It is simple, just predict how many subscribers you think Rift will have at launch. I know it is more about retaining subscribers over a period of time but this is just for fun.
The game is not everyones cup of tea. That said there is good polish, the game itself is a decent game and there are many people looking for something esle beside WoW while they wait for other games (SW;ToR,GW2 & others) to be released this year.
With the PvP beta going this weekend i think either alot more will be interested and willing to play until these other games are released.
Well, for sake of arguement, I will call "subs at launch" the number of players in the first 30 days (or box sales) . . . which I expect to be around 750k. I expect that they will settle in at 350K after 6 months. If patches and updates come regularly and address the things the community wants I think that the subs after 1 year would rise slightly to 400-450k. If there is an expansion at the 18 month mark (no alter than 24 months) those numbers might increase again slightly to 500k.
Dude smooth beta launch? I was in the first beta event and let me tell u it was shitastic man. I'm runnin a very high end computer and could barely break 30fps at max......thats brutle. Your character feels clunky and not smooth. Welcome to everquest all over again with new age graphics....wait a min..new age graphics? their game engine is dated and crap! and come release there is not much their devs can do to optomize that horrid monstrosity. I had high hopes for this game, trust mw was a fanboi no doubt.
Dude smooth beta launch? I was in the first beta event and let me tell u it was shitastic man. I'm runnin a very high end computer and could barely break 30fps at max......thats brutle. Your character feels clunky and not smooth. Welcome to everquest all over again with new age graphics....wait a min..new age graphics? their game engine is dated and crap! and come release there is not much their devs can do to optomize that horrid monstrosity. I had high hopes for this game, trust mw was a fanboi no doubt.
This game wont even put a dent in WOW's subs. This game will not sustain numbers as well. Mark my words.
250k at launch. 150k after 6 months. To be succesfull with a sub these days you really have to be offering something extraordinary, and Rift is just too ordinary to be succesfull that way. Atleast from what we've seen in beta.
Rift's sub number, I think depend on four major things. First, how quickly do people level up (I know you mean at launch so I am using that to say the first 30 days), how fun it is and how the end game is, something we will not see in beta. If people level too fast and grow bored quickly, numbers will fall off even quicker due to the "been there, done that" feel. Second, it depends on the quality of the PVP. If PVP isn't fun or is all an e-sport (ala WOW), then PVP'ers will leave the game too. Third, and most importantly, how bored will the longtime WOW player be come March 1st. I think its obvious that they are targeting the same player as WOW but moreso the current/longterm player of WOW. If Cata is growing old for most by then (especially the raiding and PVP aspects), then I think Rift will have higher numbers. If people are still addicted, err, playing WOW at that point it will have less. Lastly, what will launch be like. If its as smooth as beta, then great. If not, people may not be convinced to hang around and wait for them to fix things. Great PVP, bored WOW players and a smooth launch...I think we could see 500-750k players soon after launch. Bad PVP and a bad launch, I think they will be lucky to break 250k. Bad PVP, bad launch and they cannot convince WOW players to try the game, I think they will be lucky to break 100k. With that said, I personally think it will be in the 500k range within the first 30 days and then slowly grow over time and top off around 750k players. I have a lot of faith in the game and the devs. The question is of course retention and all we can do is hope and pray and wait and see.
All the OP asked for was a number not an analysis. That being said I'll confidently say 1.6 million worldwide.
After a couple of months of being released, I would guess about 100k. I would be surprised if it maintains 200k or above. It just isn't different enough from what we've already had, just feels very generic to me. I will give it credit though it seems pretty polished and runs well so maybe it will retain more. I just can't see it retaining many MMO vets who have been around for a while, this game will need people who are new to the genre imo.
Considering there is not a P2P MMO besides WoW that has more than 200k North American subs, 200-300k sustained subs would be pretty nice if not amazing.
It is simple, just predict how many subscribers you think Rift will have at launch. I know it is more about retaining subscribers over a period of time but this is just for fun.
I think Rift will have 500,000 subs at launch.
I'd agree, though it will all be about those having fun, and really enjoying the game. If they hit or exceed 500,000 and can retain that many, then its twice as many as most other mainstream mmo's on the market today.
Some people think that a game can easily pull 1 million nowadays....
WoW had 6 years to pull 10 mill, in an age that competition was very thin...
Something have to be really good and new to achieve the mark of millions nowaday
I think this is the most realistic way of looking at things. The industry is in a drastically different state than it was when WoW hit the scene. In my opinion it's going to take a lot more than a really good "WoW-like" game to achieve anything that would be considered impressive.
I expect to see the subs (6 months post launch) at around the level that LotRO had before going F2P. It should do well, but not much more. I'm certainly not anticipating fireworks with this title.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Some people think that a game can easily pull 1 million nowadays....
WoW had 6 years to pull 10 mill, in an age that competition was very thin...
Something have to be really good and new to achieve the mark of millions nowaday
Yes, but do not forget most of WoW player where none MMO'ers the genre did grow. So it might be easier to market games now, with website like these. I doubt this game will reach 1 million active subs. I am sure they might have 1 million account at one point, but do not believe active subs. The game will have a healty playerbase and more then enough for Trion to pay investors and invest into there other projects. Maybe even start a new one. This company is a great one. There games are innovating (Well the Syfy and RTS projects are, Rift to a lesser extend) and from what I have seen from Rift they deliver polished games.
The game is solid, interesting and not WoW. The latter might attract people initially (wanting something new)...until they realise it is not WoW (Missing there guilds, end-game, etc) and go back to that game.
Originally posted by Cecropia
I expect to see the subs (6 months post launch) at around the level that LotRO had before going F2P. It should do well, but not much more. I'm certainly not anticipating fireworks with this title.
I really think this game might be there money milking machine. It is a fun game, but not as innovating or risky as there other projects appear to be. This one seems to be the saver bet and ensure that even if one of the other project fail the company should survive the blow. Smart way of doing business!
75-100K at launch. Ghost town in 6 months, forced to free to play. Shut down aftwer SWTOR crushes it under lock step.
Lol..thanks for your insane predictions. I should make this my new signature though. It will fit perfectly with other insane comment in my signature.
Who could have thought that WOW could bring super power like USA to its knees?
Originally posted by Arcken
To put it in a nutshell, our society is about to hit the fan, grades are dropping, obesity is going up,childhood the USA is going to lose its super power status before too long, but hey, as long as we have a cheap method to babysit our kids, all will be well no? Im picking on WoW btw because its the beast that made all of this possible
Comments
My guess is that it will be similar to LOTRO.. so something like 300k.. it will go down to like 150k after a few years and they will make it F2P.
Remember Old School Ultima Online
The game is not everyones cup of tea. That said there is good polish, the game itself is a decent game and there are many people looking for something esle beside WoW while they wait for other games (SW;ToR,GW2 & others) to be released this year.
With the PvP beta going this weekend i think either alot more will be interested and willing to play until these other games are released.
So 500k. Decent PvP 750k - 1 mill
I'm guessing around 500k at launch, and drop down to 150-200k six months later and substain that.
Currently Playing: DAOC Uthgard
Previously Played: UO, DAOC, Shadowbane, AC2, SWG, Horizons, COX, WOW, EQ2, LOTRO, AOC, WAR, Vanguard, Rift, SWTOR, ESO, GW2.
Well, for sake of arguement, I will call "subs at launch" the number of players in the first 30 days (or box sales) . . . which I expect to be around 750k. I expect that they will settle in at 350K after 6 months. If patches and updates come regularly and address the things the community wants I think that the subs after 1 year would rise slightly to 400-450k. If there is an expansion at the 18 month mark (no alter than 24 months) those numbers might increase again slightly to 500k.
Gaming since Avalon Hill was making board games.
Played SWG, EVE, Fallen Earth, LOTRO, Rift, Vanguard, WoW, SWTOR, TSW, Tera
Tried Aoc, Aion, EQII, RoM, Vindictus, Darkfail, DDO, GW, PotBS
This is at ELI...
Dude smooth beta launch? I was in the first beta event and let me tell u it was shitastic man. I'm runnin a very high end computer and could barely break 30fps at max......thats brutle. Your character feels clunky and not smooth. Welcome to everquest all over again with new age graphics....wait a min..new age graphics? their game engine is dated and crap! and come release there is not much their devs can do to optomize that horrid monstrosity. I had high hopes for this game, trust mw was a fanboi no doubt.
This game wont even put a dent in WOW's subs. This game will not sustain numbers as well. Mark my words.
200k at launch.
50k when the first month is over.
250k at launch. 150k after 6 months. To be succesfull with a sub these days you really have to be offering something extraordinary, and Rift is just too ordinary to be succesfull that way. Atleast from what we've seen in beta.
All the OP asked for was a number not an analysis. That being said I'll confidently say 1.6 million worldwide.After a couple of months of being released, I would guess about 100k. I would be surprised if it maintains 200k or above. It just isn't different enough from what we've already had, just feels very generic to me. I will give it credit though it seems pretty polished and runs well so maybe it will retain more. I just can't see it retaining many MMO vets who have been around for a while, this game will need people who are new to the genre imo.
Initial isn't as important as retention. I think they'll be lucky to keep 100k.
Considering there is not a P2P MMO besides WoW that has more than 200k North American subs, 200-300k sustained subs would be pretty nice if not amazing.
I'd agree, though it will all be about those having fun, and really enjoying the game. If they hit or exceed 500,000 and can retain that many, then its twice as many as most other mainstream mmo's on the market today.
500k at launch. Will settle to anywhere from 90k - 150k
Similiar to warhammer...slightly higher tho after a few years...
i say 550k start
200k after 1st month
75-125k after 6months
F2P in 2years
playing: Dragon Age
Waiting: for FF14, Mass Effect
Want to try: Fallen Earth
Some people think that a game can easily pull 1 million nowadays....
WoW had 6 years to pull 10 mill, in an age that competition was very thin...
Something have to be really good and new to achieve the mark of millions nowaday
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
I think this is the most realistic way of looking at things. The industry is in a drastically different state than it was when WoW hit the scene. In my opinion it's going to take a lot more than a really good "WoW-like" game to achieve anything that would be considered impressive.
I expect to see the subs (6 months post launch) at around the level that LotRO had before going F2P. It should do well, but not much more. I'm certainly not anticipating fireworks with this title.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Yes, but do not forget most of WoW player where none MMO'ers the genre did grow. So it might be easier to market games now, with website like these. I doubt this game will reach 1 million active subs. I am sure they might have 1 million account at one point, but do not believe active subs. The game will have a healty playerbase and more then enough for Trion to pay investors and invest into there other projects. Maybe even start a new one. This company is a great one. There games are innovating (Well the Syfy and RTS projects are, Rift to a lesser extend) and from what I have seen from Rift they deliver polished games.
The game is solid, interesting and not WoW. The latter might attract people initially (wanting something new)...until they realise it is not WoW (Missing there guilds, end-game, etc) and go back to that game.
I really think this game might be there money milking machine. It is a fun game, but not as innovating or risky as there other projects appear to be. This one seems to be the saver bet and ensure that even if one of the other project fail the company should survive the blow. Smart way of doing business!
Around 350k-500k at launch and it will settle into 150k-250k subs
Playing: Rift, LotRO
Waiting on: GW2, BP
75-100K at launch. Ghost town in 6 months, forced to free to play. Shut down aftwer SWTOR crushes it under lock step.
Lol..thanks for your insane predictions. I should make this my new signature though. It will fit perfectly with other insane comment in my signature.
Who could have thought that WOW could bring super power like USA to its knees?
Originally posted by Arcken
To put it in a nutshell, our society is about to hit the fan, grades are dropping, obesity is going up,childhood the USA is going to lose its super power status before too long, but hey, as long as we have a cheap method to babysit our kids, all will be well no?
Im picking on WoW btw because its the beast that made all of this possible
First month box sales: 750k - 1 mil
Subscribers after the free month: 500k