SWtOR is a failure because of it’s mediocre design, poor execution, squandering of the best intellectual property in the world and it’s huge budget.
There’s nothing wrong with F2P, but this is a Hail Mary play. The game was not conceived as F2P, huge numbers of players have already played it and formed an impression plus I don’t see much being done to address the core issues. The only upside, and it’s huge, is that it’s Star Wars. But we’ve already seen in two cases, that this brand alone isn’t sufficient to save a game. EA/BW thinking that going to F2P will turn the game around strikes me as the same sort of ignorance that got the game into the situation it’s currently in.
I find it very interesting that many people feel the game is a failure based on current profitability with an assumed 500K subscribers verse the guesses in the ballpark of $100-150 million development cost. Either way, without knowing hard numbers, just using the estimates posters toss around on this site which seem very low in my opinion, people say that 2 million customers bought the game originally, then about 3 months in 1.5 million subscribers left the game. Some quick math here considering we are in August now. 2 million times $60 bucks equals $120 million for initial release revenue. 2 million subscribers got there first month free and then paid for roughly 2 more months of service at 15 bucks per month, so 2 million times 30 bucks equals $60 million for first 3 months of subscrition revenue. Now, lets say 500K subscribers at $15 per month for 6 months assuming all 1.5 million left immediately after the initial three months. So 500K times 15 times 6 equals 45 million for the last 6 months of subscription revenue. So if we total all three of these up, we get $225 million in revenue for the first 9 months of the games release, we haven't even reached a year yet! If the game keeps 500K subscribers for 12 months, that is 90 million a year in subscription revenue. How can SWTOR possibly be a failure based on this math?
The game has far from failed would be my conclusion from a profitability stand point cosidering a worst case estimate of $225 million in Revenue in the First 9 months.
No it was a failure from the start. Looking at the way they are doing the F2P model is also looking like a failure you are going to have no choice but to spend in it. Now it's just going to be any other EA game with DLC costing much more.
I find it very interesting that many people feel the game is a failure based on current profitability with an assumed 500K subscribers verse the guesses in the ballpark of $100-150 million development cost. Either way, without knowing hard numbers, just using the estimates posters toss around on this site which seem very low in my opinion, people say that 2 million customers bought the game originally, then about 3 months in 1.5 million subscribers left the game. Some quick math here considering we are in August now. 2 million times $60 bucks equals $120 million for initial release revenue. 2 million subscribers got there first month free and then paid for roughly 2 more months of service at 15 bucks per month, so 2 million times 30 bucks equals $60 million for first 3 months of subscrition revenue. Now, lets say 500K subscribers at $15 per month for 6 months assuming all 1.5 million left immediately after the initial three months. So 500K times 15 times 6 equals 45 million for the last 6 months of subscription revenue. So if we total all three of these up, we get $225 million in revenue for the first 9 months of the games release, we haven't even reached a year yet! If the game keeps 500K subscribers for 12 months, that is 90 million a year in subscription revenue. How can SWTOR possibly be a failure based on this math?
The game has far from failed would be my conclusion from a profitability stand point cosidering a worst case estimate of $225 million in Revenue in the First 9 months.
Your subscription numbers are considerably off.
Facts:
- 2 mil boxes at release
- Feb subscribers were at 1.3 mil
- Hint at P2W in article on June 15th
- 250k is the threshold for P2W conversions.
Dec. 20th release
Jan. 20th: 2 mil
Feb 20th: 1.3 mil
March 20th: 950k
April 20th: 660k
May 20th: ~250k ( March and April are averaged drops in population beween this point and Feb. )
May 20th: ~250k ( March and April are averaged drops in population beween this point and Feb. )
June 20th - Aug 20th: <250k
Best case scenario the game has made ~180 mil.
I didn't do any real research for these numbers, I just took a rough guess based on what I see many MMORPG users were posting in these forums about what they guessed the game was doing. Either way, your numbers are very close to my guess as well, espsecially considering that EA hasn't released anything concrete in several months. So lets assume your guess is more accurate than mine, I can see it. My opinion is that the numbers are significantly higher but thats my guess.
But thank you for seeing this the same way I do, with a guess at development cost of $100-150 million, the game is still in the 10's of millions of dollars above development cost, so how can we utilize this math to prove the game is failing when financially the game is profitable in less than one year of release?
I just find it odd that so many people point to this as some major sign that the game is some how in trouble or failing when even the most pessimistic numbers show it to be profitable.
I didn't do any real research for these numbers, I just took a rough guess based on what I see many MMORPG users were posting in these forums about what they guessed the game was doing. Either way, your numbers are very close to my guess as well, espsecially considering that EA hasn't released anything concrete in several months. So lets assume your guess is more accurate than mine, I can see it. My opinion is that the numbers are significantly higher but thats my guess.
But thank you for seeing this the same way I do, with a guess at development cost of $100-150 million, the game is still in the 10's of millions of dollars above development cost, so how can we utilize this math to prove the game is failing when financially the game is profitable in less than one year of release?
I just find it odd that so many people point to this as some major sign that the game is some how in trouble or failing when even the most pessimistic numbers show it to be profitable.
We don't know the actual development costs, but the consenus seems to be in the $150-$200 million range. Markting costs need to be accounted for and EA spends a huge amount on marketing every year ($747M in 2011 across the company). In 2009, EA said they typically spent 2-3x the development cost for a game on marketing. Given the exceptional costs of SWtOR that ratio probably doesn't apply here, but it's still likely a big number. I'd guess in the $50-$100 million range. Remember that this game was going to be EA's World of Warcraft.
There are ongoing costs associated with marketing, infrastructure, legal, development and support. There are probably some costs that are significantly higher than they should be given the game's current size such as hardware or software leases. Typcial operating costs are around %35. My understanding is Lucas Arts gets a 35% cut of all subscription revenue. So with the current guesses at subscription numbers the game could optimistically be making up to $1M to $2M per month in profit which is in line with EA statements that 500k was is profitable and could survive at 350-400k subscribers.
The game is failing because it was going to make $80M/year in profit for EA and looks like it's trending toward loosing money if F2P doesn't save it. With their budget, time and IP they needed to do better. They're not some unknown studio on a tight budget, they're one of the biggest game companies in the world and they are barely making a profit.
I wanted to download the trial client and give the train wreck a good once over in person, but apparently after $300mil in voice overs they forgot to keep enough cash on hand for general purpose webhosting. 150kb/s for a 27gig+ DL on a 26/6mbs line? HA HA NO
Originally posted by matraque Where does it says MMORPG's aren't suppose to tell you a story? They ALL tell you a story... it's the way of delivering it that is different.
Take the flashpoints as example. The first few times you experience them they are all great with the cutscenes and dialogues. But sooner than later you'll have players spacebar through that "experience" to speed up the run. The same for the operations. And the PvP zones are every time introduced with a cutscene.
Other MMOs have tried to tell players a story as well. Either the quest NPCs give some pieces of lore or there are non-quest -giver NPCs that do the same. But to be honest with the inflation of quest numbers in today's MMOs and with all those integrated quest helpers who is really following the story? I suppose that the average player just collects the quests in his/her quest hub and then is led by the automap. After finishing the quests returns to the questhub to get the rewards. And then it's on to the next quest hub. Bioware didn't even think it is necessary to include non-quest-giver NPCs for the atmosphere which provide clues and pieces of lore. It's a difference if you interact with the environment or if you just click on items which update your compendium.
As it turned out the VO cutscenes and dialogues are only interrupting the game flow.
The VO and the quest system of "modern" MMOs act as a straight jacket for game concepts. The VO due to its cost and production process doesn't allow to quickly fix or change cutscenes later on. The quest system has so much standardized gameplay that it gets repetitive and boring fast (I wonder if there is already an ISO standard for this game aspect). I'd rather prefer they'd tone back the number of quests so that the quests which are included are noteworthy and memorable.
Originally posted by bbbmmmlll SWtOR is a failure because of it’s mediocre design, poor execution, squandering of the best intellectual property in the world and it’s huge budget.
There’s nothing wrong with F2P, but this is a Hail Mary play. The game was not conceived as F2P, huge numbers of players have already played it and formed an impression plus I don’t see much being done to address the core issues. The only upside, and it’s huge, is that it’s Star Wars. But we’ve already seen in two cases, that this brand alone isn’t sufficient to save a game. EA/BW thinking that going to F2P will turn the game around strikes me as the same sort of ignorance that got the game into the situation it’s currently in.
Pretty much my opinion also. It failed long before FTP was announced or thought of.
No, it is a failure because they invested a truly insane amount of money into the project expecting much higher initial sales and millions of concurrent players 6 months and even a year in. It was a massive failure on a business and planning scale. The result of this is the scramble to F2P to try and recoup anything they can.
Ok , I've said this a few times , and will re write it again. Let's say for example your creating a MMO which costs money , and you notice that to get back your money and start making profit out of it , you'll need 8,000 to sub at 10$ a month for 3 years. Which is pretty reasonable. But Devs only care about the $$$ , they want to be billionaires within the first 2 months of release , so they put the game F2P with a cash shop and catter millions. By doing this , they just killed the soul of the MMO and it's community. If CCP only cared about $$$ , EVE-Online would of been free YEARS Ago , but they are making enough millions to upgrade their servers yearly and releasing free expansions , last time I checked, WoW's expansions weren't free.
So yeah , pretty much every Dev team sucks now a days , besides a FEW. SWTOR could of been something GREAT. But it's just another WoW / GW2 or whatever type of game with chewbaccas and light sabres.
I think you misunderstand the inner workings of a software company, the DEVs have little or no say in the pricing / marketing model (about as much as a cook at McDonalds has in the making of thier TV ads)
That would be the job of the business folks or (suits) as some call them.
I believe SWTOR should have been F2P from the start, however with EA/Bioware knowing they had a lemon on their hands they ripped off the customers with releasing the game as buy + subscription.
Sad but EA Louse was right.
Still waiting for one forum to defend the customers.
It was a failure from the start. Typical big company hired a bunch of people without a clue how to keep MMO players engaged in a game. Making a technically superior game with lots of voice overs does not get it. Too much hand holding quickly leads to boring gameplay.
I love Star Wars, but did not even attempt to purchase this game, beta testing showed what a loser it was. It was far inferior when it comes to gameplay than what was already on the market.
Any company working with Lucas Arts has a huge handicap, they don't even know what a MMO is. They think that it is just an extension of their single player games. That is why I don't have great hopes that a Star Wars universe MMO will ever be successful unless LA gets new leadership.
Personally I don't see the gams as a failure for going f2p. I see the people playing them failing to keep the games alive, always looking for the next big thing and exciting content built right in without making the effort to make the game better buy telling big company what they think would keep it alive. Most people play GW2 because right out of the box it's a good game with little effort on their part to make it better and it's b2p with no sub. It doesn't count as f2p (haha yeah right)
As Forbes pretty much said yes it is a failure because it needed the subscription model to work and thats what they planned and based the business on. Regardless free to play does not address the issues of the game and I do not believe it will help the business, besides it is too late their window for F2P has come and gone they cannot beat GW2 and with MOP round the corner I see that as a long hammer of a nail into the coffin.
The only reason this game is still open is because of legal contracts with Lucas Arts. It will be skeleton crewed till that time line has perished.
If a game launches and intends to be free to play then that is different.
YES, even I didn't think it would go f2p so fast and I was consistently negative. People who said it would go f2p within a year were called delusional by many posters here who are now telling everyone their latest game is revolutionary.
No, definitely not. I think that B2P and F2P without subscriptions is the way to go and that we will see a steady decline in games that actually are subscribed. I really liked Star Wars The Old Republic, and will come back when it is F2P. However, I am no pvp-er and I played it mostly as a single player rpg. But it was fun!
Originally posted by miramira2 No, definitely not. I think that B2P and F2P without subscriptions is the way to go and that we will see a steady decline in games that actually are subscribed. I really liked Star Wars The Old Republic, and will come back when it is F2P. However, I am no pvp-er and I played it mostly as a single player rpg. But it was fun!
Just wait till you see their Freemium plan .. lol, to do everything you used to do will cost you more than a monthly sub.
Failure is dependant on point of view; if the company set out to beat WoW, then going F2P is a failure in that respect. From a player's perspective, a game going F2P means it wasn't as popular as it should've been, meaning it's a failure in terms of "the market has spoken" - the game is not good enough.
On the other hand, for someone looking to have a good experience for as ittle money as possible, a MMO going F2P is a good thing.
Originally posted by miramira2 No, definitely not. I think that B2P and F2P without subscriptions is the way to go and that we will see a steady decline in games that actually are subscribed. I really liked Star Wars The Old Republic, and will come back when it is F2P. However, I am no pvp-er and I played it mostly as a single player rpg. But it was fun!
Just wait till you see their Freemium plan .. lol, to do everything you used to do will cost you more than a monthly sub.
Everything I used to do was the quest lines, and that was awesome in ToR. It will cost nothing in f2p, at the current state
Comments
There’s nothing wrong with F2P, but this is a Hail Mary play. The game was not conceived as F2P, huge numbers of players have already played it and formed an impression plus I don’t see much being done to address the core issues. The only upside, and it’s huge, is that it’s Star Wars. But we’ve already seen in two cases, that this brand alone isn’t sufficient to save a game. EA/BW thinking that going to F2P will turn the game around strikes me as the same sort of ignorance that got the game into the situation it’s currently in.
I find it very interesting that many people feel the game is a failure based on current profitability with an assumed 500K subscribers verse the guesses in the ballpark of $100-150 million development cost. Either way, without knowing hard numbers, just using the estimates posters toss around on this site which seem very low in my opinion, people say that 2 million customers bought the game originally, then about 3 months in 1.5 million subscribers left the game. Some quick math here considering we are in August now. 2 million times $60 bucks equals $120 million for initial release revenue. 2 million subscribers got there first month free and then paid for roughly 2 more months of service at 15 bucks per month, so 2 million times 30 bucks equals $60 million for first 3 months of subscrition revenue. Now, lets say 500K subscribers at $15 per month for 6 months assuming all 1.5 million left immediately after the initial three months. So 500K times 15 times 6 equals 45 million for the last 6 months of subscription revenue. So if we total all three of these up, we get $225 million in revenue for the first 9 months of the games release, we haven't even reached a year yet! If the game keeps 500K subscribers for 12 months, that is 90 million a year in subscription revenue. How can SWTOR possibly be a failure based on this math?
The game has far from failed would be my conclusion from a profitability stand point cosidering a worst case estimate of $225 million in Revenue in the First 9 months.
Your subscription numbers are considerably off.
Facts:
- 2 mil boxes at release
- Feb subscribers were at 1.3 mil
- Hint at P2W in article on June 15th
- 250k is the threshold for P2W conversions.
Dec. 20th release
Jan. 20th: 2 mil
Feb 20th: 1.3 mil
March 20th: 950k
April 20th: 660k
May 20th: ~250k ( March and April are averaged drops in population beween this point and Feb. )
June 20th - Aug 20th: <250k
Best case scenario the game has made ~180 mil.
I didn't do any real research for these numbers, I just took a rough guess based on what I see many MMORPG users were posting in these forums about what they guessed the game was doing. Either way, your numbers are very close to my guess as well, espsecially considering that EA hasn't released anything concrete in several months. So lets assume your guess is more accurate than mine, I can see it. My opinion is that the numbers are significantly higher but thats my guess.
But thank you for seeing this the same way I do, with a guess at development cost of $100-150 million, the game is still in the 10's of millions of dollars above development cost, so how can we utilize this math to prove the game is failing when financially the game is profitable in less than one year of release?
I just find it odd that so many people point to this as some major sign that the game is some how in trouble or failing when even the most pessimistic numbers show it to be profitable.
We don't know the actual development costs, but the consenus seems to be in the $150-$200 million range. Markting costs need to be accounted for and EA spends a huge amount on marketing every year ($747M in 2011 across the company). In 2009, EA said they typically spent 2-3x the development cost for a game on marketing. Given the exceptional costs of SWtOR that ratio probably doesn't apply here, but it's still likely a big number. I'd guess in the $50-$100 million range. Remember that this game was going to be EA's World of Warcraft.
There are ongoing costs associated with marketing, infrastructure, legal, development and support. There are probably some costs that are significantly higher than they should be given the game's current size such as hardware or software leases. Typcial operating costs are around %35. My understanding is Lucas Arts gets a 35% cut of all subscription revenue. So with the current guesses at subscription numbers the game could optimistically be making up to $1M to $2M per month in profit which is in line with EA statements that 500k was is profitable and could survive at 350-400k subscribers.
The game is failing because it was going to make $80M/year in profit for EA and looks like it's trending toward loosing money if F2P doesn't save it. With their budget, time and IP they needed to do better. They're not some unknown studio on a tight budget, they're one of the biggest game companies in the world and they are barely making a profit.
I wanted to download the trial client and give the train wreck a good once over in person, but apparently after $300mil in voice overs they forgot to keep enough cash on hand for general purpose webhosting. 150kb/s for a 27gig+ DL on a 26/6mbs line? HA HA NO
blah
Take the flashpoints as example. The first few times you experience them they are all great with the cutscenes and dialogues. But sooner than later you'll have players spacebar through that "experience" to speed up the run. The same for the operations. And the PvP zones are every time introduced with a cutscene.
Other MMOs have tried to tell players a story as well. Either the quest NPCs give some pieces of lore or there are non-quest -giver NPCs that do the same. But to be honest with the inflation of quest numbers in today's MMOs and with all those integrated quest helpers who is really following the story? I suppose that the average player just collects the quests in his/her quest hub and then is led by the automap. After finishing the quests returns to the questhub to get the rewards. And then it's on to the next quest hub. Bioware didn't even think it is necessary to include non-quest-giver NPCs for the atmosphere which provide clues and pieces of lore. It's a difference if you interact with the environment or if you just click on items which update your compendium.
As it turned out the VO cutscenes and dialogues are only interrupting the game flow.
The VO and the quest system of "modern" MMOs act as a straight jacket for game concepts. The VO due to its cost and production process doesn't allow to quickly fix or change cutscenes later on. The quest system has so much standardized gameplay that it gets repetitive and boring fast (I wonder if there is already an ISO standard for this game aspect). I'd rather prefer they'd tone back the number of quests so that the quests which are included are noteworthy and memorable.
Pretty much my opinion also. It failed long before FTP was announced or thought of.
I'm sure it has been said in here but...
No, it is a failure because they invested a truly insane amount of money into the project expecting much higher initial sales and millions of concurrent players 6 months and even a year in. It was a massive failure on a business and planning scale. The result of this is the scramble to F2P to try and recoup anything they can.
I think you misunderstand the inner workings of a software company, the DEVs have little or no say in the pricing / marketing model (about as much as a cook at McDonalds has in the making of thier TV ads)
That would be the job of the business folks or (suits) as some call them.
I believe SWTOR should have been F2P from the start, however with EA/Bioware knowing they had a lemon on their hands they ripped off the customers with releasing the game as buy + subscription.
Sad but EA Louse was right.
Still waiting for one forum to defend the customers.
Personally I don't see the gams as a failure for going f2p. I see the people playing them failing to keep the games alive, always looking for the next big thing and exciting content built right in without making the effort to make the game better buy telling big company what they think would keep it alive. Most people play GW2 because right out of the box it's a good game with little effort on their part to make it better and it's b2p with no sub. It doesn't count as f2p (haha yeah right)
Langsdorff
As Forbes pretty much said yes it is a failure because it needed the subscription model to work and thats what they planned and based the business on. Regardless free to play does not address the issues of the game and I do not believe it will help the business, besides it is too late their window for F2P has come and gone they cannot beat GW2 and with MOP round the corner I see that as a long hammer of a nail into the coffin.
The only reason this game is still open is because of legal contracts with Lucas Arts. It will be skeleton crewed till that time line has perished.
If a game launches and intends to be free to play then that is different.
Just wait till you see their Freemium plan .. lol, to do everything you used to do will cost you more than a monthly sub.
Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.
Failure is dependant on point of view; if the company set out to beat WoW, then going F2P is a failure in that respect. From a player's perspective, a game going F2P means it wasn't as popular as it should've been, meaning it's a failure in terms of "the market has spoken" - the game is not good enough.
On the other hand, for someone looking to have a good experience for as ittle money as possible, a MMO going F2P is a good thing.
Everything I used to do was the quest lines, and that was awesome in ToR. It will cost nothing in f2p, at the current state