"This is the first such indicator, one that says that maybe the cash shop model is not as fail safe as the majority once thought, despite being sold to us as the 'inevitable' and 'unstoppable' future."
Can you link to any page by a poster, gamer, publisher or developer that ever claimed F2P was a guaranteed system or that it would save a game despite its flaws*?
not saying Smed is right,
but Smed claimed last year that SWTOR will be the last "large scale" mmo that will use a sub
In my opinion (SWTOR) is going to be the last large scale MMO to use the traditional subscription business model. Why do I think that? Simply put, the world is moving on from this model and over time people aren't going to accept this method. I'm sure I'm going to hear a lot about this statement. But I am positive I'm right.
That's unrelated to the question, but thank you for the quote from Smed.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Now, we cannot know anything for sure because the industry is so full of BS and spin but It seems, in the mid to long term, that cash shop is maybe not the magic bullet for 'failed' games many have evangalised.
Thoughts on this early morning thought bubble?
This has always been the case. There is a reason that Turbine doesn't report about LOTRO CS sales anymore. The indictators have always been there, but there was never any " evidence " that this is the case.
Given the same game, it is obvious why the F2P model is better for consumers.
- you get a large part, if not all, of the game FREE.
- you have a choice of how much, if any, to spend.
- there is NO commitment, you can hop as many F2P games as you like.
I prob will never play a sub MMO again after my WOW annual pass is up. In fact, i think even WOW will go F2P in a year or 2.
I doubt WoW will go F2P any time soon. They are still over 9m subs, and that will increase when mists of pandaria comes out. They lost some subs when SWTOR came out, more when Diablo 3 came out, and a few when TSW came out. They still are really not in any kind of trouble though. 9m + subs is a ridiculous amount of revenue per month.
NCSoft sees Aion suffer a drastic decrease in cash shop sales.
Considering how jaundiced the information we are fed about cash shop revenue models by the industry (I won't go into my theory of why we are fed such a one sided story, that's for another thread), we are forced to seize on small pieces of information as indicators. This is the first such indicator, one that says that maybe the cash shop model is not as fail safe as the majority once thought, despite being sold to us as the 'inevitable' and 'unstoppable' future.
Now, we cannot know anything for sure because the industry is so full of BS and spin but It seems, in the mid to long term, that cash shop is maybe not the magic bullet for 'failed' games many have evangalised.
Maybe an industry more intent on selling us a revenue model then designing great games needs to have a think on their priorities.
Game first.
Thoughts on this early morning thought bubble?
I agree with the gist of your post from the outset. I've been shaking my head at all the hoopla over Cash Shops for a few years now, since they started taking hold in the Western market. They're designed with the developers' and publishers' pockets in mind, not the player experience.
It requires one to step back from all the terminology, hype and marketing, to ignore the word "free!" being thrown around. You have to take a real, critical look at the whole picture to see exactly how F2P/Cash Shop MMOs are designed and set up. What methods they use. How known factors of human behavior are heavily exploited.
I suspect there haven't been many people interested in doing that. But maybe that's changing. For myself, the moment tries telling me a product they poured millions of dollars into producing, and continue to pour more into supporting it is "100% free!", I become extremely skeptical, and start doing my homework by scrutinizing everything.
That players can "test the waters" without paying anything, and that they get more people funneling through to check it out are secondary benefits of this revenue model that look great in PR releases and marketing spin. They are not what the model is designed around. Maybe people are finally seeing past the spin, and waking up to that fact? I'd like to think so.
That said, a-freaking-men to the bit in orange. The reason I prefer the subscription model over F2P/Cash Shop is because I much prefer knowing that the money I'm paying month to month for my gaming experience is actually going back into enhancing, expanding and improving my gaming experience; not on figuring out new ways to try and entice me to spend more $$$ in the cash shop.
Originally posted by Vesavius http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/08/08/ncsoft-weathers-6m-loss-in-q2/ NCSoft sees Aion suffer a drastic decrease in cash shop sales. Considering how jaundiced the information we are fed about cash shop revenue models by the industry (I won't go into my theory of why we are fed such a one sided story, that's for another thread), we are forced to seize on small pieces of information as indicators. This is the first such indicator, one that says that maybe the cash shop model is not as fail safe as the majority once thought, despite being sold to us as the 'inevitable' and 'unstoppable' future. Now, we cannot know anything for sure because the industry is so full of BS and spin but It seems, in the mid to long term, that cash shop is maybe not the magic bullet for 'failed' games many have evangalised. Maybe an industry more intent on selling us a revenue model then designing great games needs to have a think on their priorities.Game first. Thoughts on this early morning thought bubble?
Completely misleading.
The important factor you are missing out or ignoring, is that NCSoft is primarily eastern publisher. They make their money in Asia, not in NA or EU therefore your "point" is very moot.
Eastern market is nothing like western market, they both have their own lives.
Vesavius you are letting you own feelings about cashshops cloud your judgment and its not the future its the here and now get used to it.
I make no judgements on the model in this thread. I simply offer up possibilities and ask questions.
As for accepting 'how it is' and 'letting it lie'... well, no. With the utter lack of critical industry discussion of the model and it's mid to long term future and effect on the genre I like to talk openly about it.
You just need to stop railing against my doing so now and get used to it.
You cannot kid a kidder Vesavius I've been around these boards long enough to know your motives here, this is an agenda thread not a critcal discussion as all the evidence if you want to see it is there, the success of cashshop games are blowing away that of sub based games but you decide to pick on a game that failed as sub based in the west and now might be going the same route as a freemium game but convienently ignore the fact that Nexon are one of the rising stars of the MMO world and now own a big stake in Ncsoft and that all the other companies I mention are expanding their rosters with the next batch of F2P games starting to rival the production values of sub games, Age Of Wulin/Wushu, Swordsmen, Planetside 2 while sub based games are struggling to survive.
Also how about the reverse STO bombed as a p2p and now that its a cashshop game look at all that advertising PWE are doing on this site, now where'd that money come from?
Well, you seem as devoted to silencing Vesavius as he is to sharing his thoughts on the topic, or asking for others.
So, what would your agenda be, then, by continuously trying to get him to "let it lie"?
What is your end-goal? To silence any dissent or discussion about the other side of the topic, because you're personally a-okay with it?
If you aren't interested in the topic, you can simply choose not to read or participate in the thread. Yet here you are, telling him, essentially, to "shut up about it".
So what stake do you have in the F2P/Cash Shop world that you're so eager to silence someone else's dissenting opinions of it?
Originally posted by Gdemami Completely misleading.
The important factor you are missing out or ignoring, is that NCSoft is primarily eastern publisher. They make their money in Asia, not in NA or EU therefore your "point" is very moot.
Eastern market is nothing like western market, they both have their own lives.
East or West it doesn't matter. If sales drop considerably in either region it still provides the same basic information. The only difference would be the amount of loss.
Originally posted by thinktank001 East or West it doesn't matter. If sales drop considerably in either region it still provides the same basic information. The only difference would be the amount of loss.
Mixing apples and oranges never provides same information.
Blade and Soul just released in the asian market and is apparently extremely popular. Why would people pay in Aion's cash shop instead of B&S.
Maybe F2P games don't compete with each other that much but their cash shops certainly do and cash shops are often more attractive at the release of a game.
I don't really think it's odd... Aion has one of those cash shops with mostly useless items as far as gameplay goes.
Companies are trying to mutate the CS model by offering cosmetic items and all this junk when the companies that really profit from the FTP model offer items with substance.
Will be interesting to see how GW2 fairs with a similar CS.
TSW is going to have problems with their shop too, unless they start figuring out how to use it. The thing is, I will buy things from the shops, if there are interesting items there. TSW has one of the best clothing systems in gaming, yet thet have barely put anything worth buying in the shop. I have credits sitting in there just waiting for something cool to buy. They also have the ability to sell things like castings for weapons to make them look special/cooler, without selling actual weapons, yet there is none of that in the store. Their system supposers stuff like hats, headphones, jewelry, etc, and all we get is rather yawn-inspiring basic clothing in there.
I love the game, but so far they have no clue how to monetize their shop. Luckily the game has a sub too... haha.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
3. Massively's article put some words in there, which are factually not true or missleading at best. Their article not only depictured the situation much worse than it is (infact it was not a "bad" quarter at all) with onsided reporting, but also made false/missleading statements either.
Not a bad quarter? NCsoft reported that Aion sales dropped 33% from Q2 2011. Overall for the company it probably wasn't bad, but Aion definitely didn't help them any.
IMHO, I think you are reading too much into what is being reported, and taking it a little too personal.
I think most players spend about the same amount of money every month on games so the idea that moving all games to F2P would increase the profit of all games seems like wishful thinking from EA and Activision to me.
When DDO converted it got a huge advantage against other games since it was one of the few games with a certain payment model but as more and more games convert they just move the same players between those games.
There are of course some people with huge wallets that spends loads on microtransactions but then again there are plenty of people that never buys anything.
The failure of Aion's cash shop has more to do with it being a bad game and unattractive prices rather than concept of the cash shop itself. L2 use the same cash shop and it's doing fine.
That will mean NCSoft will have to add cash shop design aggresive design that is most well known from asian f2p games but also exist in some f2p / freemium western titles recently.
So that IMHO will mean - lockboxes, p2 boosts / fail-safe for end-game enchanting, higher prices and more indirect or direct advntage aimed at 'whales' and end-game players.
Take note that most freemium titles also have now lockboxes. Something that was frowned upon when f2p / freemium started to take place in mainstream western titles few years ago like EQ2X, DDO, Lotro.
Now it is almost standard thing in CS.
Nowadays COMPETITION in f2p / freemium is much higher AND whole mmorpg market is oversaturated.
That will mean that CS will see more and more things that were known from 'f2p asian gridners' and frowned upon by majority of western mmorpg population in the past.
Cause corporations need to meet their sales / revenue targets & want to increase them endlessly (after all that is their obligation to shareholders) and that realisitcally can be done by expanding Cash Shops in games that rely on microtransactions CS for their revenue.
Totally not surprising and there were people that were saying this few years ago when f2p / freemium thing started.
Vesavius you are letting you own feelings about cashshops cloud your judgment and its not the future its the here and now get used to it.
I make no judgements on the model in this thread. I simply offer up possibilities and ask questions.
As for accepting 'how it is' and 'letting it lie'... well, no. With the utter lack of critical industry discussion of the model and it's mid to long term future and effect on the genre I like to talk openly about it.
You just need to stop railing against my doing so now and get used to it.
You cannot kid a kidder Vesavius I've been around these boards long enough to know your motives here, this is an agenda thread not a critcal discussion as all the evidence if you want to see it is there, the success of cashshop games are blowing away that of sub based games but you decide to pick on a game that failed as sub based in the west and now might be going the same route as a freemium game but convienently ignore the fact that Nexon are one of the rising stars of the MMO world and now own a big stake in Ncsoft and that all the other companies I mention are expanding their rosters with the next batch of F2P games starting to rival the production values of sub games, Age Of Wulin/Wushu, Swordsmen, Planetside 2 while sub based games are struggling to survive.
Also how about the reverse STO bombed as a p2p and now that its a cashshop game look at all that advertising PWE are doing on this site, now where'd that money come from?
Well, you seem as devoted to silencing Vesavius as he is to sharing his thoughts on the topic, or asking for others.
So, what would your agenda be, then, by continuously trying to get him to "let it lie"?
What is your end-goal? To silence any dissent or discussion about the other side of the topic, because you're personally a-okay with it?
If you aren't interested in the topic, you can simply choose not to read or participate in the thread. Yet here you are, telling him, essentially, to "shut up about it".
So what stake do you have in the F2P/Cash Shop world that you're so eager to silence someone else's dissenting opinions of it?
When you have zero argument and a known dislike of the free2play concept I call you out on it its that simple. Put up a valid argument and I'll debate it, Vesavius tried this same thing a while ago, he's trying to prove his views correct by fabricating evidence, thats a strawman argument and I'm not the only one calling him out on that. I also did go on to prove him wrong but he refrained from reading that bit, I wonder why? the truth about his motives was put up for him to see? maybe I'm not sure. Also he's also gone awol from this thread as it hasn't gone the way he wanted the reality is that the industry has moved on to a f2p/freemium payment model and you have to accept that I'm afraid or put your money into the last few sub based games to prove your point.
I personally feel this move is great for the consumer as it gives freedom and choice on how we consume our entertainment thats my motive. Also I will accept someones opinion if its backed up with facts and research which this threads OP has none.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
Originally posted by Sukiyaki 2. NCSoft is doing fine with two other MMORPGs with the same pricing model. P2P plus limited cashshop. In fact the 14 year old Lineage 1 alone made a quarter of WoWs worldwide revenues primarily because of a successfuly implendetcashshop. If anything the latest reports only proof good games sell even better with a good cashshop model on top of the payment model.
In the 2nd quarter 2012 Lineage 1 made $51.7 million in revenue.
In the 2nd quarter 2012 online subscriptions for Activision Blizzard made $448 million in revenue.
So, unless you can prove that CoD Elite made $250 million in revenue you are wrong. But not just wrong, I mean WAY WRONG because CoD Elite doesnt make a lot in revenue.
One last thing, all of NCSoft's MMOs combined made $114.7 million which is about a quarter of what WoW and CoD made. So, you kinda got the "quarter" part right.
Like you said, game first. The sooner companies realize players want to play a game and not some piece of crap product designed to milk cash cows, the better. Chances are though it'll take a lot more to happen, but I think it's already started.
Now, let us see how this ends.
yes if they ever figure out we all arent made of money.
Im not paying ridiculous prices for a game that hasnt even been finished
i own gw2 and not have to pay over and over to "beta" test the game which some would say your paying them to get their game to final stages,but in this case im investing money in a game i know will keep me entertained and not bleed me dry.
cash items are optional which is fine by me as long as im not required to buy something
i also own aion and when i beta tested it i liked it after it came out im was not as impressed as alot of things i liked got dropped or changed.
Comments
While I would have tried to put it a little more tactfully, this pretty much sums up my view of the situation, a realistic view IMO.
Aion is more advanced that most "new" games in regards to custamization, gameplay, interface, and general feel for the game.
Most new games like TSW and SWTOR bow down before Aion (engine + interface). Yeah Aion still will be popular.
Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.
That's unrelated to the question, but thank you for the quote from Smed.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
This has always been the case. There is a reason that Turbine doesn't report about LOTRO CS sales anymore. The indictators have always been there, but there was never any " evidence " that this is the case.
I doubt WoW will go F2P any time soon. They are still over 9m subs, and that will increase when mists of pandaria comes out. They lost some subs when SWTOR came out, more when Diablo 3 came out, and a few when TSW came out. They still are really not in any kind of trouble though. 9m + subs is a ridiculous amount of revenue per month.
I agree with the gist of your post from the outset. I've been shaking my head at all the hoopla over Cash Shops for a few years now, since they started taking hold in the Western market. They're designed with the developers' and publishers' pockets in mind, not the player experience.
It requires one to step back from all the terminology, hype and marketing, to ignore the word "free!" being thrown around. You have to take a real, critical look at the whole picture to see exactly how F2P/Cash Shop MMOs are designed and set up. What methods they use. How known factors of human behavior are heavily exploited.
I suspect there haven't been many people interested in doing that. But maybe that's changing. For myself, the moment tries telling me a product they poured millions of dollars into producing, and continue to pour more into supporting it is "100% free!", I become extremely skeptical, and start doing my homework by scrutinizing everything.
That players can "test the waters" without paying anything, and that they get more people funneling through to check it out are secondary benefits of this revenue model that look great in PR releases and marketing spin. They are not what the model is designed around. Maybe people are finally seeing past the spin, and waking up to that fact? I'd like to think so.
That said, a-freaking-men to the bit in orange. The reason I prefer the subscription model over F2P/Cash Shop is because I much prefer knowing that the money I'm paying month to month for my gaming experience is actually going back into enhancing, expanding and improving my gaming experience; not on figuring out new ways to try and entice me to spend more $$$ in the cash shop.
Completely misleading.
The important factor you are missing out or ignoring, is that NCSoft is primarily eastern publisher. They make their money in Asia, not in NA or EU therefore your "point" is very moot.
Eastern market is nothing like western market, they both have their own lives.
Well, you seem as devoted to silencing Vesavius as he is to sharing his thoughts on the topic, or asking for others.
So, what would your agenda be, then, by continuously trying to get him to "let it lie"?
What is your end-goal? To silence any dissent or discussion about the other side of the topic, because you're personally a-okay with it?
If you aren't interested in the topic, you can simply choose not to read or participate in the thread. Yet here you are, telling him, essentially, to "shut up about it".
So what stake do you have in the F2P/Cash Shop world that you're so eager to silence someone else's dissenting opinions of it?
East or West it doesn't matter. If sales drop considerably in either region it still provides the same basic information. The only difference would be the amount of loss.
Mixing apples and oranges never provides same information.
Blade and Soul just released in the asian market and is apparently extremely popular. Why would people pay in Aion's cash shop instead of B&S.
Maybe F2P games don't compete with each other that much but their cash shops certainly do and cash shops are often more attractive at the release of a game.
TSW is going to have problems with their shop too, unless they start figuring out how to use it. The thing is, I will buy things from the shops, if there are interesting items there. TSW has one of the best clothing systems in gaming, yet thet have barely put anything worth buying in the shop. I have credits sitting in there just waiting for something cool to buy. They also have the ability to sell things like castings for weapons to make them look special/cooler, without selling actual weapons, yet there is none of that in the store. Their system supposers stuff like hats, headphones, jewelry, etc, and all we get is rather yawn-inspiring basic clothing in there.
I love the game, but so far they have no clue how to monetize their shop. Luckily the game has a sub too... haha.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
Not a bad quarter? NCsoft reported that Aion sales dropped 33% from Q2 2011. Overall for the company it probably wasn't bad, but Aion definitely didn't help them any.
IMHO, I think you are reading too much into what is being reported, and taking it a little too personal.
I think most players spend about the same amount of money every month on games so the idea that moving all games to F2P would increase the profit of all games seems like wishful thinking from EA and Activision to me.
When DDO converted it got a huge advantage against other games since it was one of the few games with a certain payment model but as more and more games convert they just move the same players between those games.
There are of course some people with huge wallets that spends loads on microtransactions but then again there are plenty of people that never buys anything.
Not surprising.
That will mean NCSoft will have to add cash shop design aggresive design that is most well known from asian f2p games but also exist in some f2p / freemium western titles recently.
So that IMHO will mean - lockboxes, p2 boosts / fail-safe for end-game enchanting, higher prices and more indirect or direct advntage aimed at 'whales' and end-game players.
Take note that most freemium titles also have now lockboxes. Something that was frowned upon when f2p / freemium started to take place in mainstream western titles few years ago like EQ2X, DDO, Lotro.
Now it is almost standard thing in CS.
Nowadays COMPETITION in f2p / freemium is much higher AND whole mmorpg market is oversaturated.
That will mean that CS will see more and more things that were known from 'f2p asian gridners' and frowned upon by majority of western mmorpg population in the past.
Cause corporations need to meet their sales / revenue targets & want to increase them endlessly (after all that is their obligation to shareholders) and that realisitcally can be done by expanding Cash Shops in games that rely on microtransactions CS for their revenue.
Totally not surprising and there were people that were saying this few years ago when f2p / freemium thing started.
When you have zero argument and a known dislike of the free2play concept I call you out on it its that simple. Put up a valid argument and I'll debate it, Vesavius tried this same thing a while ago, he's trying to prove his views correct by fabricating evidence, thats a strawman argument and I'm not the only one calling him out on that. I also did go on to prove him wrong but he refrained from reading that bit, I wonder why? the truth about his motives was put up for him to see? maybe I'm not sure. Also he's also gone awol from this thread as it hasn't gone the way he wanted the reality is that the industry has moved on to a f2p/freemium payment model and you have to accept that I'm afraid or put your money into the last few sub based games to prove your point.
I personally feel this move is great for the consumer as it gives freedom and choice on how we consume our entertainment thats my motive. Also I will accept someones opinion if its backed up with facts and research which this threads OP has none.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
In the 2nd quarter 2012 online subscriptions for Activision Blizzard made $448 million in revenue.
So, unless you can prove that CoD Elite made $250 million in revenue you are wrong. But not just wrong, I mean WAY WRONG because CoD Elite doesnt make a lot in revenue.
One last thing, all of NCSoft's MMOs combined made $114.7 million which is about a quarter of what WoW and CoD made. So, you kinda got the "quarter" part right.
yes if they ever figure out we all arent made of money.
Im not paying ridiculous prices for a game that hasnt even been finished
i own gw2 and not have to pay over and over to "beta" test the game which some would say your paying them to get their game to final stages,but in this case im investing money in a game i know will keep me entertained and not bleed me dry.
cash items are optional which is fine by me as long as im not required to buy something
i also own aion and when i beta tested it i liked it after it came out im was not as impressed as alot of things i liked got dropped or changed.