I had edited my post to put the exact wording in and yes im refering to the stable comment. if it had grown it would say so, so as far as im concerned the words stable and constant were very similar.
Solid and stable doesn't just mean we arn't losing, it means we arn't losing and we arn't gaining. If anything it means they losing but a very small ammount, if they were gaining but only a small ammount it would be a safe bet that it would say they are growing slightly. Presenting the information in the best way possible whilst remaining factual is pretty much what every company does.
I had edited my post to put the exact wording in and yes im refering to the stable comment. if it had grown it would say so, so as far as im concerned the words stable and constant were very similar. Solid and stable doesn't just mean we arn't losing, it means we arn't losing and we arn't gaining. If anything it means they losing but a very small ammount, if they were gaining but only a small ammount it would be a safe bet that it would say they are growing slightly. Presenting the information in the best way possible whilst remaining factual is pretty much what every company does.
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
So basically we have 14 pages of nonsense and litigator was wrong again. Although they'll tell you he's been right every time again next quarter. The game is experiencing modest subscriber growth with attrition at expected or less than expected levels. The stock is reacting favorably to both the Q1 2009 report and the Secret World announcement. Funcom is still not going Bankrupt.
So where do you get the part about modest subscriber growth? Al i saw was a statement on improved retention. If they were losing 50% of their subs last year every quarter a loss of only 10 or 20% could constitute improved retention. No where can I find where they state the population is growing.
I had edited my post to put the exact wording in and yes im refering to the stable comment. if it had grown it would say so, so as far as im concerned the words stable and constant were very similar. Solid and stable doesn't just mean we arn't losing, it means we arn't losing and we arn't gaining. If anything it means they losing but a very small ammount, if they were gaining but only a small ammount it would be a safe bet that it would say they are growing slightly. Presenting the information in the best way possible whilst remaining factual is pretty much what every company does.
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
Cheers
I edited in the exact wording, 2 mins after posting, and 20 minutes before you replied to me, I didn't intend to ignore anything, the post was written from memory, after posting I immediatly went to read the exact words and imeditatly added them as an edit, well before you replied. You can see that is true from the time on my edit and the time you replied to me.
It says a solid and stable subscriber base, yes that absolutly means no growth. If there was growth they would have said so, they commented on increased play time, increased length of subscription and an increase in the number of people trying the game, you honestly think that they wouldn't have said the total subs have increased if they had?
It was the translated article I was commenting on, it doesn't tie in with the report, that either means he was talking about the increase in new people not total subs and thus it was a poorly worded or misleading comment or it was badly translated.
Edit- The simple fact of the matter is the ammount of money coming in dropped, and they predict that next report the ammount of money coming in will have droped even more. No matter how you try to spin it that rules out growth.
So basically we have 14 pages of nonsense and litigator was wrong again. Although they'll tell you he's been right every time again next quarter. The game is experiencing modest subscriber growth with attrition at expected or less than expected levels. The stock is reacting favorably to both the Q1 2009 report and the Secret World announcement. Funcom is still not going Bankrupt.
So where do you get the part about modest subscriber growth? Al i saw was a statement on improved retention. If they were losing 50% of their subs last year every quarter a loss of only 10 or 20% could constitute improved retention. No where can I find where they state the population is growing.
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
Now, this can be read in any manner. But, the WORDS I see is "More Customers" ...but, we can also see Funcom is being "careful" here, and did NOT use the word "Subscriber"
But, guess what? We are ALL making assumptions like Noggy1980 has multiple times in this thread. We cannot assume based on a specific set of words what this all means..and Funcom wins again in making everyone speculate, thus raising the discussion count, and arguments within this forum..
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008." Now, this can be read in any manner. But, the WORDS I see is "More Customers" ...but, we can also see Funcom is being "careful" here, and did NOT use the word "Subscriber" But, guess what? We are ALL making assumptions like Noggy1980 has multiple times in this thread. We cannot assume based on a specific set of words what this all means..and Funcom wins again in making everyone speculate, thus raising the discussion count, and arguments within this forum.. Hooray!
exactly FC are masters of the political say nothing in 1000 words type of statement. They could be counting free trials or turnover form the free trials as more customers while the loss from churn could be exceeding it. Quite frankly if they had more subs now than they did in 2008 I think they would made that a bullet in the financial report. But if they had, they would have had to back it up to the investors.
As for the question of the player base growing or not, I saw a norwegian article today that said this: "We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008. Activity among the players is significantly higher and longer subscription times. I can disprove speculation in the press that we lose customers" (Google translate)
IF they have more PAYING or CURRENT customers as of 31 Mar 09 than 31 Dec 08, why doesn't he release the numbers? You'll note he doesn't use the word "paying" or "current" customers. How many people reupped for a month during Q1 to check out 1.04 and server merges and didn't renew?
I have no doubt current subscribers are playing longer, because of all the people testing the changes on TL. I resubbed recently because I wanted to see what's changed in a year and specifically to see 1.05. Wiccana doesn't seem very active to me, but of course my highest toon is 51, so maybe the end game zones are hopping, or a big chunk of that server is on TL.
Every month the hardcore base of players that have been here since launch stay subscribed, their average subscription time is going up, and given the huge number of people that quit after their first month at launch, it would be hard for the average subscribed time NOT to go up.
Nothing in that report or what I've seen personally tells me the game is growing, but it doesn't appear to be bleeding out anymore, either. Assuming they don't totally screw the pooch with the live launch of 1.05 (certainly not a gimme), I think they'll be OK.
This was good news, numbers are better than expected. They made 7,7 million on Conan during Q1and had 40 million dollars cash in hand by the end of the March. They will step up marketing again, this smells like free playtime for veterans! Hope we will get some numbers from the launch in South Korea soon. Looks like the game made it over the critical point now.
(not going to stay and argue with the people that thinks these numbers equals bankruptcy, sorry)
I had edited my post to put the exact wording in and yes im refering to the stable comment. if it had grown it would say so, so as far as im concerned the words stable and constant were very similar. Solid and stable doesn't just mean we arn't losing, it means we arn't losing and we arn't gaining. If anything it means they losing but a very small ammount, if they were gaining but only a small ammount it would be a safe bet that it would say they are growing slightly. Presenting the information in the best way possible whilst remaining factual is pretty much what every company does.
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
Cheers
Slippery slope with the terminology here.
More new customers in Q1 2009 could just mean they had more success with getting new players in 2009 than 2008, but doesn't factor in overall retention rates. A company can sign up 5 new players every day, but if 10 older players quit every day it isn't growth.
The quote about significantly more customers is a little better, but still open to opinions, because of the manner it is worded. It is pretty easy to believe they got clobbered in Q4 when warhammer and lich king released, but recouped a few players the following quarter.
The revenue projections being lowered and conan being their chief revenue sources makes a much better reference than some translated interview. Funcom predicted lower revenue from Q4-08 to Q1-09 and they hit that mark. The same thing it looks like is going to happen in Q2-09.
The summer lull in gaming sales may cripple Funcom's ability to keep supporting AoC. If they have 120 people on staff making on average 50k/year, they have $6M in payroll they have to worry about. My prediction is subs will continue to dwindle away, and a skeleton crew will be supporting AoC come fall.
To the "financial experts" on this board, losing any amount of millions on a product launch like AoC is very bad thing. This year was supposed to the boom year for box sales and subscriptions, and their business plan probably had them paying off development costs for this game in a 2-3 year timespan. Since the 1st year was a disaster, they will either readjust their business plan to paying off development debt in a 4-5 year timeframe (if their creditors let them), or start axing people and put AoC on the back burner for good.
FC failed to capitalize on the "shiny new box" period in AoC, and are going to have to come up with some creative ways to create enough hype to get people back. Chances are the missed revenue post-launch will not be recoverable due to game quality and bad press. This will be nearly impossible since they have to do this in the summer, which is the gaming industries worst season for sales.
Litigator, I can be wrong, but it seems AOC players "defend" or talk about the game talking about its content, graphics, music, classes and atmosphere, usually people who are "against" the game are the ones talking about numbers.
...
All you have to do is check his 'posts', and you will see the agenda he is following. Everything he spouts is a mission in hatred towards Funcom.
I've seen on the main boards (the boards where only active subscribers can post) that AoC subscriptions (in their view) are up above 200,000, and might even be around 280,000. Now I have a question about this: 200,000 subscribers would mean, at $15 a pop, 9 million dollars in revenue for a quarter. Yet Funcom's revenue for Q1 isn't going to be anywhere near that. And that would assume that Funcom doesn't earn a SINGLE dollar from Anarchy Online or for any box sales. Lol. Of course with average subscriptions being more than $15, and because Funcom has other sources of revenue, subscription are far below this. If Funcom comes in above guidance you might convince me they have 150,000 subscriptions. Instead, don't be surprised when the number is closer to 6.5 million dollars US. And if that is the current population (instead of the retroactive population Jan-March) , when Funcom gives its guidance, how will supporters explain the guidance coming in a few million dollars short? This is simple math folks. Lit
Comments
I had edited my post to put the exact wording in and yes im refering to the stable comment. if it had grown it would say so, so as far as im concerned the words stable and constant were very similar.
Solid and stable doesn't just mean we arn't losing, it means we arn't losing and we arn't gaining. If anything it means they losing but a very small ammount, if they were gaining but only a small ammount it would be a safe bet that it would say they are growing slightly. Presenting the information in the best way possible whilst remaining factual is pretty much what every company does.
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
Cheers
So where do you get the part about modest subscriber growth? Al i saw was a statement on improved retention. If they were losing 50% of their subs last year every quarter a loss of only 10 or 20% could constitute improved retention. No where can I find where they state the population is growing.
I miss DAoC
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
Cheers
I edited in the exact wording, 2 mins after posting, and 20 minutes before you replied to me, I didn't intend to ignore anything, the post was written from memory, after posting I immediatly went to read the exact words and imeditatly added them as an edit, well before you replied. You can see that is true from the time on my edit and the time you replied to me.
It says a solid and stable subscriber base, yes that absolutly means no growth. If there was growth they would have said so, they commented on increased play time, increased length of subscription and an increase in the number of people trying the game, you honestly think that they wouldn't have said the total subs have increased if they had?
It was the translated article I was commenting on, it doesn't tie in with the report, that either means he was talking about the increase in new people not total subs and thus it was a poorly worded or misleading comment or it was badly translated.
Edit- The simple fact of the matter is the ammount of money coming in dropped, and they predict that next report the ammount of money coming in will have droped even more. No matter how you try to spin it that rules out growth.
So where do you get the part about modest subscriber growth? Al i saw was a statement on improved retention. If they were losing 50% of their subs last year every quarter a loss of only 10 or 20% could constitute improved retention. No where can I find where they state the population is growing.
Again look at the translated article...here
Translated
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
Now, this can be read in any manner. But, the WORDS I see is "More Customers" ...but, we can also see Funcom is being "careful" here, and did NOT use the word "Subscriber"
But, guess what? We are ALL making assumptions like Noggy1980 has multiple times in this thread. We cannot assume based on a specific set of words what this all means..and Funcom wins again in making everyone speculate, thus raising the discussion count, and arguments within this forum..
Hooray!
exactly FC are masters of the political say nothing in 1000 words type of statement. They could be counting free trials or turnover form the free trials as more customers while the loss from churn could be exceeding it. Quite frankly if they had more subs now than they did in 2008 I think they would made that a bullet in the financial report. But if they had, they would have had to back it up to the investors.
The article is just feel good spin, nothing more
I miss DAoC
IF they have more PAYING or CURRENT customers as of 31 Mar 09 than 31 Dec 08, why doesn't he release the numbers? You'll note he doesn't use the word "paying" or "current" customers. How many people reupped for a month during Q1 to check out 1.04 and server merges and didn't renew?
I have no doubt current subscribers are playing longer, because of all the people testing the changes on TL. I resubbed recently because I wanted to see what's changed in a year and specifically to see 1.05. Wiccana doesn't seem very active to me, but of course my highest toon is 51, so maybe the end game zones are hopping, or a big chunk of that server is on TL.
Every month the hardcore base of players that have been here since launch stay subscribed, their average subscription time is going up, and given the huge number of people that quit after their first month at launch, it would be hard for the average subscribed time NOT to go up.
Nothing in that report or what I've seen personally tells me the game is growing, but it doesn't appear to be bleeding out anymore, either. Assuming they don't totally screw the pooch with the live launch of 1.05 (certainly not a gimme), I think they'll be OK.
This was good news, numbers are better than expected. They made 7,7 million on Conan during Q1and had 40 million dollars cash in hand by the end of the March. They will step up marketing again, this smells like free playtime for veterans!
Hope we will get some numbers from the launch in South Korea soon. Looks like the game made it over the critical point now.
(not going to stay and argue with the people that thinks these numbers equals bankruptcy, sorry)
But, it strikes me you are using the words for your own context. You intended to ignore the "This combined with an increase in new customers in Q1 2009.." line make you think to use the words "stable" and make it mean "No Growth"?
And then if we look at the translated article from earlier..it states
"We have significantly more customers in the first quarter than we had in the fourth quarter of 2008."
That means growth to me. Stable or Solid can mean "Hey guys, this growth makes the company and the game more stable, so we will not close"..at least that is how I decipher it.
Nothing indicates flatline, no matter how you wish to paint it as such.
Cheers
Slippery slope with the terminology here.
More new customers in Q1 2009 could just mean they had more success with getting new players in 2009 than 2008, but doesn't factor in overall retention rates. A company can sign up 5 new players every day, but if 10 older players quit every day it isn't growth.
The quote about significantly more customers is a little better, but still open to opinions, because of the manner it is worded. It is pretty easy to believe they got clobbered in Q4 when warhammer and lich king released, but recouped a few players the following quarter.
The revenue projections being lowered and conan being their chief revenue sources makes a much better reference than some translated interview. Funcom predicted lower revenue from Q4-08 to Q1-09 and they hit that mark. The same thing it looks like is going to happen in Q2-09.
To me it sounds like the game has stabilized.
The summer lull in gaming sales may cripple Funcom's ability to keep supporting AoC. If they have 120 people on staff making on average 50k/year, they have $6M in payroll they have to worry about. My prediction is subs will continue to dwindle away, and a skeleton crew will be supporting AoC come fall.
To the "financial experts" on this board, losing any amount of millions on a product launch like AoC is very bad thing. This year was supposed to the boom year for box sales and subscriptions, and their business plan probably had them paying off development costs for this game in a 2-3 year timespan. Since the 1st year was a disaster, they will either readjust their business plan to paying off development debt in a 4-5 year timeframe (if their creditors let them), or start axing people and put AoC on the back burner for good.
FC failed to capitalize on the "shiny new box" period in AoC, and are going to have to come up with some creative ways to create enough hype to get people back. Chances are the missed revenue post-launch will not be recoverable due to game quality and bad press. This will be nearly impossible since they have to do this in the summer, which is the gaming industries worst season for sales.
This is good news and good for AoC.
All you have to do is check his 'posts', and you will see the agenda he is following. Everything he spouts is a mission in hatred towards Funcom.
On that basis, his 'opinion' is irrelevant.
Link please, or this is another meaningless post.