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Predictions - When and who could bring the next "WOW"

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  • StapledPupptStapledPuppt Member Posts: 19

    Originally posted by maskedweasel

    Originally posted by StapledPuppt

     

    That'll surely make WoW a zombie! (HAHAHAHA).

    I think WoWs eaten enough brains already, thank you.

    NICELY DONE! Nicely done...

    -StapledPuppet

  • jnicholajnichola Member Posts: 118

    Originally posted by grimm6th

    Originally posted by Elidien

    TOR will be the next biggest game on the market inititally. If it will retain those players and grow is yet to be determined though and honestly that is/was WOW's strength - the ability to keep old players while getting new ones.

    After that, it will be hard to say. No other announced game, at this point, could be be huge (at least in my opinion). Personally, I think a Harry Potter MMO could be absolutely incredible (if done correctly) and could pull in large numbers.

    And if you get a pairing, as many suggest of Blizzard and Halo, that would be beyond huge....again if done well.

    It takes so much for a game to be big. WOW was not expected to be as big as it is but it reached an untapped market of a casual MMO player. In 2004, this was almost unheard of. MMO were able to become a mainstream game and the rest is history.

    The "next WOW" would have to reach a similar untapped market at the right time. I think Bioware is on to something with the choices you make affecting gameplay but that along I do not think will be big enough.

    TOR can only be the next biggest game if 1) it comes out befor GW2, and 2) it successfully hypes itself back into the good graces of a lot of non-core starwars fans.  Starwars is a great IP, but I think that its been rehashed in game after game so many times that the IP aspect of it is not going to be as big a pull as it could be.

    A Harry Potter MMO would most likely be horrible.  So, say a HP MMO got developed.  I can see a lot of potential in a faction based game archetecture (the different academies of magic, different nations, being good or evil) but the end goals of the character (and no aimless wandering in this day and age of game making) would be entirely unrelated to the main focus of HP, which was the school and voldemort.  Are we supposed to have a player driven struggle for control over the world?  What would the story be?  In the end 10 developers could make any game they wanted, make the setting be that of the books, and end end up with 10 very distinct games.  There is just not enough cause to base a game off an IP if the only thing it adds to the game is consumer recognition.  It still has to be a good game and I am of the opinion that a good game is going to be successful even if it didn't pay big bucks to use a rediculously well known IP.

    @OP --> Lastly, I don't believe that another WoW would be another WoW.  WoW ended up being huge because of the environment that it was released in.  If WoW had been released a few years later (with better graphics and a better initial release) it would probably not have done as well as it did.  I think that there are a lot of games that could have been made and been successful if they were actually trying to design a good game instead of leeching off of the success of WoW, and in fact I think that they may have failed for reasons that are 2 fold.  First they market for such a game was already devoted to playing the massively addicting WoW and second, the flaws of WoW were being replicated too.  Think about the reasons people leave WoW.  Do they want to play a game that is exactly the same but a different IP?  no.  I think the success of WoW can't be replicated without replicating the external factors that allowed WoW to become as big as it is today.

    Anyways, the question of the next big game is still unanswered in my eyes, but I can only see myself playing GW2 in the future.  I am not really interested in SWTOR, TERA, Rift (unless it goes F2P but I would be waiting for a while), or any number of other good games that are due in the near future.  I hope that everyone realizes that the next big game WON'T have the same effect on the gaming community as WoW did when it came out (my whole reason for my rant on WoW is to explain this statement). 

    I agree with elidien here TOR is the next big thing... the studio knows how to market globally and have been stampoing out blockbusters on platforms for years, no reason to expect TOR would be an exception to their current track record... as for GW2 I cant see it being much more of a success than its predecessor,  it was never a huge game.  Anyway I think you are comparing apples and oranges ... freeworlds is the only FTP game i have seen to even come close to rivaling the sub count WoW has ... and by far WoW still reignns supreme.

     

    I will agree with an earlier poster as well that I believe this sor t of thing is impossible to predict ... but it sure is fun trying...

     

    My guess would be TOR sees 4-5 million subs at its peak.  This will be the second most successful MMO ever.

  • MardyMardy Member Posts: 2,213

    Blizzard will be the company that brings us the next WoW, because they know by now what people want and how to create games that are accessible by majority of the players.  They also have the resources to do it. 

     

    As for when, I don't know.  I don't see them releasing a game that competes with WoW until WoW loses half of its subscriber base and starts to really shrink.  So that's gonna be a long time yet before that happens.  The way they have coded their game and their engine, they can keep upgrading it and keep adding more and more expansions on it.  Don't count WoW out just yet, I see it as a game people go back to play every other year or so.  People will try out new games for sure, but there aren't a lot of new games with longevity these days.

    EQ1-AC1-DAOC-FFXI-L2-EQ2-WoW-DDO-GW-LoTR-VG-WAR-GW2-ESO

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    There won't be a next "WoW", but when it comes to also taking a large part of the MMORPG playerbase pie, then I think it'll be a joint combination of the contenders GW2, SW:TOR and Rift.

    Separately they might have good to great success, but those 3 taken together are a force impacting the MMO scene to be reckoned with.

    Add to that follow up MMORPG's as TERA, The Secret World and World of Darkness, and it becomes clear that the power is in the pack of upcoming MMO's, not in a sole one: taken together they have the potential to drastically change the MMO scene.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • MimiEZMimiEZ Member Posts: 225

    You can't predict the next WoW, just like you can't predict the next Elvis, Beatles, Micheal Jackson, or Star Wars. There are 3 things all these superhits had in common that made them so big.

    1. They did what they did well. I'm not saying everyone liked the Beatles, I think they are overrated beyond overrated, I'm saying that all the singers could sing, the dancers could dance, the musicians could play, the movie was well made. Wow wasn't some half-fast made game. Doing this alone makes a game good.

    2. They all got as much publicity as they could for the time: they got this either from having good relations, or good advertising. Wow had the previous games as an example of good relations, and they had good advertising. For most AAA MMO's I only see advertised on gaming websites, hardly anywhere else, actually I can't recall an MMO, besides WoW, being advertised outside of gaming sites/magazines at this point.  Doing this well, along with the first will likely make the game a hit.

    3. This is what defined all these as Super Hits. You can try to predict this, however it would might be too difficult...they had excellent timing. Having the first 2 and excellent timing makes a "Super Hit!" as I like to call them.

     

    That being said, I don't see any game coming up being the next Wow, however the only game I can see being a big hit is SWTOR.

    1. I can't imagine the game being incomplete.

    2. Bioware has a strong fanbase, and star wars has a strong fanbase. However, if they don't advertise (which I believe they will do well), most of the fanbase probably won't even know about the game. Just to further emphasize the need to get the word out beyond just the Bioware site is with me and wow. I played starcraft and warcraft 3 and loved them, however I had no idea wow until I saw an advertisement on the TV. Not every fan is so obsessed they check the website a lot.

    3. I don't see anything within the next year that will make SWTOR have good timing.

     

    The reason I didn't say Guild Wars 2 is because they don't really have the relations part down, but maybe they can make it up with advertising.

    image
    -I want a Platformer MMO

  • BeansnBreadBeansnBread Member EpicPosts: 7,254

    Originally posted by cyphers

    There won't be a next "WoW", but when it comes to also taking a large part of the MMORPG playerbase pie, then I think it'll be a joint combination of the contenders GW2, SW:TOR and Rift.

    Separately they might have good to great success, but those 3 taken together are a force impacting the MMO scene to be reckoned with.

    Add to that follow up MMORPG's as TERA, The Secret World and World of Darkness, and it becomes clear that the power is in the pack of upcoming MMO's, not in a sole one: taken together they have the potential to drastically change the MMO scene.

    Just remember that not too long ago people were saying the same things about WAR, AoC and LotRO. I mean, credible people were talking it about it the same way you (who I view as credible) are talking about it now. WoW subs have remained mostly the same as they were before all of those games came out and continue to stay about the same.

     

    I personally think that WoW is going to increase it's subscriber base over the next year or so, and once some of these games come out, they might take a short dip, but in the long run, I don't see those games as having a huge impact.

     

    It will be interesting to see when WoW actually does start to show some major declines though. And it will be interesting to see what they do to try and attract people to it.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by colddog04

    Just remember that not too long ago people were saying the same things about WAR, AoC and LotRO. I mean, credible people were talking it about it the same way you (who I view as credible) are talking about it now. WoW subs have remained mostly the same as they were before all of those games came out and continue to stay about the same.

    Oh, I haven't any rock hard beliefs or convictions regarding the upcoming years, that's why I said 'they have the potential', after all the future is as malleable and dependable as longterm weather forecasts. (you viewing me as credible is amusing btw, but feel free image)

    But the lineup of upcoming MMORPG's for 2011-2012 is definitely the strongest I've seen since that I started playing MMORPG's, there's some great titles and runner-ups among them.

    I've never felt that about a AoC, LotrO, WAR or Aion, in contrast to whatever hype was going on at those times. Even if they might have 'only' a few 100k of subs in the end, I certainly expect that I'll enjoy playing those 2011-2012 MMORPG's more than any other MMORPG I've played, with the exception of EQ.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • LolusLolus Member UncommonPosts: 29

    Blizzard said they can make WoW F2P when needed, I don't see any new 'WoW' on the horizon tbh

  • BeansnBreadBeansnBread Member EpicPosts: 7,254

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Originally posted by colddog04



    Just remember that not too long ago people were saying the same things about WAR, AoC and LotRO. I mean, credible people were talking it about it the same way you (who I view as credible) are talking about it now. WoW subs have remained mostly the same as they were before all of those games came out and continue to stay about the same.

    Oh, I haven't any rock hard beliefs or convictions regarding the upcoming years, that's why I said 'they have the potential', after all the future is as malleable and dependable as longterm weather forecasts. (you viewing me as credible is amusing btw, but feel free image)

    But the lineup of upcoming MMORPG's for 2011-2012 is definitely the strongest I've seen since that I started playing MMORPG's, there's some great titles and runner-ups among them.

    I've never felt that about a AoC, LotrO, WAR or Aion, in contrast to whatever hype was going on at those times. Even if they might have 'only' a few 100k of subs in the end, I certainly expect that I'll enjoy playing those 2011-2012 MMORPG's more than any other MMORPG I've played, with the exception of EQ.

    Credible in the, "I actually read your posts and pay attention to what you are saying," way. :P

     

    And I agree with you. 2011-2012 is going to be a great year for MMORPGs. It makes it tough for me because I want to play all of these upcoming games, but I also want to commit to maybe 2 MMORPGs or less. Right now I play EVE and WoW. Will one of those games be replaced? That is the question. :)

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by colddog04

    Credible in the, "I actually read your posts and pay attention to what you are saying," way. :P

     

    And I agree with you. 2011-2012 is going to be a great year for MMORPGs. It makes it tough for me because I want to play all of these upcoming games, but I also want to commit to maybe 2 MMORPGs or less. Right now I play EVE and WoW. Will one of those games be replaced? That is the question. :)

    Lol! That's how it shows, I'm as good with English as my native language but sometimes the finer nuances and meanings slip by, my bad image

     

    The biggest problem in 2011-2012 will be spare time, yes. Damn real life!

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • rejadrejad Member Posts: 346

    I don't think there will be a next one.  Ten years ago you could have said "what will be the next Internet Explorer?" based on how many people used the browser back then.  It dominated.  Now with Firefox and Google's broswer it's all pretty divided up.  No one browser commands the numbers that IE did back in 2000, not even the updated IE.  That's the way it is with many new markets, historically.  When WoW goes by the wayside finally, I doubt any one MMO will ever own such a huge share of the total MMO market.

  • sentry13sentry13 Member Posts: 115

    I don't think their will ever really be another mmo as dominant as WoW is.  I think eventually WoW numbers will fall to around equal with whatever other popular mmos are out at the time.  WoW was a fluke, they got lucky and made good decisions to secure their position.  Once they had a good lead the WoW machine was able to feed off of itself, there was no catching them after that.

  • Swafdawg23Swafdawg23 Member Posts: 390

    i dont think anything will match the success WOW had during its prime, but TOR has the best chance.

    gamertag - Swaffle House

  • dannydeucedannydeuce Member Posts: 310

    Originally posted by Edli

    Originally posted by Kopogero

    From design ideas to budget power as well as experience in development who has the best chance? I know many think Bioware at the moment with its enormous budget, but as I mentioned above and the community knows that Bioware has 0 experience with MMORPG's.

     

    So your reason why bioware will not bring it down is because it has 0 experience with mmorpg? The colossal that doesn't go down was done from a company that had 0 experience with mmos too. 

    Good point!

    I think Star Wars has the greatest possibilty out of all the current choices simply based on a numbers game.  It has a pre-built following from fans of its company and fans of the Star Wars name.  It just has the most going for it in almost all categories.  It even has similarities to WoW in that many people, this site included, like to bash it to pieces.  Meaning it may be that game that appeals to casuals and hard core players alike...and that doesn't sit well with many.

  • KopogeroKopogero Member UncommonPosts: 1,685

    Originally posted by dannydeuce

    Originally posted by Edli

    Originally posted by Kopogero

    From design ideas to budget power as well as experience in development who has the best chance? I know many think Bioware at the moment with its enormous budget, but as I mentioned above and the community knows that Bioware has 0 experience with MMORPG's.

     

    So your reason why bioware will not bring it down is because it has 0 experience with mmorpg? The colossal that doesn't go down was done from a company that had 0 experience with mmos too. 

    Good point!

    I think Star Wars has the greatest possibilty out of all the current choices simply based on a numbers game.  It has a pre-built following from fans of its company and fans of the Star Wars name.  It just has the most going for it in almost all categories.  It even has similarities to WoW in that many people, this site included, like to bash it to pieces.  Meaning it may be that game that appeals to casuals and hard core players alike...and that doesn't sit well with many.

     ROFL, then you might've been not born when Star Craft, Diablo, Warcraft were dominating the globe. Blizzard did gain a LOT of experience dealing with customer support, hackers, botters, patching and overall running battle net. And then for you to say that WOW also comes from a company with 0 MMO experience is hilarious.

    Back on topic. I like Bioware to suceed myself. I like to see Blizzard challenged, but I am also honest with my opinions because I am not a biased fanboy. I know as well as rest of the community that beside voice acting and "story telling" there is nothing else. It's a poor WOW version with clunky lightsaber combat and single player feeling in a MMO environment.

    image

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    The argument is a bit pointless and repetitive, but let's give it a try again.

    Whoever says that Bioware has less or 0 experience with MMORPG's, has very likely never experienced Neverwinter Nights of them. Even to this day there are NWN servers, and there have been NWN persistent world servers that housed hundreds of players, all adventuring, socialising, questing in persistent online fantasy worlds. Sounds almost like full MMORPG's to me by definition, and more so than Blizzard's Diablo and Warcraft series.

     

    Regarding SW:TOR being VO and a singleplayer storytelling and nothing more than that. It's a moronic line of thinking and hyperbolic exaggeration, but if you need to believe that, then feel free to do so. It's best to just wait until next year and it becomes clear in the end anyway what SW:TOR has to offer.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • GrayGhost79GrayGhost79 Member UncommonPosts: 4,775

    Originally posted by cyphers

    The argument is a bit pointless and repetitive, but let's give it a try again.

    Whoever says that Bioware has less or 0 experience with MMORPG's, has very likely never experienced Neverwinter Nights of them. Even to this day there are NWN servers, and there have been NWN persistent world servers that housed hundreds of players, all adventuring, socialising, questing in persistent online fantasy worlds. Sounds almost like full MMORPG's to me by definition, and more so than Blizzard's Diablo and Warcraft series.

     

    Regarding SW:TOR being VO and a singleplayer storytelling and nothing more than that. It's a moronic line of thinking and hyperbolic exaggeration, but if you need to believe that, then feel free to do so. It's best to just wait until next year and it becomes clear in the end anyway what SW:TOR has to offer.

    It's a bit worse than that. People saying Bioware has 0 experience with MMORPG's are a bit dated on their info. Bioware and Mythic were actually merged. So it isn't just Bioware to begin with anymore. It's Bioware/Mythic lol. 

    Bioware has the massive RPG experience and Mythic has the MMO experience. Sure WAR was meh, but DAoC was good enough that it's still around and able to charge a monthly fee unlike many games that came after it. 

     

  • bookworm438bookworm438 Member Posts: 647

    I'm noy going to predict a specific game. My only prediction is that the next "WoW" so to speak, in terms of the number of subscriptions, will be an MMO that is launched with a high level of polish at the perfect time. I think only then can something ever overtake WoW. Until that right time comes, what ever it is, WoW will forever dominate the MMO market.

  • ArndurArndur Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,202

    Originally posted by Robokapp

    who would bring the next Roman Empire?

     

    the question is slightly irrational. We're not fighting barbarians anymore. It's not as easy to conquer the entire known world under one MMO.

     

    (not a troll post)

    (not a troll btw just a reply to make a point)

    The US did, and in the future someone else will be the new US. Its near impossible to stay on top and thats why I think WoW will get replaced.

    It's tough to say as the other gaming juggernauts dont have great mmo records. Bethesda could do it with the elder scrolls or fallout franchise if they made it open world. Problem lies in the rating though as they are M games and shouldnt have to be toned down for a mmo. EA and Ubisoft can both throw the money at a mmo that Blizzard can but weather or not they want to get the right team behind it is a whole nother story.

    Hold on Snow Leopard, imma let you finish, but Windows had one of the best operating systems of all time.

    If the Powerball lottery was like Lotro, nobody would win for 2 years, and then everyone in Nebraska would win on the same day.
    And then Nebraska would get nerfed.-pinkwood lotro fourms

    AMD 4800 2.4ghz-3GB RAM 533mhz-EVGA 9500GT 512mb-320gb HD

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