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Darkfall is going to get 300-350k players from launch
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Humm lets see it appears your trying to encourage trolling rather then rational discussion with your post. kind of funny you got insulted by another fan rather then a troll.
So whats a good discussion point for this thread from us trolls? (as you have called me) I guess i shouldn't question your point that you have been right every time darkfall has come through, like darkfalls promised set in stone 2008 release? Meh thats been pointed out before, no sense rehashing, it you still believe you were always right. and still attempt to troll bait.
How about if Darkfall does get 300K subs in the first month do you think they will be prepared to handle it? Many MMO's before have not. lets take WoW for example. the first month or two Blizzard which is a huge company as compared to Aventurine was in no way shape or form prepared to handle the deluge of players WoW recieved. servers were down almost every other day, long ques when they were up, it was a mess that frustrated many players. So assuming DF does get the large amount of players your expecting do you think they will be prepared and able to launch all the new servers etc.?
lol thanks for the bump!
obviously everyone knows this was an obvious troll but good for a laugh. the fear of this game is amazing.
10k subs on release....lol
You are welcome even if you can't understand what I wrote. I stated it would be lucky to have 10k subs AFTER the first month.
I fully believe there are enough rabid fanbois out there to purchase 50k retail units at launch. 4 out of 5 won't continue after the first month. The other 1 just goes on believing it's the best thing since sliced bread.
Good luck with that and your reading comprehension.
Sorry, but you're in no position to be saying this. No one is, except the closed beta testers (When actually even they're not, because the NDA is still in effect). Actually, I am in a position to say this. It's my opinion.
We haven't played the game yet, we don't know. If this game turns out to be what it promised, it will be a masterpeice and will have a big impact on the MMO market. Do you agree or not?
If FORD announced a new supercool vehicle that uses no gas or electricity and stated it will have cool features like a built in coffeemaker, jacuzzi and masseur on demand, I would think that is pretty nifty.
If FORD never let anyone see and talk about the vehicle, not even respected news organizations or consumer review or safety tests, I'd still keep an eye out but would be skeptical.
When FORD delivers a YUGO with AM radio... I'll just laugh.
Of course that's just a rational persons opinion. Your rationality may differ from the norm.
Now should it deliver everything it promises, then yes, it would be a masterpiece but a rational person would expect only pieces of the master plan and not the masterpiece you so want.
Why did Dark and Light have 300,000+ people on their forums with over 1,000 actively browsing at any given time?
Want to know WHY the Darkfall forums have 200,000 registered users? Because 90% of those people registered with in the last 2 months or so and only did so because they want a free beta to play. Which at this point they're never going to see.
You are so naive that it's just laughable.
Do you honestly believe that every person that registers on a message board is going to pay to play anythning?
Here's a wake up call for you - THEY WON"T.
This game IF it ever launches.. will be VERY VERY LUCKY to get and hold even 30,000 players for a year in todays MMO market.
The first potentially good fantasy sandbox since UO will of course get a really high number of subs on a good release.
Youre just fooling yourself if you think anything else.
I can see way over a million subs for the game on a good release and all features in.
omg dillusional fanboi
...........
Call me a troll if you want (well all fanboi do this when you dont agree with them) but i dont say this game will not be good, i dont say its vaporware, but damn over a million subs?? geez man you are a optimist one that for sure......... If Darkfall can get 100 or maibe 150k subs (active subs and not the 30 free day susb who dont resubs), then this game will be a huge succes.
You seem to forget that the mass now want thempark mmo like wow, in fact they want wow 2 so you can dreamed if you want but that just a dream.
Lets just say i have WAY more experience of this genre then you have. And on a good release Darkfall will have over a million subs.
Dont underestimate the sandbox games. Think of this for a while before you respond - how many fantasy sandboxes like UO have we seen since 2003? People havent seen and played a game like Darkfall for 5 years. They havent had a chance doing it cause there were no such games arround. The potential for Darkfall on a good release is nothing but amazing, a million subs, at least.
lol thanks for the bump!
obviously everyone knows this was an obvious troll but good for a laugh. the fear of this game is amazing.
10k subs on release....lol
You are welcome even if you can't understand what I wrote. I stated it would be lucky to have 10k subs AFTER the first month.
I fully believe there are enough rabid fanbois out there to purchase 50k retail units at launch. 4 out of 5 won't continue after the first month. The other 1 just goes on believing it's the best thing since sliced bread.
Good luck with that and your reading comprehension.
Sorry, but you're in no position to be saying this. No one is, except the closed beta testers (When actually even they're not, because the NDA is still in effect). Actually, I am in a position to say this. It's my opinion.
We haven't played the game yet, we don't know. If this game turns out to be what it promised, it will be a masterpeice and will have a big impact on the MMO market. Do you agree or not?
If FORD announced a new supercool vehicle that uses no gas or electricity and stated it will have cool features like a built in coffeemaker, jacuzzi and masseur on demand, I would think that is pretty nifty.
If FORD never let anyone see and talk about the vehicle, not even respected news organizations or consumer review or safety tests, I'd still keep an eye out but would be skeptical.
When FORD delivers a YUGO with AM radio... I'll just laugh.
Of course that's just a rational persons opinion. Your rationality may differ from the norm.
Now should it deliver everything it promises, then yes, it would be a masterpiece but a rational person would expect only pieces of the master plan and not the masterpiece you so want.
omg dillusional fanboi
...........
Call me a troll if you want (well all fanboi do this when you dont agree with them) but i dont say this game will not be good, i dont say its vaporware, but damn over a million subs?? geez man you are a optimist one that for sure......... If Darkfall can get 100 or maibe 150k subs (active subs and not the 30 free day susb who dont resubs), then this game will be a huge succes.
You seem to forget that the mass now want thempark mmo like wow, in fact they want wow 2 so you can dreamed if you want but that just a dream.
Relax Silok its just his opinion and everyone allowed a opinion. (good or bad, pro or con) Don't let the fans bait you because some of them will try. In the end we will see on Jan 22nd or we'll have to wait some more. (even if there is another delay then I full and well believe some of the fans will proclaim it another vistory)
the guys optimistic I'm happy for him, and if DF does get 300+ subs and can handle them it will be a boon for the genre overall (increasing investor confidence in a time of global recession). As long as he's not trying to force his opinion on others or hype the games features to extreme likely unreachable levels i've got no problem with him. (and god knows i get labled a troll here at least twice a day that i'm on)
lol thanks for the bump!
obviously everyone knows this was an obvious troll but good for a laugh. the fear of this game is amazing.
10k subs on release....lol
You are welcome even if you can't understand what I wrote. I stated it would be lucky to have 10k subs AFTER the first month.
I fully believe there are enough rabid fanbois out there to purchase 50k retail units at launch. 4 out of 5 won't continue after the first month. The other 1 just goes on believing it's the best thing since sliced bread.
Good luck with that and your reading comprehension.
Sorry, but you're in no position to be saying this. No one is, except the closed beta testers (When actually even they're not, because the NDA is still in effect). Actually, I am in a position to say this. It's my opinion.
We haven't played the game yet, we don't know. If this game turns out to be what it promised, it will be a masterpeice and will have a big impact on the MMO market. Do you agree or not?
If FORD announced a new supercool vehicle that uses no gas or electricity and stated it will have cool features like a built in coffeemaker, jacuzzi and masseur on demand, I would think that is pretty nifty.
If FORD never let anyone see and talk about the vehicle, not even respected news organizations or consumer review or safety tests, I'd still keep an eye out but would be skeptical.
When FORD delivers a YUGO with AM radio... I'll just laugh.
Of course that's just a rational persons opinion. Your rationality may differ from the norm.
Now should it deliver everything it promises, then yes, it would be a masterpiece but a rational person would expect only pieces of the master plan and not the masterpiece you so want.
Thank you.
Yes I know it's your oppinion, but like the rest of the 'Darkfall haters' or whatever on this forum - You're saying 'The game WILL suck, the game WILL lose all of its playerbase after first month'... How the hell would you know? You haven't played the game, and it hasn't launched yet.
Sorry if I'm coming accross as an arse, just gets to me a bit.
_________
Currently playing: Black Desert Korea (Waiting for EU)
Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.
Why did Dark and Light have 300,000+ people on their forums with over 1,000 actively browsing at any given time?
Want to know WHY the Darkfall forums have 200,000 registered users? Because 90% of those people registered with in the last 2 months or so and only did so because they want a free beta to play. Which at this point they're never going to see.
You are so naive that it's just laughable.
Do you honestly believe that every person that registers on a message board is going to pay to play anythning?
Here's a wake up call for you - THEY WON"T.
This game IF it ever launches.. will be VERY VERY LUCKY to get and hold even 30,000 players for a year in todays MMO market.
The first potentially good fantasy sandbox since UO will of course get a really high number of subs on a good release.
Youre just fooling yourself if you think anything else.
I can see way over a million subs for the game on a good release and all features in.
omg dillusional fanboi
...........
Call me a troll if you want (well all fanboi do this when you dont agree with them) but i dont say this game will not be good, i dont say its vaporware, but damn over a million subs?? geez man you are a optimist one that for sure......... If Darkfall can get 100 or maibe 150k subs (active subs and not the 30 free day susb who dont resubs), then this game will be a huge succes.
You seem to forget that the mass now want thempark mmo like wow, in fact they want wow 2 so you can dreamed if you want but that just a dream.
Lets just say i have WAY more experience of this genre then you have. And on a good release Darkfall will have over a million subs.
Dont underestimate the sandbox games. Think of this for a while before you respond - how many fantasy sandboxes like UO have we seen since 2003? People havent seen and played a game like Darkfall for 5 years. They havent had a chance doing it cause there were no such games arround. The potential for Darkfall on a good release is nothing but amazing, a million subs, at least.
Like i said your are a dillusinal fanboi... what make you think you do have more experience than i have? you are what some gods who can know a person over the net??
And its funny because you talk about Darkfall like it was some masterpiece.. but in fact this is just a game and we dont even know if it will deliver all they say it will but still you are there and you swing your fanboi sword and try to convince everyone that your opinion is the only one. Funny enough
omg dillusional fanboi
...........
Call me a troll if you want (well all fanboi do this when you dont agree with them) but i dont say this game will not be good, i dont say its vaporware, but damn over a million subs?? geez man you are a optimist one that for sure......... If Darkfall can get 100 or maibe 150k subs (active subs and not the 30 free day susb who dont resubs), then this game will be a huge succes.
You seem to forget that the mass now want thempark mmo like wow, in fact they want wow 2 so you can dreamed if you want but that just a dream.
Relax Silok its just his opinion and everyone allowed a opinion. (good or bad, pro or con) Don't let the fans bait you because some of them will try. In the end we will see on Jan 22nd or we'll have to wait some more. (even if there is another delay then I full and well believe some of the fans will proclaim it another vistory)
the guys optimistic I'm happy for him, and if DF does get 300+ subs and can handle them it will be a boon for the genre overall (increasing investor confidence in a time of global recession). As long as he's not trying to force his opinion on others or hype the games features to extreme likely unreachable levels i've got no problem with him. (and god knows i get labled a troll here at least twice a day that i'm on)
Im relax but this is not the point you say everyone has the right to have their opinions and this is truth but this Aragon100 doesnt care about the others opinions he is only here to preach about is dream. So i got the right to answer him the way i do.
Lets not get into the my experience is bigger then your experience arguement.
You say you think Darkfall will a million subs at least. My honest question being when do you think it will hit that number out of curiousity, the first month, 3 months later, 1 year? etc etc.
A million is a pretty big number don't think WAR has sold that many and its had a big PR spin, I'm also skeptical that there are that many people that enjoy being ganked and FFA looted, but that is my opinion and untill we see how DF handles the details really pretty pointless to speculate.
LOL f*** you. You are you calling 'very misguided' your arrogant c***. I was playing MMO's when you were in nappies son.
I have played the majority of MMO since The Realm and UO. I have never seen the level of interest in such a low key game in the history of MMO's. I stand by my original statement. 300k minimum.
Funny to see them turn on their own.
And for the love of god downtoearth learn to freaking type or find spellchecker, I feel llke I'm reading a 2nd grade book report.
Just shut the fuck up. All cant write as fluedly as anyone else. Whats wrong with you? Give the guy a break. He is doing his best and dont need you to be all over him, capiche?
It's not a matter of writing fluidly, it's spelling as if you're not a 3rd grader on daddy's computer. Caphice?
I certainly hope you are correct, but even I have to ask what orifice you are pulling these numbers from...?
That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!
I can understand it 'getting' to you. I understand you desperately want everything they say to be true. I wish it were so and hope, for you, it is.
The rest of us have seen tons of games go down in flames or release with serious lackluster like AoC and WAR. (both of which I also called
)
For a game to present itself with such an utter lack of information as it has is a serious issue, one that I believe has never occured in the industry before.
I was easily able to call issues with other games and see there flameout before launch. It was easy to do with the simple facts and information provided.
One simply does not blindly trust in a developer who gives you virtually no information. A rational person would remain interested but HIGHLY skeptical.
But regardless of all that, this IS A NICHE GAME. It's open PVP. NICHE... which means a relatively small market segment under the BEST of circumstances.... and let's face it.. .the circumstances are pretty much in the toilet.
I'm seeing alot of players out there that is tired of levelbased, themepark games with meaningless PvP. EvE is doing ok but new playes seems to be behind forever. With skillcap, I'm not seing any player in godmode. Which promotes tactics and cooperation.
I am seeing 270k subs at launch if open beta is successful and 600k subs within a year if the launch is successful.
---
And when we got more women on the team, it was like No, no, no. We need puppies and horses in there.
John Smedley, SOE
In reply to the last few posts on Page 5, no one in particular though - So I won't quote:
Just think about the market Darkfall appeals to. People say it is a niche game, appealing to a niche market (that being the 'sandbox MMO player' market). However, I disagree with that. It doesn't appeal to only a niche market at all.
Think about how many players want an MMO with 'freedom', no instances and full loot. EvE has all that, actually. But that is also a slow, spaceship MMO. A damn lot of people don't like spaceships, so they won't play it. Also, it is a slow game - like I said, and alot of people can't get into it. Despite those facts, look at how many players are logged onto it all the time: 50,000. Think about how many of them are playing it just because of the fact it's a sandbox, and think about how many EvE players would want to try Darkfall, and imagine how many would stay.
Now look at Runescape (sorry for using this as an example guys), look at how many players frequent that game, because they enjoy being able to do more than just killing stuff. People love to craft, and Darkfall also offers this - in a sandbox world of fear.
Now, assuming Darkfall is a success in the MMO market, alot of sandbox players and general MMO enthusiasts are playing - it has around 200,000 subs and it's a few months into launch.
Just imagine what could happen now. This game uses FPS Mechanics, a f***ing mass market of gamers in general. Information about Darkfall gets to those people (wether by a review, a banner on a website, whatever), just imagine what could happen.
All of this stuff I wrote, is assuming Darkfall is what it promises.
Just think about what it could do, it does not appeal only to a niche market like people are implying.
EDIT (posts were made whilst I was writing mine): Yes, the game is Full-loot Open PvP, but this factor will work well with the game mechanics. Items won't just go to one person and stay on him forever, items will be getting passed around, sold and bought, fought for, and crafted. The economy will move around.
_________
Currently playing: Black Desert Korea (Waiting for EU)
Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.
3/4 of the people I know from WoW, SWG Pre-CU/NGE (yes I still talk to pretty many of them) and other games, will jump on this like a rabid Bunny..
That being said: Take a chill pill, Kill bill..
Amazing how a game can get people worked up... its absolutely amazing
I can only speak for my own experiences here. I feel the biggest hurdle Darkfall will have initially is, no one knows it exists. To clarify, all the people I know who game have never heard of it or know it is even coming. I have told some friends about it to see what they think. Not really gotten any feedback though.
Ok Aragon the 1mil is not realy realistic but your 500k is a pretty good guess after NA launch.
In my opinion there will be around 500k initialy after NA launch, after a month or so it will dwindle down to around 250-300k and build from there. There are many interested in DarkFall and there are many that will simply give it a try because it's something new.
People seem to make the false assumption all the time that the forums represent either all of the MMORPG community or even the majority. The fact is we that visit the forums and register are a small percentage. This is fact. MMORPG.com is a good testiment to that, you figure there is around 15-20mil MMORPGr's and even MMORPG.com a site that hosts forums for pretty much all MMORPG's has not even 1mil registerd members. Even official forums fail to grab even half the community of that specific game. With 200k+ registerd on DarkFall official forums you get a general idea of the interest level, with the launch date now announced I predict around 250-280k registerd members on the official forums by January. This will still not represent the whole of the DarkFall community. But I will say that in a sandbox type of MMORPG it is traditional that a larger percentage of forum goers than in Themepark MMORPG's for the simple fact the community is more important in these type of games.
I am sorry but for those trying to deny the interest level of this style of MMORPG, your being a bit thick headed and unrealistic. If this isn't the type of MMO you like then thats fine, but dismissing the FACT that there are many that ARE interested in this type of MMO is assinine. Many went to AoC because they were hoping to find the UO esque gameplay. They were dissapointed, myself included. Yes AoC hyped the freedom as well as the FFA PvP it didn't have full loot but I was willing to give it a shot myself, I got burned lol, it was a Conan skinned WoW and becoming more and more like WoW by the patch.
So tldr;
500k on launch? Yes, once NA launch is official 500k is a good guestimate.
1mil subs after? No, bit unrealistic. 250-300k is a better guess, it's a niche game because of the FFA PvP and full loot many just won't cut it.
10k Subs? lol is all I can say, feel free to try again basing your opinion on facts instead of your blind faith that the game is nothing but a failure in the making.
50k subs? Nah, with the ammount of people interested in a new Sandbox with that UO feel and with those just utterly bored with themeparks that all want to be WoW this isn't a realy good prediction either.
If you think full loot PvP MOs aren't a niche market, at least in the west, you're not paying attention to the trend in MMOs established evenbefore Trammel. The crafting in Darkfall is basic according to the Developers. Twitch gaming has yet to be successfully implemented in MMOs and is itself a niche market.
It's a crafting system similar to UO. You go get raw material, turn them into usable refined material and craft the item. Thats why it is considerd simple, there is no grind for level 100 smithing, then turn around and hope you get this rare item that has a .01% drop rate off of a mob that takes 2 full alliances to kill and only spawns once every 48 hours....................
You go mine "Ore" or kill animals and skin them for leather ect. The game uses logical loot and such. If the mob has it they can use it and you can loot it. Animals like sheep have wool, some have hides that are used in leather crafting ect.
This is what makes it simple. Add in the fact that you can make any item in game and create new items not yet in the game the crafting system gets even deeper than UO's was and UO by far had one of the best crafting systems in any game ever.
Of course this is just an opinion of mine based on the information I have available.
Sandbox games are tricky. Without story dirven content like quests you need far more complex systems, mechancis and tools to retain player interest and to allow them to generate there own 'conetent'. Ryzom was a pretty good sandbox game and look what happened there.
If it had launched worldwide it may have hit 200-250k day one. I guess a bit more than half that with EU only. Of course how many are retained or added depends on the game.
If you think full loot PvP MOs aren't a niche market, at least in the west, you're not paying attention to the trend in MMOs established evenbefore Trammel. The crafting in Darkfall is basic according to the Developers. Twitch gaming has yet to be successfully implemented in MMOs and is itself a niche market.
Yes, I know full loot PvP is niche. But I was combining that, and all the other players the game appeals to. Like I said, EvE is a full loot PvP MMO, and look at the 50,000 players logged in at any given time. They must have about 500,000 subs.
Aswell as that, like you said: 'Twitch gaming has yet to be successfully implemented in MMOs and is itself a niche market'. That is correct, meaning that if it's a success, along with DFs other features - The game will be a BIG hit. Because it appeals to twitch FPS players aswell, which is a mass market.
And I know the crafting system is basic, it's basic in Runescape aswell - But people do it and enjoy it, obviously. The fact this game has crafting in, and almost every item in-game is craftable, means crafting will have a huge impact on the games economy. It will appeal to people who like to craft, some people prefer it basic / simple.
_________
Currently playing: Black Desert Korea (Waiting for EU)
Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.
My guesses:
A bad launch will leave DF with 50k-70k subs a year after launch
An ok launch will leave DF with 150k-200k subs a year after launch
A good launch will leave DF with 250k-300k subs a year after launch
A great launch? Depends... I'd say anything between 350k-600k subs a year after launch...
But who knows?? Only time will tell
Edit: No launch will leave Tasos will no balls left
Crafting grind was the basis of UO crafting. You'd better hope it's not similar to the UO system or everyone will be naked. No you don't have to grind to level 100 smithing. You have to grind to 100% smithing. The question is how much of a grind. Hopefully not much. I keep hearing these little voices telling me gear won't really matter and there won't be any uber gear so how are crafters supposed to go into the wilderness and find all these varied materials from while constantly being subject to attack profitably? How much time would you spend fsarming to buy disposable armor that's supposedly readily available from humanoid mobs? Basic crafting is complex topic.
Now, these are things we don't know. We have no idea of the actual numbers of the game, if you get what I mean. We'll just have to wait and see.
But, about the 'gear won't matter' statement: Of course it will! Just not as much as in other MMO's.
Somewhere, a dev said that a handfull of fairly new players (possibly playing for a month) who are really good at the game, could take out a veterain (playing for 1year+?) who isn't as good at the game skill-wise.
So I'm sure gear will have an impact, ofcourse. Don't just think you're going to be able to take out someone wearing those 'zomgwtf armor peices' with your basic peices. Also, spell and attack levels will haev an impact.
_________
Currently playing: Black Desert Korea (Waiting for EU)
Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.
Crafting grind was the basis of UO crafting. You'd better hope it's not similar to the UO system or everyone will be naked. No you don't have to grind to level 100 smithing. You have to grind to 100% smithing. The question is how much of a grind. Hopefully not much. I keep hearing these little voices telling me gear won't really matter and there won't be any uber gear so how are crafters supposed to go into the wilderness and find all these varied materials from while constantly being subject to attack profitably? How much time would you spend fsarming to buy disposable armor that's supposedly readily available from humanoid mobs? Basic crafting is complex topic.
Ah your one of those that chose to grind. My smith went to GM simply by making gear for my char and my guild. Guild wars were a good way to gain in your crafting skills.
As far as gathering materials, I would recommend as a crafter you stay near allied towns. Your not going to run into many Alfar in Human Territory not to close to home atleast.
Disposable armor is key to a viable market. Without Full loot and item degridation the market becomes stagnant because items are permanent. The same tunic is on the auction house over and over. In DarkFall not only can your items be looted by eventualy they will be destroyed. I truely hope the system is like UO, because UO crafting was the only crafting system I enjoyed. You want to grind you can if you don't simply let it happen naturaly. You make things for a profit or for Clan mates/friends guess what, the skill ups come with it.
The difference in opinion here on the UO crafting system may stem from the fact I am reffering to Pre-AoS, before the game became Item based.
Yes, think about all the multiple accounts you people made in hopes of getting in Beta. Just don't be so silly to think this number is accurate.
Yes, think about all the multiple accounts you people made in hopes of getting in Beta. Just don't be so silly to think this number is accurate.
Nope I am pretty sure he understands that registerd forum members represent a very small percentage of actual follower/community numbers.