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Star Wars: The Old Republic: Subscriptions Declining Says Analyst

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  • MephsterMephster Member Posts: 1,188

    Well let the mass exodus begin I guess. WIth Diablo 3 and GW2 right around the corner the game will die a horrible death unfortunately. The sad part is that the game isn't even 6 months old yet. I wish we had a real Star Wars mmo to play!

    Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!

    http://www.grimdawn.com/

  • ZorgoZorgo Member UncommonPosts: 2,254

    I still contend that in this market, a 30% drop in subs is normal for this, and all mmos. I also contend, that if the problem is a lack of end game content, many of those who left will return once there is something else to do.

    I think this game will still settle down with enough subs to still be one of the top populated mmos.

    There is a lot about this game that surprised and disappointed me, but I still think it is an enjoyable enough experience that it won't drop out of the top 10 mmos, especially if good development decisions are made from here on out.

  • MMOarQQMMOarQQ Member Posts: 636

    Analyst schmanalyst. The number of dead servers speaks for itself.

    R.I.P The Crucible Pits

  • JediConsularJediConsular Member Posts: 51

    Originally posted by Mephster

    Well let the mass exodus begin I guess. WIth Diablo 3 and GW2 right around the corner the game will die a horrible death unfortunately. The sad part is that the game isn't even 6 months old yet. I wish we had a real Star Wars mmo to play!

    Oh c'mon, the game isn't that bad!

    Half the problem is the absurd expectations these companies set for themselves with the marketing hype machine that ends up becoming each MMO's worst enemy.

    Please, somebody name for me one game that has come out in the last couple of years that wasn't overhyped or was soon followed with the same doom and gloom we are now seeing for SWTOR. All games lose a good portion of their customers within months after launch. It's the status quo these days. And players leaving is usually accompanied by players bitching because most feel the need to justify things publicly.

    I'm signed up, pre-ordered and ready to go for TERA later today and same goes for Guild Wars 2's beta next week, yet I guarantee that we'll hear the same complaining about how much each of those games suck, shortly after they release!

    SWTOR isn't a horrible game by any stretch, it's lack of content and the way that BioWare is mismanaging things that is the real problem.

    Once BioWare had spiced up the game with added content, a lot of players would probably have returned. However, pissing off then driving away a lot of their dedicated customers with that stupid asinine move of initially telling those that have level 50s they are their most valued customers and get a free month, may have been far more damaging than anything game related.

    Once again, piss-poor decision making by another dev company!

    My text is green because my posts are created with Willpower!
  • BademBadem Member Posts: 830

    Originally posted by Paragus1

    It's a shame that 1000 people are going to lose their jobs who had probably nothing to do with the poor decisions made at the drawing board for this game.  The entire concept that someone thought one-time consumable story content which can't be produced nearly as fast as it consumed would keep people paying a monthly fee over the long-term is silly.  They should have just made a single-player RPG or used the bloated budget to make a full length motion picture.

    is there a source for the 1000 job losses?

     

    Plus can you name one game that within 3 months of launch had a fully functioning end game content? 10 years + MMO experince I cannot think of one game that had fully functioning End Game content at launch (of those that I have played)

     

     

  • TellaxTellax Member Posts: 22

    their problem is that they are trying to make this into a business....  (don't get me wrong).. 

     

    Like..  their main goal seems to have been (from the start) "ohh, we're gonna be epic, we're gonna have x-set of features and it's gonna be (guess what) epic..."  and they've been spazzing over those damn sub perscriptions forever...

     

    it's like the same principle as being a kid and having a birthday party and trying to predict how many presents you are going to get, then.. being a retard you publish alk loudly about it to everyone.. then when the party comes.. you end up getting jack ****....

     

    I swear... EA and now Bioware.. are just a bunch of greedy nogood tards that have lost all sense from their starting point....    it's pathetic and sad.... 

  • MMOarQQMMOarQQ Member Posts: 636

    Originally posted by Obidom

     

    Plus can you name one game that within 3 months of launch had a fully functioning end game content? 10 years + MMO experince I cannot think of one game that had fully functioning End Game content at launch (of those that I have played)

     

     

    Must we always debate this? "Well everything else sucks.. herr herr"

    If anything you'd think that Bioware with their 200 million dollar budget could have innovated just a little bit and reinforced the end game.

    If this is such a standard failing in the MMO genre, then couldn't these "industry leaders" have mitigated its effects?

    This is the perfect example of why throwing money around instead of talent is a monumental waste.

  • oubersoubers Member UncommonPosts: 855

    do they realy pay these analysts for bringing old news???

     

    image
  • Paragus1Paragus1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,741

    Originally posted by Obidom

    Originally posted by Paragus1

    It's a shame that 1000 people are going to lose their jobs who had probably nothing to do with the poor decisions made at the drawing board for this game.  The entire concept that someone thought one-time consumable story content which can't be produced nearly as fast as it consumed would keep people paying a monthly fee over the long-term is silly.  They should have just made a single-player RPG or used the bloated budget to make a full length motion picture.

    is there a source for the 1000 job losses?

     

    Sure.

    http://www.gamespot.com/news/ea-laying-off-up-to-1000-report-6371851

  • musicmannmusicmann Member UncommonPosts: 1,095

    I honestly believe that this is the best thing that could happen to this genre. When developers stop making SP COOP GAMES, and start making VIRTUAL WORLD ONLINE MMORPG's once again, then the genre will be heading back in the right direction. For too many yrs. now, lazy AAA dev companies have pushed these awful ideas and systems that has turned this genre into something different. I say, it is time for the old fat cats to go and the smaller companies with new and innovative ideas that want to create real mmorpg's to get their due and the finance's they need to do it right and in a timely manner.

    TOR was nothing more than a fast cash grab for EA and nothing more. They created a GAME that they knew would only satisfy the SP console KOTOR fans and figured if they could get enough money up front then it would be a success. They were wrong in my opinion.

  • WorstluckWorstluck Member Posts: 1,269



    Originally posted by oubers

    do they realy pay these analysts for bringing old news???





     










     

     

    I know right.  I am in the wrong line of work.  I think most of us could have figured this out.

     

    And whoa, whoa, whoa....A news story that paints SWTOR in a negative light?  Maybe the game really is losing some steam :D



     

    image

  • flynn444flynn444 Member UncommonPosts: 67
    "Momentum appears to have stalled" is the analyst's basis for thinking subscriptions will decline. That's thin gruel for a prediction. I would think competition from the release of other A-list titles like Guild Wars 2 would have greater impact. As a SWTOR player since release, stalling momentum is not the impression I get. The recent update has resulted in the largest number of players in the game I've ever seen. Coupled with the forthcoming release of the dungeon finder and BW's decent track record so far of pushing out content, I think the game has juice enough in its legs. Although I think it's unlikely, it wouldn't surprise me at all if subscriptions actually stayed the same or increased.

  • GoldenArrowGoldenArrow Member UncommonPosts: 1,186

    I'd be VERY suprised if SWTOR had over 1 million subs by 2013

    Bioware is rather good in pouring crap over the players.

  • BademBadem Member Posts: 830

    Originally posted by MMOarQQ

    Originally posted by Obidom

     

    Plus can you name one game that within 3 months of launch had a fully functioning end game content? 10 years + MMO experince I cannot think of one game that had fully functioning End Game content at launch (of those that I have played)

     

     

    Must we always debate this? "Well everything else sucks.. herr herr"

    If anything you'd think that Bioware with their 200 million dollar budget could have innovated just a little bit and reinforced the end game.

    If this is such a standard failing in the MMO genre, then couldn't these "industry leaders" have mitigated its effects?

    This is the perfect example of why throwing money around instead of talent is a monumental waste.

    It simply goes to show that maybe the leveling curve was not steep enough? players found it far too easy to blast through to end game content. Endgame content currently comprises or hardmode FP (for PvE loot) Level 50 PvP (For PvP Loot) Ops (for raids)

     

    This is a LOT more than most games had at launch... and 1.2 brought in another FP and HM for players.

     

    EVERY single MMO has Endgame grinding, just in different ways,

    SWTOR grind out commendations to get the gear you want...

    Vanguard grind out raids for souls to craft the endgame gear you want...

    WoW Easy mod PUG raids to grind the gear you want...

     

    SWTOR spent the money on the STORY rather than the endgame... hence why 50s are in 'The Prelude'

    SWTOR already advised they intend a content patch every month. I suspect the only thing that is gonna slow them down is all the Voice acting (unless they have it all in the can already)

     

  • dominiadominia Member Posts: 191

    Not currently subbed but SWTOR's servers are not all as dead as some would lead you to believe. Just a quick run down of TorStatus will show quite a few server with heavy load at peak hours of the day.

    Tor isn't in dire straights just yet, but it is at a major turning point.

    Currently Playing: GW2
    Retired: Shadowbane, DAoC, WoW, FFXI, Eve Online, SWToR

    The Aphelion MMO Blog - GW2 Initial Impressions

  • sikakoirasikakoira Member Posts: 9

    It would be miracle if this game has over 500k subscriptions in 2013.

  • HurvartHurvart Member Posts: 565

    Originally posted by oubers

    do they realy pay these analysts for bringing old news???

     

    I think analysts and "experts" can be important. Some people never believe anything regardless how obvious it is. Even if they experience it themselves they refuse to believe. But if some analyst tells them it is true they suddenly think its the absolute truth.

    And I think a job is a job. And its good that analyst can get some money and food on the table. If people started to think they dont need them more jobs would be lost.

  • NitthNitth Member UncommonPosts: 3,904


    Originally posted by sikakoira
    It would be miracle if this game has over 500k subscriptions in 2013.

    500k is still good.

    image
    TSW - AoC - Aion - WOW - EVE - Fallen Earth - Co - Rift - || XNA C# Java Development

  • musicmannmusicmann Member UncommonPosts: 1,095

    Originally posted by Obidom

    Originally posted by Paragus1

    It's a shame that 1000 people are going to lose their jobs who had probably nothing to do with the poor decisions made at the drawing board for this game.  The entire concept that someone thought one-time consumable story content which can't be produced nearly as fast as it consumed would keep people paying a monthly fee over the long-term is silly.  They should have just made a single-player RPG or used the bloated budget to make a full length motion picture.

    is there a source for the 1000 job losses?

     

    Plus can you name one game that within 3 months of launch had a fully functioning end game content? 10 years + MMO experince I cannot think of one game that had fully functioning End Game content at launch (of those that I have played)

     

     

    People like yourself that think a mmorpg needs this so called endgame, is the main reason why we have these crapola games that come each yr. MMORPG's are about virtual world and communtiy building, that has the tools to deal with combat but on a equal level with out of combat systems that build player interdepenency with a real player economy. There should never be a start and and this so called end game finish. From the first minute login, a player should be set in this virtual world that has many tools and systems to let the player figure out what they want to do and how they want to play within the confines of the game. There are many other ways to enhance the overall playing expierience and add in content that has nothing to do with a rat on the wheel gear grind.

  • KabaalKabaal Member UncommonPosts: 3,042

    However silly all these analyst reports on whether a potatoe will be more than 4 inches in circumferance or a game will have x amount subs next month are its nice to see MMORPG doing a negative article on one of the big name games for once.. For a while there things were getting a bit on the too positive side.

  • Cod_EyeCod_Eye Member UncommonPosts: 1,016

    Its not just end game, its the whole package, the journey, stagnent npc's, fast levelling, to name a few.  I played Beta and said then I wouldnt get it, but thought maybe i'm not giving it a chance, so I ended up buying it, I should of stuck by my original decision and saved myself some money.

    Some people are liking it and fair dues to them, but its not what I call an MMO, I played FFXIV longer than SWtoR and even though that was bad at least it felt like an MMO.

  • ValentinaValentina Member RarePosts: 2,104

    Um, a game launching with 1.7 mil and having over 1 million at all this close after launch is pretty fantastic. Considering WoW had 350k during it's first year entirely, this is still impressive. The numbers have actually been increasing over the last  2-3 weeks, you can see it in the server selection there's more servers being populated again  when there had been a decline before.

     

    Also, this is hearsay/rumor and an "analyst". Funny how when analysts say good things, nobody believes them, but when they say negative things, everyone believes them...Hahaha..

  • EscapehatchEscapehatch Member Posts: 10

    I do not envy someone wanting to make an MMO with a big IP these days.  The guys fronting the money live by a single mission statement "Do not take any risks".  Make the same game that's popular already and hope that our IP will draw subscribers away and make us rich.

    The problem is that game is already out and people are already playing it, and in the case of World of Warcraft, many have invested years of work into it.  So your game needs to compete with a game that has had many years to create its content.

    What are your options?

    1. Slow initial character leveling/development so it takes months to get to "end game" and gives you time to work out bugs and get something cool ready.  And then force them to take months to "finish" each end game item giving you months to work on the next one.

    No, players will just go back to the game they've already put years of work in to.  The days of the "grind" are gone.  If a casual player can't get from 0 to max level in three months (which translates to a week for more deidcated players) people won't play... because that's about how long it takes in WoW now.  But WoW has weeks and weeks and weeks of endgame content already, so they can get away with that.

    2. Create a rich single player experience that players will want to do over and over again (with other characters), rather than focusing on end game, buying you time to work out bugs and get end game content ready.

    Good strategy, if it's 1998.  Players are impatient and fickle now.  Very few want a story or immersion.  If they did they wouldn't name their character "XxXPwnzNoobzXxX".  And the players who are into story and immersion aren't the ones who are going to power grind to max level and quit because there is no end game.  So either way you've already won them over.

    3. Create a world where players can generate their own content and stories.  Free for all PvP zones in addition to the standard RvR zones (or servers).  Player housing.  Player cities.  Castles/bases that can change hands through PvP.  Player run shops and economy.  Intricate crafting.  Social tools to allow maximum customization of your character.  Players will get lost in all of the options while you busy your team working out bugs and adding new content.

    Wait, no, that sounds like a risk.  That's not what they do in World of Warcraft, so that's not a good strategy for making money.

    Never mind.

  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,973

    Originally posted by dominia

    Not currently subbed but SWTOR's servers are not all as dead as some would lead you to believe. Just a quick run down of TorStatus will show quite a few server with heavy load at peak hours of the day.

    Some servers will stay heavy load because people from dying servers migrate to them in order to find friends to play with.

    I don't think anyone has said that TOR would be dying, it still has a large population of players. It's just losing a lot of that population.

     
  • BademBadem Member Posts: 830

    Originally posted by musicmann

    Originally posted by Obidom


    Originally posted by Paragus1

    It's a shame that 1000 people are going to lose their jobs who had probably nothing to do with the poor decisions made at the drawing board for this game.  The entire concept that someone thought one-time consumable story content which can't be produced nearly as fast as it consumed would keep people paying a monthly fee over the long-term is silly.  They should have just made a single-player RPG or used the bloated budget to make a full length motion picture.

    is there a source for the 1000 job losses?

     

    Plus can you name one game that within 3 months of launch had a fully functioning end game content? 10 years + MMO experince I cannot think of one game that had fully functioning End Game content at launch (of those that I have played)

     

     

    People like yourself that think a mmorpg needs this so called endgame, is the main reason why we have these crapola games that come each yr. MMORPG's are about virtual world and communtiy building, that has the tools to deal with combat but on a equal level with out of combat systems that build player interdepenency with a real player economy. There should never be a start and and this so called end game finish. From the first minute login, a player should be set in this virtual world that has many tools and systems to let the player figure out what they want to do and how they want to play within the confines of the game. There are many other ways to enhance the overall playing expierience and add in content that has nothing to do with a rat on the wheel gear grind.

    You seem to have taken the wrong end of the stick when it came to my post.

     

    I do not believe any game needs to have complete endgame experience at launch, something to tide players over (those who PL to max levels for Epeen bragging rights)

    I have taken 3 months to hit level 50, just started my alts, I play for the story not the endgame content.

This discussion has been closed.