As other MMOs have shown - Pantheon is likely to fail or be very niche

TheScavenger

Pantheon is likely to fail, or at the very least be a very niche MMO. But maybe a very niche MMO is good for some. 

For example, these are the reasons it is very likely to fail:

Launch release (1 month in, 2 months tops but will already have lost a lot of players) not perfect? As vanguard saga of heroes showed, if release isn't perfect and even if the game gets fixed, and most will never go back to it again. This makes finding groups VERY hard except at only the latest levels, and anyone joining the game later in life won't be able to do content since its all group based.

Next, again Vanguard being a great example (it WAS the MMO made for people asking for an oldschool experience)...

Vanguard was by far the best MMO (thus far that has been released), but despite everyone on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool MMO, no one on MMORPG.com was interested in playing it. Sure launch was bad, but that is like getting a piece of cake at a restaurant and having a fly inside it. Instead of asking for a new slice of cake, you'd storm out the restaurant and never go back even if its a restaurant you've wanted made in your neighborhood for years or decades. Most people who REALLY wanted that cake and wanted that restaurant open, and enjoy that flavor of cake would instead ask for a new one slice, not leave and enjoy a brand new slice of cake. 

So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience. Why ask for years for something, that something comes out, but not actually play it? If my dream game came out, warts, problems and all, I'd stick it out and if it did improve and I took a break, I'd go back. Obviously this means no ones dream game (very few anyway) is an oldschool experience. Because if it was, they'd have enjoyed Vanguard, the MMO made for an oldschool experience.

So, did Vanguard show that people don't REALLY want an oldschool MMO? Cause if I asked for years for a game to come out, and it was my dream game, I'd definitely play it especially if any bugs came out.

And if pantheon has any problems at launch at all, it will very likely follow in Vanguards footsteps because no one tries their "dream" game twice (which sounds like an oxymoron, if its your dream game, wouldn't you play it?)...

Now you may think this is a negative thread. But in fact it isn't. Vanguard was by far my favorite MMO, and it was incredibly sad to see it die. However Pantheon can be successful if it thinks itself a very niche experience, since most obviously don't want an oldschool experience (which is sad). Pantheon is my most looked forward to MMO coming out, and if its anything like vanguard, it'll be amazing.

Big.Daddy.Samedi

I think the issue that lies here is that the game was sold to SOE. which for some was a death knell for Vanguard. The Launch problems and a complete lack of trust in them is likely why people would not give it a try later. 

I am one who played it as part of my All Access pass and I agree that Sony fixed many of the problems, but we knew as soon as sony took over that there would be no real crew placed on the game. So perhaps it is more a matter of concern over longevity and the company managing the games. Who wants to invest time in a game that will never again be updated

Gyva02

TheScavenger said:

 

So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience. 

lol... 

TheScavenger

Big.Daddy.Samedi said:

I think the issue that lies here is that the game was sold to SOE. which for some was a death knell for Vanguard. The Launch problems and a complete lack of trust in them is likely why people would not give it a try later. 

I am one who played it as part of my All Access pass and I agree that Sony fixed many of the problems, but we knew as soon as sony took over that there would be no real crew placed on the game. So perhaps it is more a matter of concern over longevity and the company managing the games. Who wants to invest time in a game that will never again be updated

That is true. SOE was very hated when they existed...for example

...I'd never play a daybreak game, for that very reason. Why play EQ2? Or planetside 2? Daybreak is an investment company (or owned by one, same thing) and not likely to last years. An investment company only motive is a quick profit.

 I very much see all of SOE's former games being shut down OR sold (and if sold, probably to crap companies like NCsoft or some other junk, since an investment company doesn't care what happens to the game)

Albatroes

What was the point of the OP's entire post exactly? Be niche or die? All that just to say four words...As for Vanguard, the main complaints I saw about that game was just mostly talking about how buggy it was. I dont know about it first hand since I didn't really try it until right before it died so I didn't get far. But the devs already stated sometime last year that they are aiming for a "niche" market with some modern implementations from mmorpgs which honestly can be used. Old mmorpgs weren't perfect by no means even though I feel FFXI was probably the best mmorpg I've played until around abyssea (I wont say abyssea was horrible but it could've been done a lot better. The current game has a lot of good ideas that could've benefited during the game's height but all the content being produced now is just rearranged assets and aimed at 6 people or less, so its more of a co-op game with mercs vs a true mmorpg now).

Wizardry

All mmorpg's seem to be niche now because of the reasons people are picking games.

I see a ton load of people watching streamers play,they are so dedicated they give streamers money and sit there 24/7,so you have to ask,why are they not playing?Obvious reason are the games are not that good,not even the highest rated via player base.

Other reasons are just popularity,more popular means more revenue,more followers ,more subscribers etc etc.
So because pantheon is not released by Blizzard it will not be nearly marketed enough,nor will it carry the popularity flag.

Even if Pantheon was sent down by the gods,it would still not be the most popular mmorpg.Catch my point,people are playing games for all the wrong reasons and don't believe anyone claiming for FUN as that number is very small.
I would not be surprised Destiny 2 spent more on marketing than the game is worth,this is how giants keep getting big responses to very average games and Pantheon cannot compete in the money spending game.

Look at the massive threads we see on this site,the majority are Blizzard,obviously Blizz/Activision spending a lot of money to get their games promoted here.How many threads has this site created for Pantheon?VERY few,to the point we could say this is a Destiny 2 fansite and Pantheon is just some forgotten game.

Azaron_Nightblade

Well... niche is what they are aiming for... so I suspect they'll do okay, as loong as their target audience turns out to be large enough, and the game isn't the buggy mess VG was at launch. Except for a few very delusional people, no one is expecting this game to be a huge hit.

Incomparable

Imo, other than people not knowing what they really want as long term players, is the lack of development to focus on the end game.

Also I beleive the future of MMO's is having 'AI' where instead of having limited in game events, the 'AI' would be able to create a whole series of events depending on the mmo world and move NPCs around as if they are real players and have in game politics.

If any 'niche' game has this good kind of 'AI' and has a lot of end game features, with 'good' combat, and 'good' art style, then even if it has niche elements it will do well.

In fact, at this point, any game that is large enough has to have some kind of niche. It just seems the niche element is also another way of saying that the MMO lacks end game development and has a few elements that make it different.

So in reality the word niche is more of an illusion that the game is a complete experience when used by some games due to not developing end game as much as they should have.

Vrika

Expect SOE didn't ever really try fix Vanguard. Everyone could see that a large dev team needed to make good flow of new content and fix all the old problems just wasn't there. It was a half-assed attempt by SOE, who could have made a lot better.

If the devs don't believe in their own game then most of the fans aren't going to believe for long either.

Pantheon is a different game in a different situation. It's likely to fail too, but imho for different reason than why Vanguard failed.

Big.Daddy.Samedi

I for one honestly have faith in Brads vision and want to see his idea for Pantheon. I want a virtual world oriented MMO again.... and I believe if he learned the lessons he needed to learn from Vanguard, he is the one to bring it.

I do not fanboy often, but I am honestly a fan of Brads work. So I say before writing off what pantheon can become, we wait and let the team show us what they are going to make it become.

Karnage69

A game "failing" is subjective with objective influences. I played the hell out of Vanguard, as did many other people. To this day, my favorite healer of all time from any MMO was the Disciple from Vanguard, no other healer even comes close to being as fun as that healer was. If Vanguard ever launched again, I would sub again in a heartbeat, as would many of my friends who used to play it. Just because a game doesn't have 'WoW" subscriptions doesn't mean a game will fail. Long as it stays open, many people will play it and enjoy their time.

BruceYee

Any of these solo projects from the old timers have a chance of sucking like Shroud of the Avatar but I have faith that at least one of them will deliver. These projects are the last chance these guys have to stay in the "game" so I'm sure they are putting 200% effort into everything they do.

Kyleran

Xodic said:

A lot of scattered thoughts that I didn't understand. It could be that I am r not smrt, but if you could clarify these thoughts into concise statements, it would help.

Basically, dumb it down to a crayon explanation.

For many people after the bad launch and Brad's dismissal they did not believe SOE would invest signicant resources in a product which was basically a direct competitor to their flagship EQ franchise.

There was also still a lot of hate for SOE over their mishandling of SWG and the NGE.

Finally it was a very competetive time, with Vanguard failure there were several major titles in the pipeline which drew everyone's attention away.

Pretty much a known fact, for many players you only get one chance to impress, bumble launch and very likely they will never go back.

Well, was true at least in my case, I've never returned to any game that I disliked at launch, including VG, ESO, LOTRO, SWTOR, AION and a few more.

Azaron_Nightblade

Big.Daddy.Samedi said:

I for one honestly have faith in Brads vision and want to see his idea for Pantheon. I want a virtual world oriented MMO again.... and I believe if he learned the lessons he needed to learn from Vanguard, he is the one to bring it.

I do not fanboy often, but I am honestly a fan of Brads work. So I say before writing off what pantheon can become, we wait and let the team show us what they are going to make it become.

I'm not sure why you are putting all the blame for the VG mess on SOE. Let's not forget that the original dev team (Brad's) jumped ship and sold them a horribly broken game with a code that was probably a huge headache to figure out for a team that didn't design it. The major difference seems to be that this time the option to bail on the project isn't as readily available... then again, Daybreak might wind up buying it if he does decide that he wants out again.

Zindaihas

Your entire premise is based on Vanguard's track record.  Pantheon is not Vanguard.  Ergo, your post is mere speculation.  You could be right.  You also could be dead wrong.  Why don't we just wait and see what happens.  It's sort of like the games that people boldly declared "WoW killers", only in reverse.  Now people are declaring games failures before they are even released.  If the game is good, that's no guarantee it will be a hit, but it's much more likely.

Don't discount the word of mouth factor.  If the game is addictive, word will get out, and other gamers will want to see for themselves if it's true.  That's pretty much how it was for me with EQ.  I went to my local game store (of course, computer games aren't purchased at the store anymore) to browse for a good game and I started hearing people talking about this new game called Everquest.  I didn't buy it at first, but people kept talking about it.  Finally my brother told me he bought it and it was awesome.  That's what pushed it over the edge for me.

Nightbringe1

Gyva02 said:

TheScavenger said:

 

So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience. 

lol... 

Agreed: LoL

I played and enjoyed Vanguard for years.

Granted, I did not spend as much time in Vanguard as I did EQ, but then, I was still active in my EQ guild at the time. Vanguard was what I played when nothing else was going on.

delete5230

Zindaihas said:

Your entire premise is based on Vanguard's track record.  Pantheon is not Vanguard.  Ergo, your post is mere speculation.  You could be right.  You also could be dead wrong.  Why don't we just wait and see what happens.  It's sort of like the games that people boldly declared "WoW killers", only in reverse.  Now people are declaring games failures before they are even released.  If the game is good, that's no guarantee it will be a hit, but it's much more likely.

Don't discount the word of mouth factor.  If the game is addictive, word will get out, and other gamers will want to see for themselves if it's true.  That's pretty much how it was for me with EQ.  I went to my local game store (of course, computer games aren't purchased at the store anymore) to browse for a good game and I started hearing people talking about this new game called Everquest.  I didn't buy it at first, but people kept talking about it.  Finally my brother told me he bought it and it was awesome.  That's what pushed it over the edge for me.

You bring up something intriguing.

"Don't discount the word of mouth factor" 

I'm back to 7 days to die.  I get sick of it after playing it for so long, stop then play again.  Every now and again, it pops back up on steam to remind me.  It's not the greatest game by far, but very addictive when played. 

On a separate note, I can't help but think this indie crowed funded game turned extremely successful...... However I have no real prof of that.  Steam seems to be the only advertisement, yet it works.

Something else, It's one of the few games that became popular even being released in a crude alpha stage.  In the beginning it was never broken, but very crude.  Not sure if this could be considered "word of mouth". 

Most mmo's cant seem to get away with crude alpha like this... or could it ? 

Eldrach

Vrika said:

Expect SOE didn't ever really try fix Vanguard. Everyone could see that a large dev team needed to make good flow of new content and fix all the old problems just wasn't there. It was a half-assed attempt by SOE, who could have made a lot better.

If the devs don't believe in their own game then most of the fans aren't going to believe for long either.

Pantheon is a different game in a different situation. It's likely to fail too, but imho for different reason than why Vanguard failed.

Well actually they did fix most of the bugs, and the new starting area was very good. The problem with Vanguard was the lack of new content. They fixed the release content, made a new starting hub..and then..nothing.

SpottyGekko

The idea of "fail" is highly subjective, of course.

A game like "WWII-Online", which has been running for 16 years, "failed" because it doesn't have a huge player base and doesn't make millions in revenue. Yet it still has players, and the money it does generate keeps the devs from starving.

Pantheon may indeed "fail", but that doesn't mean it won't be played by a few thousand people for the next 10 years...

delete5230

SpottyGekko said:

The idea of "fail" is highly subjective, of course.

A game like "WWII-Online", which has been running for 16 years, "failed" because it doesn't have a huge player base and doesn't make millions in revenue. Yet it still has players, and the money it does generate keeps the devs from starving.

Pantheon may indeed "fail", but that doesn't mean it won't be played by a few thousand people for the next 10 years...

This is true, 

Millions get on American Airlines flights everyday.  Yet they clam their broke.  But they don't tell you how they embezzle all the money and leave nothing   

Loke666

It is all a matter of definition. Pantheon certainly wont be the next Wow, or even the ESO or GW2 but it doesn't try to.

Niche games can still do pretty fine though, Eve is a good example. It certainly is niche but it have hold a pretty respectable playerbase for a long time now.

Pantheons goal is to keep developing it and have enough players to do some kind of profit. The numbers they need for that is rather modest so I think they can do that unless they botch things up.

Vanguard when it released is not a great example. First it was a different time back then with plenty of classic MMOs still viable for the people who wanted something more classical. That is not the case anymore, 10 more years have lead those games to be totally dated and many of them have been updated a few times too many.

Secondly, Vanguard was revamped once before launch that certainly messed things up, it changed programmers during development and SOE released it a year too early.

There was a lot of mistakes involved and Brad have hopefully learned from them.

Finally, not all Pantheons mechanics are classic and if the new ones work out the game will do fine.

cheyane

The developers themselves have modest expectations. Some of the fans of the game though are a bit potty thinking it will draw huge numbers but that is understandable given the lack of games that cater to this niche.

Kayo83

Yeah, chances are slim itll be anything more than a niche game... but it may be an unexpected sleeper/cult hit like say Dark Souls was. Definitely not Warcraft huge but a good, well designed, fun game that genuinely challenges players and sucks them into its world can quickly pick up a lot of steam.

VR just has to deliver on that... (no pressure)

Dullahan

Comparing Vanguard was a flaky premise, though I do believe if Visionary Realms compromises and were to incorporate the convenience features Vanguard added, it will suffer the same way.

Pantheon has to be different. Competing with modern mmos is not an option.

Sovrath

TheScavenger said:

So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience.

I subbed to the game (not the Sony pass mind you I wanted them to know where my money was going) up to the announcement it was going to be closed.

There were definitely other people in game. Now, some people don't like to be a part of a game that gives off the impression the developers have forsaken it. So that's another group you haven't taken into account.

So I strongly suspect your statement here isn't backed up by much of anything.