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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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You know of course that when polling results for presidential elections they generate the numbers based on samplings of say 1000 people. Yet they indicate polling accuracies in the +/- a few percent... So a poll of 1000 people can fairly accurately assess the standings of 350M people. or 1 in 350000
Seems to me that even 1 in 100000 can be indicative of the larger group and with even greater accuracy than polling.
This is interesting to read http://www.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/polling.htm
Course xfire even through higher then a normal poll can have some skew in the results. Since it is a self selecting group it might be that xfire users tend to all be a certain age group or perhaps all live in a certain part of the country so maybe a greater number of xfire users like to play wow then other games or some other oddball selection. This might skew numbers between games but much less so for a specific game.
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Ethion
If Xfire numbers are meaningless, these numbers are below meaningless. Sounds like a bad guild to me. My guild is still growing, and very few people have gone inactive. Less than 5%.
Some people go inactive because they re-rolled. Or they were just parking an alt in your guild because they never had serious intentions of joining in the first place.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
HAHAHAHA LOL
Now thats funny.
The original guild I joined at launch has this problem. Not becuase they had peeps stop playing. they just had ALOT of peeps switch to a lower pop server to avoid the long que to get on the current one. the entire guikld plans on switching to a lower pop server as soon as char transfers are allowed
You do realize that players can roll alts on different servers right?
I myself have toons on 6 servers broken down by side (Republic and Empire), playstyle (PvE, PvP and RP) and time zones.
If you don't like a game don't play it, and quit running to MMORPG.com to trash it.
Another low day yesterday, maybe again downtime/maintenance?
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Yep, and a 6 hour maintenance nonetheless... could have desecrated an entire planet in 6 hours =P
I read about the maintenance but wasn't sure. Then it's like the 27th, with also 6h+ downtime , and had 53.000. Yesterday 59.000.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Exactly.
Althoug not all the highs are in week-end. But shows lows during maintenance, christmas eve, christmas, and new years eve, which seems logical.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
And tomorrow should show quite a raise in numbers.
Wonder how it will look 2 weeks from here. I've read that people are moving to alt-chars in quite many cases, but incoming Illium changes should make them play their cap-chars too. At least for the dailies/weeklies.
Here's vgchart numbers. According to their extrapolated number, there's over 2mil units sold. There should definitely be a raise in XFire numbers, as there's quite many customers that have had their copy on 2012.
It's on a slight decline in XFire (56281) which is 2876 away from the lowest after launch (53405).
Could someone expain to me some graphs on SWTOR Arena.
There's something that seems a definite cut on lowest valleys. For example EU monthly seems to have it around 100k and US at 125k. Only times when the graph penetrates these thresholds seems to be when they have shut servers down.
Just a coincidence or error in retrieving data probably?
Interesting that this SWTOR Arena is pretty much showing the same trend as XFire. Highest during last weeks of Decembre and declining a bit now. So much for XFire being useless for showing trends. But I am sure it is all a coincidence.. for sure.
My gaming blog
Xfire is crap, honetly I do not know anyone that uses it.
It's useful to show trends when you want it to show the trend that supports a position.
There's more on this thread, but I think you should be able to get it going with these.
Common sense tells me that any third party software to track what gamers are playing whether it be TOR or Microsoft Chess online IS NOT an accurate reflection of time played.
It is not Steam.
Predictions.............lol.
No one ever said it reflects time played accurately. No one should ever insist it tells amounts or use it to compare games with each other (although latter might have some relation to real world).
It shows trends. And for some magical reason it seems to be going along with the swtorarena.com graphs.
This offtopic you're pulling here has been talked all over on these boards. If you don't wish to participate on the trend speculation, you have the choice of not opening this thread.
A simple check is for example just looking at TOR and WoW figures alone: if those figures were completely representative for actual player/sub numbers, then according to XFire 5 million people (half the number of WoW) would be playing TOR now, and according to Raptr 9 million.
However, I agree that at the same time they can't just be completely dismissed, they can show overall trends in rough lines I think. Xfire is somewhat better than Raptr even, I think, bc it shows player numbers next to played hours. As for TOR, it showed I think between 9000-10k between launch and end of the year, 11k last week and about 10.5k now (10.8 yesterday).
As for the swtorarena graphs, I think they're skewed somewhat. At first I wondered if they'd have bots on all 200+ servers that were constantly polling population nonstop, but now I think it's simpler, and that they're using the server status to compile the date for the charts, just like some people did for Rift. Problem is, that the definition of the various status types isn't a constant and has a different meaning for different time periods for different servers: the meaning of 'full' and 'heavy' has changed, from what it was in the first days and week(s) to what it became when the population cap was increased. Only when the status or cap doesn't change anymore and is equal for all servers will the charts be trustworthy. I guess we're almost at that point for most servers if not already, but people'd have to make checks to be sure.The trend is out of 1 million confirmed and 2 million units sold (rumored) of SWTOR, 10,555 players using Xfire are playing TOR. Hardly an effective sample.
Just because my point collides with this failed Xfire theory does not make it anymore/anyless valid.
All of my kids off christmas break and back in school. Add in homework... chores.... (3 in college one in high school).
Four subs here. Yeah we're all playing less but not because we don't like the game. We all love it and are having fun playing it. There's just a little less time now to play it.
Trends is what XFire is good for assuming that people play about the same number of hours a day - and at the moment the average is usually 5-6 hours which is pretty much what EA have said in there press releases.
TREND 1 : the ramp up during EGA is exactly what you would expect.
TREND 2 : Pretty flat around the 75,000 hour line between 20th - 31st December. Ups and downs due to weekends, Christmas Eves, server downtime etc.
- no big rise on Christmas Day. Remember all the chatter about how Santa Claus would be delivering the game to lots of people.
- people who really wanted the game either pre-ordered or bought it on the 20th December.
TREND 3 : Small blip, 5-8%, after the 'New Year's' weekend. You can see the current XFire high water mark and it is post launch. This could be due to people having more time to play over the New Year weekend but the simple answer is additional post-Christmas sales - people going shopping with Christmas money, BestBuy gift cards etc. etc. As mentioned above the average hours per person played has usually been in the 5-6 hour mark (as I type it is 10,853 people and 56822 so just over 5 again).
- Now if the 75,000 hour line relates to EA's 1M+ registrations they talked about in their press release just before Christmas then - maybe - the 5-8% blip equate to an extra c. 100k registrations. (I believe EA would have reported 1.5M is they had 1.5)
TREND 4 : no big, huge increase post launch. No 'word of mouth' monster sales rise. No upward trajectory.
- Going forward people will play less as the shiny wears of, so even a 'flat line' could indicate increased subscriptions, and a decline may mean nothing more than people playing less (average hours played per person is a key factor)
- To early to talk about a decline at the moment imo; maybe but ...
- the 19th January will be a key date.
I agree 1st billing cycle will be telling.
Trend #1
Out of 20,766,204 registered users of Xfire 10,555 players playing SWTOR represent .0508% of total Xfire registered players playing SWTOR.
Trend #2
.0508% of Xfire users playing SWTOR represent 55,000-101,000 of total SWTOR sales (1-2 million estimate)
Good point.
^ this represents A LOT.
as it does in my house