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Purchasing online is a mistake
JulianDracos
Member UncommonPosts: 1,528
This is the only game I am looking forward to this year, but the decision to make it an online release at least for the first few months is making me rethink my interest.
1. Depending on how it is distributed online I could end up spending a lot of time downloading it. There are bottlenecks on the net and often dowloads are limited by the server I am getting it from. I would much rather by the game in a store and install it in 5 minutes and spend another 5 minutes patching that waiting forever for a download.
2. It will limit the game to only those with broadband connections. This limits the market for the game.
3. It gives the image like SoR did that it is not a good enough game to get a publisher. SoR was going to do an online release but after its horrible beta it was delayed and they finally got a publisher. SoR will never be a big game which is good because it sucks. If DnL is supposed to be so huge you are going to need a lot of players on it. Limiting the number of players and getting the reputation of being an amatuer will not give the game a good reputation.
4. Word of mouth is not good enough to sell this game. You need in store attention. I have talked to many people in real life about Dark and Light. They think it sounds really interesting and they want to play it. However, prior to me telling them they had no idea about this game. So how many thousands of potential players are they loosing because there is not a box on a store shelf to get their attention?
5. By the time it is available in stores it will be too late. Often what appeals to gamers is going to a game that just came out. There will be a lot of people around your level and not so many that are a lot more powerful than you. DnL will be divided into two camps. Those who were there with the online release and then all of the new players that got it from the store. This I think will hurt the overall sales of the game.
Even the best games can be ruined by poor planning and I believe that DnL just shot itself in the foot with this decision.
Comments
They make it online download first so the little kiddys don't run to shop and ask mommy to buy the game then ruin it.
they want the good part of the community to build up the game.
I may be wrong, but I assumed that before it is released in stores that it would be free to download in the form of a bittorrent or through the bittorrent-like filesharing program two-degrees.
It will not be free to download. They will charge you for the game just like you bought it at the store. By doing it this way they will make more of a profit on sales than by a publishing deal.
As for ruining the game. There has yet to be a large successful game that was 'built up.' If they were going to be a huge success they started about that way. In fact the only game that has a steady increasing subscriber base over a long period of time is EVE. But they still do not have 60,000 subscribers. In a game that is supposed to be huge as one of its selling points, taking an action that will guarantee you a small subsciber base in a highly competive genre (fantasy/mmorpg) you are essentially guaranteing your failure.
Don't forget that DnL is being made by a relatively new/small company. Publishers right now are looking VERY carefully at potential MMO deals. It's not as nice as it was a few years ago, where if your game was almost done publishers would come beating down your door to get distribution rights. They're much pickier now. It could be that DnL is simply having trouble FINDING distribution so far.
Owyn
Commander, Defenders of Order
http://www.defendersoforder.com
the only thing that is bad for me is the game will maybe be to big for my 10gb off download each month
but lucky i have friends with unnlimited downloads 
. 
also this game would,t get a open beta right?? so maybe if its cheap enof players wouldent mind speindg thoes money to try it out...
Sounds good to bye the game cheaper
My point was that you still had to purcahse it, not that it would be the same cost.
If they had a simultanious launch of the game where for $50 at the store you bought it, or $35 online then I would say that is a good idea. However, to limit oneself to only online sales for the first few months essentially guarantees low number of subscibers. Given that and the fact that all new games have bad bugs the first few months, it will give the impression that people are paying to Beta test the game prior to its real release.
They are shortsighted in their attempt to be visionary. The idea is they will make more money by not having a publisher. Further they will help spur the online economy, etc. To be a really successful game in this genre you need about 100,000 subscibers in the first 1-3 months. Maybe having an EU and US release at the same time online will get them to that number. However I see them having 20,000-50,000 at the most. By the time the game will be sold it stores it will be too late.
But I think I might have anothre reason why they are doing it this way. They are afraid there might be too many people playing it at first so sell the game online which will end up with far fewer number of subscibers and see how the system really works and fix the problems prior to selling it in the store. Which in a way sounds liking paying to beta test the game.
i thought i heard mention of releasing it on BitTorrent, this was probably just a rumor but it would take care of some problems.
Make of it what you will.
well I havn't heard anything about bittorrent and DnL together though it would be a good idea
one would think that this game of all the games to be released would get the publishers attention. just because look at the hype meter on this site and many others a lot of "in development games" i dont hear of before there released, when there released and after there released. this is to say a lot of the in devlopment games arent good enough to get the attention of the market, which contrary to the medias beliefs really only rewards good games, witht eh possible excpetion of highly anticipated sequals.
and if they do download i dont think its because of publishing problems, i think its cus the polls on their homesite are suggesting they do it.
98% of the teenage population does or has tried smoking pot. If you''re one of the 2% who hasn''t, copy & paste this in your signature.
98% of the teenage population does or has tried smoking pot. If you''re one of the 2% who hasn''t, copy & paste this in your signature.
:::: officially boycotting capital letters ::::
I'm totally in favour of downloading the game.
In this age of broadband, why should we and the devs pay for a middle man to sell the product??
And this game has enough attention and anticipation surrounding it to be succesful as a download only game.
well i think juliandracos has some very valid points. i believe all users should have the option of buying in store or downloading so both parties are happy
:::: officially boycotting capital letters ::::
In an ideal world you would be correct. But realistically unless you are a company with alot of financial muscle behind you publishing is a less attractive route.
I also think that we, the consumers, need a shift of attitude because times have changed. Why don't we use new technologies such as broadband to demand direct distribution? That will only benefit us - buying from a shop is economically inefficient in a true digital age.
*Agrees with Stav1*
Yes, we should use the ever growing broadband net to demand more direct distribution at greatly reduced costs. There is no need for costly boxes in shops. - It just makes it more expensive for consumers because it's very expensive for companies to distribute this way, while distributing over internet has a very low cost.
Nemo sine vitio est
I agree with this method of distribution.
I can guarantee that this game is going to be completely bug ridden at launch. It's better to do so on a select audience of hardcore gamers with good connections than the whole general public..... like EQ2 did.
For this reason I am not picking this game up on day one. I'll probaly wait for retail, maybe even after. The game's lookin good though, I just don't want it ruined by first impressions.
I do not think you can really learn anything from a poll. But just look at it. Of those people who hang out on the net and follow mmorpg enough to learn of DnL, and then go over to their site, 72% favor download. So basically 7200 people who hang out at DnL have broadband is all that the poll shows.
Also the game only needs a 56k modem to play. It will be released in stores eventually.
Part of the selling point of this game is that it is huge and will have a lot of people on it. However, restricting it to broadband will guarantee only a small turn out. It makes one wonder as to if they are really ready, or it will just be another pay so you can play beta.
By the time the game does reach the stores, there will be even more competition in the market. Simply put they are going for short term gain instead of long term. A simultanious release would be best. Maybe broadband a week earlier. As much as people talk about what you need is a good game is simply wrong. There are a lot of bad games that are successful and many good games that have been canceled. The successful releases of games have been ones that start as a huge success.
One of the biggest complaints against older games like DAOC is that everyone is already so high level and there is no one to group with. If you allow a broadband only audience to play the game for months prior to release aren't you simply creating the same problem? There will be people buying the game, but how many are going to be discouraged over the fact that the broadbanders are already having titles and owning kingdoms?
If DnL had servers then it might work with broadband and then in stores. However, since it is supposed to be one persistant world with 100,000+ players as its selling point then it would seem a horrible idea to be only download. They are pushing inovation to far for the market. Make it in store and broadband at the same time. It will still be a few years before the market can support a large game via download only. And just remember, with a huge game, even people with DSL are going to need a long time to download the game
_____________________________________
"Io rido, e rider mio non passa dentro;
Io ardo, e l'arsion mia non par di fore."
-Machiavelli
Not exactly true. First it is now tied with Lineage 2 for the #1 game in the world. It gell from almost 4 million subscribers to just over 2 million. Its subscription numbers are expected to decline even further although how many more will transfer from Lineage to Lineage 2 any longer is another question.
Second, Lineage is mostly played in Korea and with large numbers in Japan, China, and other South East Asian countries. Is Dark and Light going to be marketed as a cultural phenomenon in Asia?
Third, how many people who are not hanging around boards and very much into mmorpg have even heard of Lineage or Lineage 2? Remember it is the mass market that needs to be appeal to, not the people who hang around game webstites.
Fourth, most subscriptions of Lineage are corporate accounts. Companies buy a lot of accounts and put them in the internet cafe. People come in, have a drink, talk to friends, and play Lineage. That is where a substantial amount of their subscription comes from.
Fifth, Lineage has original Nintendo graphics. It is easy enough to download on a 56k modem or get a free copy on CD.
Dark and Light will not be a cultural phenomenon like Lineage. DnL is being marketed for North America and the EU. It is a much more graphical intense game that will require a huge amount of bandwidth to download.
So there will not be a way to generate the same buzz for DnL as for Lineage. It is not as easy to download for most people (even on DSL connection you will be looking at around an hour+). Unless the executible download is able to be broken it, it will be more dificult to make copies for your friends that do not have the game. There won't be corporate accounts.
To put it simply, comparing Lineage to DnL is just a bad analogy given these significant differences.
Bottom line is they are a small independant team of Devs... they cant afford to have a World wide release with boxes in every game store... its a fact of life... if they get a good starter base with downloads that can assure them of some finacial stability then and only then will they secure shelf space.
If the interest does not materialize, then they will cut their losses and never release instore, saving themselves from even worse finacial loss... its the only way a small independant can go so they dont sink. Its a risk benefit thing, and the Devs dont have a load of money to pull this one off... its their own money as well thats invested in this thing... something had to give.
It doesn't cost too much to put the game out in stores. In fact it doesn't really cost the developers anything. You sign a publishing deal. The publisher distributes the game and takes X% of the profit.
What the devleopers have decided to do is instead of making say $10 per copy they will now make $20-$30 a copy. They are going for a short term gain as opposed to a long term strategy. It is not because they cannot put it out in stores, it is simply that they deicded to try another aproach, one which I think will fail. (Which is an odd thing. One the one hand if I am right I will feel good, but then again I will be upset because no DnL.)
Mythic was not a huge corporation and they got a publisher. Saga of Ryzom got a publisher. DnL developers are themselves wealthy (although maybe not that much anymore given development costs.)
So DnL could do a worldwide release. But they are trying a different strategy in an attempt to generate more capital in the short run to help offset development costs. For long term success given how this game is supposed to be (1 huge world) then to me it seems they should have adopted a more long term strategy and chosen to get more players at first and make their money starting the 2-3rd month of the game being out.
I doubt commercializing online as to be a mistake. It is a choice, probably as said to make more money in a short run. However seeing market potential, this game is an european development project if I'm not mistaken. The main part of E.U. market has at least dsl, even in a tiny country 512k is a minimum. Taken this view on the market, their choice seems more of a logical one.
Seeing how this game presents itself their will be a large offline campaign at retail release. A retail release they are planning to finance themselves as I understand it hence the first part. Being your propper publisher brings you in that extra % you would be giving away. Maybe in negotiations with publishers and considering the hype the investors considered it to much of a loss to have third party publishing.
We'll see in the long run but if you can make more money with less players, what would you choose? Providing you have the means and the will to invest ofcourse. I congratulate them on their willingness to take a risk. Let's say with a selfpublishing they make 30$ per sale and with a third party publisher they only make 20$. Immediate retail would give them an edge of about 100,000 sales rough estimate on a total of let's say 1,000,000 sales, earning them a total of 20mil with third party publishing. Own retail would bring in with only 900,000 sales about 27mil. Now if you are willing to take that risk, why wouldn't you just try to earn that 7mil extra? (Numbers are fictional - just to make a point)
I personally hardly buy any retail titles as I believe paying 50$ for a game is plain and utter insanity, knowing how much goes into boxing and the fact that the end result is the same : game is on pc. Besides I the game cost itself to be a substantial form of income, the bigger part of their money comes from long term accounts... (calculates 60months of 12.95$ subscription fees.... yes that's right =p, playing mmorpg's hurts your wallet).
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