http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php I have never seen this many American box pre-orders sales for any game with 7 weeks to go, I usually see those type of numbers start to sky rocket around 3-4 weeks before release not 7 weeks, at this pace Sw:tor will have well over 1.5 million American box pre-orders before launch. World wide counting box & digital sales should be well over 3 million, your thoughts? Question: What other games in the past had this those type of pre-order numbers 6-7 weeks before launch?
No MMOs have, thats for sure. I agree that it should be well over 3 million pre-orders, probably closer to 4 million. Pretty much every MMO that I can recall that broke a million took atleast a month or two to hit that mark. Yes, even WoW took around 2 months to hit a million...believe it or not. So to have around 4x that at launch for pre-orders is pretty impressive. Especially when you consider that there will also be a large number of purchases on day one, not just with the pre-orders. Who knows with the "limited launch" they are doing though, may be tricky to find the game after launch for a few weeks.
Not to mention that this is based on US sales alone. I am pretty sure SWTOR will have more people purchase the game (hopefully stay subbed) at launch then WoW has US subs.
It was a completely different market when WoW came out, which is what makes its success more impressive. It's funny, with all the rampant WoW hate, no one will give Blizzard the credit they rightfully desserve for being the mmo market to the mainstream and bringing in countless subscribers and investors alike. People can hate WoW all they want, but where would we be without it? Who knows.
this won't be the test, the test will come 7 months into the game to see where the majority of the population will be if they are happy and how fast the dev team puts out new content to keep up with the demand of the players. That's the only viable true test of any mmo game. Selling boxes really means nothing.
I don't think the OP was referring to any future test. He was talking about American box pre-orders. You are referring to viable long-term success, which is something different.
Selling boxes means alot. I'm not sure why anyone would say that the money made from such sales "means nothing". If that were the case, they would give it away for free, and hope to make money in the long term.
Battlefield 3 sold over 5 million copies, so it is likely that even though SWTOR is an MMO, with this correlation that it will sell over 5 million copies too.
I don't know about five million for SWTOR, but definitely 3 million. You know the funniest thing about that as well?
Look at all these crybabies saying "I don't want to have to use Origin. That's a ripoff. So I won't play SWTOR just because of that", as if it's the devil or something.
Yet, a game like Battlefield 3 which actually REQUIRES Origin to be used sold over 5 million copies, and SWTOR doesn't even require it, lol.
I have a feeling a lot of the people who post negatively just hate on SWTOR itself because it is going to affect their game, yet a lot of these very same people doing that trolling already went out and got Battlefield 3.
Five million copies for a game that has to have Origin to play. There goes that "Nobody will buy these games because Origin and EA sucks and Steam doesn't" theory. I suspect the same thing will happen with SWTOR. People crying about Origin will buy the game and never admit it.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
I wonder how many of those pre-orders are cheap-skates like me who plan to cancel if the game is poop in the early access.
This is why early access should not be given for preorders only. pretty much a crap move imo. you probably preorder every game that comes out for the beta access or early access then you cancel your preorder and go to a free to play game in the meantime. hate to see the morals you will teach your kids one day. Personally you should just wait till they offer a free trial six months to a year after the game is released to determine if you like it or not. you had no intention of buying or paying for the game with that comment, you want your free days and then you will move on to the next mmo sucker company that thinks they are trying to do something nice for their loyal customers. im glad people like you wont be in this game to ruin it with your bad attitude.
btw i dont think they are giving beta access for preorders, its early access but not beta. could be wrong there as i dont want to beta the game. so preordering for beta access is a nogo. these all look like legit preorders, cept for the leechers like above.
Anyone that has dabbled in this game can see it will retain better then WAR, AOC, and yes even Rift. Some won t like it, but what it claims to do it does extremely well. Until GW2 comes out it will be the best game on the market, and even then GW2 isn t the same model so it won t even really effect it. These people sayiny retention this retention that, are basing on what has happened to lesser games in the past, and "Let's be honest" they aren t as close to the quality of SWTOR. Once again if you ve played it and like this style of MMO, or are sick of elves etc, like many many people are, you re going to stick with it, and "Let's be honest" it s that good.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
I wonder how many of those pre-orders are cheap-skates like me who plan to cancel if the game is poop in the early access.
This is why early access should not be given for preorders only. pretty much a crap move imo. you probably preorder every game that comes out for the beta access or early access then you cancel your preorder and go to a free to play game in the meantime. hate to see the morals you will teach your kids one day. Personally you should just wait till they offer a free trial six months to a year after the game is released to determine if you like it or not. you had no intention of buying or paying for the game with that comment, you want your free days and then you will move on to the next mmo sucker company that thinks they are trying to do something nice for their loyal customers. im glad people like you wont be in this game to ruin it with your bad attitude.
Wow.. unnecessary and ugly personal attacks...
Maybe if devs want to retain players then they shouldn't make 'poop' games that people don't want to play.
It's dosen't make a consumer morally bankrupt or anything to not buy shit product simply because they pre ordered it.
I wonder how many of those pre-orders are cheap-skates like me who plan to cancel if the game is poop in the early access.
This is why early access should not be given for preorders only. pretty much a crap move imo. you probably preorder every game that comes out for the beta access or early access then you cancel your preorder and go to a free to play game in the meantime. hate to see the morals you will teach your kids one day. Personally you should just wait till they offer a free trial six months to a year after the game is released to determine if you like it or not. you had no intention of buying or paying for the game with that comment, you want your free days and then you will move on to the next mmo sucker company that thinks they are trying to do something nice for their loyal customers. im glad people like you wont be in this game to ruin it with your bad attitude.
btw i dont think they are giving beta access for preorders, its early access but not beta. could be wrong there as i dont want to beta the game. so preordering for beta access is a nogo. these all look like legit preorders, cept for the leechers like above.
Nope no beta access, just early. The reason they are doing this isn't so people can get a free trial of the game (though some will do that) they are doing it so it's not like black friday where 500 people are trying to fit into a door way that allows 2 people at a time and knocking each other down.
They are trying to mitigate the flow that will come. Let a few thousand in on pre day 5, a few thounands on pre day 4, so on and so forth till launch day. That way they've gotten a decent portion of the people are in game playing and starting areas won't be as crowded and they will have time to judge how many servers they will need. Instead of it hitting them all at once and every single server dying 20 mins into the game.
Better to have 100 people rushing into the store then 500 when the doors finally open. The good thing here is the only thing the 100 people lose is the chance to be in the store those few mins sooner, instead of the actual product. (hope that analogy works)
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
Originally posted by vesavius I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
This opinion is interesting but it's probably not cause for concern of any kind. Sure there will be a "dropoff"; all games suffer that a few months out. (although I find it interesting the Rift fans claimed they didn't have one, despite the server shutdowns) The key isn't that if/when the shutdown happens, it's what happens afterwards.
Okay, now let's deal with facts instead of opinion for a moment.
Fact #1: Bioware/EA already stated:
First and foremost, he said that according to EA's models, it will not require a mammoth subscriber base a la Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft to turn a profit.
"We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing that we would write home about," he said. "[But] anything north of 1 million subscribers is a very profitable business."
That's "substantially profitable", not 'marginally', not 'barely', not 'adequately'. They are saying 500k will make them more money than they need.
Fact #2: Based on a projection of 3 million subs, in order to get to that number of 500k subs, SWTOR would need just 16.7% of the buyers to stay which would give them 501k subs. If they got about a million sub retention (which would be their ideal scenario according to the statement) based on overall initial projections (3 mil), that would mean they retained about 33% which is why they say that's VERY profitable.
Those two things are facts. The opinion someone would have to have to make that a worry is a person would have to believe that a game like SWTOR won't be able to hold a little more than 17% retention.
Not saying you believe that, but someone would have to be a pure hater of this game or severely stupid in Math AND mmos to not understand how easy that is to achieve.
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
This opinion is interesting but it's probably not cause for concern of any kind. Sure there will be a "dropoff"; all games suffer that a few months out. (although I find it interesting the Rift fans claimed they didn't have one, despite the server shutdowns) The key isn't that if/when the shutdown happens, it's what happens afterwards.
Okay, now let's deal with facts instead of opinion for a moment.
Fact #1: Bioware/EA already stated:
First and foremost, he said that according to EA's models, it will not require a mammoth subscriber base a la Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft to turn a profit.
"We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing that we would write home about," he said. "[But] anything north of 1 million subscribers is a very profitable business."
That's "substantially profitable", not 'marginally', not 'barely', not 'adequately'. They are saying 500k will make them more money than they need.
Fact #2: Based on a projection of 3 million subs, in order to get to that number of 500k subs, SWTOR would need just 16.7% of the buyers to stay which would give them 501k subs. If they got about a million sub retention (which would be their ideal scenario according to the statement) based on overall initial projections (3 mil), that would mean they retained about 33% which is why they say that's VERY profitable.
Those two things are facts. The opinion someone would have to have to make that a worry is a person would have to believe that a game like SWTOR won't be able to hold a little more than 17% retention.
Not saying you believe that, but someone would have to be a pure hater of this game or severely stupid in Math AND mmos to not understand how easy that is to achieve.
Not only achieve but surpass. I find it hard to beleive it wont hold more then 1 mill worldwide. I could be wrong but I highly doubt it. 1 thing WOW did was bring non MMO players into the genre, and many of them I m sure are SW fans.
Originally posted by Leucent Not only achieve but surpass. I find it hard to beleive it wont hold more then 1 mill worldwide. I could be wrong but I highly doubt it. 1 thing WOW did was bring non MMO players into the genre, and many of them I m sure are SW fans.
Their seems to be so much either ignorance or ostriching regarding this, it's amazing detractors get so much traction with this line of thinking, and actually convert people.
Facts alone prove they are wrong but I guess people will believe what they want, despite proof.
remmember the game has bug detect code running atm.. that will be removed after it goes live, making the game way more 'light' and increasing the game frame rate a lot in all machines.
the huge amount of pre orderes doesnt surprise me.. remmemberr those are only figures for USA box sales.. theres a huge amount of digital sales to count in USA and in the rest of the world.. lets just hope servers wont be too much overcrowed at start.. lets hope
Dang, that is impressive. I don't exactly get why American numbers are so important though, myself I see it as West and East (and I count Japan as West), and only so because there usually is a big difference in how subscription works.
But sure, you Yanks are number one or something.
Still, I never seen anything like this before with a MMO, heck, I never seen half of those numbers in pre orders.
It will be very interesting to see how this will turn out, one way or another will this affect the genre a lot.
I think the American box preorders were mentioned, because that's the only one that there was a number of.
Europe usually isn't that far behind US as seen in sub numbers in WoW and Rift and other MMO's, but it's often harder to find figures of European subs and sales, certainly in vgchartz.
Originally posted by vesavius
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Actually, I HAVE seen a number of haters and critics say that the game wouldn't sell a ton of boxes, bc it was scifi and not fantasy, bc MMO gamers were tired of WoW clones, etc etc.
Only when it became clear that SWTOR was gaining a lot of preorders those voices became silent or changed their tune.
Let's be honest... if the numbers will look still amazing after 5 months, haters and critics will just change their tune into another negative prediction again, just as doomsayers and naysayers have been predicting the doom and massive decline of WoW subs within a year since 2007.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I just hope folks keep a cool head when the ~75% of the initial gamers stop playing SWTOR and quite many of them will be writing into forums how they are dissappointed.
Most likely server merging is needed as initially lots of them were needed to support the millions in the beginning.
Just remember we still have loads of players and game is on a strong ground. No need to predict the end of the world for BW, EA or SWTOR.
Though I doubt anyone will remember, there's still going to be loads of gloom and doom - mark my words LOL
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
The opinion someone would have to have to make that a worry is a person would have to believe that a game like SWTOR won't be able to hold a little more than 17% retention.
Not saying you believe that, but someone would have to be a pure hater of this game or severely stupid in Math AND mmos to not understand how easy that is to achieve.
Believing that SWtoR is only good enough to retain 500k users at 6 months has nothing to do with maths.
17% retention at month 6 in a game like this one, with a limited themepark model aimed at the super casual market, that will rely on expensive slow to produce content to keep folk hooked in? I personally think thats entirely feasible.
You can call others 'stupid' for not seeing it your way or agreeing with you, but y'know... it's really not required and dosen't make you by default 'clever'. And lets not go down the tiresome 'hater' road of insulting the other? Labelling anyone that criticises any part of the game that dosen't move the conversation on much.
(I edited the other stuff because I in no way questioned that SWtoR will be profitable for EA, nor did I suggest it will be a 'fail'.)
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
My, how easily you are offended... Look I said, "It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months".
That obviously is not talking about the pre orders, and nor does it dismiss the high figures of the pre orders.
The 'kind of' was meant to reflect that the potentiol of around 2-3 million or so for the first 6 months is pretty good, but it certainly isn't the highest these games can potentiolly go. I had no idea anyone would get offended by me suggesting that SWtoR wouldn't be the biggest game evah.
As impressive as the numbers maybe, and I wish the game every success. I think it will get old very quick, been there done that scenario, so I think it may lose a large number after its first month. If you already played or playing WoW why on earth would you want to play the same game again with light sabers. Though I do hope i'm proved wrong.
Lets also not forget that a lot of these prorders will be from parents preordering for little Toms Christmas box. Just something to think about.
***Raises plunger in salute to # of box sales of game!***
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care. Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
My, how easily you are offended... Look I said, "It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months".
That obviously is not talking about the pre orders, and nor does it dismiss the high figures of the pre orders.
The 'kind of' was meant to reflect that 2,000,000 is pretty good, but it certainly isn't the highest these games can potentiolly go. I had no idea anyone would get offended by me suggesting that SWtoR wouldn't be the biggest game evah.
Over sensitive responding FTW
It has nothing to do with being offended, nor about suggesting that SWTOR wouldn'tbe the biggest game ever. That's completely up for debate. But every indiciation is that this game will have more pre-orders than any mmorpg EVER, and the fact that this is only "kind of" amazing numbers in your view tells us quite a lot about your view and how seriously it should be taken.
Comments
No MMOs have, thats for sure. I agree that it should be well over 3 million pre-orders, probably closer to 4 million. Pretty much every MMO that I can recall that broke a million took atleast a month or two to hit that mark. Yes, even WoW took around 2 months to hit a million...believe it or not. So to have around 4x that at launch for pre-orders is pretty impressive. Especially when you consider that there will also be a large number of purchases on day one, not just with the pre-orders. Who knows with the "limited launch" they are doing though, may be tricky to find the game after launch for a few weeks.
Not to mention that this is based on US sales alone. I am pretty sure SWTOR will have more people purchase the game (hopefully stay subbed) at launch then WoW has US subs.
It was a completely different market when WoW came out, which is what makes its success more impressive. It's funny, with all the rampant WoW hate, no one will give Blizzard the credit they rightfully desserve for being the mmo market to the mainstream and bringing in countless subscribers and investors alike. People can hate WoW all they want, but where would we be without it? Who knows.I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
I don't think the OP was referring to any future test. He was talking about American box pre-orders. You are referring to viable long-term success, which is something different.
Selling boxes means alot. I'm not sure why anyone would say that the money made from such sales "means nothing". If that were the case, they would give it away for free, and hope to make money in the long term.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
My brand new bloggity blog.
You attempted to make the guy sound like he had no reasonable base, but then you pointed out the reasonable base from which he leapt from.
Odd post, good sir.
Look at all these crybabies saying "I don't want to have to use Origin. That's a ripoff. So I won't play SWTOR just because of that", as if it's the devil or something.
Yet, a game like Battlefield 3 which actually REQUIRES Origin to be used sold over 5 million copies, and SWTOR doesn't even require it, lol.
I have a feeling a lot of the people who post negatively just hate on SWTOR itself because it is going to affect their game, yet a lot of these very same people doing that trolling already went out and got Battlefield 3.
Five million copies for a game that has to have Origin to play. There goes that "Nobody will buy these games because Origin and EA sucks and Steam doesn't" theory. I suspect the same thing will happen with SWTOR. People crying about Origin will buy the game and never admit it.
"TO MICHAEL!"
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
This is why early access should not be given for preorders only. pretty much a crap move imo. you probably preorder every game that comes out for the beta access or early access then you cancel your preorder and go to a free to play game in the meantime. hate to see the morals you will teach your kids one day. Personally you should just wait till they offer a free trial six months to a year after the game is released to determine if you like it or not. you had no intention of buying or paying for the game with that comment, you want your free days and then you will move on to the next mmo sucker company that thinks they are trying to do something nice for their loyal customers. im glad people like you wont be in this game to ruin it with your bad attitude.
btw i dont think they are giving beta access for preorders, its early access but not beta. could be wrong there as i dont want to beta the game. so preordering for beta access is a nogo. these all look like legit preorders, cept for the leechers like above.
Anyone that has dabbled in this game can see it will retain better then WAR, AOC, and yes even Rift. Some won t like it, but what it claims to do it does extremely well. Until GW2 comes out it will be the best game on the market, and even then GW2 isn t the same model so it won t even really effect it. These people sayiny retention this retention that, are basing on what has happened to lesser games in the past, and "Let's be honest" they aren t as close to the quality of SWTOR. Once again if you ve played it and like this style of MMO, or are sick of elves etc, like many many people are, you re going to stick with it, and "Let's be honest" it s that good.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
My brand new bloggity blog.
Wow.. unnecessary and ugly personal attacks...
Maybe if devs want to retain players then they shouldn't make 'poop' games that people don't want to play.
It's dosen't make a consumer morally bankrupt or anything to not buy shit product simply because they pre ordered it.
Nope no beta access, just early. The reason they are doing this isn't so people can get a free trial of the game (though some will do that) they are doing it so it's not like black friday where 500 people are trying to fit into a door way that allows 2 people at a time and knocking each other down.
They are trying to mitigate the flow that will come. Let a few thousand in on pre day 5, a few thounands on pre day 4, so on and so forth till launch day. That way they've gotten a decent portion of the people are in game playing and starting areas won't be as crowded and they will have time to judge how many servers they will need. Instead of it hitting them all at once and every single server dying 20 mins into the game.
Better to have 100 people rushing into the store then 500 when the doors finally open. The good thing here is the only thing the 100 people lose is the chance to be in the store those few mins sooner, instead of the actual product. (hope that analogy works)
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
Okay, now let's deal with facts instead of opinion for a moment.
Fact #1: Bioware/EA already stated:
That's "substantially profitable", not 'marginally', not 'barely', not 'adequately'. They are saying 500k will make them more money than they need.
Fact #2: Based on a projection of 3 million subs, in order to get to that number of 500k subs, SWTOR would need just 16.7% of the buyers to stay which would give them 501k subs. If they got about a million sub retention (which would be their ideal scenario according to the statement) based on overall initial projections (3 mil), that would mean they retained about 33% which is why they say that's VERY profitable.
Those two things are facts. The opinion someone would have to have to make that a worry is a person would have to believe that a game like SWTOR won't be able to hold a little more than 17% retention.
Not saying you believe that, but someone would have to be a pure hater of this game or severely stupid in Math AND mmos to not understand how easy that is to achieve.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Not only achieve but surpass. I find it hard to beleive it wont hold more then 1 mill worldwide. I could be wrong but I highly doubt it. 1 thing WOW did was bring non MMO players into the genre, and many of them I m sure are SW fans.
Facts alone prove they are wrong but I guess people will believe what they want, despite proof.
"TO MICHAEL!"
remmember the game has bug detect code running atm.. that will be removed after it goes live, making the game way more 'light' and increasing the game frame rate a lot in all machines.
the huge amount of pre orderes doesnt surprise me.. remmemberr those are only figures for USA box sales.. theres a huge amount of digital sales to count in USA and in the rest of the world.. lets just hope servers wont be too much overcrowed at start.. lets hope
I think the American box preorders were mentioned, because that's the only one that there was a number of.
Europe usually isn't that far behind US as seen in sub numbers in WoW and Rift and other MMO's, but it's often harder to find figures of European subs and sales, certainly in vgchartz.
Actually, I HAVE seen a number of haters and critics say that the game wouldn't sell a ton of boxes, bc it was scifi and not fantasy, bc MMO gamers were tired of WoW clones, etc etc.
Only when it became clear that SWTOR was gaining a lot of preorders those voices became silent or changed their tune.
Let's be honest... if the numbers will look still amazing after 5 months, haters and critics will just change their tune into another negative prediction again, just as doomsayers and naysayers have been predicting the doom and massive decline of WoW subs within a year since 2007.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I just hope folks keep a cool head when the ~75% of the initial gamers stop playing SWTOR and quite many of them will be writing into forums how they are dissappointed.
Most likely server merging is needed as initially lots of them were needed to support the millions in the beginning.
Just remember we still have loads of players and game is on a strong ground. No need to predict the end of the world for BW, EA or SWTOR.
Though I doubt anyone will remember, there's still going to be loads of gloom and doom - mark my words LOL
Believing that SWtoR is only good enough to retain 500k users at 6 months has nothing to do with maths.
17% retention at month 6 in a game like this one, with a limited themepark model aimed at the super casual market, that will rely on expensive slow to produce content to keep folk hooked in? I personally think thats entirely feasible.
You can call others 'stupid' for not seeing it your way or agreeing with you, but y'know... it's really not required and dosen't make you by default 'clever'. And lets not go down the tiresome 'hater' road of insulting the other? Labelling anyone that criticises any part of the game that dosen't move the conversation on much.
(I edited the other stuff because I in no way questioned that SWtoR will be profitable for EA, nor did I suggest it will be a 'fail'.)
My, how easily you are offended... Look I said, "It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months".
That obviously is not talking about the pre orders, and nor does it dismiss the high figures of the pre orders.
The 'kind of' was meant to reflect that the potentiol of around 2-3 million or so for the first 6 months is pretty good, but it certainly isn't the highest these games can potentiolly go. I had no idea anyone would get offended by me suggesting that SWtoR wouldn't be the biggest game evah.
Over sensitive responding FTW
As impressive as the numbers maybe, and I wish the game every success. I think it will get old very quick, been there done that scenario, so I think it may lose a large number after its first month. If you already played or playing WoW why on earth would you want to play the same game again with light sabers. Though I do hope i'm proved wrong.
Lets also not forget that a lot of these prorders will be from parents preordering for little Toms Christmas box. Just something to think about.
Go Bioware Go!
***Raises plunger in salute to # of box sales of game!***
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care.
Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
It has nothing to do with being offended, nor about suggesting that SWTOR wouldn'tbe the biggest game ever. That's completely up for debate. But every indiciation is that this game will have more pre-orders than any mmorpg EVER, and the fact that this is only "kind of" amazing numbers in your view tells us quite a lot about your view and how seriously it should be taken.