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Smedly predicts ESO will be successfu and have ALOT of players.

24

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  • reeereeereeereee Member UncommonPosts: 1,636
    Originally posted by greenreen
    There is specific PVP gear, I've seen screens of it.

    Never mind then, I think I was mislead because the VR seems to span both PvE and PvP content

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Member CommonPosts: 1,103
    Originally posted by MikeB

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game. The same will be true for ESO and for WildStar. The way these games work out is to have other compelling reasons to continue playing aside from just consuming content. For ESO, this likely rests on Cyrodiil. For WS, possibly super tough endgame content and maybe PvP offerings in Warplots and such. Keep in mind that even these are potentially big 'ifs', especially with a subscription tacked on.

     

    I'll be playing ESO come launch, but I have no delusions about what 30 days later will look like for people who are primarily interested in consuming content. For anyone not captivated by Cyrodiil, I'm expecting a whole lot of, "Finished 50++! What do I do now?!" posts unless Adventure Zones end up being compelling enough to pad that out a bit.

    If you look at what Nick the dev says in his interview on the ESO Alliance after being asked how much content there is at 50.  He explains tons of things for end game play that sound like atleast a good three months worth of content.  

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80mHQNA45js    1:29:45    Nicks comments on end game progression content.

     

    He talks about end game for PVP, Overland, Vetern zones, and Vetern dungeons.   Says "insane number of hours".    

     

    We have to find out just how much content they have in these adventure zones and raiding.     When he talked about raiding he talked about how he was a WoW hardcore gamer, and he says without spoilers that it he enjoyed it at those kind of levels, so I know raiding must be longer then just FFXIV's  camping T5 all week.  

     

    We'll have to see just how much "insane amount of hours"  truly mean.  To me it sounds al teast 3 months worth but I'll let you make your own conclusion on that.

     

    I also agree that no modern developer can keep up with content.   I just know ESO will probably be the one who will have the most updates we've seen from any other company out there.   SOE is right to go Sandbox because it never updates any of their past games.   It has one of the largest graveyards for games I have ever seen, but I think there is still companies like Smed said, that can pull this off, and Zennimax/Bethesda softworks I think is probably the only one in modern gaming that can.

  • bcbullybcbully Member EpicPosts: 11,843
    Originally posted by greenreen
    There is specific PVP gear, I've seen screens of it.

    Gear as in style not stat.

  • BelgaraathBelgaraath Member UncommonPosts: 3,204
    Originally posted by MikeB

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game. The same will be true for ESO and for WildStar. The way these games work out is to have other compelling reasons to continue playing aside from just consuming content. For ESO, this likely rests on Cyrodiil. For WS, possibly super tough endgame content and maybe PvP offerings in Warplots and such. Keep in mind that even these are potentially big 'ifs', especially with a subscription tacked on.

    SOE's refocusing to sandbox games has to do with the fact that systems keep players engaged for far longer than new content does.  If you continue to see themeparks, they're more likely to be 'sandparks' like ArcheAge or EQ Next. Games with a focus on systems, but with some level of developer created content layered on top.

    SWTOR's inability to keep up with content consumption wasn't for a lack of resources. They had an insanely huge team (both pre and post launch) and a huge budget. They simply underestimated how long it would take for people to churn through the content they made. I think they pegged it at three months when it was more like a month or a month and a half.

    I'll be playing ESO come launch, but I have no delusions about what 30 days later will look like for people who are primarily interested in consuming content. For anyone not captivated by Cyrodiil, I'm expecting a whole lot of, "Finished 50++! What do I do now?!" posts unless Adventure Zones end up being compelling enough to pad that out a bit.

    One person in a Q & A with Tamriel Foundry i believe said it took him 70 hrs hitting the space bar. Another said 6 days skimming through everything, though who knows how many Hours each day it was. I think we will see people hit 50 in under a week for sure. Does that mean that the average player will be at 50 within 1 month, I hope not. Am I the one one with a job and activities outside of my computer? Lol. If they do keep to their release schedule, they will retain a lot more than TOR did. Of course a sandbox can house content longer, but it normally also houses a smaller base of customers compared to the top themeparks. IMO if  the game sheds the space bar pushers who aren't into PVP either, that's probably better for the community.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • spizzspizz Member UncommonPosts: 1,971
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

     

    http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/952/feature/8220/Smedley-the-Sandbox-and-Online-Society.html

     

    http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

     

    To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

     

     

    This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

     

    "Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

     

    Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

     

    "TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

     

     

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

     

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

     

    I cant follow exactly how players are done with the content "immidately after release".

    Only people who have no life can do that.

    He says aswell the following:

    "SWTOR - a very well don game" - however people went throug the conten so quickly they became bored.

     

    Excuse me, this might be partially right but overall it is nonsens.

    The reasons why SWTOR did fail had several issues not just the mentioned one.

    * gameworld was steril and lifeless

    * Questing + Gameworld on Rails without much freedom

    * a world without anything to explore only datacoms (?) actually similar to the crystals in ESO

    * PvP area did not work at all and later it was closed. And in the short time the pvp area did work it showed how aweful it was. People were just standing around and killing each other for points.....it was a focking joke.

    * instead of StarWars people got Huttenball pvp with tiny maps

    * a failed mini space game without multiplayer

    * just one social Hub with all players on this station.

     

    The whole game was rather a scandal for bioware instead saying they can be proud of it.

    Sorry, but it is like putting a lipstick on a pig.

     

     

    What ESO needs is for sure pve endgame content and Iam missing informations about this, therefore Iam a bit sceptical about this part of the game. The pvp seems promsing on the other hand, but I would suggest adding some battlegrounds with later expansions packs.

  • reeereeereeereee Member UncommonPosts: 1,636
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

     

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    I think I'm having a flashback to 2012.

  • DKLondDKLond Member RarePosts: 2,273

    A true player-driven content model is a dream come true.

    However, I'd like to see how they balance it all and implement that freedom before I start clapping my hands.

    A sandbox design is the kind of thing that's easy to promise but much, much harder to deliver in a way that actually works.

    Also, without significant content by the developers, you're just providing players with an empty shell - and that doesn't work either.

    So, not only do they have to provide intelligent design, balance and implementation of player created content - they ALSO have to provide content on the same level as a major themepark game.

    So far, we've seen an editor and a lot of talk.

  • tom_goretom_gore Member UncommonPosts: 2,001

    Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

    Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

    I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

     

  • DKLondDKLond Member RarePosts: 2,273
    Originally posted by tom_gore

    Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

    Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

    I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

     

    Having tested ESO, I disagree.

    ESO is in MUCH MUCH better shape, content-wise, than SWtOR was at launch.

    Beyond that, it has a working PvP segment - which was a big part of the SWtoR PR campaign - and which utterly and completely failed to function as advertised.

    Smedley is promoting the direction they've chosen to take - which is hardly a shock.

    Do we expect him to say ESO took the right direction when Smedley did something else? Not likely.

  • BelgaraathBelgaraath Member UncommonPosts: 3,204
    Originally posted by tom_gore

    Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

    Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

    I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

     

    I don't take this opinion very seriously because you are extremely sandbox biased....I mean you basically have admitted it yourself in your forum history. Regardless, you may be right, you may be wrong. I guess we shall see. I know for me I'll be still waiting around in the aftermath of the big tom_gore gaming crash prediction lol. Anyway, at least we agree on Occulus Rift :-).

    There Is Always Hope!

  • SpriggenSpriggen Member Posts: 21
    Oh... So not only Smed can tell the ffuture but he likes to hold everyone by the balls with announcements like " oh everyone that ever played swg... This game is for you."
  • khelluskhellus Member Posts: 25
    Originally posted by Tierless

    I think it will, for 3 months. By 6 it will be decreased a lot. 1 year, FTP. Its not bad, just not going to line up with Elder Scrolls level of expectations. People forget hoe incredible the single player games are. Hard for any MMO to match them.

    you mean when modders are given the tools to do their thing. make unofficial bug fixes graphics overhauls and a mariad of other things?

  • CoatedCoated Member UncommonPosts: 507

    I have to agree with what someone said earlier, which is disagreeing with Smed. One of the huge issues with SWTOR was their engine, not the amount of content that was available. For anyone that was actually there for SWTOR's birth, you know what I'm talking about. SWTOR forums were bombarded with posts about skill delay, action delay, GCD delays, the whole game was having problems because of these issues. The other problem was that the game was shallow, lacked imagination and creation. It was a terrible experience all around. Most of the people who quit didn't even make it to end game, let alone experience half of what SWTOR content had to offer.

    I also don't get the comparison of SWTOR and ESO. They are not similar in any way shape or form, other than the inevitable transition of P2P to F2P. That isn't a comparison though, as almost every mmorpg that started P2P eventually goes F2P. Even WOW will eventually go F2P at some point.

    The only reason why ESO may not do well in my eyes is that it is incredibly niche. As you have seen on these forums, you either hate the game or love it. ESO doesn't seem to make anyone think, "oh, maybe I'll give it a shot". The 'maybe' is gone with ESO, which is unlike SWTOR. TOR had almost everying thinking, maybe.

  • CazNeergCazNeerg Member Posts: 2,198

    The problem with a lot of the "logic" in this thread is that the only way TOR can be called a failure is if you define failure in the MMO market as "any game that includes a free option."  They are making buckets of money with that game, and if Zenimax follows exactly the same pattern with ESO in terms of player numbers and the eventual model changes, it will be considered by anyone who understands the *business* of making computer games as a major success.

    In other words, Smedley is probably correct that ESO will be like TOR, but that isn't a way of saying it will be a failure, it is a way of saying it will probably be as successful as contemporary MMOs ever get.

    Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
    Through passion, I gain strength.
    Through strength, I gain power.
    Through power, I gain victory.
    Through victory, my chains are broken.
    The Force shall free me.

  • Eighteen16Eighteen16 Member UncommonPosts: 146
    Reviewers who think that themepark MMOs are the past are just dreaming. Does sandbox provide much more potential content? Yes. Will any AAA developer spend resources making a sandbox MMO? No, not unless it is a complete abomination like EQN. Wow is doing just fine by releasing one content patch per 6 months, it is about quality not quantity. 
  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 24,273
    Well that's doomed the game for sure. :)
  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

     

    http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/952/feature/8220/Smedley-the-Sandbox-and-Online-Society.html

     

    http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

     

    To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

     

     

    This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

     

    "Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

     

    Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

     

    "TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

     

     

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

     

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    Its amazing how people still take words of devs as facts and cling to it with so much absolute confidence. Which company hasn't made similar claims before MMO launch? talk is cheap though. I will believe when i see it. Every MMO company makes similar claims.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

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  • DrannorDrannor Member UncommonPosts: 26

    Gotta agree with Coated and CazNeerg. I was there at launch. I've been a subscriber for 3 months. The problem was - you could get to max everything in less than 2 months. After that period I had best gear I could get and there was literally nothing to do. Ilum (pvp) was a complete joke. Reps and Imps made queues to kill each other to get pvp points, because it was more efficient.

    Also, there was no need to explore. You could just send your companions to get mats for you while staying on the Fleet. Same with crafting.

    But they've improved a lot since then and SWTOR is doing quite well in my opinion. There are lots of people playing it. In fact, I've resubscribed twice during last year. And don't be fooled. This game is not free to play. What you get for free is just a mere trial with huge limitations.

    In my opinion ESO and SWTOR similarities end on positive things - there is a great story, music, everything is voiced over and you can get that epic feel while playing:)

    Game engine, PvP, crafting, exploration are far better in ESO.

    Will this game switch to f2p model? Quite possible, but it won't happen anytime soon.

  • MukeMuke Member RarePosts: 2,614
    Originally posted by AlBQuirky

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    He would be better off saying nothing then instead of battering "opponents".

    ESPECIALLY Smedley, who is known worldwide of burying his own MMOs and making promises he never keeps.

    We'll see how these 2 MMOs will score on the Smedley Scale. If EQN is really that good, it will be a good game, if it is a fail, then all the promises in the world can't keep Smed's new toy afloat.

     

    "going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  • SgtPepperUKSgtPepperUK Member UncommonPosts: 30
    Originally posted by MikeB

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game.

    This only holds true for a minority of players, though what does tend to bring focus on it is that these players tend to be more vocal. They'll chew through a game's content and then let everyone know about it.

     

    But no modern themepark MMO is designed to be played 50+ hours per week. Once they might have used mechanics that were deliberate time sinks to achieve that effect but , Post-WoW, that changed and accessability became key. Most people preferred to be able to play 2-3 hours per night and get stuff done.

     

    Personally, I'm fine with this. When I played FFXI I would generally have to play all evening to get something done, now I can play FFXIV and get something out of a 2 or 3 hour session. Which is great because I can then go and watch TV or play something else (thanks to Steam sales I certainly have a lengthy list of games to play).

     

    Playing an MMO these days does not have to be an exclusive activity that needs and consumes all the spare hours you can throw at it, like it used to.

     

    There is, however, a vocal minority who feel that's how it should be and they're the ones most likely to be disappointed by modern themepark MMOs.

    Think about it, nobody wants to die, there's rules to this game son, I'm justified.

  • VoiidiinVoiidiin Member Posts: 817
    Originally posted by AlBQuirky

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    Umm smedly is not an ESO dev.... just an fyi.

    Lolipops !

  • tom_goretom_gore Member UncommonPosts: 2,001
    Originally posted by keithian
    Originally posted by tom_gore

    Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

    Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

    I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

     

    I don't take this opinion very seriously because you are extremely sandbox biased....I mean you basically have admitted it yourself in your forum history. Regardless, you may be right, you may be wrong. I guess we shall see. I know for me I'll be still waiting around in the aftermath of the big tom_gore gaming crash prediction lol. Anyway, at least we agree on Occulus Rift :-).

     

    I admit being biased towards sandbox MMO gaming. After all, that's where it all started from. The devolution of the genre has been since disheartening to watch, as MMOs try to become more and more like casual singleplayer games, with a social side slapped haphazardly on.

    However, it is an undeniable fact that if you give a man a fish, he will live for a day. If you teach him how to fish, he will live for years. This is the point Smedley is trying to make. No matter how much content the devs will push, the players will churn through it faster than they can produce it. But by giving them tools and systems which they can use to create their own content, the devs indeed have a chance of "staying one step ahead" of the players.

    Obviously sandbox gaming is not the ultimate solution for everyone. After all, a lot of people like to consume pre-canned media (TV) instead of interactive media (games), and likewise within gamers there are those who will rather consume content created by someone else than create their own content.

    For me, sandbox gaming represents what MMOs should be about - getting together to create your own adventures. A bit like classic pen and paper roleplaying, but obviously with more visuals, and of course and unfortunately more limits.

    Again, you're free to disagree what you prefer - themepark style content or sandbox style content, but the fact remains that sandbox content is much more feasible in the long run to keep an MMO running with manageable cost.

     

  • maple2maple2 Member UncommonPosts: 161
    it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..
  • XarkoXarko Member EpicPosts: 1,180
    Originally posted by maple2
    it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..

    You have a lot to learn in the ways of trolling, my friend.

  • ruonimruonim Member Posts: 251

    Ruonim predicts:

    - game will be failure

    - lots of players will quit after "free" month

    - people wont stand kill x of y quests

    - people wont stand 30 minute travel times

    - pvpers wont stand gear based pvp

    - elder scrolls fans won't like grind based game

     

    Now discuss!! About ruonim predictions.

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