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WoW will reign 20 more years according to analysts

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  • VikingGamerVikingGamer Member UncommonPosts: 1,350

    Where these the same analysts that told us we would be coming out of the recession in just a few months? two years ago?

    All die, so die well.

  • AzzatakyAzzataky Member UncommonPosts: 208

    In 2030 you wont be even able to run WoW on your "PC".. So its impossible for it to stay alive that long. ;)

    Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
    Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
    Playing: CS:GO

  • BenthonBenthon Member Posts: 2,069

    Armchair analysts strike again.

    He who keeps his cool best wins.

  • ZaovrantarZaovrantar Member Posts: 85

    How long is that plumber Mario jumping ? : 26 years and counting.

    6 years after Vanilla WOW, Blizzard upped the landscape and quests mechanics and I have a waiting queue of 20 minutes on my server to play my new character.

    WOW has passed the time cycle of a typical video game long ago.

    As of now, all those teenagers and twens will want their youth back when they'll turn 40 in 2025.

    That's just 15 years from now: a revamp of the world, a new graphics engine and on line 3D play and wham ... everybody searches for  Azeroth.

    Batman, Superman, Spiderman, Mario, Zelda, : Azeroth will not be different. It will be there forever.

     

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441

    This kinda remind me of the silly optimism during WW1 but the other way around. "Next week we dine in Berlin" were a popular saying by the British the day before Somme. It didn't turn out so well...

    Sorry but no computer game is good enough to reign for 26, not even the most brilliant masterpiece ever (which is Tetris, not Wow or any other MMO).

    For any game to last that long would mean that kids would start playing the same game as their parents and even grandparents, and unless next generation will differ from every single generation before them that is not going to happen.

    Computer games are best new and even if MMOs last longer and blooms later than other genres I don't see Wow reign in 4 years when it is 10. And I don't think Blizzard believe that either, or they would have left Kaplan which is their top guy as leader of Wow instead of moving him to the next game (Titan?).

    However is it very possible that no game can top Wows earning for the next 20 years, it have gotten in truckloads of money and still get in a lot.

  • alderdalealderdale Member Posts: 301

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

  • CeridithCeridith Member UncommonPosts: 2,980

    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441

    Originally posted by Zaovrantar

    How long is that plumber Mario jumping ? : 26 years and counting.

    6 years after Vanilla WOW, Blizzard upped the landscape and quests mechanics and I have a waiting queue of 20 minutes on my server to play my new character.

    WOW has passed the time cycle of a typical video game long ago.

    As of now, all those teenagers and twens will want their youth back when they'll turn 40 in 2025.

    That's just 15 years from now: a revamp of the world, a new graphics engine and on line 3D play and wham ... everybody searches for  Azeroth.

    Batman, Superman, Spiderman, Mario, Zelda, : Azeroth will not be different. It will be there forever.

     

    Yes but how many play the first Mario game anymore?

    We might have Wow 3 in 20 years and it might be the biggest game then, but Wow will if it even have an open server be at best what UO is today.

    Other games have lasted as long as Wow. Counter strike to mention one and starcraft for that matter. But even them have few players now, nothing lasts forever and if you believe something does ('Cept taxes and death) you are slightly delusional.

    And 26 years is more than forever. Let me tell you about 26 years ago, I got my first computer that year. It was a Commodore 64. And I am pretty sure computers will change as much in the future as it have since then, we might not even have PCs at all then.

  • alderdalealderdale Member Posts: 301

    Originally posted by Ceridith

    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

     My statement is based on Blizzards proven track record, yours is based on some personal disbelief.

    edit: Oh and by the way not much has changed "over just a few years" other than Wow has continued to grow and continue to prove everyone wrong.

  • ZaovrantarZaovrantar Member Posts: 85

    Originally posted by Loke666

    This kinda remind me of the silly optimism during WW1 but the other way around. "Next week we dine in Berlin" were a popular saying by the British the day before Somme. It didn't turn out so well...

    Sorry but no computer game is good enough to reign for 26, not even the most brilliant masterpiece ever (which is Tetris, not Wow or any other MMO).

    For any game to last that long would mean that kids would start playing the same game as their parents and even grandparents, and unless next generation will differ from every single generation before them that is not going to happen.

    Computer games are best new and even if MMOs last longer and blooms later than other genres I don't see Wow reign in 4 years when it is 10. And I don't think Blizzard believe that either, or they would have left Kaplan which is their top guy as leader of Wow instead of moving him to the next game (Titan?).

    However is it very possible that no game can top Wows earning for the next 20 years, it have gotten in truckloads of money and still get in a lot.

    In fact you just proved WOW- bis will be played in 20 years (parents - grandparents) like Monopoly? Clue ? Stratego? Risk?

    The main difference between this generation of video games and those of 10 years ago is that the 3D engine is not changing too much anymore. 3D is 3D and cartoon 3D stays cartoon 3D.

    WOW in Cata is made in 2010 and they didn't even touch much of the graphics. And I am stuck in a queue. :(

  • NekrataalNekrataal Member Posts: 557

    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    We already know the game as been stagnating for the last couple years... after stagnation comes the fall. Upgrading ad vitam aeternam will never change the fact that it is WoW & that it is old. Human nature calls for new stuff, we're made that way. Thats how we have evolved.

  • CeridithCeridith Member UncommonPosts: 2,980

    Originally posted by alderdale

    Originally posted by Ceridith


    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

     My statement is based on Blizzards proven track record, yours is based on some personal disbelief.

    Your statement is based around it's pop-culture status and huge financial success. Mine is based around Blizzard's increasing mistakes that have started out small, but have been growing in frequency and severity over the past few years. If they continue down the road they are, they will be just as bad as Activision... which not so conincidently, they're now partnered with.

  • ZaovrantarZaovrantar Member Posts: 85

    Originally posted by Loke666

    Yes but how many play the first Mario game anymore?

    We might have Wow 3 in 20 years and it might be the biggest game then, but Wow will if it even have an open server be at best what UO is today.

    Other games have lasted as long as Wow. Counter strike to mention one and starcraft for that matter. But even them have few players now, nothing lasts forever and if you believe something does ('Cept taxes and death) you are slightly delusional.

    And 26 years is more than forever. Let me tell you about 26 years ago, I got my first computer that year. It was a Commodore 64. And I am pretty sure computers will change as much in the future as it have since then, we might not even have PCs at all then.

    I think Mario 2010 was the best selling game of this year. Starcraft was the best selling RTS game of this year.

    And Donkey Kong Country was just launched on the WII I believe.

    Yep: Stratego, Monopoly and Risk also are on sale with ... a new box art, but everyone plays the core design.

    Of course WOW bis will be there in 20 years, let's hope for all you guys it will not have 70% of the market. Let us pray.

    But I don't think that all those billions Blizzard is sitting on will just dissapear and they will use the franchize for the next 2 decades.

  • grimfallgrimfall Member UncommonPosts: 1,153

    Originally posted by alderdale

    Originally posted by Ceridith

    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

     My statement is based on Blizzards proven track record, yours is based on some personal disbelief.

    edit: Oh and by the way not much has changed "over just a few years" other than Wow has continued to grow and continue to prove everyone wrong.

     Actually your statement is based on you're belief.  Blizzard has no proven track record of mainitaining an MMO for 25 years. Does Blizzard have 73% (or whatever number was being thrown around earlier) of the RTS market?  Does Blizzard have 73% of the single player RPG market?

    Everquest had a huge percentage (50+) of the western MMO market at one time, and was backed by a little company called Sony - therefore in 15 years Everquest will be the #1 game.

    WoW has already hit the Cash-Cow stage in it's product life cycle, expect to see it slowly decline over the next six years.  There was only one "analyst" who agreed with the headline in the article anyway.

  • alderdalealderdale Member Posts: 301

    Originally posted by Ceridith

    Originally posted by alderdale

    Originally posted by Ceridith

    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

     My statement is based on Blizzards proven track record, yours is based on some personal disbelief.

    Your statement is based around it's pop-culture status and huge financial success. Mine is based around Blizzard's increasing mistakes that have started out small, but have been growing in frequency and severity over the past few years. If they continue down the road they are, they will be just as bad as Activision... which not so conincidently, they're now partnered with.

     Interesting prediction but it would be one of the single biggest displays of fiscal incompetence ever witnessed for an online commodity

     

    edit: It would make the SWG blunder look like a bad hair day

  • elihupelihup Member Posts: 102

    In 20 years, WoW will be about as popular as 26 year old games like Paperboy and Excitebike are today. 

    image

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 43,975

    Good thing the world is ending in 2012 then.

    image

    "True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde 

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

    Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™

    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon






  • VikingGamerVikingGamer Member UncommonPosts: 1,350

    Twenty years ago the super NES was just on the verge of being released and Sega was just about to introduce Sonic the Hedgehog on their Mega Drive console. IBM PS/2s had been out for just a few years with awesome 256 color graphics with really trend setting computers like the atari ST and the Commmodore Amiga with 16 bit chips able to do upto 4000 or so colors in special modes. The idea of a dedicated sound card was introduced by creative labs. 9600 bps modems were the norm and 14.4k bps modems would be arriving within the year.



    People were only just starting to find out about email at work or at school. The world Wide Web was still a few years off because Tim Berner-Lee only just finished writing up the first prototype for it earlier that year having just invented such concepts as URLs HTML and HTTP. The fastest computer was still under construction by Cray, the Y-MP C90 with 16 processors and producing 16 Gflops would be introduced the following year.. Windows 3.0 was introduced earlier in the year and most people had not yet upgraded from DOS.



    Alot changes in 20 years

    All die, so die well.

  • gaeanprayergaeanprayer Member UncommonPosts: 2,341

    Sorry, but no. Incarnations of WoW may continue existing and prospering for 20 years of more, similar to how Mario and Final Fantasy have continued for decades and still enjoy success. But WoW itself, no. If it lasted another 5 years I'd be shocked, and if it did it wouldn't be with the current playerbase. That's not about the game itself, but because technology improves in such leaps and bounds. Can you remember what the world was like 20 years ago? 1990. I was like, 7 years old. I don't even remember having access to a computer until many moons after that, and no decent one until my teens. Hell, in the early 90s people at that time were still enjoying their Super Nintendos and Gamegears.

    That any 'analyst' would claim that only makes it blatantly obvious how very little they know about technology, let alone technology specifically as applied to gaming. People who know nothing of what they speak of, should not speak.

    "Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by Ceridith

    Originally posted by alderdale


    Originally posted by Ceridith


    Originally posted by alderdale

    This is an accurate prediction, you guys are looking at this as if WOW will be the same game in 20 years trying to compete.  Guys its not Wow that makes wow great its Blizzard that makes wow great.  Blizzard can easily maintain their market share if they continue to operate the same way in the future.  My point is that Wow would be unrecognizable in 20 years, with Blizzards ability to produce polished and fun gaming experineces.

    I don't even know how to begin describing just how wrong this statement is...

    Aside from saying that six years I would have agreed with such a statement, but things can and have changed drastically over just a few years.

     My statement is based on Blizzards proven track record, yours is based on some personal disbelief.

    Your statement is based around it's pop-culture status and huge financial success. Mine is based around Blizzard's increasing mistakes that have started out small, but have been growing in frequency and severity over the past few years. If they continue down the road they are, they will be just as bad as Activision... which not so conincidently, they're now partnered with.

    Ah, I see.

    @Alderdale, here's where you go wrong, I highlighted it: 'if they continue to operate the same way in the future'.

     

    Everything changes, Blizzard isn't just the same old Blizzard anymore, it's Activision Blizzard now.

    Nuff said.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • VikingGamerVikingGamer Member UncommonPosts: 1,350

    The great thing about 20 year predictions is that they take 20 years to disprove.

    All die, so die well.

  • ZorgoZorgo Member UncommonPosts: 2,254

    Originally posted by Destructhor

    Financially speaking, yes they could keep wow running for 20 more years when its down to 1 server and 1 player, but is it realistic to think it will run that long? not even...

    They have entirely dominated for 7 years with no end in site, no sign of slipping from the top of the list....and since EQ has been live for almost 11 years going into its 12th year....I think it is extremely reasonable to assume WoW will be a force for 20 years, and it would not be surprising if they stayed in the dominant position. Assuming other games stay in the normal 150k to 350k population, WoW would have to lose 95% of their population to equal other games....if they lost 90% they would still be 500k+ above the others....

    There are very reasonable scenarios which would keep WoW on top for 20 years.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by VikingGamer

    The great thing about 20 year predictions is that they take 20 years to disprove.

    Yep. So here's my prophecy, yes, you may take it as gospel: over 20 years we'll all be rich and fortunate and play in an WOW Next/Final EQ/GWorld of Darkness amalgamated Virtual Reality (see Tad Williams' Otherland).

     

    ... or the world has ended in 2012 and cockroaches rule the earth now, don't know yet which is certain, interference on the visions channels.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • ZaovrantarZaovrantar Member Posts: 85

    Originally posted by gaeanprayer

    Sorry, but no. Incarnations of WoW may continue existing and prospering for 20 years of more, similar to how Mario and Final Fantasy have continued for decades and still enjoy success. But WoW itself, no. If it lasted another 5 years I'd be shocked, and if it did it wouldn't be with the current playerbase. That's not about the game itself, but because technology improves in such leaps and bounds. Can you remember what the world was like 20 years ago? 1990. I was like, 7 years old. I don't even remember having access to a computer until many moons after that, and no decent one until my teens. Hell, in the early 90s people at that time were still enjoying their Super Nintendos and Gamegears.

    That any 'analyst' would claim that only makes it blatantly obvious how very little they know about technology, let alone technology specifically as applied to gaming. People who know nothing of what they speak of, should not speak.

    I agree with your first remarks.

    But Mario was not an MMO with a persistent on line world. World of Warcraft is a complete other beast to tame.

    Ask yourself one question: " Would you have thought back in "OLD" 2004 single processor and 5400 NVidia , that this game would be the most succesful video game in revenue in 2010 ?" (approx 1.4 billion dollars for this fiscal year alone).

    Of course not.

    The next technical Wow upgrade is only one patch away from those "collecting your non critical hardware data" you see when you log on. They can afford it.

     

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441

    Originally posted by Zorgo

    They have entirely dominated for 7 years with no end in site, no sign of slipping from the top of the list....and since EQ has been live for almost 11 years going into its 12th year....I think it is extremely reasonable to assume WoW will be a force for 20 years, and it would not be surprising if they stayed in the dominant position. Assuming other games stay in the normal 150k to 350k population, WoW would have to lose 95% of their population to equal other games....if they lost 90% they would still be 500k+ above the others....

    There are very reasonable scenarios which would keep WoW on top for 20 years.

    6 years last month actually. And while EQ is still around it is not a force to be count on after 12 years. There will be some fans that will play it until they close the servers but I hear very few people caring if EQ or UO release some content today.

    20 years is forever for computers, 20 years ago there wasn't even a net to talk about (some universities had it but no one else) and we have no idea where technology will take us for the next 20.

    But there is no reasonable scenario where any computer game stay on top for 25 years, none.

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