns out wrong is forgotten. That is why its not often we listen to the many dr dooms around the world.
Trust me, i didn't want to be right. I have longed to be wrong. The MMORPG industry has my heart, it's a special genre to me, and it's quite maddening, and depressing to see nothing to be excited about. To know my options are to play games that range in 5 to 10 years in age. Sigh..
It's possible, i think if a promising enough technology emerges that plays to the tune of MMORPG in the way of immersion (VR? AR?) - Then that will breath new life into the industry. I'm all about some full dive Sword Art Online, lol. Give that NerveGear Bae!
Though I think MMOs just hit a wall with what they could do with current technology and formulas; with the console market continuing to show several successes in the MMO department -- and FFXI being remade for iOS -- I think we are about to break through that wall. Whether the term "MMO" survives is definitely up for debate in that regard. Once technology catches up further, we may have fully fledged virtual reality words similar to Star Trek or some popular animes that people are into.
Those who have established themselves are pretty set for a while. New titles will invoke interest due the top dogs being around so long. Personally still interested in waiting for Lost Ark, Peria Chronicles and some nearly impossible believe releases like Ashes of Creation and Star Citizen. As consoles have caught up with the online features, we've seen more and more games with online features and popularity to the point some companies felt you had to have online play to compete in the market, depending on the genre.
This game tries so hard to be WoW it enrages me. I literally am furious with the devs for the amount of money they wasted failing to be innovative in any meaningful way. I mean WoW with a story was at least kind of a fun model in limited doses until they were like "WoW dropped skill trees? Guess we better do that to because we need to be like our big bro WoW in every way!"
Freaking mindless copy cats. If that's the depth of your innovation do us a favor and don't make a game.
This game had so much potential. They have such an amazing setting and freedom to do whatever they want with it. Pazaak, swoopbike races, a universe where plentiful force users actually makes sense. This could have been one of the best games ever if more competent people had been calling the shots and more innovative minds were given the freedom to do something amazing.
Highly agree - the lack of leaders wanting to take point on innovation is what is stagnating the industry. For 5-9 years you had a flood of WoW Clones, now WoW is too old to clone, thus development has slowed to a crawl - With many companies now attempting OverWatch Clones... this recipe is making me want to be a gamer less, and less with each new year.
And this is why I play EVE. Is it perfect? Far from it. Boring most of the time, but the pockets of action are enough.
I honestly miss the days of Ultima Online (up to and including AoS) and WoW (vanilla/TBC). Everything else has been a let down.
I kick myself for missing DAoC - too wrapped up in being a red PK in UO
Looking to the future... I see a plagued abyss of mismanaged potential.
Most of the MMOs kickstarted with the initial wave of Crowdfunded games haven't been released yet and we're actually going to start seeing the first of them hitting this year so it will be cool to see if we get anything good from them.
I'd play any single one of them over WoW or any WoW clone though. I'd rather play freaking Pathfinder Online than another WoW clone.
Your observations, on the other hand, are abysmal. You were, and still are, so predisposed to seeing a reality that fits your preconceptions, that you ignore everything that does not fit it. You have no capability to notice when you are wrong.
EDIT: On second though, I guess I'll have to write more or I'd risk a mod judging this post as personal attack:
1. OP's original "Recipe for Success" had already failed with Warhammer Online before he posted it. According to his own logic, he should have already known that SWTOR all other similar MMOs in future would fail
2. Black Deset Online was first demonstrated to public in 2012. OP thinks that "BDO pre-dates my prediction, and SWTOR's release"
3. Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn, Guild Wars 2, and Elder Scrolls Online have all achieved some success after the OP's prediction that people no longer want to play MMOs if SWTOR fails to succeed. Also after its initial failure, F2P version of SWTOR looks like it's been doing well enough too.
OP ignores that of his own list "it's WoW, ESO, GW2 til the day we die" 2 out of 3 games have been released and been successful after his prediction was made.
4. OP claims that "Over the last 5 years the -same- titles have sat on MMORPG.com's popularity/hype tracker", when:
-Top 5 spots in the Hype list belong to games that we had heard nothing about 5 years ago
-On Released list: Guild Wars 2, Secret World, Elder Scrolls Online, AD2460 and Black Desert Online were not released 5 years ago
Time and again for several years the industry has dictated that F2P games with cash shops make more money. That and the industry is completely different than it was 5 years ago.
Crowdfunding is a big deal which makes it easier ..albeit not always successful, for games to be put into development, but that will slowly find its way out as more projects turn out like Pathfinder and what will eventually turn into Star Citizen. It's only a matter of time before that well runs dry from too many failed projects.
Studios are focused more on microtransactional games that are cheaper to make with greater success. Hence the rise of the Subscription packs for multiplayer games. Large studios can make more with less.
Console MMOs are a HUGE moneymaker, so instead of having to create a whole new game, porting it to a console is a quick and easy way on capitalizing on a new market with much less work.
There's also the point that most of the MMO tropes that have seen any success are oversaturated, and too many small development teams are trying to corner that market to slow and uncertain success.
Big subscription MMOs have declined because the revenue just isn't there. Companies are being made by simplistic or copycat games with cash shops.
Mobile is taking a large portion of players too, as it increasingly becomes a valid gaming platform in several aspects. Mobile has also reached saturation, but the difference between mobile and PC is accesibility. Way more people have a gaming accessible phone than a gaming PC (roughly 80% of the US just as an example). That wasn't the same back when SWTOR launched.
Still reading through the rest of the post and getting other people sounding happy that "World of Darkness" exists (it doesn't now), and looking forward to a better GW1 like I was.
Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.
"At one point technology meant making tech that could get to the moon, now it means making tech that could get you a taxi."
Its fun to look back at past posts and see what people's mentality were back then, and how reality actually played out.
I self identify as a monkey.
OP was 4 years too late. It was with the release of LOTRO 10 years ago I noticed my first WOW clone.
This was quickly followed by a number of titles that all tried to copy WOWs design in varying degrees from core mechanics to almost near (imperfect) copies such as Runes of Magic.
Even some of the "popular" titles of today are more similar to WOWs design than not. (class/level based, questing gear grinders)
Its true BDO and even AA showed some innovation, but they still are fairly close to the standard theme park model despite offering more flexibility in progression activities.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
You should have noticed it long before that with the SWG NGE. Hell, DAoC started trying to WOWify itself more and more with each expansion after 2003.
But yeah, WOW also had everything to do with Middle Earth Online morphing into LOTRO.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
I'm also not sure how successful SWTOR has been. I've seen claims that they have a ton of players. But when I try to find information on the game, the level of fan site activity is simply not consistent with a popular game. It's possible that the sort of players who would fill out a wiki (admittedly a tiny fraction of MMORPG players) generally hate SWTOR but it's popular with other groups, but that would be strange.
For a moment there, I thought you were describing FFXIV. Yoshida, FFXIV's so-called Director/Producer, is following that same pattern, and has openly admitted to it on a number of occasions now.
Recently, switching from straight sub model to the extended/unlimited trial, where you're limited to level 35. This comes after WoW having done the same thing.
In an early interview, back before 2.0 released, I believe, Yoshida stated that when WoW goes F2P, they will likely look at doing so with FFXIV as well. At the time I thought he was joking. But, seeing how he's used WoW as a blueprint for FFXIV time and again, I'm pretty sure he was 100% serious.
I guess neither SWTOR's team, nor FFXIV's got the memo that copying WoW stopped being a viable strategy a long time ago, and really never was viable to begin with. The only thing keeping those two games notable is their IP. If they were any other MMO from any other developer, they'd both have been forgotten a long time ago, just like dozens of other "me-too" titles on this site's list.
Aloha Mr Hand !
To be fair, LoTRO borrowed a lot from Asheron's Call 2, which pre-dated WoW. And WoW implemented a number of things that AC2 did first.
But yes, MMOs after WoW definitely copied it more than WoW copied AC2.
My two cents as someone who is posting on this site since 2004. ( What a laugh )
How ever - Let me just note one thing - Mark Jacobs saying that if WAR fails , it will mean the end of AA MMO genre.
And in my oppinion it was exactly that. In the peak of MMO genre - failure after failure
Started with Vanguard , AOC , WAR ... and SWTOR nailed the coffin.
I even omitted few odd ones as Tabula Rasa.
All of them hundreds of millions budgets , hundreds of people working on them for countless years.
And all of them bankrupted their studios ( or put huge dents in them only studios as like EA could survive )
I think you can look at different games and development decisions that got us to where we currently are. One great example from DAoC would be TOA... If you look at player concerns about how it would affect RVR just for an example. Devs of course assured players that the impact wouldn't be that great... but you can look at what actually happened instead. Which is a common theme in the way MMO's that support PvE and PvP go.... You can even look to games like WoW and their current in "testing" changes... Something being nerfed due to PvP that will have a radical change on how PvE players that never PvP will have their character impacted. It works the other way around as well obviously...
I think the impact of the WoW launch in 2004 on DAoC is hard to really judge... Simply because the week between EQ2 and WoW (they launched like two weeks apart). Mythic did the first ever massive suspension for radar use.... I specificly remember their community spokesperson (whom I never liked) bragging that anyone claiming they were going to play a new game... had been a cheat user. They had zero comprehension that one person in a guild can get suspended and say "hey I'm going to try out this game anyone else?" and you can lose an entire guild that wasn't cheating... they just followed a popular member that might have been. This population drop was also part of what led to opening the classic servers.... which simply went back to a lesson about how hated TOA was but then they merged us back into the TOA cluster later because the TOA cluster didn't have enough population...
You can look at pretty much every MMO on the market (or closed) and how the dev team did stuff despite player feedback and then lost customers. (SOE was a poster child for not only doing this but literally fighting with the majority of their "customers" in public as they drove them and their subscriptions away).
You can also point to WoW clones and how eventually people got sick of player the same game over and over again... some versions not as good as others but still pretty much the same game.
You can look at players like Me that would have played SWG forever... because the game never ended for us (pre CU/NGE of course).... and for people like me how the "end game" of almost all modern games really does mean "end game" for us... aka /cancel
I don't think in regards to the thread in general.. that it should be any kind of suprise that the industry is where it currently is. Or that it was fairly easy to see coming a long time ago...