My flame proofing holds intact... I read every response, and I honestly dont think some of the responders even read my post.
I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.. The Vanguard, AoC, WAR era of MMOs has passed. The newer upcoming releases that are on the very near horizon seemed to have learned from the mistakes of the last generation of self acclaimed WOW killers.
I also stated I think WOW will be around for years to come. I just think like EQ1 it has had its time at the top, and all good things come to an end. I take DOOM for example it reigned supreme for so long as an FPS... However its time came and went. And well WOW has alot of competition out there and the competition is getting better not worse. Even after reading so many responses I still believe the decline of WOW is imminent, and it will happen SOONER not LATER.
One last thing Alot of people state ohh none of the games coming out has the recognizable IP that warcraft had.. or has. However. WOW did do something. IT brought ALOT of people into the MMO world. And once a person is in that world they hear the goings on of other games in the same genre. Word of mouth is a big thing. When a new game launches that is very smooth running and very polished.. People playing MMOs are most likely going to hear about it and might decide to try it for themselves.
Last few years there was alot of hype of upcoming games that launched to early with to many bugs. That is why they couldnt compete with WOW.
My flame proofing holds intact... I read every response, and I honestly dont think some of the responders even read my post. I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.. The Vanguard, AoC, WAR era of MMOs has passed. The newer upcoming releases that are on the very near horizon seemed to have learned from the mistakes of the last generation of self acclaimed WOW killers. I also stated I think WOW will be around for years to come. I just think like EQ1 it has had its time at the top, and all good things come to an end. I take DOOM for example it reigned supreme for so long as an FPS... However its time came and went. And well WOW has alot of competition out there and the competition is getting better not worse. Even after reading so many responses I still believe the decline of WOW is imminent, and it will happen SOONER not LATER. One last thing Alot of people state ohh none of the games coming out has the recognizable IP that warcraft had.. or has. However. WOW did do something. IT brought ALOT of people into the MMO world. And once a person is in that world they hear the goings on of other games in the same genre. Word of mouth is a big thing. When a new game launches that is very smooth running and very polished.. People playing MMOs are most likely going to hear about it and might decide to try it for themselves. Last few years there was alot of hype of upcoming games that launched to early with to many bugs. That is why they couldnt compete with WOW.
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.
Wow, and this blinding revelation took you by surprise, eh? "One day" a game will emerge from the pack that has "a very good chance of having more subscriptions". Astonishing. You should play the stock markets.
I think WoW has already hit its lowest point, and after Blizzcon, that decline will soon become a resurgence of old players coming back to the game with the promise of now meaningful PvP, and the world they once loved being revamped. Blizzard had trouble in China, and WotlK wasn't the greatest expansion, but those dark times are behind, and myself and millions of other players look forward to Icecrown Citadel and the new expansion.
I can agree with this. All credible signs point to WoW actually declining slightly in subs since WoTLK was launched, and Cataclysm seems, to me, to be targeted squarely at former WoW players, not current ones or even potential ones that haven't played MMOs before, which is a pretty substantial change from prior expansions.
I know myself and several other people who swore it'd be a cold day in hell before we resubbed to WoW are actually planning on coming back for this, how many will stay though remains to be seen.
who really cares. You should probably know WoW peaks and troughs anyway, and being from the same school of battle.net it will have a continuuing appeal for sometime yet. This mmo forum isn't about which mmo is 'king', only the WoW fanbois care about that with their delicate prides. This mmo forum is about the appreciation and enjoyment of mmos. And the choice of good quality titles is going to widen over the years, all offering different experiences. And that, is more important than which mmo has the most subs.
What I dont get is where are the figures for WoW's 11 million verified? I mean as a WoW player I see people all over the place but not to the tune of 11 million. Yes they hold numerous servers but I seriously doubt 11 million whether it be so called single player or multi accounts, it is BS. WoW will be the king for a long time but what about some of the FTP games, i saw one stating 50 million players, why do we get to believe Wow holds 11 million but reject the fact that others can have that amount or more? I actually strolled over to the so called 50 million game and i did see a ton of players, and I mean a ton- problem id most are snot nose kids but whether its a snot nose kid or a cane toting grandpa its still a player. So until the 11 million are verified so way other than Blizz throwing out the number and everyone drinking the coolaid, i mean listening to them then i say sure there are MMOs that have players equal or more than WoW, but still WoW will regin.
Wow this is a REALLY interesting topic! I've never seen anything like it before on these forums. Its good to know that I can experience the same level of excitement again for years to come as all of these duplicate threads keep getting churned out. Where would we all be without a constant stream of "WoW will be dead soon" threads?
Well done OP for making a really interesting and clever prediction that no-one else has ever thought of before. Keep up the good work!
Seriously, unless you play WoW what does it matter to you if it fails? What do you care if other people enjoy it and are having fun? I don't play it anymore but it was (it still is) a great game for many people.
WoW servers won't close anytime soon. Blizz can loose 200-400k and still pull in great profits so my guess is we won't see servers closing, if at all, for many years to come.
What I dont get is where are the figures for WoW's 11 million verified? I mean as a WoW player I see people all over the place but not to the tune of 11 million. Yes they hold numerous servers but I seriously doubt 11 million whether it be so called single player or multi accounts, it is BS. WoW will be the king for a long time but what about some of the FTP games, i saw one stating 50 million players, why do we get to believe Wow holds 11 million but reject the fact that others can have that amount or more? I actually strolled over to the so called 50 million game and i did see a ton of players, and I mean a ton- problem id most are snot nose kids but whether its a snot nose kid or a cane toting grandpa its still a player. So until the 11 million are verified so way other than Blizz throwing out the number and everyone drinking the coolaid, i mean listening to them then i say sure there are MMOs that have players equal or more than WoW, but still WoW will regin.
You won't ever see that many people.
WoW's population is split; there's around 5.5 million in China (where they don't pay for subscription like the rest of us); and there is about 3 million in NA and 2.5 million on EU servers which are further divided by the number of active servers as well as being split into two factions and again by level differences.
All told, the average server is reckoned to have about 20,000 players.
Playing: EVE, Final Fantasy 13, Uncharted 2, Need for Speed: Shift
My flame proofing holds intact... I read every response, and I honestly dont think some of the responders even read my post. I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.. The Vanguard, AoC, WAR era of MMOs has passed. The newer upcoming releases that are on the very near horizon seemed to have learned from the mistakes of the last generation of self acclaimed WOW killers. I also stated I think WOW will be around for years to come. I just think like EQ1 it has had its time at the top, and all good things come to an end. I take DOOM for example it reigned supreme for so long as an FPS... However its time came and went. And well WOW has alot of competition out there and the competition is getting better not worse. Even after reading so many responses I still believe the decline of WOW is imminent, and it will happen SOONER not LATER. One last thing Alot of people state ohh none of the games coming out has the recognizable IP that warcraft had.. or has. However. WOW did do something. IT brought ALOT of people into the MMO world. And once a person is in that world they hear the goings on of other games in the same genre. Word of mouth is a big thing. When a new game launches that is very smooth running and very polished.. People playing MMOs are most likely going to hear about it and might decide to try it for themselves. Last few years there was alot of hype of upcoming games that launched to early with to many bugs. That is why they couldnt compete with WOW.
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
Doom had no subscription whatsoever....
Also what hes trying to say with that is that no game stays on top forever.
Actually I did a search of all the realmstats on wow a few months after tbc was launched and they were down considerably from tbc launch...people were leaving in droves.
I think we'll see something similar for the new expansion, a hell of a lot more QQ'ing going on about the radical new changes they are gonna implement.
Personally I think although it could well be an awesome expansion, they will lose a lot of the long term players.
Having zero competition has made blizzard a lazy, bloated, beast of a firm, it's caused massive stagnation of the market. In essence it really needs a major threat to it's supremacy.
Ever hear of the saying to much of a good thing makes it not so good? Well I have a prediction and that is that SOON WOWs decline will start to happen. For the last few years people have debated about the WOW killer games. This game is going to kill WOW and that game is going to kill WOW. Declining I think would be a more appropriate term to use. Killing WOW would mean turning off all the servers, and lets face it we know thats not going to happen anytime in the near future. However that does not mean the games decline is not coming and not coming soon. Now saying this I do not really think that another MMO is ever going to reach the amazing level of success that World of Warcraft has been able to achieve but I do believe personally that within the next 1 to 2 years a game could and most likely will come along that will knock WOW out of its number one spot. Lets face it, all good things come to an end, and WOW has definately reached its peak. You can go on any forum for anygame or fansite anywhere and people are looking for something new.. Something different. In the last few years we have seen several games come out with hopes of toppling the giant that World of Warcraft has become. But They have been rushed to press causing for high promises that could not be fufilled and also very bug ridden. I myself played in several of the Betas in the last few years. Vanguard... and WAR were 2 such Betas that I partook in Both claimed to be WOW killers. I didnt see it happening. As I watched both games launch with so much hype when I knew neither games were really even ready to be launched. However some of the newer games that are upcoming.. Well I think the developers are learning from the mistakes of the past. I look at the current games I have been partaking in beta. Both Aion and Champions... Both games regardless of what some people say, are just at an amazing level of completion. They run smooth, seem to have done alot to get the content in the game before launch, and all around are more polished then what we have seen in the last series of games to launch IE the Vanguard to WAR era.. including games such as AoC. At one time EQ1 was the reigning champion of MMOs... Sure Lineage had more subscriptions but the world then was more seperated when it came to gaming. But here in the West EQ1 was king, and stayed that way for a good many years. But people eventually grew tired of it and wanted something new. Thats when WOW arrived a game that was well polished ran good and was exiting. It downed the king. They didnt kill it. Heck EQ1 still has more subscriptions than EQ2..However it doesnt sit on top anymore. WOW is coming to that point... and I believe sooner than later. Especially with what I am seeing coming down the road. I will not say anyone game is going to do it. However people are leaving WOW.. and yes I realize new people still will log in or people will return. But the game has reached its saturation point. Now there really is only one way for it to go and that is down. THe new line up of games in the next year to 2 years I feel will be responsible for that. Anyway I am done with my rant. Just figured I would give my prediction. I could be wrong. However I dont think I will be.
oh yet another "WoW will die thread" very instresting stuff *laughs*
Also what hes trying to say with that is that no game stays on top forever.
Somewhat off-topic, but if you get Doom Legacy and plug in your original DOOM WAD file, it actually looks really good. And plays really good. Kind of scary to think how little first person shooters have evolved when you go back and play the granddaddy of them all on a modern engine and it's not that much different than what's coming out today.
My flame proofing holds intact... I read every response, and I honestly dont think some of the responders even read my post. I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.. The Vanguard, AoC, WAR era of MMOs has passed. The newer upcoming releases that are on the very near horizon seemed to have learned from the mistakes of the last generation of self acclaimed WOW killers. I also stated I think WOW will be around for years to come. I just think like EQ1 it has had its time at the top, and all good things come to an end. I take DOOM for example it reigned supreme for so long as an FPS... However its time came and went. And well WOW has alot of competition out there and the competition is getting better not worse. Even after reading so many responses I still believe the decline of WOW is imminent, and it will happen SOONER not LATER. One last thing Alot of people state ohh none of the games coming out has the recognizable IP that warcraft had.. or has. However. WOW did do something. IT brought ALOT of people into the MMO world. And once a person is in that world they hear the goings on of other games in the same genre. Word of mouth is a big thing. When a new game launches that is very smooth running and very polished.. People playing MMOs are most likely going to hear about it and might decide to try it for themselves. Last few years there was alot of hype of upcoming games that launched to early with to many bugs. That is why they couldnt compete with WOW.
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
Doom had no subscription whatsoever....
Also what hes trying to say with that is that no game stays on top forever.
Doom had no subscribtions? oh, really sherlock?
Yes it's very clear what he is trying to say and it's pretty obvious no game is going to stay on top forever. But there is nothing even suggesting that WoW is going to decline anytime soon.
Silverthorn8:
Actually I did a search of all the realmstats on wow a few months after tbc was launched and they were down considerably from tbc launch...people were leaving in droves.
I think we'll see something similar for the new expansion, a hell of a lot more QQ'ing going on about the radical new changes they are gonna implement.
Personally I think although it could well be an awesome expansion, they will lose a lot of the long term players.
Having zero competition has made blizzard a lazy, bloated, beast of a firm, it's caused massive stagnation of the market. In essence it really needs a major threat to it's supremacy.
It's very doubtful people were leaving in droves because after the release of the Burning Crusade, subscribtion numbers continued to increase, not decline.
If history is a marker, EQ laster about 5 years as top dog with games coming and going and not making a dent in the overall top dogs position. Bearing in mind EQ had about 500,000 subs at its peak but other games counted their subs in the 10,000s at the time, this was back in the day though when the internet itself wasn't as prevalent.
Then along came WoW and totally killed EQ.
Problem is when you looked at EQ 5 years on, it looked dated, it looked old, graphically speaking. WoW doesn't look old, in fact you compare it with games coming out today and its graphics easily hold up. You see games released today that have the same graphics as WoW, there has been no leap forward.
Until there comes a game that actually takes that extra step forward, I can't see WoW being killed off, even in the long run with dribs and drabs as the OP suggested. It just isn't going to happen until something better steps up with as much mass appeal.
Problem for other games now is they can only just manage to steal away a small section of the WoW gaming fraternity. Champions will take some, but not many, Aion will take some, but not many...too reliant on PvP etc etc etc and you list the games and the small parts of the community they can appeal to. People will always return to WoW because of its size and if Aion takes 10% of the players, that means that out of every 10 friends, only one of them will be playing Aion, the other 9 will still be playing WoW and people like to play with friends and within a few months will return to WoW.
The reason EQ died was that entire guilds left EQ and went to WoW as guilds.....not only did a few players go, but all their friends went too. People that left EQ never went back to EQ. People that leave WoW invariably go back to WoW.
If history is a marker, EQ laster about 5 years as top dog with games coming and going and not making a dent in the overall top dogs position. Bearing in mind EQ had about 500,000 subs at its peak but other games counted their subs in the 10,000s at the time, this was back in the day though when the internet itself wasn't as prevalent.
Then along came WoW and totally killed EQ.
Problem is when you looked at EQ 5 years on, it looked dated, it looked old, graphically speaking. WoW doesn't look old, in fact you compare it with games coming out today and its graphics easily hold up. You see games released today that have the same graphics as WoW, there has been no leap forward.
Until there comes a game that actually takes that extra step forward, I can't see WoW being killed off, even in the long run with dribs and drabs as the OP suggested. It just isn't going to happen until something better steps up with as much mass appeal.
Problem for other games now is they can only just manage to steal away a small section of the WoW gaming fraternity. Champions will take some, but not many, Aion will take some, but not many...too reliant on PvP etc etc etc and you list the games and the small parts of the community they can appeal to. People will always return to WoW because of its size and if Aion takes 10% of the players, that means that out of every 10 friends, only one of them will be playing Aion, the other 9 will still be playing WoW and people like to play with friends and within a few months will return to WoW.
The reason EQ died was that entire guilds left EQ and went to WoW as guilds.....not only did a few players go, but all their friends went too. People that left EQ never went back to EQ. People that leave WoW invariably go back to WoW.
No they didn't. Everquest reached its peak of 550k subscribers somewhere in 2004. Final Fantasy XI was also around the 500k subscribers mark. Dark Age of Camelot had around 250k subscribribers, City of Heroes had around 170k subscribers and Ultima Online still had over 200k subscribers.
Lineage 2 had over a million and Lineage 1 had over 3 million. Ragnarok Online probably also reached over a million subscribers by then.
The reason EQ died was that entire guilds left EQ and went to WoW as guilds.....not only did a few players go, but all their friends went too. People that left EQ never went back to EQ. People that leave WoW invariably go back to WoW.
People that left EQ went on to make WoW too. So does that mean in 10 years time we will see an MMO greater than WoW from the players of WoW. Still no news on what Blizzards next-gen MMO is, so maybe?!
I dont think WoW subs gonna decline. Because for the first time they made really good expansion so i think blizzard realize they need to invest more money in that game instead of just letting em go. WoW is a MMO, i don't like it but i played it a lot of time. But WoW still today have a lot of potential
Lmao ... after almost 5 years ...the doomsayers haven't learned anything. Just go back to your cave cause wow ain't going anywhere.Aion will be like all other cookie cutter mmos launched these past years. The only real game to take a noticeable chunk of wow players will be Blizzard's unanounced mmorg.
I dont think WoW subs gonna decline. Because for the first time they made really good expansion so i think blizzard realize they need to invest more money in that game instead of just letting em go. WoW is a MMO, i don't like it but i played it a lot of time. But WoW still today have a lot of potential
WoW's potential is, at this point in its lifecycle, pretty limited. They're going to have larger and larger liberties with the Warcraft canon and do some crazy stuff to truly keep it that interesting.
But no, for the forseeable future, WoW's numbers won't decline. Its not because of WoW's success though -- It's that there's no meaningful competition anywhere at this point.
It took a LOT of above-average MMOs a long time to decrease the status of Everquest until the time WoW was released. By then you had not just EQ to play, but EQ2, FFXI, Lineage and L2, FFXI, SWG was still strong, EVE was upcoming, City of Heroes was surviving... there were a good deal of notable alternatives.
Today, what do you have other than WoW? EQ2's decent but very obscure, but then there's... LOTRO, EVE, uh... AoC and WAR, which WoW people fled TO, then fled FROM when they were disappointed. Darkf-- er, nevermind that one.
Oh yeah, there's FreeRealms! :>
There's a distinct lack of alternatives, and no one game is going to suck a large chunk of subscribers away from WoW. Aion, if it defies the odds and does very well, will still only serve as another alternative. Champions Online and Mortal Online are both set to fail if you believe the chatter. CitiesXL is an MMO but not in the same breath as your typical other MMOs, and will also be very niche.
I'd say WoW's got nothing to worry about at least for the next three years -- or however long it takes to come out with its next MMO.
If history is a marker, EQ laster about 5 years as top dog with games coming and going and not making a dent in the overall top dogs position. Bearing in mind EQ had about 500,000 subs at its peak but other games counted their subs in the 10,000s at the time, this was back in the day though when the internet itself wasn't as prevalent.
Then along came WoW and totally killed EQ.
Problem is when you looked at EQ 5 years on, it looked dated, it looked old, graphically speaking. WoW doesn't look old, in fact you compare it with games coming out today and its graphics easily hold up. You see games released today that have the same graphics as WoW, there has been no leap forward.
Until there comes a game that actually takes that extra step forward, I can't see WoW being killed off, even in the long run with dribs and drabs as the OP suggested. It just isn't going to happen until something better steps up with as much mass appeal.
Problem for other games now is they can only just manage to steal away a small section of the WoW gaming fraternity. Champions will take some, but not many, Aion will take some, but not many...too reliant on PvP etc etc etc and you list the games and the small parts of the community they can appeal to. People will always return to WoW because of its size and if Aion takes 10% of the players, that means that out of every 10 friends, only one of them will be playing Aion, the other 9 will still be playing WoW and people like to play with friends and within a few months will return to WoW.
The reason EQ died was that entire guilds left EQ and went to WoW as guilds.....not only did a few players go, but all their friends went too. People that left EQ never went back to EQ. People that leave WoW invariably go back to WoW.
No they didn't. Everquest reached its peak of 550k subscribers somewhere in 2004. Final Fantasy XI was also around the 500k subscribers mark. Dark Age of Camelot had around 250k subscribribers, City of Heroes had around 170k subscribers and Ultima Online still had over 200k subscribers.
Lineage 2 had over a million and Lineage 1 had over 3 million. Ragnarok Online probably also reached over a million subscribers by then.
I see no evidence in the subscriber numbers of Everquest or any of the other mmorpgs you mention apart from people pulling numbers outta their head. Everquest might have nevr had 500k subs as far as we know cause SOE don't give out numbers. For every mmorpg I seem to hear the same figure of 200-300k and yet I see no evidence of any of the mmorpgs having these numbers. Just a guy running a website called mmochart where he pulled numbers outta his arse which made these numbers stick.
Who cares whether WoW lives or dies, thrives or turns turtle?
If studios build a good, well balanced, focused MMO, people will play it and it will be a success. The idea of "stealing" or "inheriting" wow's sub base is largely illusory IMO. Most of those people were'nt MMO players before WoW and most of them wont be after WoW is gone.
Comments
My flame proofing holds intact... I read every response, and I honestly dont think some of the responders even read my post.
I never said ONE game will take WOW down. I said in the next year to 2 years a collective of games will knock it down to a spot where one game has a VERY GOOD chance of actually having more subscriptions.. The Vanguard, AoC, WAR era of MMOs has passed. The newer upcoming releases that are on the very near horizon seemed to have learned from the mistakes of the last generation of self acclaimed WOW killers.
I also stated I think WOW will be around for years to come. I just think like EQ1 it has had its time at the top, and all good things come to an end. I take DOOM for example it reigned supreme for so long as an FPS... However its time came and went. And well WOW has alot of competition out there and the competition is getting better not worse. Even after reading so many responses I still believe the decline of WOW is imminent, and it will happen SOONER not LATER.
One last thing Alot of people state ohh none of the games coming out has the recognizable IP that warcraft had.. or has. However. WOW did do something. IT brought ALOT of people into the MMO world. And once a person is in that world they hear the goings on of other games in the same genre. Word of mouth is a big thing. When a new game launches that is very smooth running and very polished.. People playing MMOs are most likely going to hear about it and might decide to try it for themselves.
Last few years there was alot of hype of upcoming games that launched to early with to many bugs. That is why they couldnt compete with WOW.
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
Wow, and this blinding revelation took you by surprise, eh? "One day" a game will emerge from the pack that has "a very good chance of having more subscriptions". Astonishing. You should play the stock markets.
I can agree with this. All credible signs point to WoW actually declining slightly in subs since WoTLK was launched, and Cataclysm seems, to me, to be targeted squarely at former WoW players, not current ones or even potential ones that haven't played MMOs before, which is a pretty substantial change from prior expansions.
I know myself and several other people who swore it'd be a cold day in hell before we resubbed to WoW are actually planning on coming back for this, how many will stay though remains to be seen.
who really cares. You should probably know WoW peaks and troughs anyway, and being from the same school of battle.net it will have a continuuing appeal for sometime yet. This mmo forum isn't about which mmo is 'king', only the WoW fanbois care about that with their delicate prides. This mmo forum is about the appreciation and enjoyment of mmos. And the choice of good quality titles is going to widen over the years, all offering different experiences. And that, is more important than which mmo has the most subs.
What I dont get is where are the figures for WoW's 11 million verified? I mean as a WoW player I see people all over the place but not to the tune of 11 million. Yes they hold numerous servers but I seriously doubt 11 million whether it be so called single player or multi accounts, it is BS. WoW will be the king for a long time but what about some of the FTP games, i saw one stating 50 million players, why do we get to believe Wow holds 11 million but reject the fact that others can have that amount or more? I actually strolled over to the so called 50 million game and i did see a ton of players, and I mean a ton- problem id most are snot nose kids but whether its a snot nose kid or a cane toting grandpa its still a player. So until the 11 million are verified so way other than Blizz throwing out the number and everyone drinking the coolaid, i mean listening to them then i say sure there are MMOs that have players equal or more than WoW, but still WoW will regin.
Wow this is a REALLY interesting topic! I've never seen anything like it before on these forums. Its good to know that I can experience the same level of excitement again for years to come as all of these duplicate threads keep getting churned out. Where would we all be without a constant stream of "WoW will be dead soon" threads?
Well done OP for making a really interesting and clever prediction that no-one else has ever thought of before. Keep up the good work!
To OP,
Seriously, unless you play WoW what does it matter to you if it fails? What do you care if other people enjoy it and are having fun? I don't play it anymore but it was (it still is) a great game for many people.
WoW servers won't close anytime soon. Blizz can loose 200-400k and still pull in great profits so my guess is we won't see servers closing, if at all, for many years to come.
"I play Tera for the gameplay"
You won't ever see that many people.
WoW's population is split; there's around 5.5 million in China (where they don't pay for subscription like the rest of us); and there is about 3 million in NA and 2.5 million on EU servers which are further divided by the number of active servers as well as being split into two factions and again by level differences.
All told, the average server is reckoned to have about 20,000 players.
Playing: EVE, Final Fantasy 13, Uncharted 2, Need for Speed: Shift
If Ultima Online and Everquest can last this long (11+ years), expect World of Warcraft to last even longer.
Basically the only way WoW will be closed is if Blizzard decides they don't want to support it anymore. I highly don't see that happening.
Total time played: 9125 Days, 21 Hours, 29 Minutes, 27 Seconds
Time played this level: 39 Days, 1 Hour, 24 Minutes, 5 Seconds
WoW will go for another 15 years yet.
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
Doom had no subscription whatsoever....
Also what hes trying to say with that is that no game stays on top forever.
Actually I did a search of all the realmstats on wow a few months after tbc was launched and they were down considerably from tbc launch...people were leaving in droves.
I think we'll see something similar for the new expansion, a hell of a lot more QQ'ing going on about the radical new changes they are gonna implement.
Personally I think although it could well be an awesome expansion, they will lose a lot of the long term players.
Having zero competition has made blizzard a lazy, bloated, beast of a firm, it's caused massive stagnation of the market. In essence it really needs a major threat to it's supremacy.
oh yet another "WoW will die thread" very instresting stuff *laughs*
my response is clear:
Somewhat off-topic, but if you get Doom Legacy and plug in your original DOOM WAD file, it actually looks really good. And plays really good. Kind of scary to think how little first person shooters have evolved when you go back and play the granddaddy of them all on a modern engine and it's not that much different than what's coming out today.
its already happening. me and lots of guildmates/RL friends have already quit
You don't seem to realise that you're using the exact same arguments we have been hearing for 5 years now. "They learned from their mistakes" yeah well so did the mmorpgs before that. You pretend as if no new mmorpg has been launched since the release of WoW besides Vanguard, WAR and Age of Conan.
Besides who says that these new unreleased games will be any different? Because they look good pre-release? So did WAR and Age of Conan. Champions certainly isn't going to pull away any noticable numbers, thats for sure.
Doom is a poor example. Doom isn't a game that is constantly evolving like an MMORPG such as WoW does. I'm also pretty sure Doom did not have 11 million subscribers.
Doom had no subscription whatsoever....
Also what hes trying to say with that is that no game stays on top forever.
Doom had no subscribtions? oh, really sherlock?
Yes it's very clear what he is trying to say and it's pretty obvious no game is going to stay on top forever. But there is nothing even suggesting that WoW is going to decline anytime soon.
Silverthorn8:
Actually I did a search of all the realmstats on wow a few months after tbc was launched and they were down considerably from tbc launch...people were leaving in droves.
I think we'll see something similar for the new expansion, a hell of a lot more QQ'ing going on about the radical new changes they are gonna implement.
Personally I think although it could well be an awesome expansion, they will lose a lot of the long term players.
Having zero competition has made blizzard a lazy, bloated, beast of a firm, it's caused massive stagnation of the market. In essence it really needs a major threat to it's supremacy.
It's very doubtful people were leaving in droves because after the release of the Burning Crusade, subscribtion numbers continued to increase, not decline.
If history is a marker, EQ laster about 5 years as top dog with games coming and going and not making a dent in the overall top dogs position. Bearing in mind EQ had about 500,000 subs at its peak but other games counted their subs in the 10,000s at the time, this was back in the day though when the internet itself wasn't as prevalent.
Then along came WoW and totally killed EQ.
Problem is when you looked at EQ 5 years on, it looked dated, it looked old, graphically speaking. WoW doesn't look old, in fact you compare it with games coming out today and its graphics easily hold up. You see games released today that have the same graphics as WoW, there has been no leap forward.
Until there comes a game that actually takes that extra step forward, I can't see WoW being killed off, even in the long run with dribs and drabs as the OP suggested. It just isn't going to happen until something better steps up with as much mass appeal.
Problem for other games now is they can only just manage to steal away a small section of the WoW gaming fraternity. Champions will take some, but not many, Aion will take some, but not many...too reliant on PvP etc etc etc and you list the games and the small parts of the community they can appeal to. People will always return to WoW because of its size and if Aion takes 10% of the players, that means that out of every 10 friends, only one of them will be playing Aion, the other 9 will still be playing WoW and people like to play with friends and within a few months will return to WoW.
The reason EQ died was that entire guilds left EQ and went to WoW as guilds.....not only did a few players go, but all their friends went too. People that left EQ never went back to EQ. People that leave WoW invariably go back to WoW.
No they didn't. Everquest reached its peak of 550k subscribers somewhere in 2004. Final Fantasy XI was also around the 500k subscribers mark. Dark Age of Camelot had around 250k subscribribers, City of Heroes had around 170k subscribers and Ultima Online still had over 200k subscribers.
Lineage 2 had over a million and Lineage 1 had over 3 million. Ragnarok Online probably also reached over a million subscribers by then.
People that left EQ went on to make WoW too. So does that mean in 10 years time we will see an MMO greater than WoW from the players of WoW. Still no news on what Blizzards next-gen MMO is, so maybe?!
I dont think WoW subs gonna decline. Because for the first time they made really good expansion so i think blizzard realize they need to invest more money in that game instead of just letting em go. WoW is a MMO, i don't like it but i played it a lot of time. But WoW still today have a lot of potential
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Lmao ... after almost 5 years ...the doomsayers haven't learned anything. Just go back to your cave cause wow ain't going anywhere.Aion will be like all other cookie cutter mmos launched these past years. The only real game to take a noticeable chunk of wow players will be Blizzard's unanounced mmorg.
WoW's potential is, at this point in its lifecycle, pretty limited. They're going to have larger and larger liberties with the Warcraft canon and do some crazy stuff to truly keep it that interesting.
But no, for the forseeable future, WoW's numbers won't decline. Its not because of WoW's success though -- It's that there's no meaningful competition anywhere at this point.
It took a LOT of above-average MMOs a long time to decrease the status of Everquest until the time WoW was released. By then you had not just EQ to play, but EQ2, FFXI, Lineage and L2, FFXI, SWG was still strong, EVE was upcoming, City of Heroes was surviving... there were a good deal of notable alternatives.
Today, what do you have other than WoW? EQ2's decent but very obscure, but then there's... LOTRO, EVE, uh... AoC and WAR, which WoW people fled TO, then fled FROM when they were disappointed. Darkf-- er, nevermind that one.
Oh yeah, there's FreeRealms! :>
There's a distinct lack of alternatives, and no one game is going to suck a large chunk of subscribers away from WoW. Aion, if it defies the odds and does very well, will still only serve as another alternative. Champions Online and Mortal Online are both set to fail if you believe the chatter. CitiesXL is an MMO but not in the same breath as your typical other MMOs, and will also be very niche.
I'd say WoW's got nothing to worry about at least for the next three years -- or however long it takes to come out with its next MMO.
No they didn't. Everquest reached its peak of 550k subscribers somewhere in 2004. Final Fantasy XI was also around the 500k subscribers mark. Dark Age of Camelot had around 250k subscribribers, City of Heroes had around 170k subscribers and Ultima Online still had over 200k subscribers.
Lineage 2 had over a million and Lineage 1 had over 3 million. Ragnarok Online probably also reached over a million subscribers by then.
I see no evidence in the subscriber numbers of Everquest or any of the other mmorpgs you mention apart from people pulling numbers outta their head. Everquest might have nevr had 500k subs as far as we know cause SOE don't give out numbers. For every mmorpg I seem to hear the same figure of 200-300k and yet I see no evidence of any of the mmorpgs having these numbers. Just a guy running a website called mmochart where he pulled numbers outta his arse which made these numbers stick.
Who cares whether WoW lives or dies, thrives or turns turtle?
If studios build a good, well balanced, focused MMO, people will play it and it will be a success. The idea of "stealing" or "inheriting" wow's sub base is largely illusory IMO. Most of those people were'nt MMO players before WoW and most of them wont be after WoW is gone.
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