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Another 6 years + before Xbox 360 gets a successor
bezado
Member UncommonPosts: 1,127
This is crazy talk. They said the 360 is only half way into it's life span of 6 years and that it wont be until another 6 years for a new release. So if SONY follows MS on this that means that console games will not grow in complexity for a long while yet, while PC games are already cranking out DX11 titles and are looking more realistic then ever. Can this be good news for console fans, I think not. It essentially slows down the technological curve of console gaming.
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I've always like computer gaming over console for its more powerful gaming experiences. I like the whole setup of consoles over pc though. But i am mostly alone playing on the computer. So if i wanna kill other people play consoles with my friends. So i always feel stuck with consoles, but thinking of abandon consoles for straight pc gaming.
Bezado did you even read the article that you linked? It doesn't say anywhere that its going to be 6 years before the next xbox. In fact it even link to another article of theirs saying that Microsoft is rumored/expected to preview the next xbox at next years E3. The same article talking about E3 next year also mentioned that work on a new game for the new xbox has been underway already and that they were showing it off behind closed doors, meaning that quite a bit of work has been done on it already but they aren't ready to show the public what they have yet. Most likely I would figure that we have at most 2-3 years before the next xbox arrives at which point it will most likely be on par with the current computers that are out at that time if not better then them.
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Yes I did read the article. They said Xbox 360 was at it's half life, which xbox360 has been out for 6 years. Do little math and you will find that if a value of 6 = half then 6 more would equal the answer. So 6 years left if we only reached half. Just because they might have another xbox in development doesn't mean we would see it anytime soon, plus this article did have one the big guys talking about it so why would they lie? There have been countless new consoles made up behind doors never shown to the public over the past 20 yrs plus, most were R&D and alot simply got scrapped because new hardware changes come out so fast that the systems they had built became obsolete or other reasons. I am sure they had multiple new xbox designs over the years since xbox 1 came out.
I think this is an intentional thing, to put less pressure on them later honestly. I sense something akin to price fixing going on between Sony and Microsoft, really. "Look, this shit's getting expensive (circa 2005) and we can't keep cranking out new consoles and hardware upgrades for video games. Let's cut it back a notch, don't release another one until... say... 10 years from now. Deal? Work on other things in the meantime. Like your network security maybe."
bezado, the only logic fault in your thinking is that the PS2 is still somewhat healthy and within its lifespan. That is older consoles continue to live on after the new ones appear.
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To me, this is good news! It means I won't have to invest in another console for awhile
- Al
Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.- FARGIN_WAR
I will tell you why, because PS2 is cheap to make, it doesn't have the expensive hardware and SONY parts for that console are very very cheap to produce. PS2 is the entry into console gaming for many whos parents buy them at holiday discounted prices really really cheap, instead of the more expensive wii or ps3, 360. But sales of the PS2 are not ground breaking by any means in USA, it mainly comes down to the Asian markets who define their games popularity through their chosen console a.k.a the PS2. They got more games on the PS2 released then any console system ever created over there. This is why it still sells big, lots of these small game companies keep making their next titles on the easy to make PS2 system.
What you will never see is expensive hardware sold cheaper once a replacement console comes along, your PS3 and 360 consoles. You will not see it, once one these gets replaced the consumer market simply picks up the new system being not much more in cost over the old one, they get new hardware and newer better games. Also PS2 never had the network to deal with which brings me to that point. When the 360 and PS3 have so many games on their network to play, when a new console is made people wont want to play the new releases for a major game on the older one. COD would be bought played to death on a new system vs the old if they had the choice. The advantages are just to great.
So with that said if they released a new system right away then the old one would be finished, sales would fall to low to keep it going. This is why I believe the 6 years + from now when we will see a new 360 and not just a slim down version with better cooling because that would still be a 360 and nothing new.
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It will get a successor long before the end of its lifespan, for obvious marketing reasons. With a new console that gamers will pay big dough for, they can really lower the price on the old and reach a new market group. This has been the trend for the last 20 years, and it's not going to change.
Baseline: It won't be another 6 years till their next console. I'll guarantee you that.
Ps5 with my virtual reality helmet and xbox 720 with ps3 standards :P
I doubt they seriously expect to get another 6 years out of the 360. After all the original xbox only had a 4 or 5 year run. Not many consoles have lasted a decade, let alone 12 years. I think the only one to ever do it was the PSX, and only then because of the PS One revamp.
TBH the 360 architecture was released inferior to PC capabilities at the time, and that defacit has only grown over the years. I cant imagine how drastically outdated it will be in 2017.
What i find most suspicious about this timeline is that there is no real reason for M$ to avoid releasing a new console. More to the point, if they DONT do it their major competitor, Sony, will. And i can see the marketing slogan now:
Introducing the all new PS4! Hey, at least it isnt 12 years old!
Sony and Microsoft both said that they would stick to the Ps2 model and have at least a 10 year life time. If anything shows that they are still on that same course. All you have to do is look at E3 this year there was no New Xbox and PS shown or talked about.
I am happy that they are all sticking to the longer life time. I was getting tired of buying a new console every few years. Just when that old console just was making good games. Now I have to buy a new console that alwasy suxed.
Activision will like that. For 6 more years they can change the box art and resell COD as COD ,9,10,11,12,13,and 14.
I'd like to know what you mean by "grow in complexity". are you talking gameplay, programming, hardware utilization, etc. I'd don't think complexity = fun. so regardless if something is at its half life or not, as long as it fills its role of bringing entertainment it's ok with me.
I remember when MS told Xbox owners the Xbox had a few years left before a successor. This was a few months before the Xbox 360 reveal.
You can still buy a new PS2 in stores 11 years after release so I don't doubt you'll be able to find Xbox 360's in stores in six. However, I also think the successor will be released in the next 2-3 years.
YEAH!!!! LETS BASE EVERYTHING ON SPECULATION AND ASSUMPTION, THEN CONSIDER IT FACT!!
In all seriousness, just because a product is supposed to last over a decade doesn't mean that they won't come out with a newer one. I mean if this was actually how companies worked, they would be actually losing money because all they would have out is the newer crap that's more expensive and not selling to much. They keep the older stuff out because it's cheaper to make with age. Not many consumers will go out and buy the most expensive stuff because majority of us don't have a huge amount of money to blow on whatever we want. That's one of the reasons the Wii a while back sold so much so quickly. The newer stuff is a niche market at the time and until it gets cheaper, it won't really sell. I mean the PS2 was still outselling the 360 when it first came out. It wasn't until the price drop that it really sold. Same thing with the PS3. Sold like crap when it first came out and didn't start to sell until a year or so later. I've never seen any product that's actually selling somewhat well, be sent to the crapper right when they newer one comes out. Well, unless the product is total sh*t, but that's a whole different can of worms.
Bottom line is that just because the life span of a product is supposed to X years, it doesn't mean that they won't come out with something newer before the time of it being scraped.
Everyone has opinions, but does that make them the universal truth??? NO!
I would also ask what the article thinks of as "lifespan".
Is it the amount of time you can still buy the console in retail stores, or is it the amount of time developers are still making games for the platform? The two are different, sometimes by a span of years.
I really don't care either way, honestly. Consoles are going the way of the Arcade Game anyway. They are outdated hardware, that's extremely expensive to manufacture and buy compared to the power they output.
I've also read more than a few articles, where both Sony and MS saying their next gen will be their last and a couple that have said Sony won't even create a next gen. I didn't read this article or click the link though, I really don't care that much, all this is old news to me (over a year or 2).
As far as the price fixing someone else mentioned, it's really not price fixing. Sony actually did really poorly on their PS3 launch because of the insane price they were forced to charge, so that they wouldn't lose money on each console sold. Development costs were extremely high.
The next step is virtual reality, like someone else mentioned.... but even if they were working on them now (and I HOPE they are), you're still looking at probably another 6-10yrs. I for one am hoping that the Kinect is the precursor to a primative VR system. The reason VR didn't take hold in the 90's, was because the technology was too bad and the computing power was too low. These combined, just resulted in lots of nausea. Today we really don't have that problem, the new systems are really really great and cloud & distributed computing would really help out alot.
Here's to hoping.
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MS made a major error dropping support for the first gen Xbox as quick as they did and trying to shovel the (at the time) horribly unreliable 360 down our throats. I know most of the people I know who had Xbox's did not go on to own Xbox 360's, most now own PS3's or Wii's. I own 2 Xbox's and I still play some of the games on them but I never bought a 360 because of the way MS did what they did to kill the Xbox.
Instead Ive ended up with a PS3 (it came free with my TV) and I own a bunch of games for that now too.
Sony on the other hand still supports the PS2 and PS2 titles were still shipping well after the PS3 hit stores.
The fallout from this generation of consoles is that both MS and Sony have aknowledged their R&D costs and initial manufacturing costs on the 360 and PS3 was far too high and that they do not want to repeat that mistake. So it makes sense that they will try to milk as much as possible out of their current gen hardware before launching another.
I think the PS3 will age more gracefully than the 360 though as it is significantly more powerfull and CELL processors far more flexible to work with. Interestingly it was Sony executives who said MS was pushing console development generations too fast when the 360 was announced.
Im not sure where people got the whole "the next PS will be Sony's last console" because Sony have said lately they will continue pushing the PS Brand but that their approach to their next console will be vastly different so they keep R&D costs down and they want more portable technology integration which is already happening to some extent in both camps Win7 mobile + xbox live and PSP integration with PSN and PS3. The new Sony Phone should prove interesting to see how far they push this mobile to console integration envelope.
MS & Sony will both look to what Nintendo is doing and follow suit with their own versions of digital distribution. Next gen consoles will still use some form of read media for games but I think the gen after that is likely to be digital distro only.
Actually from the current rumblings there is very likely to be a shift on the thinking about cloud at least at enterprise level (which usually filters down to home users/customers too) in the wake of lulzsec and ongoing anonymous tragetted attacks companies are just realising how vulnerable reliance on cloud services can actually make them.
So Cloud for delivering gaming sounds like a great idea, rigth up until the time your game company gets held to ransom by hackers interfering with the service.....
Check out Crysis 2 DX11 looks AWESOME on my PC on ultra settings and it runs smooth also even on highest settings.
Eat that consoles:P
My xbox 360 just sits now that I use my beast of a PC. Yes Crysis 2 looks great in DX11. Can't wait to see BF3
They have already started the process for the next system. Though it may be 3 or more years out from shelves, it will not likely be a full 6 years. I agree that the xbox 360 still has a lot to offer, but technology is evolving rapidly and I would suspect that we will see a new system in E3 2013 or 2014.
PS3 is 5 years old and Xbox360 is 6 years old, they can release a new machine 2013, which I'm sure most ppl would be happy about. I know the Kinect and Playstation Move, have given both systems a boost in sales, but with lots of media features on both console, they really becoming huge entertainment machines for home.
I'm lucky to have a PC rig that out performs both systems, but when games are only made on the consoles, I have to buy it on the console version, which the down side is the games cost more.
The next console are going to be expensive, for me I can live another 2 years without buying a new console.
As long as developers can make solid games for both PS3 and Xbox360, I'm not going to complain.
Wildstar (2013) & Elder Scroll Online (2013)
Playing: Diablo 3, WOW, Far Cry 3 & X-Com.
Enjoyed: WOW 5 1/2 yrs, LOTRO 3yrs, GW 1/2yr, DFO 1yr, EVE Online 3yrs, and Huxley (Beta).
Failed to impress: GW2 3months, Tera Online 6 months (best combat system in any MMO I've played) STO 1/4yr, Aion 1/2yr, AoC 1yr, CO, Fallen Earth, DDO, EQ2 1/2yr, WAR 1/2yr, Lineage 2 and FF XI 1/2yr, FF XIV.