If it sells 500k I'll be surprised. {Mod Edit - stay on topic, please} Let the zealous fans defend it all they want...it is what it is and in 6 months or even less it be lucky to retain 50k to 75k players if that.
There are zealous fans that is true, but then their are the zealous haters who make sure to take time out of their busy lives to post on every single thread about the game they hate how much they hate it and it and how it will crash and burn. LoL
If it sells 500k I'll be surprised. {Mod Edit - stay on topic, please} Let the zealous fans defend it all they want...it is what it is and in 6 months or even less it be lucky to retain 50k to 75k players if that.
There are zealous fans that is true, but then their are the zealous haters who make sure to take time out of their busy lives to post on every single thread about the game they hate how much they hate it and it and how it will crash and burn. LoL
I can think of 2 reasons for that:
Rift being popular at this time, topics about Rift are showing up in the 'Current Forum Activity' window on front page.
The 'zealous haters' baits are very effective, and the 'zealous fans' keep falling for that.
Clearly this game is selling a million copies minimum. Not sure if will retain them all but games between now and when GW2 and SWTOR release don't look good so they have a 6 month window to impress people. Noone here really knows how the end game will play out so to suggest that people will get bored of Rifts is just people trying to hate. I'm sure the same people will go on and on about how boring WoW is, which may be true but it still has 12 million subs.
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
I hope this is the case. But I haven't seen any shelves even showing the preorder boxes like other games where I live. I found this to be very odd and hope they at least fill the shelves once the game comes out.
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
It will be 500k+ pretty easy after a month. They are marketing it pretty well on websites and having a pretty crowded Closed beta for two months has helped quite a bit.
What are you really asking, will Trion be able to sustain RIFT in the long run, or maintain itself? So are you asking if it's going to be a success? I would think that exact sales figures really won't matter. I see no difference in how this game will play out if they sell 700k copies, verses 2.2m copies.
Is there any reasoning behind having us guess?
I predict that after 1 year, Rift will have at least 1 million subscribers. Until everquest comes out.
"No they are not charity. That is where the whales come in. (I play for free. Whales pays.) Devs get a business. That is how it works."
Near 1 mill sales... Aoc did, WAR did, Aion did... so i dont see why Rift wont, the game is not an amateur bugfest.
There are a ton of MMO jumpers in today market, they will buy it play the free month or two max. and left it to hype the next one, then .. rinse and repeat
300k to 400k in the first few months. There is no way it is going to outsell AOC or Warhammer for their first few months (about 1 million each). Those games had HUGE IPs, HUGE marketing budgets and were coming from developed companies. AS much as people in this forum like to live in a small world.. for most gamers, Rift isn´t even on the radar. It isn´t advertised much outside of a few fansites.. it just is a small fish right now.
I´m not a hater though. while those games (aoc, warhammer) both started at 1 million, they both fell to 200k within the first few months. I think because of the openess of Rifts beta (people who buy it probably have a really good idea what they are getting as opposed to AOC which was a rip off) Rift will have a MUCH higher retention rate at least for the first few months. I honestly expect 300k sales the first month and 400k to 500k players after 3 months. The game will climb for two reasons... first, word of mouth from current players will be good and because retention rates will be high.... also, there are a LOT of people that will never buy a MMORPG for the first month because of AOC and Warhammer. Expect a lot of those burned players to jump into Rift after a month or two.
The big question is what happens after 3 months when the majority of players are at max level and playing new content. Will the devs be able to make a viable game at max level?
It is very difficult to predict such things. It is also very difficult to know the figures to base such predictions on. Certainly nowaday. The number of subscribers on their forums say something about the number of people interested in joining open beta. That number is close to 150.000, which, one might say is not that high for an AAA title. Hype on this site for this game is relatively high, but outside the specialized mmorpg sites the awareness about this game is not very high. A good advertising campaigne and a positive buzz from the open beta might do wonders, but to what extend.
Now, I expext the sales to be higher than 250.000 in the first week, which will include pre-order sales. The sales might reach 500,000 in the first month world wide, but it does not seem very likely. So somewhere below that. Based upon? My best guess, but since I guess it is anybody's guess I would love to be right about this.
Without being able to play the endgame, I can't really say retention rates:
Here are my anecdotal observations:
1) Popular guilds from long dead games like aion,warhammer, daoc are coming back
2) Old guild members are coming back in droves after the last beta.
3) Recruiting is a breeze for this game. Our guild has about 5 news apps daily. Much easier than any other game.
This tells me it's polished and fun (at least the first 35 levels). WIth the endgame only time will tell. But I know for sure there are multiple dungeons and 20 man raid with finished content. A T2 raid is scheduled a month after launch. Lets just hope the endgame is fun.
300k to 400k in the first few months. There is no way it is going to outsell AOC or Warhammer for their first few months (about 1 million each). Those games had HUGE IPs, HUGE marketing budgets and were coming from developed companies. AS much as people in this forum like to live in a small world.. for most gamers, Rift isn´t even on the radar. It isn´t advertised much outside of a few fansites.. it just is a small fish right now.
I´m not a hater though. while those games (aoc, warhammer) both started at 1 million, they both fell to 200k within the first few months. I think because of the openess of Rifts beta (people who buy it probably have a really good idea what they are getting as opposed to AOC which was a rip off) Rift will have a MUCH higher retention rate at least for the first few months. I honestly expect 300k sales the first month and 400k to 500k players after 3 months. The game will climb for two reasons... first, word of mouth from current players will be good and because retention rates will be high.... also, there are a LOT of people that will never buy a MMORPG for the first month because of AOC and Warhammer. Expect a lot of those burned players to jump into Rift after a month or two.
The big question is what happens after 3 months when the majority of players are at max level and playing new content. Will the devs be able to make a viable game at max level?
I always laugh when people refer to the "huge" IP's from AoC and Warhammer... seriously, most gamer today, if they know Conan at all, simply know that it was a bad B movie staring the governer of california. And outside of a few nerds, Warhammer is just as much of an unknown in the real world.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
It took month and a half for Aion to reach 1mill mark, and Warhammer dinged it in a month. I really hope for mmogawd's sake that Rift hits 1mill in it's first week.
Rift has 145k registered member in their forum, so they are the ones tested beta and potential buyers but dont think all of them are buying. it will probably sell maximum 200k at launch month then slowly increase or decrease. only time will tell.
Comments
* Rolls her eyes *
Now you guys are just getting silly..
I can handle silly but really had to reread a few times to realize
There are zealous fans that is true, but then their are the zealous haters who make sure to take time out of their busy lives to post on every single thread about the game they hate how much they hate it and it and how it will crash and burn. LoL
I can think of 2 reasons for that:
Rift being popular at this time, topics about Rift are showing up in the 'Current Forum Activity' window on front page.
The 'zealous haters' baits are very effective, and the 'zealous fans' keep falling for that.
I don't know if you know how to look up products on Amazon, but Rift CE is #1 on Amazon under RPG bestsellers, and #2 for the Standard Edition
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/ref=sr_nr_n_11?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A%2111846801%2Cn%3A229575%2Cn%3A289966&bbn=229575&ie=UTF8&qid=1297388209&rnid=229575
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/ref=sr_hi_2?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A!11846801%2Cn%3A229575&bbn=229575&ie=UTF8&qid=1297392156
Behind WoW cataclysm and behind DC Universe. You not ranking fair.
I hope this is the case. But I haven't seen any shelves even showing the preorder boxes like other games where I live. I found this to be very odd and hope they at least fill the shelves once the game comes out.
Juegos de Lucha-Free online games
RPG Titles
Juego De Guerra
Rift Universe
Really? I don't know why so many of you guys want this game to fail so badly.
Rift is going to be an absolutely massive game.
True
I don't understand it either. I have never sat there and thought I hoped a game would fail. It really makes no sense at all.
Juegos de Lucha-Free online games
RPG Titles
Juego De Guerra
Rift Universe
really? how do you know?
It will be 500k+ pretty easy after a month. They are marketing it pretty well on websites and having a pretty crowded Closed beta for two months has helped quite a bit.
Sales, or subs after 1 year..?
What are you really asking, will Trion be able to sustain RIFT in the long run, or maintain itself? So are you asking if it's going to be a success? I would think that exact sales figures really won't matter. I see no difference in how this game will play out if they sell 700k copies, verses 2.2m copies.
Is there any reasoning behind having us guess?
I predict that after 1 year, Rift will have at least 1 million subscribers. Until everquest comes out.
"No they are not charity. That is where the whales come in. (I play for free. Whales pays.) Devs get a business. That is how it works."
-Nariusseldon
Near 1 mill sales... Aoc did, WAR did, Aion did... so i dont see why Rift wont, the game is not an amateur bugfest.
There are a ton of MMO jumpers in today market, they will buy it play the free month or two max. and left it to hype the next one, then .. rinse and repeat
300k to 400k in the first few months. There is no way it is going to outsell AOC or Warhammer for their first few months (about 1 million each). Those games had HUGE IPs, HUGE marketing budgets and were coming from developed companies. AS much as people in this forum like to live in a small world.. for most gamers, Rift isn´t even on the radar. It isn´t advertised much outside of a few fansites.. it just is a small fish right now.
I´m not a hater though. while those games (aoc, warhammer) both started at 1 million, they both fell to 200k within the first few months. I think because of the openess of Rifts beta (people who buy it probably have a really good idea what they are getting as opposed to AOC which was a rip off) Rift will have a MUCH higher retention rate at least for the first few months. I honestly expect 300k sales the first month and 400k to 500k players after 3 months. The game will climb for two reasons... first, word of mouth from current players will be good and because retention rates will be high.... also, there are a LOT of people that will never buy a MMORPG for the first month because of AOC and Warhammer. Expect a lot of those burned players to jump into Rift after a month or two.
The big question is what happens after 3 months when the majority of players are at max level and playing new content. Will the devs be able to make a viable game at max level?
It is very difficult to predict such things. It is also very difficult to know the figures to base such predictions on. Certainly nowaday. The number of subscribers on their forums say something about the number of people interested in joining open beta. That number is close to 150.000, which, one might say is not that high for an AAA title. Hype on this site for this game is relatively high, but outside the specialized mmorpg sites the awareness about this game is not very high. A good advertising campaigne and a positive buzz from the open beta might do wonders, but to what extend.
Now, I expext the sales to be higher than 250.000 in the first week, which will include pre-order sales. The sales might reach 500,000 in the first month world wide, but it does not seem very likely. So somewhere below that. Based upon? My best guess, but since I guess it is anybody's guess I would love to be right about this.
Chances for that are {mod edit}.
It takes one to know one.
sort by PC games:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/ref=sr_nr_n_0?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A%2111846801%2Cn%3A229575%2Cn%3A12508701&bbn=229575&ie=UTF8&qid=1297554052&rnid=229575#
sort by "coming soon"
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/ref=sr_nr_n_0?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A%2111846801%2Cn%3A229575%2Cn%3A12508701&bbn=229575&ie=UTF8&qid=1297554418&rnid=229575#/ref=sr_nr_p_n_date_2?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A%2111846801%2Cn%3A229575%2Cn%3A12508701%2Cp_n_date%3A1249090011&bbn=12508701&ie=UTF8&qid=1297554540&rnid=1249087011
Game version:
DCUO: game download version.
RIFT: collectors edition! Sic!
SC II "WOL" normal
1 Million subs at launch
Without being able to play the endgame, I can't really say retention rates:
Here are my anecdotal observations:
1) Popular guilds from long dead games like aion,warhammer, daoc are coming back
2) Old guild members are coming back in droves after the last beta.
3) Recruiting is a breeze for this game. Our guild has about 5 news apps daily. Much easier than any other game.
This tells me it's polished and fun (at least the first 35 levels). WIth the endgame only time will tell. But I know for sure there are multiple dungeons and 20 man raid with finished content. A T2 raid is scheduled a month after launch. Lets just hope the endgame is fun.
I always laugh when people refer to the "huge" IP's from AoC and Warhammer... seriously, most gamer today, if they know Conan at all, simply know that it was a bad B movie staring the governer of california. And outside of a few nerds, Warhammer is just as much of an unknown in the real world.
there are 7 diff places u can order this game so if amazon has 300k+ already hitting 1M should be a problem.
Where are we getting the 300k amazon number from?
Not that I doubt that it could be that high, just curious.
Well no more than 600k at best. Flks keep saying they have numbers but offer no proof of those sales.
If they hit 600k they easly outsold warhammer, aion, aoc, and yes even lotro
Didn't they need to reach 1million+ for that? I read the numbers for AoC and WAR were 700k and 1 million.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
It took month and a half for Aion to reach 1mill mark, and Warhammer dinged it in a month. I really hope for mmogawd's sake that Rift hits 1mill in it's first week.
Rift has 145k registered member in their forum, so they are the ones tested beta and potential buyers but dont think all of them are buying. it will probably sell maximum 200k at launch month then slowly increase or decrease. only time will tell.