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Upcoming MMORPG subscriber base effecting World of Warcraft.
sayuri2006
Member Posts: 161
Greetings,
I'm just browsing around and a really interesting question came into my mind. I want to know what you all think how these upcoming MMORPGs will affect the World of Warcraft subscriber base:
-Rift: Planes of Telara
-SW:TOR
-Earthrise
-The Secret World
-Guild Wars 2
-Tera
I am curious to know what these major players will do to the WoW subscriber numbers and what u think will be a likely result.
Will it be that WoW will still have a strong customer base, or will they lose 50%, even more? Will these titles make no dent into the subscriber numbers? Do you think enough people will know about these games and will they want to give them a go?
Comments
There might be a little dip in WoWs number at the launch of each game, but a good portion will probably head straight back to WoW.
They'll do the same thing to WoW that every other AAA title that has come out in WoW's lifetime has done. Absolutely nothing. WAR did nothing, AoC did nothing, even Aion did nothing (and that one has actually done pretty well with its subscriber base). People made these same posts years ago, and last year, and they'll make this post next year, for some unknown reason.
Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.
Really? This question jsut popped in your head? You don't think this topic "popped in your head" after viewing teh hundred of same threads in almost every one of these game forums?
But I will still answer.
With every major game release, the hit that wow takes will get worse. Wow is getting older and the community is getting moreunstable. Deos this mean by the end of the year Wow will have 50% less subs? Heck no. But you will see a pretty major dip. I'm guessing 10% or so.
-Rift: Planes of Telara - Some damage
-SW:TOR - quite abit damage
-Earthrise - No damage
-The Secret World - No damage
-Guild Wars 2 - No damage (Has no sub, people will play both)
-Tera - little damage
This is how I see it going. Rift will take some WoW players, but not a "killing" amount. SW:TOR will pull a lot of attention, its Star Wars, its new, its interesting and has alot of hype behind it. Earthrise has had nothing but bad press. Secret World is shared with consoles so wont do that well - No game shared with a console has REALLY done well compared to WoW. GW2 as I said is f2p so people will just play both. Tera is new and shiney but not enough to distract people from WoW.
This is my opinion of how I see things going.
I dont know, i think that GW2 will not hurt WoW, its b2p and will be played beside other mmos.
All other games together may reach >2 million western subs the first few months and its unpredictable what happens after.
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1 to 3 % is the most wow might loose if you take into account it has 12 millions players and those new games are able to gain 100k to 150k players .
it pretty hard to hurt wow numbers most players just flock back to wow
Well, I can almost guarantee SWTOR will ahve at least a millions subs at launch and even is the crappiest game on earth will at least keep 500k after the first few months.
I think WoW itself is affecting their subscribers more than other games are or will. At least that is the impression I'm getting.
-Rift: Little effect.
-SW:TOR A fairly large effect
-Earthrise None.
-The Secret World None.
-Guild Wars 2 Small effect if any.
-Tera Little effect if people don't like combat system.
My take on the: "WoW has not been affected by the MMORPGs been released before (like VG:SOH/AOC/AION/WAR) and will not be affected much by these new titles coming out" is that I don't personally believe that these games are in the same league as the ones coming out.
My reasoning being: One of them had a really bad start...it's only finding it's head now. Another designed both in content and in audience for the Asian market. Another one is too PVP centric for the mass appeal of PVE players. The last despite a bad start due to lack of content, esp in endgame, and performance reqs for the time of release has not enough history against it's name.
Lol, I am not trying to do a comparison between these games and the ones being released but I will bet my top dollar that as we roll into 2011 and the dynamics of MMORPGs are changing, people want more and there is alot of hype for these titles coming out, alot more than there has ever been.
This is coming from someone that was severely scarred from the Dark and Light days.
i personally think GW2 and SWTOR might actually do some damage to WoWs numbers, depending alot on how good the games will be on release, but either way WoW is getting old and time doesnt stop.
I m not sure if Cata already turned off some players.
Then with GW 2 some guys will just not play other game with sub, as GW 2 will keep then busy. Looks like very many waiting for it.
Rift: less sure as it WoW-like game, so may be at the first time ppl will try new game, but then...who knows.
SW: TOR will get may be more fans as it different game style.
2 others to me are less important for WoW subs.
Only IMO for sure
try before buy, even if it's a game to avoid bad surprises.
Worst surprises for me: Aion, GW2
I believe that in the beginning Rift will most likely have a grab because people are tired of the Devs in Wow and the stagnance of the game. If Rift devs continue down the path of emplimenting community requests continually after launch they could very well be the next big thing at least for fantasy based players.
SWTOR will have the most pull. I don't see TOR having a lasting effect on the gaming community as they have yet to reveal their plans for common mmo needs like mailboxes, auction house, you know the basics.
Earthrise will definitely get the pvpers in my opinion as they have a generalized skill system based on usage.
It's hard to say, it seems as though players in WoW have a pretty steady turnover rate. The population stays in the same area I just don't see it being the same people, so those that get tired of WoW will move on and new players will probably start with WoW as it's the most advertised/well-known or at least they did.
The only monkeywrench for this is the buy-in.for a brand new player, just checking Amazon for the battlechest, WotLK, and Cata is over $100. Pretty ridiculous compared to upcoming games releasing at half that price.
Untrue. Why would I pay for something I don't play? When I play GW2, no one gets my sub.
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky
Considering that each mmo has a retention rate, that means that there is a considerably bigger amount of ex-wow players than active wow players out there. These new games really don't need to touch the active subscription base. All they need to do is to entice the dormant ex-subscription base.
I agree with people who posted before me, and want to add that most WoW players doesn't have even heard of these new games coming up this year.
MMORPGS are a 11 out of a dozen.. There are so many , and so many coming out every year. All the old WoW players will go and try the new games. Some people will like GW2 some Will like Rift and some will like SWTOR. Point being no one game will make a massive diffrence in WoW's subs. In any case Blizzard is doing a fine job on there own in losing subs. I hit 85 with 3 toons in less than 2 weeks. Bought a new PC 2 weeks ago and gave my old one to a family member and have yet installed WoW on the thing. Probably wont anytime soon.
Following this logic, any game can 'damage' WoW.
Not many people will have more than 1 sub to an MMO but many will have 1 MMO sub and other games.
I don't see the next Call of Duty affecting WoW numbers or the next Fifa game either.
Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
No point in writing twice the same stuff so i am quoting my reply to a similar post:
Let's assume that because of the foretold reasons WoW looses 50% of his active subs. 50% is a huge number yes? Guess what... it will still be the most successful MMO subscription wise, light years ahead from the #2. So, no WoW isn't and won't be in trouble.
And in case someone draws the "fanboy" card, i wrote "..most sccussful MMO subscription wise". I didn't mention anything about quality or features. Although i am an active subscriber since 2005.
You are not following his logic, GW2 is an mmo not a few 5 minute matches against barcelona.
If GW2 offer me the same enjoyment as an sub based mmo why would i continue my subscription with that game that i would barely touch anymore?
So does this mean WoW is considered the most 'enjoyment filled MMO' for the vast majority of MMO players right now?
Just because of the payment system of B2P I think it'll be similar to GW1 where most WOW players who do play GW will play it but also keep their WoW subs.
I certainly did and I can't see that changing.
Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
alot of people nowadays sub to more than 1 game. my wife and i are looking forward to rift and shes looking forward to tor but we will still keep our subs to wow. im sure there are alot of players like us. its not always an either or. sometimes its both.
Where did i say that WOW is? i didnt even mention the game. i was talking sub based mmo's in general
Just because its B2P dusnt mean i have to continue my subscription from another game.
When i played GW1 i didnt sub for another game same will go for GW2.
Not saying 'you' personally but in MMO players generally.
I'm sure GW2 will do well cause GW1 did well. But because of the payment system many WoW players will play both cause they'll treat it like another B2P game. Like Dragon Age/Two worlds/Dead Space2 etc.
Here's my logic: When GW first came out the WoW sub numbers didn't get affected and the subsequent exp (Night fall/ Eyes to the north etc) only increased GW's popularity. But it was completely separate from WoW as WoW's sub numbers increased too.
This can be due to many factors but for me it was the fact I treated GW like another Non-MMO game due to B2P.
Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.