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What my crystal ball tells me ...
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I'll answer this.
900k
-EU not included for Digital or Retail
-NA Digital not included
and arguably any sales after the 26th to launch not included.
All the sales following launch not included.
now you can see how 25% may be accurate.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Its only the boxed version of the game in the US, but not the boxes pre ordered in europe or the digital pre-orders.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Dont quit your day job
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
No, all I see is conjecture on your part. All we KNOW is atleast 900k pre-orders. Everything else is pure speculations.
My gaming blog
Except that SWTOR is a single player game. Bioware calling it an "MMORPG" and charging the $15 fee doesnt change the fact it is a single player RPG with some co-op/multiplayer options.
Wasn't that the point of the thread, waving crystal balls around?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Lol, enough with the single player game stuff. People grouped up more in this game then most games in years. It s not a single player game, at all. theres some parts that you can partake in as a single player aspect, as in most MMO, but at least they do it well. God this arguement is getting tiresome.
My crystal ball says...wait...what? Seriously? You can pickpocket the clothes off your mate in Skyrim? Huh. *leaves*
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I know it s funny, I pre ordered a digital copy the other day and it took almost 10 hours to complete due to high traffic, all for digital sales. I guess my 1 pre order bunged it all up. He s one of those I need proof persons or it isn t possible. Almost everyone I know thats getting this game ordered a digital copy, and i m sure we re not the only ones.
To DexterMMO or anyone else that knows the answer:
How many % of all preorders were only NA retail during previous releases of Western AAA games the last 2 years? Having those %, may give a hint about whether or not your 25% is accurate.
(Psst, see: Begging the Question. Always best to just pass on to the next post, nothing to profit from responding to it.)
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Very true
Am I the only one that thinks that TOR is going to have MORE subs after a year then it started with?
Some will be lost, sure, that always happens, but between word of mouth and positive reviews and media blitz hype and post-launch patching and expansions etc. if I was a betting man, I'd bet TOR had MORE subscribers after a year then at launch rather then less.
It's happened before, it can (and I think will) happen again.
Lots of fence sitters, lots of "wait and see" folk.
WoW got so huge because it kept bringing new people in to outpace the retention losses.
TOR is positioned to do the same.
While I agree with you, we're in a post WoW world. People expect more on launch now than they did before. So I believe SW:ToR can hold millions world wide but it really depends on how much they can provide and how fast... I mean ffs look at Rift... content patches every other month... those people are probably exhausted.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
I'm not going to give any specific predictions, but I think that SWTOR will start off very well, selling a lot of boxes, but will have weak retention.
Why?
Because the game's forte (story) is just not designed well for repeat play. A lot of folks will only go through a story one time and not want to do it again. And once you strip the story away, you essentially have a game that is a sub-par WoW.
So I just don't see many people playing this game for years and years.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Like I said... It depends on content patches... Same dlc updates that gave dragon age or fallout retention can do the same here. Respectfully speaking you could play through the game 8 times with altered/different stories.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Hehe this ^
Why do people make stupid flame bait threads of no value like this one if they aren't out to infuriate Fanboys? The whole i know better then everyone else crystalball thing is soo worn. Guess we can give the OP a attaboy in a year if he's right and ask him for winning lottery numbers
Granted, but once you do that, it's done. It may sound like a ton of content, but in the scheme of an MMORPG running for years...it really isn't.
I have doubts that BW will be able to churn out new content quick enough for people to keep subbed...but we'll see.
Also, I really think that "bite-sized" content is harmful to a heavily story based game. Story based RPGs are great because they are long and they have the time to develop a really interesting epic story. But when you start putting out little DLC patches, it's more like short stories than an epic novel. Just doesn't have the same impact.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Really mine says she is wearing nothing but heels and a smile and my wife says sure honey she can stay. Well anyway better chance of your version and m y version happening than of ToR going ftp in a year.
LOL.
How much content do you think an MMO needs at launch? I'm not saying SWTOR has enough but really how much do they need? Right now even if you play one class. If you play everything that class as to offer and actually listen tot he story you have at leat 3-4 months of content. I mean that includes class quests, pvp warzones, flashpoints, open world pvp, space combat, crafting, and operations. Theres a crap load of stuff to do in the game for months. Then you could roll another toon and do it again.
What does your crystal ball say on who will win between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona on December 10th?
my random prediction that has no proof but im bored
1 month - 3 million subs
2-6 months goes down to a million
stabilizes at a million subs until 1 year is up
goes to 500k in second year
then changes to f2p and goes back up to a million
there is my guess rofl
Playing: PO, EVE
Waiting for: WoD
Favourite MMOs: VG, EVE, FE and DDO
Any person who expresses rage and loathing for an MMO is preposterous. He or she is like a person who has put on full armor and attacked a hot fudge sundae.
Sorry, this doesn't make any sense. If anything, a good story that differs per class gives people MORE reason, not less, to continue playing in order to see all the story content from beginning to end. TOR will have the same stuff at endgame than all the other themepark games do, and even a few extras: Raids, dungeons with three different modes (including a story mode), a variety of PvP (from instanced to open world to FFA lakes), a solo planet for players at level cap, etc. Then on top of that every single class has a different story line, which is far and away more than the standard MMOs offer, as every single re-roll is the same thing you just did on your last character. So again, how does this hurt retention to have a different story for each character?
As for "sub-par WoW," where are you getting this opinion from? It's got more content at release than most MMOs release with. No game is going to release with the amount of content WoW currently has, but that's what updates are for. And if you are talking about gameplay instead of content being sub par, well...that's just not true. This game plays very well.
Your prediction would hold some merrit if the game never recieved any more content, what you recieved at launch is what you got period.
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee