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Approaching the 3 month mark
cnutemp
Member UncommonPosts: 230
So FFXIV has almost been out for 3 months now (11/27)
I hear a lot of people saying this game cant be counted as a success unless it keeps a steady population for (1,3,6) months after go-live (this number seems to keep going up).
Is there a consensus as to how long this game needs to keep the bulk of its population after go-live in order to not be considered a failure?
I heard SWTOR started out at like 200+ servers and is now down to somewhere around 10. How fast did that contraction go?
Comments
for many months EA was keeping a chin up
SWTOR launched in late december
2 months later - EA claiming game is success
http://www.vg247.com/2012/02/01/ea-q3-swtor-moves-2-million-units/
5 months later - EA claimed game was still stable
http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/07/eas-star-wars-the-old-republic-snares-1-3m-subscribers/
10 months later - server merges
http://www.swtor.com/blog/server-consolidation
EQ2 fan sites
By almost any reasonable measure this title can already be considered a success.
One of the last hurdles is to see if they can break the almost universal trend of modern AAA MMO's to start out very strong and then undergo a massive (and rapid) contraction.
All games eventually go down in subs, just a matter of how long it takes.
Fact is, as long as regular content additions continue to happen, the game will always be a success to those who still play it.
Doesn't really matter how many that is, 100K, 500K, 5M, though the people who bankrolled the title probably sure care.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Nope, because as soon as we hit 3 months, all of the haters (many of whom were predicting ghost town servers on day 31 after the 30 day trial) will be saying "wait until 6 months", and after 6 months "wait until a year". Hell, there are still WOW haters out there claiming that Blizzard's declining numbers prove they were right about WOW sucking all along.
Not that the fans who are already proclaiming the game a smashing success aren't jumping the gun a bit as well.
I'm more towards the middle. All of the news so far seems pretty encouraging, but we shall see. Frankly, as long as SE continues to support the game and provide new content, I don't care whether the game has 1 million subs, or 200k.
I had a friend during release tell me how great WoW and SWTOR were compared to FFXIV:ARR and how much all the bugs made the game suck. No game could come back from such a debacle in registration and server stability since it was already a revamp of a failed game.
Two days ago he sent me a message on facebook asking if I am still playing and the game is great.
I still enjoy the game and had subscribed for the 180 days, there will be some new in and some old out but I think the game will be fine for a while. A good while hopefully!
I personally think 6 months is the healthiest indicator to go off of, however, what's more important is the trending.
If a game starts off with a million subs, and keeps a million subs for 6 months, then that's a successful game.
On the contrary, if a game starts off with a million subs, drops to 700k, then 650k, than 530k, than 430k, etc over a period of months, than it's a failure.
Then, on top of that, you have to consider the company's goal. I sincerely doubt SE wants a small number (200kish) given that the game came out twice, and essentially had a 7 year development cycle. I'd suspect they're leaning more towards a 400k subscription goal, which is perfectly manageable.
For me personally though, I don't consider the game a success. On the contrary, it's paved the way for free-to-play. "Why?" you might ask?
1) It lowered the bar for account security and anti-RMT measures in pay to play games. Essentially, SE has sent the message that you should pay a subscription fee while bots run rampant (as noticed via the bot spam in towns, or the warping mining/harvesting bots that have all but destroyed the shard market). On top of that, numerous hacks and account compromises have plagued the game since release.
2) It demonstrates that pay-to-play games simply can't produce content at a rate faster than players can complete it. For 2 months of subbing and a box fee (a total of anywhere from $55ish- $100ish, depending on your version), there will have been a few patches and bug fixes, and then the release of the crystal tower (which was supposed to be in the game to start) and player housing. (Note: While I don't believe pay-to-play is bad, the ease and casual nature of FFXIV serves as a bullseye for those arguing why P2P is a bad deal)
3) It showed that P2P games essentially don't offer anything innovative or unique compared to games that are already out there (ala Rift, GW2) that are already F2P.
4) Lastly, it shows that the days of P2P = a community, F2P = ragers/zergers/immature players are long gone.
Waiting for something fresh to arrive on the MMO scene...
Still having server queues. Still selling out both retainers overnight. Still see tons of people crafting, gathering, fate grinding, spamming for coil.
feel better?anyway. In game is a different story. My server is packed with people doing all aspects of the game. overall climate in chat is good. I'm surrounded by lots of happy gamers.
I was reading and couldn`t hold myself from posting. On Gilgamesh server, it's the same thing. A lot of players happy about the game. The climate in chat is far better than TORtanic ever was.
2.1 is coming next month. I'm confident.
as some people said, the game is already a success. they sold much more copies than they expected and there are also more subs than they expected. if they realy continue to release new content every 3-4 months then the subs will stay solid.
[mod edit]The game is very good, but not for all and no for me anymore. I bought time-card week ago and never logged again, because there is nothing what can to sink me again. I figured out that crafting is strongly linked with end-game content, I mean endless instance farming which are interesting by.... 5 runs? I've played SWTOR - didn't end any story - BORING, the same with operations (did some small, but never done big). I've quited WoW for the same reason. Now, i quitted FF: ARR (despite my account is still active for 2 months) - all three games share the same concepts, ideas, schematics - especially ONE BIG schema - learn tactic, remember it and replay, replay, replay, replay... x 300 times per month. What to do in next month? Replay, replay, replay... tick-tock, tick-tock, if you missed, you'll fail and everyone calls you 'idiot', 'dumb', 'brat' etc. - that isn't my experience, but the shema is the same in all games. I saw it many, many times and never wanted to deal with it. I've my own problems and never admit that the game will be another.
My punchline is: will appear in the future any MMO which gives players a freedom of choice and offers the world that enforce players to use their intellect to solve any events / story / problem with unique mechanic / system / tools? Sadly, I doubt of it.
Try Secret World. It has at least some of those qualities.
Anyways, I played the free month when the game came out. Yesterday I subbed again. I really like this game, even though it doesn't offer anything completely new. So far I'm only 42 WHM but I can't wait to get to test the true endgame content.
The game has to be considered a success. The only real drop-off in population has been in the hardcore raiding scene. The game is in a very good place for the more casual players.
It still has the problem all themepark games have which is the lack of ability to keep producing content.
For a lot of people right now, all the $12-15 dollar sub is buying is the ability to run coil and cap 300 myth 4 times a month and wait for 2.2 in 6 months or whatever since 2.1 will not be introducing a new raiding tier.
It does introduce a new raiding tier.
In this game it pretty much means working towards gearing jobs other than your main, if you're not a casual that is.
Pretty much. Do your weekly (300 Myth) and do your daily (Coil)... once a week. I'm gearing up my alts with any leftover Allagan pieces, and I'll be able to start using Myths for that second class as well. No one in my 8 linkshells or FC consider 2.1 to be endgame or tier of anything. For a few it is nothing more than to collect more stuff.