In terms of subs? WoW is going to blow away everything else.
Usually a safe bet but not in 2012 theres some really stiff competition coming along and WoWs got an unbelievably weak expansion pack coming along . It would take the loss of half its subs or more for it to lose its number 1 spot but I believe that really could happen next year .
Even if WoW moved from the #1 spot, it would be that far down the list which would still make it one of the top MMORPGs. I don't think that likely in 2012, but maybe in 2013. I will be so happy when it does happen. Then all of the WoW haters will finally, finally shut up. Of course then all the hate would be directed to the new number 1, because we can't be happy for the leader.
Even if WoW moved from the #1 spot, it would be that far down the list which would still make it one of the top MMORPGs. I don't think that likely in 2012, but maybe in 2013. I will be so happy when it does happen. Then all of the WoW haters will finally, finally shut up. Of course then all the hate would be directed to the new number 1, because we can't be happy for the leader.
Weird thing is when it does lose all those subs Blizzard may take a long hard look at why and then impliment changes accordingly ( and probably sack some people ) it may actually end up being something worth playing once more . But I think at the point when it goes below a certain number of monthly subs they will expand f2play to level 1-60 . I think people will be very suprised at the drops coming . There good reasons why I'm confident this will happen but I can't say them untill a certain NDA is lifted .
WoW will trail at No.2 with Rift, but WoW will remain no.1 in terms of international population, since GW2 and SWTOR won't have translations into Asian regions yet.
I'm not so sure.
GW1 had Korean and Chinese language servers running on day one. They had a catchall "International" server as well. Japanese did come later.
I have no information confirming GW2 will be released in the Asian markets on day one, but NCSoft is a Korean based parent company/publisher and GW2 was very positively received at the Korean G-Star convention.
There is actually a FAQ on the wiki that says it will only be released in English and German languages, but the interview that it's citing is only talking about the Gamescom demos. And that info is somewhat outdated because they've already done a limited demo with a Korean translation for G-Star.
My guess is that NCSoft wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot and risk alienating their major fan base, but it's just a guess.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
WoW will trail at No.2 with Rift, but WoW will remain no.1 in terms of international population, since GW2 and SWTOR won't have translations into Asian regions yet.
I'm not so sure.
GW1 had Korean and Chinese language servers running on day one. They had a catchall "International" server as well. Japanese did come later.
I have no information confirming GW2 will be released in the Asian markets on day one, but NCSoft is a Korean based parent company/publisher and GW2 was very positively received at the Korean G-Star convention.
There is actually a FAQ on the wiki that says it will only be released in English and German languages, but the interview that it's citing is only talking about the Gamescom demos. And that info is somewhat outdated because they've already done a limited demo with a Korean translation for G-Star.
My guess is that NCSoft wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot and risk alienating their major fan base, but it's just a guess.
Well if Korean and Chinese are going to be at launch, then I change my prediction to GW2 won't be released at least until second half of 2012. They have mentioned the voice-over and translation was done specifically for the G-Star Demo, so for the complete game, there is ways to go for it, considering the 60 feature film worth of dialogues.
How much WoW could a WoWhater hate, if a WoWhater could hate WoW? As much WoW as a WoWhater would, if a WoWhater could hate WoW.
WoW will trail at No.2 with Rift, but WoW will remain no.1 in terms of international population, since GW2 and SWTOR won't have translations into Asian regions yet.
I'm not so sure.
GW1 had Korean and Chinese language servers running on day one. They had a catchall "International" server as well. Japanese did come later.
I have no information confirming GW2 will be released in the Asian markets on day one, but NCSoft is a Korean based parent company/publisher and GW2 was very positively received at the Korean G-Star convention.
There is actually a FAQ on the wiki that says it will only be released in English and German languages, but the interview that it's citing is only talking about the Gamescom demos. And that info is somewhat outdated because they've already done a limited demo with a Korean translation for G-Star.
My guess is that NCSoft wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot and risk alienating their major fan base, but it's just a guess.
What's funny about that earlier comment is that Guild Wars 2 is already showing that it will be available to Koreans, in their language and it's striving to be an esport there. If the game can establish itself as an esport in Korean, then that would be a huge boost for them in the Asian market.
I expect SWTOR to be the big game of 2012. It's already showing great quality, content, classes, PvP and so on. If they have a succesful launch and they fix bugs, ballance classes and add content in a decent pace, expect this title to be the big boss for a long time. In Bioware we trust.
GW2 might be huge as well. But so far is difficult to predict their succes. We need more info and a beta. GW1 is considered a big succes due to their B2P model and their competitive PvP. I really hope they succed.
WoW will loose even more subscribers next year but they will remain with a healthy fan base.
Archage: I would not count this one as a 2012 title. I read somewhere months ago that they will release open beta on Q4 2012 in eastern market, so don't expect this title to hit western market before Q4 2013.
TERA: Don't think this one will have any succes in western market. Fast leveling asian grinder with shallow classes. Interesting combat system but not great character development.
Rift: Quality game but not sure if they can survive without going F2P after the big titles arrive. I respect Trion. They have shown great support to their product.
WoW will still have the numbers, but it will continue to decline.
Rift will decline sharply beginning in late December.
SWTOR I didn't think was going to do that well long term, but I'm starting to wonder. No way of knowing until my beta weekend comes up whether it's a game most will abandon after a couple of months or whether it has staying power. Either way, if I buy it at all, it will just be as filler, because it's really not my type of game. Points for not being fantasy based, though.
Guild Wars 2 is going to come out number one by the end of the year if it's even half as good as the information we have suggests. Always a big if, however.
I think The Secret World is going to be a surprising stunner of a game, however, it may stay more niche simply because of the setting. It's the game I'm looking forward to the most, but I expect Guild Wars 2 in particular to have a larger player base because of its fantasy setting. However, if TSW does launch smoothly, a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise go near it are going to try it and then stick around awhile.
Archeage is a good way off, but it has the potential to be a hybrid hit. However, it will be extremely niche if the pvp rulesets are extreme. Even if it's not FFA, enemy factions with the ability to pvp in all areas will sharply reduce the number of players.
Wildstar could be interesting and Age of Wulin and Otherland could also be worth checking out, but the latter two might suffer from pay to win associations, given their publishers. I forget who is doing Wildstar.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
The top mmo IN 2012 will be a toss up between SWTOR, GW2, and WOW. TSW looks promising no doubt, but not quite as promising as GW2 and SWTOR.
The really important thing to know first is, what defines being top. Is it having the most revenue? Is it having the most player base? Is it having the highest average rating? Time and time again we see that these numbers do not always agree, therefore, being top can be held by more than one game.
[...] I think GW2 will be a great game, don't get me wrong, but they have not done enough main stream advertising imho. Not enough people even know about it to really be excited about it or know enough about it. [...]
Uh, I disagree. The changes GW2 had in respect to GW1 are mostly irrelevant to me, and GW1 was extremely boring. I have no incentive to play that game or get excited about it.
Its impossible to know how many people will play GW2, anyway, just as it was with GW1 - everyone who buys the game gets counted. The company itself would even rejoice if many people would buy the game, but not many play it - less cost for them.
I think that GW2 and (this would have been Tera till D3 and Titan possiblty ) STWOR will have it. If Archage comes over all the sandbox lovers and a few others will make it pretty freakin close. Lineage Eternal I HOPE!! Will be a bit of a contender now this is all without WoW.
With wow its proably going to still be WoW. You cant take away 10m subs in a year unless its utter shutdown. Just not to probale. Now with that said i think that its going to go around this line up.
WoW will probably remain #1, but it's going to come back to the pack. If any of the new games can step up and crank out content long term, it's possible they can overtake WoW. We'll never see sub numbers like WoW had again in any MMO. Instead, we'll have the top MMOs sharing the wealth, so to speak, with less subs but spread more equally throughout the top games. For ranking, this is how I see it:
1. WoW--Still #1, and the expansion, while bizarre, will hold onto enough to keep them there. But this will be the first year in their history they are going to have to sweat for it.
2. SWTOR--They will peel a big chunk of subs from WoW. A legit chance to sell 3 million boxes for launch. I've seen enough of this game to know that they'll retain a good amount of their players for the first 6 months, too. After that, it will depend on how aggressive BW is in releasing content.
3. GW2--I guess we have to go off of box sales here. Not sure how else to judge GW2's success. It's going to be
4. Aion--not a big fan of this game, but I think the upcoming changes will give this game a nice boost, making it more accessible to Western audiences while retaining their Eastern customers.
5. Rift--they are going to get butchered by the big titles coming up, but Trion will do everything they can to hold onto whatever diehard fans remain.
6. The Secret World--Why so low? Funcom. They'll find a way to f*** this game up some way. I hope they don't, as it's a great concept, but I'm not very high on Funcom as a developer. Expect a terrible launch, a mass exodus of people leaving the game or never trying it, and then Funcom spending the next couple of years trying to dig themselves out of yet another hole. Hope I'm wrong about that.
7. Lotro--the only thing saving them right now is the freemium model. I think it's a strong game with very devoted fans, but Rise of Isengard was their last chance to show people how strong this game still was, and Turbine screwed the pooch.
*I'm assuming Archeage isn't coming out next year, so I didn't include them. And I don't know much about Wildstar, but from what I've seen, even if it comes out, I really don't see it being as popular as the 7 games I listed.
Edit: Forgot about Lineage and Tera. Don't really know enough about them to make a judgement about where they'll place on my list.
[...] I think GW2 will be a great game, don't get me wrong, but they have not done enough main stream advertising imho. Not enough people even know about it to really be excited about it or know enough about it. [...]
Uh, I disagree. The changes GW2 had in respect to GW1 are mostly irrelevant to me, and GW1 was extremely boring. I have no incentive to play that game or get excited about it.
Its impossible to know how many people will play GW2, anyway, just as it was with GW1 - everyone who buys the game gets counted. The company itself would even rejoice if many people would buy the game, but not many play it - less cost for them.
I understand about how you thought GW1 was boring. Personally, I thought it was only good, not great. But honestly, if you're discounting GW2 because you didn't like GW1 and you think it's going to be more of the same, then you're doing yourself a disservice. I am not saying this lightly when I say that it is a completely different game. It's a persistent, not instanced world. Combat is totally different and more active, with double the number of skills available. Dynamic events are new and just about completely surpass the quest model when it comes to leveling.
Maybe it's not the game for you, but if you get an opportunity for a beta or a free trial, I think you should give it a fair chance. SWTOR is not the game for me, I've tried it and won't be buying it, yet I'd still tell people the same thing, check it out and decide for yourself.
As far as how well GW2 is doing, there are ways, like for instance this revenue chart. The upticks for GW1 each correspond to standalone/expansion sales. There will also be numbers of servers to go by.
I really doubt they'd rejoice if people buy the game and don't play it. Whatever operational costs they'd be saving would be overshadowed if people decided not to buy expansion content because they weren't playing the game. Their recipe for long term success is to make content engaging enough that people want to spend money to get more of it.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
I agree with those who say that SW:TOR will likely sell more initially, and then fall off steeply in the first few months. WoW will maintain its top spot in terms of subscribers in 2012, but it will continue to decline. GW2 will sell very well initially, and will steadily climb in numbers as people learn about the game. So...
1. WoW (downward trend)
2. GW2 (upward trend)
3. SW:TOR (downward trend)
4. Secret World
5. Rift, if it goes F2P...may trend upwards a bit, otherwise, it's going to fall
Wildcards: Copernicus, if it launches around Q4...could surpass Secret World and Rift pretty quickly. WildStar? Hard to say.
The problem with including GW2 (which admittedly you have to do) is that it can only have an upward trend, as there is no sub, so every box sold will be counted, we'll never know how many of them actually play at any given time. This is the good thing about WoW, SWTOR, etc we can at least get fairly good guesses at subs since they are publicly traded companies and we can see thier game revenues (if not subs). While NCSOFT is publically traided and we'll know how much revenue GW2 generates, it is only box sales it still gives us no indication of how many people are actually playing.
Well thats the great thing about GW2, people will always play because it costs them nothing once they buy it. I still hop in to GW1 every now and then and do something with friends. Unless the game is just extremely awful most will play till bored, take a break and come back and do it all again. I mean there isn't even the mandatory item mall you get with f2p's to worry about.
I agree, and that's one of the reasons I'm really looking forward to GW2. I enjoyed the first one, and I'm pretty sure I'll enjoy the second. However, it doesn't make much sense to compare its success to a sub based game. The only true way to do that is to simply compare revenue but fans would point out that its almost guaranteed not to have as high of revenue as WoW or SWTOR due to the no sub. So when it comes to GW2 and any future B2P games its an apple to oranges comparison when talking about "success."
GW2 is the only one im confident will be a huge success after the 30 days free is over
But it might not make release soon enough to significantly impact 2012. :shrug:
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
It's not really impossible to compare GW2 (and other MMO sub models) to sub based games in terms of "success". Leaving revenue out of it, we can measure by a very measurable number of active players concurrently across all servers. It may not be a good measure of the monetary success of the game, but it's still a decent way to tell just how popular the game actually is. It could be quite difficult especially if clients/servers are region specific, but it's still very possible to get accurate or semi-accurate data to compare with.
There's your broad answer, for your extremely broad question.
I figured I get a better sense of the opinions of MMO Gamers' community from a broader question. And interestingly, it seems WoW is just one of the games that are believed to be on top by many.
I think everyone is expecting too much from gw2, I have seen this so many times on smaller scales... But the expectations of this game is now on a very large scale. If gw2 turns about to be the best game like everyone is saying it will definatly be the new WoW of 2013. The production quality is very good, yes, but is the gameplay aspect so good that u can play it constantly? Furthermore, imagine 20 million people signing up for this game, do they have the servers to upkeep that many players? WoW afterall had server problems while they were growing 2 million subs a year, not suddenly 20 million people.
If the game doesn't succeed everyone will hate every mmorpg that is out there and are waiting for something that perhaps, will never come.
Comments
In terms of subs? WoW is going to blow away everything else.
Usually a safe bet but not in 2012 theres some really stiff competition coming along and WoWs got an unbelievably weak expansion pack coming along . It would take the loss of half its subs or more for it to lose its number 1 spot but I believe that really could happen next year .
Even if WoW moved from the #1 spot, it would be that far down the list which would still make it one of the top MMORPGs. I don't think that likely in 2012, but maybe in 2013. I will be so happy when it does happen. Then all of the WoW haters will finally, finally shut up. Of course then all the hate would be directed to the new number 1, because we can't be happy for the leader.
I self identify as a monkey.
Weird thing is when it does lose all those subs Blizzard may take a long hard look at why and then impliment changes accordingly ( and probably sack some people ) it may actually end up being something worth playing once more . But I think at the point when it goes below a certain number of monthly subs they will expand f2play to level 1-60 . I think people will be very suprised at the drops coming . There good reasons why I'm confident this will happen but I can't say them untill a certain NDA is lifted .
I'm not so sure.
GW1 had Korean and Chinese language servers running on day one. They had a catchall "International" server as well. Japanese did come later.
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Territory
I have no information confirming GW2 will be released in the Asian markets on day one, but NCSoft is a Korean based parent company/publisher and GW2 was very positively received at the Korean G-Star convention.
There is actually a FAQ on the wiki that says it will only be released in English and German languages, but the interview that it's citing is only talking about the Gamescom demos. And that info is somewhat outdated because they've already done a limited demo with a Korean translation for G-Star.
My guess is that NCSoft wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot and risk alienating their major fan base, but it's just a guess.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
Well if Korean and Chinese are going to be at launch, then I change my prediction to GW2 won't be released at least until second half of 2012. They have mentioned the voice-over and translation was done specifically for the G-Star Demo, so for the complete game, there is ways to go for it, considering the 60 feature film worth of dialogues.
How much WoW could a WoWhater hate, if a WoWhater could hate WoW?
As much WoW as a WoWhater would, if a WoWhater could hate WoW.
What's funny about that earlier comment is that Guild Wars 2 is already showing that it will be available to Koreans, in their language and it's striving to be an esport there. If the game can establish itself as an esport in Korean, then that would be a huge boost for them in the Asian market.
I expect SWTOR to be the big game of 2012. It's already showing great quality, content, classes, PvP and so on. If they have a succesful launch and they fix bugs, ballance classes and add content in a decent pace, expect this title to be the big boss for a long time. In Bioware we trust.
GW2 might be huge as well. But so far is difficult to predict their succes. We need more info and a beta. GW1 is considered a big succes due to their B2P model and their competitive PvP. I really hope they succed.
WoW will loose even more subscribers next year but they will remain with a healthy fan base.
Archage: I would not count this one as a 2012 title. I read somewhere months ago that they will release open beta on Q4 2012 in eastern market, so don't expect this title to hit western market before Q4 2013.
TERA: Don't think this one will have any succes in western market. Fast leveling asian grinder with shallow classes. Interesting combat system but not great character development.
Rift: Quality game but not sure if they can survive without going F2P after the big titles arrive. I respect Trion. They have shown great support to their product.
WoW will still have the numbers, but it will continue to decline.
Rift will decline sharply beginning in late December.
SWTOR I didn't think was going to do that well long term, but I'm starting to wonder. No way of knowing until my beta weekend comes up whether it's a game most will abandon after a couple of months or whether it has staying power. Either way, if I buy it at all, it will just be as filler, because it's really not my type of game. Points for not being fantasy based, though.
Guild Wars 2 is going to come out number one by the end of the year if it's even half as good as the information we have suggests. Always a big if, however.
I think The Secret World is going to be a surprising stunner of a game, however, it may stay more niche simply because of the setting. It's the game I'm looking forward to the most, but I expect Guild Wars 2 in particular to have a larger player base because of its fantasy setting. However, if TSW does launch smoothly, a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise go near it are going to try it and then stick around awhile.
Archeage is a good way off, but it has the potential to be a hybrid hit. However, it will be extremely niche if the pvp rulesets are extreme. Even if it's not FFA, enemy factions with the ability to pvp in all areas will sharply reduce the number of players.
Wildstar could be interesting and Age of Wulin and Otherland could also be worth checking out, but the latter two might suffer from pay to win associations, given their publishers. I forget who is doing Wildstar.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
~Albert Einstein
I think the main competition will be between SWTOR, GW2 and WoW. Other MMORPGs probably will follow those three.
TOP MMORPG GAMES
World of Warcraft will remain at the top.
There's your broad answer, for your extremely broad question.
The top mmo OF 2012 will probably be GW2.
The top mmo IN 2012 will be a toss up between SWTOR, GW2, and WOW. TSW looks promising no doubt, but not quite as promising as GW2 and SWTOR.
The really important thing to know first is, what defines being top. Is it having the most revenue? Is it having the most player base? Is it having the highest average rating? Time and time again we see that these numbers do not always agree, therefore, being top can be held by more than one game.
Hello ? Diablo 3 is an online game, but not a MMO.
Uh, I disagree. The changes GW2 had in respect to GW1 are mostly irrelevant to me, and GW1 was extremely boring. I have no incentive to play that game or get excited about it.
Its impossible to know how many people will play GW2, anyway, just as it was with GW1 - everyone who buys the game gets counted. The company itself would even rejoice if many people would buy the game, but not many play it - less cost for them.
SMH
Forgot the secret world.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
WoW will probably remain #1, but it's going to come back to the pack. If any of the new games can step up and crank out content long term, it's possible they can overtake WoW. We'll never see sub numbers like WoW had again in any MMO. Instead, we'll have the top MMOs sharing the wealth, so to speak, with less subs but spread more equally throughout the top games. For ranking, this is how I see it:
1. WoW--Still #1, and the expansion, while bizarre, will hold onto enough to keep them there. But this will be the first year in their history they are going to have to sweat for it.
2. SWTOR--They will peel a big chunk of subs from WoW. A legit chance to sell 3 million boxes for launch. I've seen enough of this game to know that they'll retain a good amount of their players for the first 6 months, too. After that, it will depend on how aggressive BW is in releasing content.
3. GW2--I guess we have to go off of box sales here. Not sure how else to judge GW2's success. It's going to be
4. Aion--not a big fan of this game, but I think the upcoming changes will give this game a nice boost, making it more accessible to Western audiences while retaining their Eastern customers.
5. Rift--they are going to get butchered by the big titles coming up, but Trion will do everything they can to hold onto whatever diehard fans remain.
6. The Secret World--Why so low? Funcom. They'll find a way to f*** this game up some way. I hope they don't, as it's a great concept, but I'm not very high on Funcom as a developer. Expect a terrible launch, a mass exodus of people leaving the game or never trying it, and then Funcom spending the next couple of years trying to dig themselves out of yet another hole. Hope I'm wrong about that.
7. Lotro--the only thing saving them right now is the freemium model. I think it's a strong game with very devoted fans, but Rise of Isengard was their last chance to show people how strong this game still was, and Turbine screwed the pooch.
*I'm assuming Archeage isn't coming out next year, so I didn't include them. And I don't know much about Wildstar, but from what I've seen, even if it comes out, I really don't see it being as popular as the 7 games I listed.
Edit: Forgot about Lineage and Tera. Don't really know enough about them to make a judgement about where they'll place on my list.
I understand about how you thought GW1 was boring. Personally, I thought it was only good, not great. But honestly, if you're discounting GW2 because you didn't like GW1 and you think it's going to be more of the same, then you're doing yourself a disservice. I am not saying this lightly when I say that it is a completely different game. It's a persistent, not instanced world. Combat is totally different and more active, with double the number of skills available. Dynamic events are new and just about completely surpass the quest model when it comes to leveling.
Maybe it's not the game for you, but if you get an opportunity for a beta or a free trial, I think you should give it a fair chance. SWTOR is not the game for me, I've tried it and won't be buying it, yet I'd still tell people the same thing, check it out and decide for yourself.
As far as how well GW2 is doing, there are ways, like for instance this revenue chart. The upticks for GW1 each correspond to standalone/expansion sales. There will also be numbers of servers to go by.
I really doubt they'd rejoice if people buy the game and don't play it. Whatever operational costs they'd be saving would be overshadowed if people decided not to buy expansion content because they weren't playing the game. Their recipe for long term success is to make content engaging enough that people want to spend money to get more of it.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
I agree, and that's one of the reasons I'm really looking forward to GW2. I enjoyed the first one, and I'm pretty sure I'll enjoy the second. However, it doesn't make much sense to compare its success to a sub based game. The only true way to do that is to simply compare revenue but fans would point out that its almost guaranteed not to have as high of revenue as WoW or SWTOR due to the no sub. So when it comes to GW2 and any future B2P games its an apple to oranges comparison when talking about "success."
But it might not make release soon enough to significantly impact 2012. :shrug:
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
It's not really impossible to compare GW2 (and other MMO sub models) to sub based games in terms of "success". Leaving revenue out of it, we can measure by a very measurable number of active players concurrently across all servers. It may not be a good measure of the monetary success of the game, but it's still a decent way to tell just how popular the game actually is. It could be quite difficult especially if clients/servers are region specific, but it's still very possible to get accurate or semi-accurate data to compare with.
I figured I get a better sense of the opinions of MMO Gamers' community from a broader question. And interestingly, it seems WoW is just one of the games that are believed to be on top by many.
TOP MMORPG GAMES
I think everyone is expecting too much from gw2, I have seen this so many times on smaller scales... But the expectations of this game is now on a very large scale. If gw2 turns about to be the best game like everyone is saying it will definatly be the new WoW of 2013. The production quality is very good, yes, but is the gameplay aspect so good that u can play it constantly? Furthermore, imagine 20 million people signing up for this game, do they have the servers to upkeep that many players? WoW afterall had server problems while they were growing 2 million subs a year, not suddenly 20 million people.
If the game doesn't succeed everyone will hate every mmorpg that is out there and are waiting for something that perhaps, will never come.
Although I am also very excited about this game