WoW: What does this mean?

Alot · March 2011

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php?serverid=-1

I'll probably never shout "WoW is dead", but what does this mean?

tawess · March 2011

That rift is released...

This usualy happens at the release of every major game...

JohnnyCache · March 2011

it means nothing... there is no telling what year that graph represents no can you properly validate any data on it...

if the data cant be validated, the graph is merely "executive eye-candy"...

Alot · March 2011

Originally posted by JohnnyCache
it means nothing... there is no telling what year that graph represents no can you properly validate any data on it...

if the data cant be validated, the graph is merely "executive eye-candy"...

I just found this link on the Rift forums, in one of the three threads in the first page of off-topic chat where they are discussing wether or not Rift is killing WoW. Quite hilarious to read some of the comments there.

erictlewis · March 2011

Well the December numbers were worse than the march numbers. So yes one has to ask what happened in December, Then you had the xpac roll out and folks came back to try it out the spikes in January and February, now the lows are showing rift and folks who are tired of the xpac.

Now lets look at the graph next month, and for the next 3 months.

Right now it really does not show much other than some folks are not playing. Also worth noting March is usually spring break so I would think that also shows students away on vacation.

Lets take a look at the end of April. Then we might have better data to look at.

DarkPony · March 2011

Character class rainbow, what does it mean?

Looks like a dwindling population to me.

Eliandal · March 2011

Originally posted by Alot

Originally posted by JohnnyCache
it means nothing... there is no telling what year that graph represents no can you properly validate any data on it...

if the data cant be validated, the graph is merely "executive eye-candy"...

I just found this link on the Rift forums, in one of the three threads in the first page of off-topic chat where they are discussing wether or not Rift is killing WoW. Quite hilarious to read some of the comments there.

Honestly, *I* (note the I) feel that if Rift really WERE doing as well as some seem to think, Trion would be crowing the numbers all over. Is it a success? Definately! Is it killing WoW? No more than WAR and Aion did. Usually retention is what matters, however with no figures at all from Trion - that's going to be hard to guage.

Ikeda · March 2011

I'm not sure what the graph represents. We've been seeing an interesting trend ever since Cata released. To be honest, I'm not sure whether or not Rift is a success. Well, not in WoW success terms. While I appreciated the game, and enjoyed the community, I found that I was just doing the same thing over and over and over... 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 6, 7, 1, 2, 3, 4 ... IMO the best part of Rift was the PvP.

Rifts were overly annoying after a bit, and frankly, being de-mounted every time I was running from point A to point B got old. Rift lost my attention span. I'm sure others are enjoying it and bully for them. Whether this reflects on WoW numbers though is hard to tell. If you notice, there was a sharp drop around Cata launch and then back up, now it's dwindling again. It could be that most Cata players returned after X-mas, played and are slowly dropping off, or it could just be a random drop in the curve.

It's too soon to tell. What will be more telling will be seeing that graph upon GW2/SWTOR launches as those are expected to be major franchises. Not that they'll be good, but a majority of the internet seems to be jumping on that band wagon.

erictlewis · March 2011

Originally posted by Alot

Originally posted by JohnnyCache
it means nothing... there is no telling what year that graph represents no can you properly validate any data on it...

if the data cant be validated, the graph is merely "executive eye-candy"...

I just found this link on the Rift forums, in one of the three threads in the first page of off-topic chat where they are discussing wether or not Rift is killing WoW. Quite hilarious to read some of the comments there.

Well the way I see all this, until trion goes ok we have this many active subs, those numbers don't mean anything.

Rift is not the only game on the market.

My thoughts are all games have ebb and flow, and folks come and go. So really now if the chart showed millions leaving now then we would have something to talk about.

But until then its all pure conjecture, and folks pulling numbers out of their rear end to show support for the product of the month.

SlickShoes · March 2011

Originally posted by erictlewis
Well the December numbers were worse than the march numbers. So yes one has to ask what happened in December, Then you had the xpac roll out and folks came back to try it out the spikes in January and February, now the lows are showing rift and folks who are tired of the xpac.

Now lets look at the graph next month, and for the next 3 months.

Right now it really does not show much other than some folks are not playing. Also worth noting March is usually spring break so I would think that also shows students away on vacation.

Lets take a look at the end of April. Then we might have better data to look at.

Christmas happened in december! This is always a quiet time on any game.

This graph shows a dip in numbers, but the real data that will be interesting is the next few months, will the numbers go back up as everyone comes back from Rift? As you said the next couple of months will be interesting.

I got fed up with Rift pretty fast so it will be interesting to see what happens to it over the first few subscription months.

UsualSuspect · March 2011

Looks to me like there's a dip at Christmas while everyone does the holiday thing, then straight after it leaps up as all those who got WoW for Christmas start playing it. After that the graph dips as the new players decide they don't like it, so it returns pretty much to its original values.

The End.

Boraxe · March 2011

That's a pretty fast drop in wow activity.

MMO.Maverick · March 2011

Let's be realistic: even if Rift has 500k-1million players of which half were active WoW players, then that still is just a small fraction of the 5, maybe 6 million EU+NA subs that WoW has.

Any consistent drop will probably be because of WoW post-CATA not being interesting enough for a number of players, so that they left WoW to play other games, among them Rift.

edit: the dip in December was a technical thing, when they updated the tool, had nothing to do with player behaviour.

ste2000 · March 2011

Can you not see a similar drop in the month of December and then recovered again?

marquisk2 · March 2011

Originally posted by ste2000
Can you not see a similar drop in the month of December and then recovered again?

That's because Cata was released. It would be different if the dip was last year at some time, but when something new comes out , such as an expansion, people come back to check things out. The dip in March can mean nothing or it can mean something but we won't know for sure. It would be nice to see a drop of population in WoW so Blizzard might wake up and do something to keep their players, but only one can dream.

fivoroth · March 2011

This graph doesn't tell me anything. Other than that there was a spike in player activity in December which is usually the busiest month of the year. Feb/March start to decline as weather gets better.

You need to look at movements for the last couple of years to see if there are patterns or not.

Data was gathered how? No answer. When a source does not say how they gathered their data, then you can just ignore them.

fivoroth · March 2011

Originally posted by Sukiyaki

Originally posted by fivoroth
This graph doesn't tell me anything. Other than that there was a spike in player activity in December which is usually the busiest month of the year. Feb/March start to decline as weather gets better.

You need to look at movements for the last couple of years to see if there are patterns or not.

Data was gathered how? No answer. When a source does not say how they gathered their data, then you can just ignore them.

1. You see a noticeable decline (25-20%) below the stats of the past years "better wheater" time. How can you blame it on "better wheater "when the graph is representing exactly one year and the seasonal trends "better wheater" effects can just be be looked at on the past years following month, right at the left end of the graph. Looking at the trend it apparently was even higher in past years March than in past years April. So even greater drop unrelated to "wheather".

First off, it is WEATHER not "wheather". The graph shows only ONE year. Can you tell me if there was such a drop from Dec through Feb/March last year? No, you can't. Looking at the left side of the graph is stupid. You can't say much. There may be a spike in Mar and you would never know. And look at end of march. It starts to go up. Can you tell what's happening? No. If they give us a graph for the last 2-3 years maybe more then it will be more meaningful data.

Winter is a season. People play more during the winter. After winter ends, the weather (mind you not the wheather) gets warmer. People go out more. People spend less time in front of their PCs. So what do you think happens to player activity? Do I need to spell it out?

2.How is the data gatherd? No answer? You serious? You basically where forced to click right on the source for all answers, the mainpage for the whole addon including the forum when you opened the graph in first place. It sounds more like you just want to ignore the data.

I didn't see that. But one addon to measure population? Who uses the addon to measure the data?

The data is collected during prime time only. This creates certain assumptions.

When I looked at the sample size, they are looking only at EU/US servers.

I don't want to ignore the data because I don't care. I don't play WoW anymore, I don't play any MMO. For me this genre is pathetic and not worth playing.

MMO.Maverick · March 2011

Originally posted by fivoroth

I don't want to ignore the data because I don't care. I don't play WoW anymore, I don't play any MMO. For me this genre is pathetic and not worth playing.

And yet you spend a lot of time here, an MMORPG site, even arguing about figures that hold no interest at all to you and for which you didn't do, nor are inclined to, any investigating?

If you don't like MMO's, then what are you doing on a site where MMO's are discussed?

fivoroth · March 2011

Originally posted by MMO.Maverick

Originally posted by fivoroth

I don't want to ignore the data because I don't care. I don't play WoW anymore, I don't play any MMO. For me this genre is pathetic and not worth playing.

And yet you spend a lot of time here, an MMORPG site, even arguing about figures that hold no interest at all to you and for which you didn't do, nor are inclined to, any investigating?

If you don't like MMO's, then what are you doing on a site where MMO's are discussed?

There was a time where I was looknig for MMOs after I quit WoW. This one popped up after a google search and there was a nice list of MMOs. So I stayed for a while and now I am just used to logging when I don't want to do something else like writing my 3000 words uni essays! It's like a hobby of mine. I don't bother with playing games too much any more.

But mostly I like to bash people I find it much more amusing than spending my time on FB.

MMO.Maverick · March 2011

Ah, so just the forum pvp

Well, as you've seen, you're not the only one on this site, a lot of people filling their time with hopping onto this site, often not just to simply discuss MMORPG's

fivoroth · March 2011

Originally posted by MMO.Maverick
Ah, so just the forum pvp

Well, as you've seen, you're not the only one on this site, a lot of people filling their time with hopping onto this site, often not just to simply discuss MMORPG's

Nothing more exciting that forum PvP now is there ?

Originally posted by Sukiyaki

Originally posted by fivoroth
First off, it is WEATHER not "wheather". The graph shows only ONE year. Can you tell me if there was such a drop from Dec through Feb/March last year? No, you can't. Looking at the left side of the graph is stupid. You can't say much. There may be a spike in Mar and you would never know. And look at end of march. It starts to go up. Can you tell what's happening? No. If they give us a graph for the last 2-3 years maybe more then it will be more meaningful data.

Winter is a season. People play more during the winter. After winter ends, the weather (mind you not the wheather) gets warmer. People go out more. People spend less time in front of their PCs. So what do you think happens to player activity? Do I need to spell it out?

Omg its written weather u so smart! Ur argument so great!

Ok so you say during winter people play more. I never denied that. You just try to make it sound like it explains everything and pretend the numbers are just victim to seasonal trends combined with the other usual post expansion drops.

But ..you are basically just strengthening my point with your own arguments... If people play more in winter than in March then its highly to assume the winter season and March of past year had been even higher than the past years April we even can see on the graph. We usually compare March to March or winter to winter. Same goes for trends of each season or from season to season. It was allready in favor of WoW to compare this years March to past years April due to you very own argument that less people play "because of the weather".

But now just for the sake of argument out of nowhere you assume that last year there might have been a sudden spike right before April (because you assumed that there isnt any data before April 2010) that might have still affected and inflated the March data of last year, just to invalidate the obviously higher numbers of last years April. With no reason given at all why to assume that . (TOO BAD: THERE WASNT ANY MAGIC UNUSUAL SPIKE you can look up the data from past years on the same website on just two sections further in the forum reaching back till 2005) But yet at the same time you use the "omg winter season is over a drop in march is totally normal!" as excuse for current numbers dropping lower than past years whole spring season, when matter of fact is ... what happend is the complete opposite of your "potential" excuses.

THIS year there was a spike before March, not last year. There has been some unmissable overhyped expansionpack released just a few months before this years March raising the numbers to an anual peak. Last year there wasnt a spike before March and no big expansionpack to raise the numbers.

If no increased number of people had quit WoW, the graph at March of this year should be higher than past years April which both can be seen on the graph just for the two reason you brought up yourself. First a spike before THIS years March caused by the release of Cata. And second because less people play in April than in March "due to the weather"

tl,hurdurr.: You cant have it two ways. If an assumption that there might have been a spike last year before march is allready valid to discredit the drop for you (unrelevant now of the fact there wasnt any unnormal one), then the allready obviously evident spike before this years March created by Cata counts either. And winter season drops didnt just happen this year but past year eithers.

Its starts to get up ...for now atleast, right with a new contentpatch at the dorrbell? Great its still lower than any time since exactly one year. While last years continous downward trend it went up for some week or weeks like 8 times either for same reasons. Its you who's in the position, who shouldnt grasp on some tiny spikes while the trend continues to point downward.

I didn't see that. But one addon to measure population? Who uses the addon to measure the data

I allready posted that before: arround 2 data uploads every day per server. One addon is enough because that one addon counts everyone online within your faction regardless whether they have an addon or not. Thats enough to get trends.

The data is collected during prime time only. This creates certain assumptions.

Who said its collected during prime time only? Who? That IS a wrong assumption. One data upload allone consist usually of mutliple datacollections from all possible times. On the other hand it doesnt create any assumption at all in case of long term trends, as in year over year comparisons its insignificant for trends when the data has been collected if its enough samples an all usually at similar times as the past year. No ones talking about extrapolation of totals, but relative trends. Another wrong assumption.

When I looked at the sample size, they are looking only at EU/US servers.

And thats the actual great part of it. Due to xfire being biased towards xfire user preferences theres been not many numbers else aside from official number highly inflated by Eastern mainly Chinese accounts.

I don't want to ignore the data because I don't care. I don't play WoW anymore, I don't play any MMO. For me this genre is pathetic and not worth playing.

If you say so.

Cavod · March 2011

Originally posted by Elidien
Well considering that a player must download the addon and run it while they play, I doubt seriously that the information in that graph is even enough of a sample size to matter (not to mention how skewed the data is because of needing the addon). The huge drop in December was probably due to the addon not being updated for the expansion.

Just my 2 coppers.

You've obviously never ran into the xfire propagandists.

pierth · March 2011

Even if the sample size was representative of the entire WoW playerbase (which it likely isn't) all it appears to show is that many tried Cataclysm, then left again. I'd like to say that it just shows cata was a crap expansion but there's not even enough data to really say.

Ironfungus · March 2011

Originally posted by Alot
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php?serverid=-1

I'll probably never shout "WoW is dead", but what does this mean?

The Mayans were right!!

fivoroth · March 2011

Originally posted by ironfungus

Originally posted by Alot

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php?serverid=-1

I'll probably never shout "WoW is dead", but what does this mean?

The Mayans were right!!

OOhh my god, I did not see that coming. The mayans were talking about the end of WoW and we all know what follows next? Mass suicides, homocides in the real life and baaam the end of the world

Coming soooon.......2 0 1 2

kalinis · March 2011

It means nothing. It says peak time. I for one play est time usually 2-7 pm and 2am to 4-5 am . So im never on at peak time. I have alot of freinds who play same time period. So we arent even counted in this graph.

Wow isnt in trouble. Far from it . I think its funny rift hits market and its wow is dying again just like when warhammer went live. Sure the new kid is hot right now but for how long?

So im not worried i see lots of people o playing when i do. So no worries at all on my end.

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