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920,000 Beta Registrations
ZizouX
Member Posts: 670
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
ZizouX
Member Posts: 670
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VERY valid point....about multiple email applications... even still.... 920k.... pretty awesome.. even if you take out 100k or more for multiple appications.
I thought it was like 500k or something... but it's almost double that.
Great, now how about them actual invites?
I'm not gonna buy the game unless I get a taste of it first.
The absolute number isn't really useful as information, precisely because of cases like yours. Even if it was only one application per person, you still couldn't make any predictions towards the real playerbase. What is interesting though is how the game is doing compared to other games' beta application numbers.
Secret World for example had about 1.2 mil, SWTOR had 1.5. Regarding the history of XIV, 1 mil before reaching open beta is quite a strong presence.
What happens if you don't enjoy it and quit after 30 mins? A wasted key that could have gone to someone who could have provided valuble feedback.
FFXIV Version 1.0 had 640,000 games sold worldwide.
So this number seems about right. I'd expect about this many signups and then 300-400k buys worldwide for launch.
Remember 920k is just people that signed up, not how many are in beta. Then those in beta, there are a lot that don't like the game. Then even all those that like the game, many don't have money to buy it or don't think its worth the money. Then those that even buy it, many will refuse to pay monthly after the free month.
So, in the end after the free month it should be at about 250k-350k players worldwide.
When PS4 version comes out, I expect a lot of new players for this game over time. It should look great on there similar to the PC version and Final Fantasy is always a system seller and big hit on Sony consoles. Now that this console can keep up with decent PCs, people won't fear playing an MMORPG on it in NA/EU either. Japan always used consoles for them, but few elsewhere did.
GAME TIL YOU DIE!!!!
I think you're going to see this number go even higher for open beta.
One thing I have noticed, and all of you can disagree, is that FFXIV has someting really cool going for it... "word of mouth."
I think people who are trying out FFXIV beta are telling their friends to try it out as well. I think people who hve never played an mmo but are FFXIV fans are also LOVING the PSE and the console UI.
I cannot stress enough how FUN this game is to play on a gamepad. You're missing out if you dont' give it a solid chance. It will take you an hour to get used to the controls... but you'll love it.... trust me.
Almost everyone I know signs up for every beta. Considering they've been the try before you buy system it's not a big surprise.
Not saying the game wont be popular at launch just beta sign up for an AAA mmo doesn't mean much.
Then there are those, that don't play the beta, but buy the game at launch.............
I mean, you are obviously right in that not everyone that signs up will buy the game, but you are also overlooking the obvious fact that not everyone who buys the game during the first month has signed up for the beta.
In a nutshell: nobody knows, so let's stop trying to make it seem like we do.
+1
I'm not understanding why people are excited about beta sign ups. I try to sign up for most upcoming titles just to see what they're like.
Nobody is saying they know the exact numbers, its my estimate. Just saying the 920k is only signups, everyone signs up for beta or every major game and this one is a worldwide release, so it should be a high number as it also includes multiple signups form some people.
This game is much better now, but still carries a bad name from version 1.0 to some.
Word of mouth and some forums good posts have brought life into the game again, so I'm glad there are a lot of peolpe trying it out, but I also know how MMO p[layers are nowadays, over 50% of the players in every MMO that has a subscription quit after the 1st month.
Yoshi even said this in one of his latest letters. He says how people that are MMO vets usually get bored of a game in early levels since they been there/done that so man times. He also states how many miss their old game and always go back to it after trying new ones. And then how they others excited the first 2 weeks, then by the end of the free month they quit. So you have to count on all of that happening as it does in every single MMORPG.
So again my estimate is 250-400k people playing after 1 month beyond release. Then once PS4 version is out I could see it increase by 100k with many joining on PS4, while many leave PS3 version behind and old PCs moving to PS4 as well.
GAME TIL YOU DIE!!!!
If they can sell 2 million box copies, I'd say they salvaged her.
I never bought in to the whole FF14 1.00 sucked and that's why it failed, thing because most people never even bought the game or played it to say one way or the other if it was bad. Hype only goes so far. For whatever reason this game didn't get attention when it launched. I can't remember what was coming out at the same time as the original launch, why it just seemed to fade away. Most people completely ignored it and just chimed in with whatever the critics were saying and used that as an excuse to keep ignoring it.
Yes, I know all this. Once again, more things to take into account for a more accurate prediction:
1. PS3 version for a mainline entry of a franchise with console roots. No other MMO (XI aside, the game that had half its playerbase play on a PS2) has ever had this kind of advantage.
2. Japanese breath this game. They do not care about any other Asian or Western MMO, ever. They are exclusive to ARR.
3. There are roughly 20 million Final Fantasy fans around the globe, with only a portion of them being MMO players at the moment. Simply ruling them out in the total numbers is foolish. This game can compete with the single players entries.
4. Dragon Quest X has 400k subscriptions in Japan alone. This game is more popular and has better production values (DQX is for Wii out of all things, the console of Wii Fit - not MMO's).
5. If only MMO vets would buy and play MMO's, WoW would have topped at <1 million subs.
I can go on... but in a nutshell for the reasons stated above I think your predictions are pretty much meaningless.
It was a bad game. A bad game.
Don't tell me you didn't play it yourself?
Beta Test 4 is going to be open beta, so you can test it then.
Yes, I did play it. I'm Legacy and I never thought it was 'bad'. I think they were looking for someone to throw under the bus. 1.00 needed some scaling, it needed polish but it was by no means bad. It wasn't a cookie cutter MMO and while I struggled in certain aspects, I never wanted them to make it a cookie cutter MMO.
The numbers are actually pretty good. With how bad 1.0 was it actually is a pretty good sign for XIV. I mean, lets be honest XIV 1.0 was just awful and no one can say otherwise. The game even tanked in Japan, and that should be the one place an FF game has a chance lol.
With so many changes they've managed to peak the interest and that is a hard thing to do after a failed launch. I have even been resold on the game and plan on getting it for PC and PS4 (Once it launches) and I like most thought 1.0 was just awful.
So all I can say really is good job SE, you've managed to do what few MMO's have. Managing to get people interested in a game after such an awful launch is note worthy in itself.
Any graphical, audio, or gameplay restrictions not seen in other mmos but found in FFXIV can be blamed on one thing.
PS3