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I predict a rapid growth to 12 million players for Wow in the beginning of 2009
bodypass
Member Posts: 770
This forecasting has at least some BODY as apposed to the launched troll post of the Greyhooff alt post.
Since Wow has now 11.5 million players worldwide since Dec http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=355698
Since the basic Wow product even sold MORE new copies in 2008 than in 2007 to new players http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=355698
Since Wotlk hasn't even been released yet in China (wich is supposed to have 55% of the world market)
Wow has now 3 products (WotLK, sub cards, Wow Chest,) in the top 10 of all PC games (hourly updated)
And even today they launched new servers to their game .....
I can pretty much state for sure that there will be 12 million active PAYING subscribers in the first quarter of this year.
At least I got some references
)
Comments
To think, before WoW I thought this genre's population was dieing... even if it doesn' reach 12 million... it's just an entirely different world today
And yet 9 of my RL friends don't play it. Who is playing this game?
The ones who pay Blizzard 1.2 billion dollars a year.
))
http://www.vivendi.com/vivendi/Financial-summary
Agreed. A lot of my RL friends no longer play, and most of the large raid guild I played with pre-BC no longer play (when I quit in '08). I've always wondered HOW this game keeps getting larger.
I agree.
The one that really amazes me is that the original box continues to sell so well in North America. Doomsayers can talk about china, they can talk about 4year old graphics.. but the proof is in the sales charts.
I think 13M is reasonable when they launch wrath is China. The way there system is set up, it is much easier for chinesse players to take a vacation from the game... they don't log in, they don't get counted for that months total. NA players have to make a conscious effort to 'quit'.
There are NA servers that are having queues of over an hour, even though they have launched 30 new servers in the past few months. Just crazy.
Agreed. A lot of my RL friends no longer play, and most of the large raid guild I played with pre-BC no longer play (when I quit in '08). I've always wondered HOW this game keeps getting larger.
That's the difference I can PROVE what I wrote.
While the Wow haters troll without evidence
It's all the loser fathers getting their kids to play that will increase the population. It's sad...
Agreed. A lot of my RL friends no longer play, and most of the large raid guild I played with pre-BC no longer play (when I quit in '08). I've always wondered HOW this game keeps getting larger.
That's the difference I can PROVE what I wrote.
While the Wow haters troll without evidence
In real world terms, new births outnumber that of deaths so theoretically there are more young kids to replace the older players that are leaving or already have.
I know, I know it was a terrible attempt but feasible nonetheless.
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You wouldn't understand
Another "Me and my friends don't play Wow, so nobody must be."
Do you guys ever get to get out of your cornpone towns much and go to the "Big City?"
Btw: I do NOT play Wow either (since about 6 months). Neither do any of my friends/family, but I can tell when something is as it's presented, not hyped.
They have the sales. They have the current subscriptions, and they have the moola. They post regular numbers to support those so conspiracy theorists can try and blow holes in it if they wish. Few other games do that, but claim to be "Number 2" without backing it up with accessible proof.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Agreed. A lot of my RL friends no longer play, and most of the large raid guild I played with pre-BC no longer play (when I quit in '08). I've always wondered HOW this game keeps getting larger.
That's the difference I can PROVE what I wrote.
While the Wow haters troll without evidence
In real world terms, new births outnumber that of deaths so theoretically there are more young kids to replace the older players that are leaving or already have.
I know, I know it was a terrible attempt but feasible nonetheless.
Yep I agree, but replace the word "kids" with new players and we should get along just fine.
That's the little secret of Wow: LONG term subscriptions AND new players coming in (proof are the sales figures of BattleChest andBasic Wow) in the charts.
The continuing high sales of this game is proof that "mouth to mouth" publicity is far stronger than forums.
Giving way to the old Lazarsfeld theories of "opinion leaders" that influence people's behaviour in Real Life far more than ANY mass communication medium (even the internet).
Mouth to mouth sells things.
Only 12 million? I'm sure the fanbois can inflate that number to at least 14.5 million before March alone.
NO because I only use FACTS.
You know the kind of arguments Wow haters don't like.
NO because I only use FACTS.
You know the kind of arguments Wow haters don't like.
So why does Blizzard add constantly new US servers these days?
Because they have more US players than ever. Just read my OP and see why your opinion fails to deliver any FACTS. Fact is that 3 Wow products stay in the top 10 of PC games sales right now as we speak.
As to "move to newer, better games..." please please tell me which games you have in mind, so we can all laugh at these "newer and better" things.
PS. I posted this because I am FED UP with the Wow hater trolls who come jumping in on these WOW forums proclaiming lies about my game of it "dying".
I just gave you a few facts and you can't counter the facts. period.
As profound as this seems on it's surface, this is any MMO so it's really kind of.. 'Captain Obvious to the Rescue!' to include... no offense. Eventually, the sun will explode. Eventually, all the bees will die and life will end. Eventually, EQ1 will die. Eventually.. well you get the point.
Usually when people say 'eventually', its just a way of saying "I have no idea of a real guess based on statistics, so I'll just pad it with infinity".
"TO MICHAEL!"
As profound as this seems on it's surface, this is any MMO so it's really kind of.. 'Captain Obvious to the Rescue!' to include... no offense. Eventually, the sun will explode. Eventually, all the bees will die and life will end. Eventually, EQ1 will die. Eventually.. well you get the point.
Usually when people say 'eventually', its just a way of saying "I have no idea of a real guess based on statistics, so I'll just pad it with infinity".
Yes but WoW is not the sun the bees or anything important, it's just a game. MMOs have a limited span of dominance no matter what game your talking about Uo, EQ etc. WoW is not special in the gaming world it is suspect to the same rules, it will get, well it already is outdated, it's content is already inferior to the LOTR patch and pvp is just a joke, it is already on the way down. Don't get me wrong I am sure the game will settle at the low millions at it's worst until it's completely obsolete 8 years from now, but as far as being taken seriously as the top game by any means is not realistic I think of WoW as more of a Niche Theme park hub.
So why does Blizzard add constantly new US servers these days?
Because they have more US players than ever. Just read my OP and see why your opinion fails to deliver any FACTS. Fact is that 3 Wow products stay in the top 10 of PC games sales right now as we speak.
As to "move to newer, better games..." please please tell me which games you have in mind, so we can all laugh at these "newer and better" things.
PS. I posted this because I am FED UP with the Wow hater trolls who come jumping in on these WOW forums proclaiming lies about my game of it "dying".
I just gave you a few facts and you can't counter the facts. period.
you fail to deliver facts too, Top 10 PC sales in the US are
1. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King / Blizzard / $39 (Average)
2. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe / EA Maxis / $18 (Average)
3. Spore / EA Maxis / $47 (Average)
4. Left 4 Dead / Valve / $47 (Average)
5. The Sims 2 Apartment Life Exp. Pack / EA Maxis / $20 (Average)
6. Fallout 3 / Bethesda / $47 (Average)
7. Call Of Duty: World At War / Treyarch / $50 (Average)
8. World Of Warcraft Battle Chest / Blizzard / $32 (Average)
9. The Sims 2 Mansion & Garden Stuff Exp. / EA Maxis / $18 (Average)
10. Bejewled Twist / PopCap / $20 (Average)
That's according to NPD or even a quick google will reveal the facts. Where are you getting your "fact" that "3 WoW products stay in the top 10?
I have been a die hard PC gamer for the last 15+ years and even I am starting to resign to the fact that PC is a dying platform for gaming; all the AAA titles bar World of Warcraft are on consoles.
Would you like some more facts? Here are some
Hmmm 3.5+4 = 7.5...? That means 4 million only play WoW classic...I wander who they might be *wink*
http://encyclopediadramatica.com/MMORPG
Yeh saying WoW went from about 7.5 mil to 11.5 million in less than a year and a half is ridiculous and obviously just a sales pitch to 12 year olds.
Does NPD track the entire worlds sales or just the western market....
If you doubt the numbers, just count the number of servers WoW has. It isn't like those are imaginary servers that no one can play on. Most games with a couple hundred thousand subscribers have a dozen or so servers. WoW NA/Eu has close to 500.
*shrug* Some people just want to believe what makes them happiest I guess.
Thats the one I don't understand
AOC = 5 servers in NA with a decent population, 4 in EU
Warhammer = 25 servers in NA that aren't 'closed' and another 10 in EU
WOW = 200 servers in NA, and 200 in EU... a ton of them are in queue every night.
And that is totally excluding Asia, Latin America etc.
Say what you want, but the general atmostphere of the game is as follows : Ive done everything, and Im bored... But there's nothing better out so I'll just play this.
It never occurs to some people that they can just... I don't know; stop fucking playing if they're bored.
There is a fine line between being bored, burned out and wanting a new game to play. They are all different degrees, but I get your meaning.
Once another company finally puts out another decent MMO it will get overwhelmed with players. However people will consume the content at a voracious rate. Just like they do now with WoW which is why there is such burnout.
If there were a couple of decent games that offered a good variety of gameplay options, then the market would most likely spread out more evenly (compared to now) and people could bounce around games when they want something different. Even splitting time between multiple games.
Let's make this as clear as possible:
Wow classic purchases: 11.5 million
Wow-TBC purchases: at least 4 million (now)
Wow-WoTLK purchases: 4 million.
Unlike some MMO's previous expansions are not included in current ones, you MUST buy TBC before it will allow you to play WoTLK.
Therefore 4 million players own Classic, TBC and Lich King, at least 4 million only own classic and TBC. which means 4 million (it may be more) only own classic.
When Burning Crusade was released: according to http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6166937.html Burning Crusade sold 3.5 million and the total number of subscribers was 8.5 million
That meant 5 million only owned classic when TBC was released.
I think it is a safe assumption that the 4 million who bought Lich King already own TBC.
There will not be a rapid growth, because there are less owners of just WoW-classic NOW then when TBC was released, the players are levelling but there are few new players. If you believe they are actually players rather than gold farmers or players with multiple accounts.
To be absolutely certain Blizzard would need to release sales figures of all copies of The Burning Crusade including those in Battlechest.
Later this month we should get Best-selling PC Games of 2008, by units sold, which should for the first time include digital distribution.
To Be Continued...
http://encyclopediadramatica.com/MMORPG
Happyclappy you are now misusing your so-called facts. First, Chinese didn't buy Burning Crusade because they got it for free. Second, I think it's ridiculous from you to make assumption that Burning Crusade, wich sold 3.5 million units in its first month, would 2 years later be owned by only 4 million players. Since Burning Crusade is included in WoW battle chest wich has quite constantly stayed in top 10 games sold over 2 years, the real number of TBC owners has to be much higher. In fact I think it's higher than the number of WoW subcribers in America and Europe counted together, as many people who own TBC must have quit playing WoW and aren't counted as subcribers any more.
Even the Wrath of the Lich King 4 million units sold number is already outdated. It sold over 4 million units in its first month, and was released November 13th. It's been soon 2 months after its release and you are making assumption that it's sales during the last month (50% of time it's been on sale) are so small that they are insignificant in the statistics?
And why on earth are you comparing how much WoW expansions have sold during their first month to how much other games, or even some complete game series, have sold during their existence? Is there any other point than misusing statistics to make WoW look bad?
Let's make this as clear as possible:
Wow classic purchases: 11.5 million
Wow-TBC purchases: at least 4 million (now)
Wow-WoTLK purchases: 4 million.
Unlike some MMO's previous expansions are not included in current ones, you MUST buy TBC before it will allow you to play WoTLK.
Therefore 4 million players own Classic, TBC and Lich King, at least 4 million only own classic and TBC. which means 4 million (it may be more) only own classic.
When Burning Crusade was released: according to http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6166937.html Burning Crusade sold 3.5 million and the total number of subscribers was 8.5 million
That meant 5 million only owned classic when TBC was released.
I think it is a safe assumption that the 4 million who bought Lich King already own TBC.
There will not be a rapid growth, because there are less owners of just WoW-classic NOW then when TBC was released, the players are levelling but there are few new players. If you believe they are actually players rather than gold farmers or players with multiple accounts.
To be absolutely certain Blizzard would need to release sales figures of all copies of The Burning Crusade including those in Battlechest.
Later this month we should get Best-selling PC Games of 2008, by units sold, which should for the first time include digital distribution.
To Be Continued...
The problem with this chain of thought is Chinese players did not purchase TBC. IT was a free upgrade because in China they do not sell expansions like in NA/EU markets.
So all 3-5 million or so Chinese players recieved TBC for FREE.
Currently playing:
LOTRO & WoW (not much WoW though because Mines of Moria rocks!!!!)
Looking Foward too:
Bioware games (Dragon Age & Star Wars The Old Republic)