They'll all be shit but SWTOR which the WoW crowd will love but the hardcore will hate and the hardcore people will go another year without anything good.
I disagree, the game will not be all that appealing to the WoW crowd. It probably will appeal to a casual player, but not to the same type of player that plays WoW.
Who exactly do you mean by hardcore? Hardcore Star Wars fans? Hardcore MMO players? Who?
Ummmm... no. Console gamers aren't MMO gamers periode. It might add 100 or 200k( ok maybe 300k, but thats stretching it) for a while max imo. Especially when you consider what the game has to offer.
Hahhaha...
"Console gamers aren't FPS gamers, period. FPS can never succeed outside PC platform."
That's what people said when there were no FPS's on consoles. Not surprisingly they were wrong.
Either way I find it funny that XIV would be on the downfall right the moment when their PS3 version launches. Few months afterwards maybe, but not on the release day.
I'd say Rift will do better and GW2 will do worse.
Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
In late April or early May we will see the launch of Rift. Many expect it to rival even GW2, and while Rift will sell many boxes, prolly up to 1 million, it will be too much just "more of the same" for many gamers.
Rift won't sell 1 million by a long shot, maybe 100k-300k max, right before they go bankrupt like APB.
Rift is going for a U.S. launch, not a worldwide launch, you can't reach 1 million without Asia and Europe unless you're a very big IP, which Rift is not.
GW2 and Rift are in totally different leagues, GW2 will have a global launch and will sell 1 mill.
They'll all be shit but SWTOR which the WoW crowd will love but the hardcore will hate and the hardcore people will go another year without anything good.
I disagree, the game will not be all that appealing to the WoW crowd. It probably will appeal to a casual player, but not to the same type of player that plays WoW.
Who exactly do you mean by hardcore? Hardcore Star Wars fans? Hardcore MMO players? Who?
People who like a death penalty
I take it then you're talking about a hardcore mmo player. What a hardcore mmo player likes is rather subjective and goes well beyond a simple death penalty. They are also a minority of players and are a niche crowd. Actually I would consider a death penalty more of an issue for the hardcore roleplayer, which isn't necessarily the same thing as a hardcore mmo player.
However, real roleplayers are a rare breed unfortunately. A hardcore roleplayer is less likely to take issue with the casual nature of an mmo as long as all the lore is right. If the lore is right then they can work around anything else. They'll form their own guilds and shut out the masses of other players and actually play the roles of their characters. Something I havent' done in years and wouldn't mind doing again.
Then there are the even rarer roleplayers who think death should always be permanent, these are generally what I like to call 'roleplaying nazi's' who feel that only their way of roleplay is the correct way and haven't figure out yet that permadeath in a video game...especially one with any kind of challenge to it...isn't in the least bit entertaining. They should never be unleashed from the table of a pen and paper game.
We know that people don't 'die' when you go down in TOR, rather they are considered unconcious and badly injured like in CoH. We don't know yet if there will be any penalties associated with it yet.
Rift won't sell that much and neither will GW2. From ALL the MMOs that exist and are announced to come out, the only one that was able to attract the non-mmo crowd was WoW, swtor might do it but to a lesser extent. The assumption of GW2 selling 8-10m coppies in the first 2 months is more than illogical.
In late April or early May we will see the launch of Rift. Many expect it to rival even GW2, and while Rift will sell many boxes, prolly up to 1 million, it will be too much just "more of the same" for many gamers.
Rift won't sell 1 million by a long shot, maybe 100k-300k max, right before they go bankrupt like APB.
Rift is going for a U.S. launch, not a worldwide launch, you can't reach 1 million without Asia and Europe unless you're a very big IP, which Rift is not.
GW2 and Rift are in totally different leagues, GW2 will have a global launch and will sell 1 mill.
If thats the reason then no major AAA mmorpg will ever succeed , sorry Rift is set to launch in europe as well as US.
It gives the public finally a alternative to play with there North AMerican or European gamers .
Something missing last 8 years , aside from buying EU products or NA products with credit card .
Sorry i dont know how much RIFT sells for but the rumor mill , and nda closure showing problems is right on track.
Closed beta (or this case wierd kind of beta) shows tons of backbone problems .
Back problems are (infrastructure, techincal help and server problems) remember Tirion is new to this .
rather solve it on beta then having problems on launch . its a bit sad that i have to go trough 3rd party channels to get my sources . but then again if i weren´t i couldn´t post anything :P
Anyway the bad rumors and problems are standard for beta , people in this generation still dont understand beta .
If that was the final product the moans have been justified , they still got 4 months to fix there product .
(but dont expect major changes just polishing and bug fixing, so if its not your cup of tea , its not your cup of tea)
GW2 my hunches it will seel atleast worldwide 4 million copies (so dont pull your hair and grow a hissy fit , its the minimum amount it will sell) , since its just buy and play .
Thats the minimum i think will try it , but problems is that GW2 overhyped the product , so any minor bug , becomes a major bug , and the fanboi base will crack down too hard on problems . instead of actively trying to find a fix around .
In late April or early May we will see the launch of Rift. Many expect it to rival even GW2, and while Rift will sell many boxes, prolly up to 1 million, it will be too much just "more of the same" for many gamers.
Rift won't sell 1 million by a long shot, maybe 100k-300k max, right before they go bankrupt like APB.
Rift is going for a U.S. launch, not a worldwide launch, you can't reach 1 million without Asia and Europe unless you're a very big IP, which Rift is not.
GW2 and Rift are in totally different leagues, GW2 will have a global launch and will sell 1 mill.
I agree, it's hard to think Rift will sell 1 million but your numbers feel a bit low. Just given the sheer amount of people who are playing mmo's and those who have been looking for a new game.
Like Skyrim? Need more content? Try my Skyrim mod "Godfred's Tomb."
I am not fully convinced that DCU will over take CoX by 2012. For that to happen, CoX would have to stumble in 2011 with the multiple issues they release related to the Incarnate system, and receiving poor acclaim for all of them. But I am hearing some of these ripple rumors for Issue 20 which will release in a couple of months, and if they are true, I do not think DCU will be able to close the gap so quickly.
I am not fully convinced that DCU will over take CoX by 2012. For that to happen, CoX would have to stumble in 2011 with the multiple issues they release related to the Incarnate system, and receiving poor acclaim for all of them. But I am hearing some of these ripple rumors for Issue 20 which will release in a couple of months, and if they are true, I do not think DCU will be able to close the gap so quickly.
DCU targets the console market , dont forget that its aimed on the playstation 3 .
Thats something might be bigger then CoX market , its not about CoX failing , its just a much bigger market .
Then pc alone , a bigger Source to pull people from , is always beter then a smaller source to pull people from .
Somehow I didn't find 2010. Maybe I lost that year.
Your 2008 predictions were horribly off. WAR is below 50k, AoC is above WAR but not substanially. Vanguard has less than 1,000 players, yet you said it would be EQ2 status. Tabula Rasa at 100-250k, yet it doesn't even exist. You also said there would be no SWTOR MMO.
You're 2009 predictions were better, but no real hard decisions to make as most of the IP's that were releasing were tiny niche games or just obvious flunks.
I commend the effort and it's interesting to see someones thoughts, a good read, but it's obvious to see bias towards GW2
1) DCU is going to sell well. I don't think it will do as well as far as subscription retention. Yet I think it will do well enough to seriously damage CO. Do I think CO will fold? Only if Cryptic folds, which might happen. You see, DCU is like CO, only much more polished and better on all fronts. Those who like CO will like DC better. It won't, however, kill CoX--not in 2012--at any rate. It's superhero, but it's a wholly different animal, designed to attract a wholly different player than DCU. The two games can coexist, but when it's all over, CoX will remain.
2) Tera is going to do just about as well, and fall just about as hard, as Aion.
3) Rift will be this year's Conan. I don't think it will do badly, but there will be plenty of frustrated fans, hoping the game could realize its potential. I anticipate Darkfall-like numbers.
4) Come hell or high, TOR will launch before summer. There might be a delay, but you need to launch an MMO with high expectations by the beginning of summer, so that the breakers will be able to spread the game via word of mouth.
5) Secret World will launch for the same reasons as #4.
6) SOE will keep Vanguard on, but as a zombie (no development dollars). It makes the Station pass more valuable, and really adds nothing to SOE if they remove it.
7) I think McQuaid and Garriot get hired on development teams for already established games. At least one will go to WAR, the other one to D&D Online (fates worse than what Elikal proposes).
8) Blizzard will hype up Diablo III, which they will bill as an MMO.
9) GW2 will launch in time for Christmas buzz. It might sell in the mid-hundred thousands, but it will not impact subscriptions so much.
10) TOR online will sell maybe 2 mil, but I'm thinking less than 1 mil. People think this genre is far more popular than it is. The fact is, the subscription is a high barrier for entry, except if its a phenomenon like Warcraft. TOR, however, is no Warcraft. TOR is an old IP. The kids just don't get it so much, since many of them haven't even played, nor really want to play, the old KOTOR series.
Agreed with the notion that WoW will experience a downturn. Not because of any MMO game, but just because the MMO thing, in general, is growing old; and WoW, specifically, is growing older. In fact, I think it might have happened already. That said, I don't think the game will close in five years. I think it will stay open for at least twenty years, maybe longer. It's a hard thing to pull the plug on something that already has so much development and history behind it. Besides, they still run Diablo I on Battle.net. It seems to me that WoW is a no-brainer.
Agreed with the notion that old crusty games will downsize. That said, they'll still be online in some form.
I don't think Square is so square as to shut FFXIV down. I think they'll try to patch it on the fly. This might end up in an NGE 2.0. You have to remember that Japan has never experienced an NGE (Japan's servers were closed down before the NGE hit). They have yet to learn from history, so they will repeat it.
__________________________ "Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it." --Arcken
"...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints." --Hellmar, CEO of CCP.
"It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls." --Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE
Somehow I didn't find 2010. Maybe I lost that year.
Your 2008 predictions were horribly off. WAR is below 50k, AoC is above WAR but not substanially. Vanguard has less than 1,000 players, yet you said it would be EQ2 status. Tabula Rasa at 100-250k, yet it doesn't even exist. You also said there would be no SWTOR MMO.
You're 2009 predictions were better, but no real hard decisions to make as most of the IP's that were releasing were tiny niche games or just obvious flunks.
I commend the effort and it's interesting to see someones thoughts, a good read, but it's obvious to see bias towards GW2
The numbers were quite off. But I don't have the feeling the text predictions were so wrong. Like Pirates of the Burning Sea: back then so many still thought it would be THE next WOW killer. For real. I was actually quite attacked when I first wrote skeptical about PotBS.
Actually if anything I am more skeptical against GW2. GW1 was some horrible experience for me. The German servers were ripe with immature and aggressive people and being always alone in some instances was terribly boring to me.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I do see the gw2 bias, but I really don't think the numbers will be that far off. Outside of mmo regulars the no sub thing with similar gameplay to wow (please gw2 fanboys don't skin me I just mean after watching the 50 minute play time thing) it will sell heavily, this will sell better than TOR (unfortunately imo) a lot better I'm going to go with at least double the box sales.
----- The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
I think DCUO will sell better than expected and I don't think we'll see TOR in November, summer more likely I think. Other than that, pretty good predictions.
Somehow I didn't find 2010. Maybe I lost that year.
Your 2008 predictions were horribly off. WAR is below 50k, AoC is above WAR but not substanially. Vanguard has less than 1,000 players, yet you said it would be EQ2 status. Tabula Rasa at 100-250k, yet it doesn't even exist. You also said there would be no SWTOR MMO.
You're 2009 predictions were better, but no real hard decisions to make as most of the IP's that were releasing were tiny niche games or just obvious flunks.
I commend the effort and it's interesting to see someones thoughts, a good read, but it's obvious to see bias towards GW2
I agree: the 2008 predictions were off by 300 to 400% !
If the OP was a student of mine he would get a D -.
Since the text itself was more neutral he could have gotten a C, but since his 2011 predictions clearly have the same 300% error rates, I think he failed the test.
A hint: reduce his predictions to 30% of the initial numbers and you will get more credible results, like:
- 3.5 million copies sold of GW2 (remember that's more than GW1, because NCSoft includes every expansion disk and compilation disk ever printed and then calls it "players").
- 1.7 million copies for SW:TOR (because the PC market for Bioware games is around 15% of their totals (meaning 700K per PC title on average). And subscriptions will run around 30% of that number in the first 4 months. 600K.
- The DC comics MMO will be around 100-150K after this same period.
etc...
The worst 2008 predicitons were of course for Tabula Rasa (even stopped) and the 1.000.000 active subscriptions of Lotro.
But I respect the effort. We have seen worse predictions.
Comments
No honestly its fun reading the prediction and doesn´t matter if its wrong or right .
Atleast you post them , just like you said RIFT is the unexpecting factor .
I written it off totally since its fantasy , but almost tempted to sign up for beta .
Cause of the complexity . but then again i wouldn´t play it .
So no use in signing up for stuff i wouldn´t play ,
other side i would play DCUO simply put to see the next gen action style .
If its crap well atleast i can experience the crap meself .
Since if its really too much action , then i can´t stand it for more then 1 hour .
But thats about it .
SWTOR i wont go into details but that one got me sold , so my opnion is no longer objective in that area.
So not worth reading about it .
Just stating the facts how stuff works in fiscal years .
GW2 doesn´t matter when it launch it will succeed .
That one sadly again for me fantasy , but then again it might kill the F2P market if its what its hype out to be .
If it isn´t then everybody will know it the first week of release.
Cause of the dissapointment .
People who like a death penalty
Hahhaha...
"Console gamers aren't FPS gamers, period. FPS can never succeed outside PC platform."
That's what people said when there were no FPS's on consoles. Not surprisingly they were wrong.
Either way I find it funny that XIV would be on the downfall right the moment when their PS3 version launches. Few months afterwards maybe, but not on the release day.
I'd say Rift will do better and GW2 will do worse.
Rift won't sell 1 million by a long shot, maybe 100k-300k max, right before they go bankrupt like APB.
Rift is going for a U.S. launch, not a worldwide launch, you can't reach 1 million without Asia and Europe unless you're a very big IP, which Rift is not.
GW2 and Rift are in totally different leagues, GW2 will have a global launch and will sell 1 mill.
Collector's editions are scams.
I take it then you're talking about a hardcore mmo player. What a hardcore mmo player likes is rather subjective and goes well beyond a simple death penalty. They are also a minority of players and are a niche crowd. Actually I would consider a death penalty more of an issue for the hardcore roleplayer, which isn't necessarily the same thing as a hardcore mmo player.
However, real roleplayers are a rare breed unfortunately. A hardcore roleplayer is less likely to take issue with the casual nature of an mmo as long as all the lore is right. If the lore is right then they can work around anything else. They'll form their own guilds and shut out the masses of other players and actually play the roles of their characters. Something I havent' done in years and wouldn't mind doing again.
Then there are the even rarer roleplayers who think death should always be permanent, these are generally what I like to call 'roleplaying nazi's' who feel that only their way of roleplay is the correct way and haven't figure out yet that permadeath in a video game...especially one with any kind of challenge to it...isn't in the least bit entertaining. They should never be unleashed from the table of a pen and paper game.
We know that people don't 'die' when you go down in TOR, rather they are considered unconcious and badly injured like in CoH. We don't know yet if there will be any penalties associated with it yet.
My apologies for straying .
Decent guesses and I hope we can check next year how good your guesses were.
Rift won't sell that much and neither will GW2. From ALL the MMOs that exist and are announced to come out, the only one that was able to attract the non-mmo crowd was WoW, swtor might do it but to a lesser extent. The assumption of GW2 selling 8-10m coppies in the first 2 months is more than illogical.
If thats the reason then no major AAA mmorpg will ever succeed , sorry Rift is set to launch in europe as well as US.
It gives the public finally a alternative to play with there North AMerican or European gamers .
Something missing last 8 years , aside from buying EU products or NA products with credit card .
Sorry i dont know how much RIFT sells for but the rumor mill , and nda closure showing problems is right on track.
Closed beta (or this case wierd kind of beta) shows tons of backbone problems .
Back problems are (infrastructure, techincal help and server problems) remember Tirion is new to this .
rather solve it on beta then having problems on launch . its a bit sad that i have to go trough 3rd party channels to get my sources . but then again if i weren´t i couldn´t post anything :P
Anyway the bad rumors and problems are standard for beta , people in this generation still dont understand beta .
If that was the final product the moans have been justified , they still got 4 months to fix there product .
(but dont expect major changes just polishing and bug fixing, so if its not your cup of tea , its not your cup of tea)
GW2 my hunches it will seel atleast worldwide 4 million copies (so dont pull your hair and grow a hissy fit , its the minimum amount it will sell) , since its just buy and play .
Thats the minimum i think will try it , but problems is that GW2 overhyped the product , so any minor bug , becomes a major bug , and the fanboi base will crack down too hard on problems . instead of actively trying to find a fix around .
I agree, it's hard to think Rift will sell 1 million but your numbers feel a bit low. Just given the sheer amount of people who are playing mmo's and those who have been looking for a new game.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
I am not fully convinced that DCU will over take CoX by 2012. For that to happen, CoX would have to stumble in 2011 with the multiple issues they release related to the Incarnate system, and receiving poor acclaim for all of them. But I am hearing some of these ripple rumors for Issue 20 which will release in a couple of months, and if they are true, I do not think DCU will be able to close the gap so quickly.
DCU targets the console market , dont forget that its aimed on the playstation 3 .
Thats something might be bigger then CoX market , its not about CoX failing , its just a much bigger market .
Then pc alone , a bigger Source to pull people from , is always beter then a smaller source to pull people from .
Somebody likes GW2. ^^
He who keeps his cool best wins.
Hehe, I think he was exaggerating his predictions and hopes for GW2 but yea, he seems to think it will be good.
This is not a game.
Your 2008 predictions were horribly off. WAR is below 50k, AoC is above WAR but not substanially. Vanguard has less than 1,000 players, yet you said it would be EQ2 status. Tabula Rasa at 100-250k, yet it doesn't even exist. You also said there would be no SWTOR MMO.
You're 2009 predictions were better, but no real hard decisions to make as most of the IP's that were releasing were tiny niche games or just obvious flunks.
I commend the effort and it's interesting to see someones thoughts, a good read, but it's obvious to see bias towards GW2
He who keeps his cool best wins.
Here's my take on Elikal's predictions:
1) DCU is going to sell well. I don't think it will do as well as far as subscription retention. Yet I think it will do well enough to seriously damage CO. Do I think CO will fold? Only if Cryptic folds, which might happen. You see, DCU is like CO, only much more polished and better on all fronts. Those who like CO will like DC better. It won't, however, kill CoX--not in 2012--at any rate. It's superhero, but it's a wholly different animal, designed to attract a wholly different player than DCU. The two games can coexist, but when it's all over, CoX will remain.
2) Tera is going to do just about as well, and fall just about as hard, as Aion.
3) Rift will be this year's Conan. I don't think it will do badly, but there will be plenty of frustrated fans, hoping the game could realize its potential. I anticipate Darkfall-like numbers.
4) Come hell or high, TOR will launch before summer. There might be a delay, but you need to launch an MMO with high expectations by the beginning of summer, so that the breakers will be able to spread the game via word of mouth.
5) Secret World will launch for the same reasons as #4.
6) SOE will keep Vanguard on, but as a zombie (no development dollars). It makes the Station pass more valuable, and really adds nothing to SOE if they remove it.
7) I think McQuaid and Garriot get hired on development teams for already established games. At least one will go to WAR, the other one to D&D Online (fates worse than what Elikal proposes).
8) Blizzard will hype up Diablo III, which they will bill as an MMO.
9) GW2 will launch in time for Christmas buzz. It might sell in the mid-hundred thousands, but it will not impact subscriptions so much.
10) TOR online will sell maybe 2 mil, but I'm thinking less than 1 mil. People think this genre is far more popular than it is. The fact is, the subscription is a high barrier for entry, except if its a phenomenon like Warcraft. TOR, however, is no Warcraft. TOR is an old IP. The kids just don't get it so much, since many of them haven't even played, nor really want to play, the old KOTOR series.
Agreed with the notion that WoW will experience a downturn. Not because of any MMO game, but just because the MMO thing, in general, is growing old; and WoW, specifically, is growing older. In fact, I think it might have happened already. That said, I don't think the game will close in five years. I think it will stay open for at least twenty years, maybe longer. It's a hard thing to pull the plug on something that already has so much development and history behind it. Besides, they still run Diablo I on Battle.net. It seems to me that WoW is a no-brainer.
Agreed with the notion that old crusty games will downsize. That said, they'll still be online in some form.
I don't think Square is so square as to shut FFXIV down. I think they'll try to patch it on the fly. This might end up in an NGE 2.0. You have to remember that Japan has never experienced an NGE (Japan's servers were closed down before the NGE hit). They have yet to learn from history, so they will repeat it.
__________________________
"Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it."
--Arcken
"...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints."
--Hellmar, CEO of CCP.
"It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls."
--Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE
I like Elikal's predictions.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
These are not predictions...this guy is a time traveller...GRAB HIM..
The numbers were quite off. But I don't have the feeling the text predictions were so wrong. Like Pirates of the Burning Sea: back then so many still thought it would be THE next WOW killer. For real. I was actually quite attacked when I first wrote skeptical about PotBS.
Actually if anything I am more skeptical against GW2. GW1 was some horrible experience for me. The German servers were ripe with immature and aggressive people and being always alone in some instances was terribly boring to me.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I do see the gw2 bias, but I really don't think the numbers will be that far off. Outside of mmo regulars the no sub thing with similar gameplay to wow (please gw2 fanboys don't skin me I just mean after watching the 50 minute play time thing) it will sell heavily, this will sell better than TOR (unfortunately imo) a lot better I'm going to go with at least double the box sales.
-----
The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
I think DCUO will sell better than expected and I don't think we'll see TOR in November, summer more likely I think. Other than that, pretty good predictions.
LOL @ The GW2 box sale prediction, its not very real
I think It will sell 3~4 mill in the first year, and note that I am hyped for it
Mind you that The sims (The game with more boxes sold in earth) sold about 16 millions
Since I am bored and have nothing to do I will put my list of release dates
[object Window]
January 2011 --> Nothing, some news about the game under development or betas and thats it, no developer is insane to launch something in january
February 2011--> DC universe online launchs
March 2011 --> Rift Launches in early March, Tera Launches late March
April 2011 --> SW:TOR is delayed to late 2011
May 2011 --> FFXIV goes bankrupt
June 2011 --> GW2 last profession is announced with a release date in August/September
July 2011 --> SW:TOR Announces release date to november/December , GW2 Closed beta late July
August 2011 --> Convention season begins, GW2 and TOR shows a pretty much finished game in the expos
September 2011 --> GW2 Launches / Blizzard announces new MMO / Expansions for WoW and SC2
October 2011 --> SW:TOR Closed Beta mid October
November 2011 --> SW:TOR Launches mid November
December 2011 --> Blizzard launches Diablo 3
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
I agree: the 2008 predictions were off by 300 to 400% !
If the OP was a student of mine he would get a D -.
Since the text itself was more neutral he could have gotten a C, but since his 2011 predictions clearly have the same 300% error rates, I think he failed the test.
A hint: reduce his predictions to 30% of the initial numbers and you will get more credible results, like:
- 3.5 million copies sold of GW2 (remember that's more than GW1, because NCSoft includes every expansion disk and compilation disk ever printed and then calls it "players").
- 1.7 million copies for SW:TOR (because the PC market for Bioware games is around 15% of their totals (meaning 700K per PC title on average). And subscriptions will run around 30% of that number in the first 4 months. 600K.
- The DC comics MMO will be around 100-150K after this same period.
etc...
The worst 2008 predicitons were of course for Tabula Rasa (even stopped) and the 1.000.000 active subscriptions of Lotro.
But I respect the effort. We have seen worse predictions.