Sorry, but no. Incarnations of WoW may continue existing and prospering for 20 years of more, similar to how Mario and Final Fantasy have continued for decades and still enjoy success. But WoW itself, no. If it lasted another 5 years I'd be shocked, and if it did it wouldn't be with the current playerbase. That's not about the game itself, but because technology improves in such leaps and bounds. Can you remember what the world was like 20 years ago? 1990. I was like, 7 years old. I don't even remember having access to a computer until many moons after that, and no decent one until my teens. Hell, in the early 90s people at that time were still enjoying their Super Nintendos and Gamegears.
That any 'analyst' would claim that only makes it blatantly obvious how very little they know about technology, let alone technology specifically as applied to gaming. People who know nothing of what they speak of, should not speak.
You know, I read the original Eurogamer article and it sounded very different from the short text OP refers to.
6 years last month actually. And while EQ is still around it is not a force to be count on after 12 years. There will be some fans that will play it until they close the servers but I hear very few people caring if EQ or UO release some content today.
20 years is forever for computers, 20 years ago there wasn't even a net to talk about (some universities had it but no one else) and we have no idea where technology will take us for the next 20.
But there is no reasonable scenario where any computer game stay on top for 25 years, none.
You know how many bytes are still used in post Cata on the orginal WOW CD you buy for 5 Euro these days ?
Zero. An MMO is as old as its latest patch. Blizzard just demonstrated it 3 days ago.
I find that difficult to believe. I don't have anything against WoW and I'm not one of the paranoid psychotics that thinks it stole my MMO lunch, but 20 years is a bit excessive.
The article breaks the idea of 'reigning' into "...popularity, subscription numbers and cultural footprint." I certainly can't speak for everyone, but I get bored of a game, even a really good game, after a few months. I tend to play MMO's for longer simply because of my friends. Most of my friends that played WoW - even the few diehards that I actually met in the game - have all long since moved on. Some have gone back for the new expansion but I expect them to quit again, once the content is stale, as they had with the previous two. I just don't see the game retaining interest for players that long; certainly not in terms of either popularity or subscription numbers.
As for culture footprint, however, well, that's much harder to anticipate. There's little doubt WoW has become the industry benchmark, simply because a new game can't come out without developers discussing WoW - what they'll do like WoW, what they won't do like WoW - or players either constantly complaining about what isn't like WoW or constantly belittling those that make comparisons to it. It's simply inescapable. For the gaming culture in particular, WoW is simply a behemoth.
In that respect, it could easily be 20 years before another huge cultural footprint is made by an MMO like that again. But it's a total guessing game. It could be 50 years, it could be 2 years, there's simply no telling when a new pop-culture trend will come along to eclipse the last.
The morning sun has vanquished the horrible night.
My prediction for Blizzard in 20 years. The Blizzard store will be offering a Night Elf inspired fembot that can make sammichs, clean your house and do "other" tasks. Analysts at that time will predict that Blizzard will only be a few short years away from owning the whole planet and the human race will disappear 1 generation later.
I don't think the article assumes WoW will still have 11 million subscribers in 20 years. But, that it will probably be a large player in the MMO world 20 years later (like 1 million subscribers or something). I mean even UO is still running and getting updated it would be shocking if WoW isn't running for another 10 years at least.
6 years last month actually. And while EQ is still around it is not a force to be count on after 12 years. There will be some fans that will play it until they close the servers but I hear very few people caring if EQ or UO release some content today.
20 years is forever for computers, 20 years ago there wasn't even a net to talk about (some universities had it but no one else) and we have no idea where technology will take us for the next 20.
But there is no reasonable scenario where any computer game stay on top for 25 years, none.
You know how many bytes are still used in post Cata on the orginal WOW CD you buy for 5 Euro these days ?
Zero. An MMO is as old as its latest patch. Blizzard just demonstrated it 3 days ago.
That was a new one wasn't it ?
What you and some of the others using a similar argument are not realizing is how long a 20 year period of time is. Look at it this way, would you play the same game for 20 years? Even WoW lovers burn out and take breaks. The trend of gaming is also taking a huge turn towards more faster, action-packed combat (not entirely sure I approve of it, but I can deal with it), which is not what WoW is. I understand some of the endgame instances have bumped up the challenge to get the adrenaline pumping, but it's still a 'classic' MMO through and through. People are not going to play that for 2 decades.
The hardcore gamers are going to move on to newer, prettier MMOs. The casual gamers are NOT going to be playing video games for 20 years. Casual gamers are treating WoW like what it is, a game; eventually life will get in the way, or they'll get too old, or they'll just drop the video games for some new hobby.
WoW COULD change drastically and continue evolving with the times, but the problem is it will never be what newer games will be, those which will come out in the next few years, let alone those which have just recently started development using technology that boggles the mind. WoW could attempt to emulate and incorporate these trends, but it would risk alienating a large portion of whatever player-base it has left at that point. Furthermore, I don't see it attracting a whole lot of new attention should it do that - in attempt to replace a dwindling fan base with a larger, newer one - because of the bad taste WoW has left in the mouth of so many gamers. I'm not talking about the ones playing now, I'm talking about the ones that used to and no longer do, or those that avoid it like the plague all together.
It's possible the game will exist for 20 years, but if it did it would be a shadow of what it once was. Consider games like Diablo 1/2 and Lineage 1, they still have enough of a playerbase that servers are supported even so many years later, but they're of no real consequence to anyone else. It is far, FAR more likely Blizzard will shut the doors on WoW before 5 years is past, and reveal a newer, shinier MMO that will actually be a contender in the future MMO arena.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
I think wow will exist in the same way UO does for 20 years, but reign supreme...thats just silly. If it is still this big 20 years from now...all other MMO companies would be officially retarded. While I do enjoy wow now, unless there next xpack has a dramatic change in graphics and content, like 100Xs more then all previous combined, I can't see it being the king for more then 5 more years. I don't think any of the upcoming games will put much of a dent on wow, but it would be the beginning of the WoW Decline Era.
However, I can see Blizzard doing some dramatic change in the future, its not like they are stupid, if WoW gets a noticeable dent next year, expect the next xpack to be the most dramatic change in the history of games.
gambling. that could be the spoon that stirs the pot. a mmo that had both known games like poker and bj and one or two it dreams up. the gambling is on secure servers and anticheat like the real online poker places and is only for game money. sure you are going to have parents mad about their 12 year old playing texas holdem even if it for play money but scr&w the parents. it might even switch the gold famers into being semi pro and pro gamblers using the tables to make their gold. i can see the avg gamer having some gold and buying something at the auction house. next time he gets some money he gambles and loses it. grinds some more and goes back to the tables and wins. i can see gamers in this cycle of should i grind, should i gamble, should i upgrade,should i level, who are the real poker pros and who are the players worse than me. how to stop a player from losing a hand of poker on purpose to trade gold is something that would have to be worked out.
What you and some of the others using a similar argument are not realizing is how long a 20 year period of time is. Look at it this way, would you play the same game for 20 years? Even WoW lovers burn out and take breaks. The trend of gaming is also taking a huge turn towards more faster, action-packed combat (not entirely sure I approve of it, but I can deal with it), which is not what WoW is. I understand some of the endgame instances have bumped up the challenge to get the adrenaline pumping, but it's still a 'classic' MMO through and through. People are not going to play that for 2 decades.
The hardcore gamers are going to move on to newer, prettier MMOs. The casual gamers are NOT going to be playing video games for 20 years. Casual gamers are treating WoW like what it is, a game; eventually life will get in the way, or they'll get too old, or they'll just drop the video games for some new hobby.
WoW COULD change drastically and continue evolving with the times, but the problem is it will never be what newer games will be, those which will come out in the next few years, let alone those which have just recently started development using technology that boggles the mind. WoW could attempt to emulate and incorporate these trends, but it would risk alienating a large portion of whatever player-base it has left at that point. Furthermore, I don't see it attracting a whole lot of new attention should it do that - in attempt to replace a dwindling fan base with a larger, newer one - because of the bad taste WoW has left in the mouth of so many gamers. I'm not talking about the ones playing now, I'm talking about the ones that used to and no longer do, or those that avoid it like the plague all together.
It's possible the game will exist for 20 years, but if it did it would be a shadow of what it once was. Consider games like Diablo 1/2 and Lineage 1, they still have enough of a playerbase that servers are supported even so many years later, but they're of no real consequence to anyone else. It is far, FAR more likely Blizzard will shut the doors on WoW before 5 years is past, and reveal a newer, shinier MMO that will actually be a contender in the future MMO arena.
Like I said, I agree with most of your points. As I explained technology is not even an issue. You publish complete new games and engines through your clients these days and run scripts on your client/server PC's on "average hardware" checks to keep things going.
WOW was launched for a sub NVidia 5400 card and low end single 2003 processors. You now need a 650 NVidia and Multi core I5/I7 processors to have a decent 60+ frame rate in a city.
So now comes the "newer trends" argument. I only partly agree on that. You see millions of players are playing Monopoly or Risk for the first time in their lives. Millions of people never even heard of an M M O R B D or P "something" like that.
That's where you and I differ. We are not the center of this universe. We are noobs in about 3 million cultural things we know nothing about - but we are the elitists who know "all about MMO's". Don't "think" for the other 6 billion people on this planet. Most of the future MMO players are not even born yet, just like Mario, Risk and Monoply were 20 years ago.
No one will drop a 1 billion dollar baby. Count relaunch upon relaunch upon relaunch with ever newer technology and ever new born people.
That's life: I know that's hard to grasp, but the only ones dying is us. Very few succesful franchizes die these days. Certainly not when they bring in those foolish amounts of money.
Like I said, I agree with most of your points. As I explained technology is not even an issue. You publish complete new games and engines through your clients these days and run scripts on your client/server PC's on "average hardware" checks to keep things going.
WOW was launched for a sub NVidia 5400 card and low end single 2003 processors. You now need a 650 NVidia and Multi core I5/I7 processors to have a decent 60+ frame rate in a city.
So now comes the "newer trends" argument. I only partly agree on that. You see millions of players are playing Monopoly or Risk for the first time in their lives. Millions of people never even heard of an M M O R B D or P "something" like that.
That's where you and I differ. We are not the center of this universe. We are noobs in about 3 million cultural things we know nothing about - but we are the elitists who know "all about MMO's". Don't "think" for the other 6 billion people on this planet. Most of the future MMO players are not even born yet, just like Mario, Risk and Monoply were 20 years ago.
No one will drop a 1 billion dollar baby. Count relaunch upon relaunch upon relaunch with ever newer technology and ever new born people.
That's life: I know that's hard to grasp, but the only ones dying is us. Very few succesful franchizes die these days. Certainly not when they bring in those foolish amounts of money.
You're right. However the problem is you're now arguing a completely different point that has nothing to do with the original purpose of this topic or what I was saying in the first place.
This is not about whether WoW will continue to exist or not. I agree with you, no one is just going to drop it and ditch it until it's absolutely necessary. But it will NOT "reign" as was the original argument of this thread, and the article posted. The article claims it will still be top dog for another 20 years, which is just not going to happen. Yes Monopoly, Risk, Jenga, hell just regular playing cards are still loved and enjoyed worlwide.
They're just not reigning over anything.
EDIT: after re-reading I realized the first part sounded a little blunt and harsh. Not intended!
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
1. WOW floundered around 11.5M subscribers because it lost a ton in China when they closed servers and had no ex-pac for like 3 years. Many of the servers in the USA and EU have queues the past week.
2. If Bioware/EA fails with the new Star Wars project, it will basically mean the end of development for ANY major MMORPG for a long time. AOC lost 25M, Warhammer lost a crapload of money. The new Star Wars game is costing over 100M to make, it they don't even break even, there will never be another game of that size developed. Any success will come via the EVE model and will be niche and not mainstream.
3. Engines can be redone, graphics can be updated. Each expansion the graphics get drastically better in WOW, yet still can be played on nearly every machine.
It is insane to talk about anything computer related in 20 years. There is no way WOW will be king in 20 years because MMORPGs as we know them will not exist.. WOW does have the next 5 years wrapped up though. Star Wars is very polished, but a lot of people are saying it is just not fun because it is so slow to play.
1. WOW floundered around 11.5M subscribers because it lost a ton in China when they closed servers and had no ex-pac for like 3 years. Many of the servers in the USA and EU have queues the past week.
2. If Bioware/EA fails with the new Star Wars project, it will basically mean the end of development for ANY major MMORPG for a long time. AOC lost 25M, Warhammer lost a crapload of money. The new Star Wars game is costing over 100M to make, it they don't even break even, there will never be another game of that size developed. Any success will come via the EVE model and will be niche and not mainstream.
3. Engines can be redone, graphics can be updated. Each expansion the graphics get drastically better in WOW, yet still can be played on nearly every machine.
It is insane to talk about anything computer related in 20 years. There is no way WOW will be king in 20 years because MMORPGs as we know them will not exist.. WOW does have the next 5 years wrapped up though. Star Wars is very polished, but a lot of people are saying it is just not fun because it is so slow to play.
Drastically? Only thing noticeable for me between now and 3 years ago is the water. Even that's not amazing.
Technology will of course keep going however it will NOT increase at such a rediculous level that it has done in the past. Technology is slowing down. So who know's what will be what in 20 years.
The only people upset by that will be the ones that want to be max level as soon as possible.
Next year could very well cause major problems for WoW. We may have said this every year a big MMO comes out but theres a first time for everything. TOR, GW2, Rift and Tera are big MMO's. Much bigger than AoC/WAR since they are doing something very different. I'll honestly be suprised if WoW still has 12m sub's or whatever they are claiming at the moment by the end of 2012.
It not unreasonable, but it largely depends on how much capital Blizzard is willing to dump into the engine to keep it moderately competitive with current MMOs. At some point in the next 5-10 or so years, a major graphical overhaul is going to be needed.
Also, anyone saying WoW's graphics have improved drastically over the last 6 years is kidding themselves. Comparitively, Fallen Earth has made more graphical improvements on their engine in a year than Warcraft has in 6... and thats a company w/ a mere fraction of the developing power and capital. Blizzard has did an exceptionally poor job on improving graphics considering their resources, because they are afraid to increase system requirements (and that excuse only holds water for so long). Ultimately there is no reason they can't include optional high resolution textures and models to take better advantage of the user's computing power w/out harming low-end users.
Doesn't Maplestory have, like, 20 million subs? If we are talking about MMOs in US only then yes it's very likely that WoW wont have another MMO in the US touch those numbers but that's mainly because most other MMOs dont worry about other markets. WoW was made to run in any crappy computer easily so when it was spread throughout the world and it was no surprised that it was picked up.
Sure and Bill Gates thought we would never need more than how much RAM?
Short sited. In 20 years we won't even be using monitors. What computer did people even own at home 20 years ago. . . oh right. . and tech seems to ramp up exponentially.
Sure and Bill Gates thought we would never need more than how much RAM?
Short sited. In 20 years we won't even be using monitors.
By then we're all going to be using Biocomputers. WoW would be blessed to indulge in EQ1's current popularity by that point.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Technology will of course keep going however it will NOT increase at such a rediculous level that it has done in the past. Technology is slowing down. So who know's what will be what in 20 years.
Technology is not slowing down, in fact do we stand in front of a new revolution soon that ill blow your mind.
It is true that CPU speed have stood rather still for a while. The reason for that is that with the current technology speed gets too hot. But the processor speed are about to shrink making faster processor possible, and we just got the hexa cores. But that is not what will change most.
RAM and harddrives is the next revolution. We already seen the SSDs, they are faster but not a revolution. Samsung and IBM are however working on something that in a few years will replace ram and harddrive. Think of a combined harddrive and ram with say 10 TB, fast as a ram memory and larger than any current HD?
Think the games when you don't have to worry about making too large zones, no loading time, the only restriction is how much the CPU and GFX card can process?
Google is going the other way and will put everything on the net, we have to see how that works out for gamer.
GFX cards have been continuing as usual, in fact seems to be going pretty fast right now.
We will have awesome computers in 20 years, that memory thing is the beginning that is needed for virtual reality. People thought we would have it by now but the memory have been the huge problem there, just a great scan of yourself would take up a smaller harddrive and that is why a PC can't handle it yet. We might play VD games in 2030.
Hologram screens already exists (in fact Wow actually have drivers for it), but they are way to expensive yet. Basically do they look like a small table with hologram graphics in 3 D painted out. If that gets popular we might get MMOs designed just for it.
Other stuff didn't sell or work, like the smell card (really, the first one had 65 different smells, they showed it at E3 a few years ago).
The future is unknown but I would be very surprised if computers don't change as much as they have the last 20 years, Nano technology is already getting reality with the graf and no-one really knows what that will do to computers, but they will change. 26 years ago I just got my first C-64 with 64Kb ram, I couldn't even dream of a 8 Gb harddrive then (a buddy got a C-128 later with impressive 20 Mb harddrive) and now I have 8GB ram and it isn't that much now.
Wow 3 will surely be around in 20 years (based on Blizz other games like SC, WC and Diablo) and it probably will be rather popular but Wow will be played by the same type of dudes that have a Amiga today.
I remember they were saying we'd all be driving flying cars by year 2000.
Agreed. The result with Biocomputers are rather bad. Nano computers will be around (Processor technology with 12nm or less) and that is cool enough, but biocomputers is something that possibly might work for supercomputers, but not for a PC.
Imagine if your PC actually died? A Biocomputer uses bacterias and I don't see that in a home in 20 years.
Sure and Bill Gates thought we would never need more than how much RAM?
Short sited. In 20 years we won't even be using monitors.
By then we're all going to be using Biocomputers. WoW would be blessed to indulge in EQ1's current popularity by that point.
I'll believe it when I see it..
I remember they were saying we'd all be driving flying cars by year 2000.
yeah but look we have to cool sliding doors from starwars. . sure not as fast but have some faith. . Mind you I also have a pair of 3D glasses that plug into a video card I bought about 10 years or more ago (3DFX Voodoo). . so you never know I guess.
The couple of dudes that wrote both articles probably don't know the diff between Mario and WoW. Mario can last MORE 20 years, wow?... Blade & Soul, Dragon Ball Online, Tera Online |-) so huge the list -.-' not in the mood.
Am I the only one who read that article and took it to mean that no game will duplicate the success wow has had for the next 20 years?
I know the words used are open to interpretation, but it didn't seem to say that wow will still be the most popular active game in 20 years. It sort of reads that in 20 years time, not game will have had as much success as wow.
Sure and Bill Gates thought we would never need more than how much RAM?
Short sited. In 20 years we won't even be using monitors.
By then we're all going to be using Biocomputers. WoW would be blessed to indulge in EQ1's current popularity by that point.
Seems like a step backwards considering that's what our brains essentially are
But back to the point, in even five or 10 years things could will very likely change quite drastically with regards to computing power, capability, and how we interact with computers.
Comments
Simply dont believe that, its a cartoon game, no more
List of SOE lies
You know, I read the original Eurogamer article and it sounded very different from the short text OP refers to.
You know how many bytes are still used in post Cata on the orginal WOW CD you buy for 5 Euro these days ?
Zero. An MMO is as old as its latest patch. Blizzard just demonstrated it 3 days ago.
That was a new one wasn't it ?
I find that difficult to believe. I don't have anything against WoW and I'm not one of the paranoid psychotics that thinks it stole my MMO lunch, but 20 years is a bit excessive.
The article breaks the idea of 'reigning' into "...popularity, subscription numbers and cultural footprint." I certainly can't speak for everyone, but I get bored of a game, even a really good game, after a few months. I tend to play MMO's for longer simply because of my friends. Most of my friends that played WoW - even the few diehards that I actually met in the game - have all long since moved on. Some have gone back for the new expansion but I expect them to quit again, once the content is stale, as they had with the previous two. I just don't see the game retaining interest for players that long; certainly not in terms of either popularity or subscription numbers.
As for culture footprint, however, well, that's much harder to anticipate. There's little doubt WoW has become the industry benchmark, simply because a new game can't come out without developers discussing WoW - what they'll do like WoW, what they won't do like WoW - or players either constantly complaining about what isn't like WoW or constantly belittling those that make comparisons to it. It's simply inescapable. For the gaming culture in particular, WoW is simply a behemoth.
In that respect, it could easily be 20 years before another huge cultural footprint is made by an MMO like that again. But it's a total guessing game. It could be 50 years, it could be 2 years, there's simply no telling when a new pop-culture trend will come along to eclipse the last.
The morning sun has vanquished the horrible night.
My prediction for Blizzard in 20 years. The Blizzard store will be offering a Night Elf inspired fembot that can make sammichs, clean your house and do "other" tasks. Analysts at that time will predict that Blizzard will only be a few short years away from owning the whole planet and the human race will disappear 1 generation later.
All die, so die well.
I don't think the article assumes WoW will still have 11 million subscribers in 20 years. But, that it will probably be a large player in the MMO world 20 years later (like 1 million subscribers or something). I mean even UO is still running and getting updated it would be shocking if WoW isn't running for another 10 years at least.
What you and some of the others using a similar argument are not realizing is how long a 20 year period of time is. Look at it this way, would you play the same game for 20 years? Even WoW lovers burn out and take breaks. The trend of gaming is also taking a huge turn towards more faster, action-packed combat (not entirely sure I approve of it, but I can deal with it), which is not what WoW is. I understand some of the endgame instances have bumped up the challenge to get the adrenaline pumping, but it's still a 'classic' MMO through and through. People are not going to play that for 2 decades.
The hardcore gamers are going to move on to newer, prettier MMOs. The casual gamers are NOT going to be playing video games for 20 years. Casual gamers are treating WoW like what it is, a game; eventually life will get in the way, or they'll get too old, or they'll just drop the video games for some new hobby.
WoW COULD change drastically and continue evolving with the times, but the problem is it will never be what newer games will be, those which will come out in the next few years, let alone those which have just recently started development using technology that boggles the mind. WoW could attempt to emulate and incorporate these trends, but it would risk alienating a large portion of whatever player-base it has left at that point. Furthermore, I don't see it attracting a whole lot of new attention should it do that - in attempt to replace a dwindling fan base with a larger, newer one - because of the bad taste WoW has left in the mouth of so many gamers. I'm not talking about the ones playing now, I'm talking about the ones that used to and no longer do, or those that avoid it like the plague all together.
It's possible the game will exist for 20 years, but if it did it would be a shadow of what it once was. Consider games like Diablo 1/2 and Lineage 1, they still have enough of a playerbase that servers are supported even so many years later, but they're of no real consequence to anyone else. It is far, FAR more likely Blizzard will shut the doors on WoW before 5 years is past, and reveal a newer, shinier MMO that will actually be a contender in the future MMO arena.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
I think wow will exist in the same way UO does for 20 years, but reign supreme...thats just silly. If it is still this big 20 years from now...all other MMO companies would be officially retarded. While I do enjoy wow now, unless there next xpack has a dramatic change in graphics and content, like 100Xs more then all previous combined, I can't see it being the king for more then 5 more years. I don't think any of the upcoming games will put much of a dent on wow, but it would be the beginning of the WoW Decline Era.
However, I can see Blizzard doing some dramatic change in the future, its not like they are stupid, if WoW gets a noticeable dent next year, expect the next xpack to be the most dramatic change in the history of games.
-I want a Platformer MMO
gambling. that could be the spoon that stirs the pot. a mmo that had both known games like poker and bj and one or two it dreams up. the gambling is on secure servers and anticheat like the real online poker places and is only for game money. sure you are going to have parents mad about their 12 year old playing texas holdem even if it for play money but scr&w the parents. it might even switch the gold famers into being semi pro and pro gamblers using the tables to make their gold. i can see the avg gamer having some gold and buying something at the auction house. next time he gets some money he gambles and loses it. grinds some more and goes back to the tables and wins. i can see gamers in this cycle of should i grind, should i gamble, should i upgrade,should i level, who are the real poker pros and who are the players worse than me. how to stop a player from losing a hand of poker on purpose to trade gold is something that would have to be worked out.
Like I said, I agree with most of your points. As I explained technology is not even an issue. You publish complete new games and engines through your clients these days and run scripts on your client/server PC's on "average hardware" checks to keep things going.
WOW was launched for a sub NVidia 5400 card and low end single 2003 processors. You now need a 650 NVidia and Multi core I5/I7 processors to have a decent 60+ frame rate in a city.
So now comes the "newer trends" argument. I only partly agree on that. You see millions of players are playing Monopoly or Risk for the first time in their lives. Millions of people never even heard of an M M O R B D or P "something" like that.
That's where you and I differ. We are not the center of this universe. We are noobs in about 3 million cultural things we know nothing about - but we are the elitists who know "all about MMO's". Don't "think" for the other 6 billion people on this planet. Most of the future MMO players are not even born yet, just like Mario, Risk and Monoply were 20 years ago.
No one will drop a 1 billion dollar baby. Count relaunch upon relaunch upon relaunch with ever newer technology and ever new born people.
That's life: I know that's hard to grasp, but the only ones dying is us. Very few succesful franchizes die these days. Certainly not when they bring in those foolish amounts of money.
You're right. However the problem is you're now arguing a completely different point that has nothing to do with the original purpose of this topic or what I was saying in the first place.
This is not about whether WoW will continue to exist or not. I agree with you, no one is just going to drop it and ditch it until it's absolutely necessary. But it will NOT "reign" as was the original argument of this thread, and the article posted. The article claims it will still be top dog for another 20 years, which is just not going to happen. Yes Monopoly, Risk, Jenga, hell just regular playing cards are still loved and enjoyed worlwide.
They're just not reigning over anything.
EDIT: after re-reading I realized the first part sounded a little blunt and harsh. Not intended!
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
Just to throw some 'facts' out
1. WOW floundered around 11.5M subscribers because it lost a ton in China when they closed servers and had no ex-pac for like 3 years. Many of the servers in the USA and EU have queues the past week.
2. If Bioware/EA fails with the new Star Wars project, it will basically mean the end of development for ANY major MMORPG for a long time. AOC lost 25M, Warhammer lost a crapload of money. The new Star Wars game is costing over 100M to make, it they don't even break even, there will never be another game of that size developed. Any success will come via the EVE model and will be niche and not mainstream.
3. Engines can be redone, graphics can be updated. Each expansion the graphics get drastically better in WOW, yet still can be played on nearly every machine.
It is insane to talk about anything computer related in 20 years. There is no way WOW will be king in 20 years because MMORPGs as we know them will not exist.. WOW does have the next 5 years wrapped up though. Star Wars is very polished, but a lot of people are saying it is just not fun because it is so slow to play.
Drastically? Only thing noticeable for me between now and 3 years ago is the water. Even that's not amazing.
Technology will of course keep going however it will NOT increase at such a rediculous level that it has done in the past. Technology is slowing down. So who know's what will be what in 20 years.
The only people upset by that will be the ones that want to be max level as soon as possible.
Next year could very well cause major problems for WoW. We may have said this every year a big MMO comes out but theres a first time for everything. TOR, GW2, Rift and Tera are big MMO's. Much bigger than AoC/WAR since they are doing something very different. I'll honestly be suprised if WoW still has 12m sub's or whatever they are claiming at the moment by the end of 2012.
It not unreasonable, but it largely depends on how much capital Blizzard is willing to dump into the engine to keep it moderately competitive with current MMOs. At some point in the next 5-10 or so years, a major graphical overhaul is going to be needed.
Also, anyone saying WoW's graphics have improved drastically over the last 6 years is kidding themselves. Comparitively, Fallen Earth has made more graphical improvements on their engine in a year than Warcraft has in 6... and thats a company w/ a mere fraction of the developing power and capital. Blizzard has did an exceptionally poor job on improving graphics considering their resources, because they are afraid to increase system requirements (and that excuse only holds water for so long). Ultimately there is no reason they can't include optional high resolution textures and models to take better advantage of the user's computing power w/out harming low-end users.
If we are talking about MMOs in US only then yes it's very likely that WoW wont have another MMO in the US touch those numbers but that's mainly because most other MMOs dont worry about other markets. WoW was made to run in any crappy computer easily so when it was spread throughout the world and it was no surprised that it was picked up.
WoW Sidequests
This is a rather creepy prospect. Scary that the game might be the focus of for some people's lives for more than 20 years is beyond disturbing.
Sure and Bill Gates thought we would never need more than how much RAM?
Short sited. In 20 years we won't even be using monitors. What computer did people even own at home 20 years ago. . . oh right. . and tech seems to ramp up exponentially.
Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!
By then we're all going to be using Biocomputers. WoW would be blessed to indulge in EQ1's current popularity by that point.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
I'll believe it when I see it..
I remember they were saying we'd all be driving flying cars by year 2000.
Technology is not slowing down, in fact do we stand in front of a new revolution soon that ill blow your mind.
It is true that CPU speed have stood rather still for a while. The reason for that is that with the current technology speed gets too hot. But the processor speed are about to shrink making faster processor possible, and we just got the hexa cores. But that is not what will change most.
RAM and harddrives is the next revolution. We already seen the SSDs, they are faster but not a revolution. Samsung and IBM are however working on something that in a few years will replace ram and harddrive. Think of a combined harddrive and ram with say 10 TB, fast as a ram memory and larger than any current HD?
Think the games when you don't have to worry about making too large zones, no loading time, the only restriction is how much the CPU and GFX card can process?
Google is going the other way and will put everything on the net, we have to see how that works out for gamer.
GFX cards have been continuing as usual, in fact seems to be going pretty fast right now.
We will have awesome computers in 20 years, that memory thing is the beginning that is needed for virtual reality. People thought we would have it by now but the memory have been the huge problem there, just a great scan of yourself would take up a smaller harddrive and that is why a PC can't handle it yet. We might play VD games in 2030.
Hologram screens already exists (in fact Wow actually have drivers for it), but they are way to expensive yet. Basically do they look like a small table with hologram graphics in 3 D painted out. If that gets popular we might get MMOs designed just for it.
Other stuff didn't sell or work, like the smell card (really, the first one had 65 different smells, they showed it at E3 a few years ago).
The future is unknown but I would be very surprised if computers don't change as much as they have the last 20 years, Nano technology is already getting reality with the graf and no-one really knows what that will do to computers, but they will change. 26 years ago I just got my first C-64 with 64Kb ram, I couldn't even dream of a 8 Gb harddrive then (a buddy got a C-128 later with impressive 20 Mb harddrive) and now I have 8GB ram and it isn't that much now.
Wow 3 will surely be around in 20 years (based on Blizz other games like SC, WC and Diablo) and it probably will be rather popular but Wow will be played by the same type of dudes that have a Amiga today.
Agreed. The result with Biocomputers are rather bad. Nano computers will be around (Processor technology with 12nm or less) and that is cool enough, but biocomputers is something that possibly might work for supercomputers, but not for a PC.
Imagine if your PC actually died? A Biocomputer uses bacterias and I don't see that in a home in 20 years.
yeah but look we have to cool sliding doors from starwars. . sure not as fast but have some faith. . Mind you I also have a pair of 3D glasses that plug into a video card I bought about 10 years or more ago (3DFX Voodoo). . so you never know I guess.
Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!
The couple of dudes that wrote both articles probably don't know the diff between Mario and WoW. Mario can last MORE 20 years, wow?... Blade & Soul, Dragon Ball Online, Tera Online |-) so huge the list -.-' not in the mood.
Am I the only one who read that article and took it to mean that no game will duplicate the success wow has had for the next 20 years?
I know the words used are open to interpretation, but it didn't seem to say that wow will still be the most popular active game in 20 years. It sort of reads that in 20 years time, not game will have had as much success as wow.
Seems like a step backwards considering that's what our brains essentially are
But back to the point, in even five or 10 years things could will very likely change quite drastically with regards to computing power, capability, and how we interact with computers.