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150000-200000 Subscribers!!
CobraSolidus
Member Posts: 369
So Q3 went by and FUNCOM, in spite of what the Phd forum trolls said made a ton of money in Q3. Operation profit of 5.5 Mill USD and Net after tax 2.5 Mill USD. FUNCOM has more cash in the bank and every Viking in Norway smiles now. What is better though, is that revenue guiding (and I think FC has shown that they give good and realistic guidings) for Q4 is 8-10 Mill USD. If you translate that to subscribers it is easy to see that AoC on average has 150000-200000 paying playing subscribers right now. In other words xfire trolls, it is time to realize that even though playtime by the xfire customers got reduced with 90%, the number of subs are much much better. So why am I posting this, whats my motivation? Well, I enjoy discussing games in their forum. It's kind of a warm up at the end of the day before I am going home from work before actually firing up the game. By posting this, giving a link to the FC Q3 report, I hope everybody can use that link, read up and comprehend how AoC is doing in terms of subnumbers and what good stuff there is for us in the future.
Avery I don't know how to put in urls here in this thread. It would be very good if you could stuff in the slides showing the numbers from Q3. Otherwise I stick in the link here. Read it so you would understand why stockanalyitic forum trolls are just right out silly. Put in comments as you'd like
www.funcom.com/funcom/frontend/files/CONTENT/Funcom_Q308_presentation_2912.pdf
Comments
Cobra, i really want to be on your side and other AOC fans so could you throw me a buddy pass
So? the game had its chance for my dollar, they blew it.
When I said i had "time", i meant virtual time, i got no RL "time" for you.
Thats totally ok because guess what we are not supposed to play stuff we don't like.
Again, the post is not ment to say anything about AoC, promote it as a super product or whatever. I just want to make sure people go and read that FC made over 5.5 Mill USD operational profit in Q3 and that this can be remembered when the next doomtrollers show up.
So again to remember:
1. FUNCOM made millions of USD in Q3. (Which we hope will be reinjected into the AoC project)
2. AoC has at this point 150 000 - 200 000 subscribers. (and hopefully the new content will improve that)
Fellow MMORPGers with some IQ, read it and remember it till the day somebody want to make up stories again.
I don't know why you keep making up that 150k number. You keep forgeting about the 6M from 2nd quarter, the 1-2M from box sales from the 2nd quarter and the .6M from Plutolife. All of those things need to be subtracted before you can calculate the number of subscribers.
It's more like 75-100k.. which is not terrible, but certainly not a great thing.
Funcom stock tanked today (down 20%). If the numbers released by Funcom were at all good, the stock would not have lost 20% of it's value in 7 hours.
By the way, did Funcom announce they were going to do an emmissions today? Wasn't that your big plan to save the company.
well always said this game had around 200 000 to 250 000 subs at this momnent, what is about half of what most die hards points, and 2 times more than most haters shouted. it still means a 75% pop drop from the high times after release.
A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.
Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher.
Help me understand.....if FC is in such great shape why did the AOC director get pushed out of the company ?
Op I really feel sorry for you. Man there is SOOOOOOO much you didnt account for. LOL I wish it was just that easy. Like you can look at some paper for lol what 15min and ..HEY look I see where every dime went.. Funcom made MILLIONS! pffft..
Around 150k is a good number.
Even with the 6millions they "recount", and comparing with the projection posted here with the balance it comes near to this number.
But also, let's see Q4 when the second comming (WotLK) shakes the mmog and without "error recount".
These kind of posts are just as bad as the people who unrealistically troll. Please, two wrongs do not make a right. Please show me numbers in that article showing 150000-200000 subscribers instead of assuming so. You cannot guess subscription numbers from finances, as there are numerous ways the company has gained profit from those numbers.
Please, be realistic. Don't make baseless assumptions and claim them to be true when there is no factual evidence. If you are going to say FC has 150,000-200,000 current subscribers, at least have the decency to say you are making a guess rather then saying "if you translate that to subscribers it is easy to see that AoC on average has 150000-200000 paying playing subscribers right now". These forums have gone to chaos; the only things I can find nowadays are posts like these or the posts that say this game is doomed. It is absolutely not doing very well but it's not going to be failing (at least not for a long while). It takes alot to take out an MMO, even one as extensive (and expensive, no doubt) as AoC.
A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.
Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher.
Explain to me what 150K is? The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September. Now answer this.. On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have? 415k. If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.
If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August, ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th. Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.
Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June. How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.
Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance. Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day. $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.
56,000 is probably spot on correct. +/- 20,000 subs. People, get real.
Gotto agree mate.
It is all assumption simple as that and people looking to wing it one way or another when they have no interest in the game.
{ Mod Edit }
Come on guys lighten up. I am of the same opinion as you guys. I really wish for these forums to be game discussion forum instead of trolling about all kinds of other stuff. Anyway, as Q3 is now out, I just want to make sure all people have access to it and that they are pointed in the right direction for knowing how to make themselves up an opinion on population numbers and it's future. This will undoubtly be usefull for the future when doomsayers again start to moan around in our forum. Petition, lets make this forum to a game discussion forum on the note that AoC has healthy subnumbers in referance to the many doomish posts by Azrile and other analytics.
I think about 100K subs is about right.
Over-optimism can lead to disappointment.
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Guys! I'm hopelessly lost in a mountain of mole hills! Them damn moles!
The way you wish to do so doesn't solve anything. If you wish to give some insight, please do so in a reasonable fashion. (EDIT: AA goes further into this in his response below mine I see.) It may seem miniscule, but it is important nonetheless when you take something as factual evidence when it outright isn't. Not to mention, some of the people that are believed to be trolls around here are actually giving some pretty good facts. Just because they dislike the game does not make them a troll, though there are plenty of trolls here that are evident (I'd agree with AA on that, lum is one). Maybe we just have different definitions of trolls.
to be perfectly honest, I highly doubt I will be playing this game again; I do not like FCs business practices and that is enough for me to not be apart of anything they make, simple as that. However, I am highly interested in how their business practices work for them, and so far, they seem to be going more fluently then I expected (I'd merely guess now it's maybe in the 75k range, which is most likely more then enough to survive). Whether the game succeeds or fails is not of great importance to me (I'd prefer it to fail, in perfect honesty), but it fascinates me how FC turns this game around, if at all. If you enjoy the game, that's fantastic; I am not one of the folks around here who seem to have the idea that anyone who likes this game is insane. However, I hate posts like this that are overly positive and unrealistic of this game, being good or bad.
But cheers to a hopefully civil forum in the future for these sides of the forums, at least eventually (although highly doubtful). I won't be much apart of it; I haven't been posting in these forums barely at all since I've left the game. But as a watcher and someone who comes to these sides from time to time I would like to see more posts that are not dribble.
I agree about informing people and pointing them in the right direction too. I think there are many variables in predicting and the only people whom know for sure is Funcom. I think all the other income from FC apart from AoC is too hard to break down properly, even if it was 1 mill from the top end 10 they forecast leaving 9 then over 3 months / $15 leaves 200k subs but its not that easy just to say that. I maintain the viewpoint that the best judge is from those playing the game and then thats only a server specific look. Obviously there are plenty letting their feeling known in the worse possible way to reason even more for their departure which doesn't change the fact that for many those experiences months back are outdated and not current.
The main things to remember are that they don't need additional funding next year which means they are self reliant meaning they are not going anywhere. In turn this should provide the reader/potential player/current subscriber safe knowledge that all is ok in this area and therefore can concentrate on enjoying the game and making minds up in game from own experiences.
Well it's not like I made up the numbers. All you need to do is to go and have a look for yourself. 75000 is too low as that only gives 3 375 000 USD in income. FC said themselves that they expect 8-10 this Quarter. Since when was AoC not the main source of income for FC? If you double your number to 150000 at least revenue from AoC would be a bit more belivable (6 750 000 USD), which still well below guided revenue.
Exactly, and this is more or less the only thing that counts in terms of numbers.
Actually what I find funny is they are taking reported "profit" and trying to divide that and come up with a number of subscribers.
Beyond the fact you have other sources as noted...
Profit... is what you have after operating costs are subtracted...
Profit <> Gross Income...
And the after tax figure is just that... after tax which has nothing to do with operating costs.
You need to know the total income (not the profit) and yes obviously you'd have to know how much was just from AoC to even guess at subscriber numbers.
Right on. What the numbers show is that Funcom has money in the bank.
Now if they put that to good use and add end game content to AoC, they will get many players back.
Oki, for what it is worth. This patch is very active, Many players tonight. I think many players play.
If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
maybe the reason the stocks dropped is because alot of the stocks droped today I think all the Dow Jones dropped like 500 total
After going from the PVE server where my whole guild left the game (less maybe 2 ppl )... then starting fresh with the PvP server and maxing out my ToS to find that kylikki was almost impossible to beat due to her major bugs and finding that PvP in Wild Lands and Khesh was keeping me playing I can say that imo this game was really lacking content ... end game didn't even exist ... gems were so OP that one hit by a guardian and i saw stars =P and after being killed over and over I began to wonder if maybe I just liked the smell of dirt =P OR that they should have removed the gems a little earlier ^^ ... either way a game that fixes instances like catacombs (which really wasn't one of the zones that needed any fixing) has their priorities a little backwards . Hey I have to say one thing the combat system is the best I have seen and was alot of fun and the fact that as a healer I didn't just watch health bars was a big plus 2 and that my dps kicked butt in PVE but again here is another game that lost its population due to the lack of content and the fact that the game engine sucked =D
Vanguard ... bugs bugs bugs and oh more bugs
AoC... good combat system , lack of higher lvl content and that most ppls computers couldn't handle it even though they had amazing systems
Scneario hammer (Warhammer ) well what can i say another game quickly losing its players due to lack of end game content /players ... RvR was not like DaoC lets just say that
hmmm maybe Aion will be more promising =D (2009 =( sigh hehe )