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5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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  • ghorgosghorgos Member UncommonPosts: 191

    5M users registered for beta sounds like a decent number but there are a lot players that used more than 100 email-accounts.

    10M players by the end of the year is ridiculus. I could think of 5M sold copies by the end of the year but not 5M active subscribers.

  • YaevinduskYaevindusk Member RarePosts: 2,094
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by Knotwood
     

     

    This entire thread has made my day.

     

    I guess you could say that he's... Knotting on wood!

     

    /endbadpuns

    Due to frequent travel in my youth, English isn't something I consider my primary language (and thus I obtained quirky ways of writing).  German and French were always easier for me despite my family being U.S. citizens for over a century.  Spanish I learned as a requirement in school, Japanese and Korean I acquired for my youthful desire of anime and gaming (and also work now).  I only debate in English to help me work with it (and limit things).  In addition, I'm not smart enough to remain fluent in everything and typically need exposure to get in the groove of things again if I haven't heard it in a while.  If you understand Mandarin, I know a little, but it has actually been a challenge and could use some help.

    Also, I thoroughly enjoy debates and have accounts on over a dozen sites for this.  If you wish to engage in such, please put effort in a post and provide sources -- I will then do the same with what I already wrote (if I didn't) as well as with my responses to your own.  Expanding my information on a subject makes my stance either change or strengthen the next time I speak of it or write a thesis.  Allow me to thank you sincerely for your time.
  • dirtyd77dirtyd77 Member UncommonPosts: 383

    10 Mil ??? Thanks for the laughs

     

     

  • NeoCroX997NeoCroX997 Member UncommonPosts: 28
    beta players are the costumers and reverse :)
  • BurntvetBurntvet Member RarePosts: 3,465
    Originally posted by CasaFranky

    i played beta and i wont buy it.
    whers the logic in 5 milion beta players and 10 million customers?!

    Same here.

    Just more marketing spin.

  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,311

    Originally posted by Tbau
    Crazy thread, I don't know of anyone that did not register at least 3 different email addresses to get into the beta and do know one person that did 10.The only chance this game had of getting 10 million in sales would have been if they released on all platforms at the same time. As it stands now, with the dates being so far apart, those waiting to buy on consoles will have 3 months worth of full reviews and see the opinions of those talking about what the game is like after the "shiny new" feel wears off and are more likely to pass. Then the droves of TES (console) fans thinking this is just another TES game will have time to figure out that it isn't and will end up passing. So, they missed their best chance at tricking those that don't actually look into their games and that's going to be a decent chunk of people.2-3 million in sales, may top 4 but half of those aren't going to end up enjoying the chopped up world and end game PvP as much as they thought they would, so that's going to kill any momentum in sales.

    so do you think the majority of console gamers go to forums? if so i would have to disagree.

    i think the main issue for most console gamers will be the subscription fee, it wont matter how good the game actually is because they will refuse to pay a sub, for any game.

    it's the console mentality of buying a new game or two every month or so.

    but if you think about it, the consoles don't have a game like this yet with this kind of mass scale pvp in a fantasy setting, especially with the ES IP to back it up.

    i don't think anybody rally knows how successful this game actually will be 6 months from now.

    it could have less than 500k subs or have more than 5 million, either one wouldn't surprise me honestly.

  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by baphamet

     

    Originally posted by Tbau
    Crazy thread, I don't know of anyone that did not register at least 3 different email addresses to get into the beta and do know one person that did 10.

     

    The only chance this game had of getting 10 million in sales would have been if they released on all platforms at the same time. As it stands now, with the dates being so far apart, those waiting to buy on consoles will have 3 months worth of full reviews and see the opinions of those talking about what the game is like after the "shiny new" feel wears off and are more likely to pass. Then the droves of TES (console) fans thinking this is just another TES game will have time to figure out that it isn't and will end up passing. So, they missed their best chance at tricking those that don't actually look into their games and that's going to be a decent chunk of people.

    2-3 million in sales, may top 4 but half of those aren't going to end up enjoying the chopped up world and end game PvP as much as they thought they would, so that's going to kill any momentum in sales.

     

    so do you think the majority of console gamers go to forums? if so i would have to disagree.

    i think the main issue for most console gamers will be the subscription fee, it wont matter how good the game actually is because they will refuse to pay a sub, for any game.

    it's the console mentality of buying a new game or two every month or so.

    but if you think about it, the consoles don't have a game like this yet with this kind of mass scale pvp in a fantasy setting, especially with the ES IP to back it up.

    i don't think anybody rally knows how successful this game actually will be 6 months from now.

    it could have less than 500k subs or have more than 5 million, either one wouldn't surprise me honestly.

    I also want this game to be successful but there is difference between being optimistic and claiming ESO will have 10 million in one year.... i don't know what OP has been smoking but no MMO in history has been able to pull that kind of numbers in one year.

    And to be blunt..ESO ain't even that special.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

    image

  • DignaDigna Member UncommonPosts: 1,994

    If they retain 1-1.5 million after the first 30 days they are doing swimmingly. The consoles will add a nice swell to the income whent hey come out, I am sure. Especially if they negotiate the XBox fee exemptions or whatever they were trying to do with that.

    I'll be one of the 'after 30 days' crowd. Curious to see what the payment options are. I'll go out on a limb and say 30/60/90/180. Lifetime seems unlikely.

  • majimaji Member UncommonPosts: 2,091
    I wish ESO all the best. Played a beta weekend and it didn't grab me. I'd maybe try it anyway, if it were not for the combination of cash shop + subscription fee + initial purchase. That's just too much.

    Let's play Fallen Earth (blind, 300 episodes)

    Let's play Guild Wars 2 (blind, 45 episodes)

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Originally posted by baphamet

     

    Originally posted by Tbau
    Crazy thread, I don't know of anyone that did not register at least 3 different email addresses to get into the beta and do know one person that did 10.

     

    The only chance this game had of getting 10 million in sales would have been if they released on all platforms at the same time. As it stands now, with the dates being so far apart, those waiting to buy on consoles will have 3 months worth of full reviews and see the opinions of those talking about what the game is like after the "shiny new" feel wears off and are more likely to pass. Then the droves of TES (console) fans thinking this is just another TES game will have time to figure out that it isn't and will end up passing. So, they missed their best chance at tricking those that don't actually look into their games and that's going to be a decent chunk of people.

    2-3 million in sales, may top 4 but half of those aren't going to end up enjoying the chopped up world and end game PvP as much as they thought they would, so that's going to kill any momentum in sales.

     

    so do you think the majority of console gamers go to forums? if so i would have to disagree.

    i think the main issue for most console gamers will be the subscription fee, it wont matter how good the game actually is because they will refuse to pay a sub, for any game.

    it's the console mentality of buying a new game or two every month or so.

    but if you think about it, the consoles don't have a game like this yet with this kind of mass scale pvp in a fantasy setting, especially with the ES IP to back it up.

    i don't think anybody rally knows how successful this game actually will be 6 months from now.

    it could have less than 500k subs or have more than 5 million, either one wouldn't surprise me honestly.

    Who could of thunk that millions of console user's would pay a subscription cost to use their console on their already payed for internet connection. 

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • PyukPyuk Member UncommonPosts: 762
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    I make spreadsheets at work - I don't want to make them for the games I play.

  • TbauTbau Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 401
    Originally posted by baphamet

     

    Originally posted by Tbau
    Crazy thread, I don't know of anyone that did not register at least 3 different email addresses to get into the beta and do know one person that did 10.

     

    The only chance this game had of getting 10 million in sales would have been if they released on all platforms at the same time. As it stands now, with the dates being so far apart, those waiting to buy on consoles will have 3 months worth of full reviews and see the opinions of those talking about what the game is like after the "shiny new" feel wears off and are more likely to pass. Then the droves of TES (console) fans thinking this is just another TES game will have time to figure out that it isn't and will end up passing. So, they missed their best chance at tricking those that don't actually look into their games and that's going to be a decent chunk of people.

    2-3 million in sales, may top 4 but half of those aren't going to end up enjoying the chopped up world and end game PvP as much as they thought they would, so that's going to kill any momentum in sales.

     

    so do you think the majority of console gamers go to forums? if so i would have to disagree.

     I underlined the part that should have pointed out that I don't think they do. 3 months is more than enough time for word of mouth to get out, for gaming magazines to cover it, for it to bleed into the media, for the disgruntled MMO player working at Gamestop to tell you bluntly it isn't what you think,  for droves of people to rant about it on "live" while you are getting your head blown off by some kid...

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    Given the past instances..what has more chances of happening? ESO going F2P in a year or ESO gaining 10 million in a year?

    Majority will tell you its former.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

    image

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719

    Lol. 10 million by the end of the year? Considering a 3-month retention rate >20% is considered excellent these days, it would take a hell of a lot more than 10 million to buy it to retain that many...

     

    I wouldn't be too surprised to see a number close to that for box sales at some point... but concurrent subs? 2 million and they'd be ecstatic. 

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    Given the past instances..what has more chances of happening? ESO going F2P in a year or ESO gaining 10 million in a year?

    Majority will tell you its former.

    I would agree.... But I still wouldn't bet on either. image

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • udonudon Member UncommonPosts: 1,803
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    Given the past instances..what has more chances of happening? ESO going F2P in a year or ESO gaining 10 million in a year?

    Majority will tell you its former.

    Your right in that following the trend the safe bet would be for it to go F2P or more likely B2P within a year but sooner or later someone is going to come along and beat that bet.  Now I really don't know if it's ESO or not but it does have the brand name behind it to at least have a shot.  So did SWTOR but I think that game was dragged down by the public corporation need for constant growth at any cost where Zenimax doesn't have the issue.  It remains to be seen if they are really committed to this title long term or not and the first 90 days will be telling for it's future.

  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by udon
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    Given the past instances..what has more chances of happening? ESO going F2P in a year or ESO gaining 10 million in a year?

    Majority will tell you its former.

    Your right in that following the trend the safe bet would be for it to go F2P or more likely B2P within a year but sooner or later someone is going to come along and beat that bet.  Now I really don't know if it's ESO or not but it does have the brand name behind it to at least have a shot.  So did SWTOR but I think that game was dragged down by the public corporation need for constant growth at any cost where Zenimax doesn't have the issue.  It remains to be seen if they are really committed to this title long term or not and the first 90 days will be telling for it's future.

    I hope so but for that to happen a MMO has to be really something special otherwise 10 million subs in a year is just a crazy dream.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

    image

  • alterfenixalterfenix Member UncommonPosts: 370
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

     

    Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:

     

    1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests."

    My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone?

    First doubtfully all registered testers participated in. Second there are some that registered multiple times using different e-mail accounts. Nevertheless I agree that it's still much better than pretty much any other MMORPG out there. Possibly even the best result in genre's history although can't be certain here. Also other games are no different when it comes to ppl loosing interest or having multiple accounts which definitely puts difference in numbers in favour of TESO.

     

    2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters."

    My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers.

    I wouldn't go really that far. 10 million players, sure but not at the same time. There may be even twice as much (or even more) registered non-trial accounts by the end of the year. Question is if the game can hold it or people will just pop for a month or two, leave and never come back. Still unknown.

     

    3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting.

    My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see.

    Ofc they are but this means little. Don't forget that things such as bigger server capacity may also impact server infrastructure performance and availability of service. It may not have that much to do with expecting more players.


    4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server.

    My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database.

     


    5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4.

    My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time.

     I hope that they don't. I have to agree with some other people here that lifetime sub is worse for long lasting game. If you expect that players won't spend much time in your game, be casuals or they just come, leave and switch to another game then yes, it is a good idea as it easily is more cash. In any other case.


    So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

    Seriously that would beat WoW's record. It took Blizzard over two years to reach that many players at the same time and then Blizzard had pretty much clean path with no obstacles while TESO has quite a few of them including the biggest one - WoW (no matter how much that game is different it still can't be ignored)

    So basically as much as I agree that results so far are impressive even if we consider all factors I still don't think we should jump with conslusions that far as you did

  • udonudon Member UncommonPosts: 1,803
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by udon
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    Your predictions are as much of "Out To Lunch" as this topic's prediction's 

    Given the past instances..what has more chances of happening? ESO going F2P in a year or ESO gaining 10 million in a year?

    Majority will tell you its former.

    Your right in that following the trend the safe bet would be for it to go F2P or more likely B2P within a year but sooner or later someone is going to come along and beat that bet.  Now I really don't know if it's ESO or not but it does have the brand name behind it to at least have a shot.  So did SWTOR but I think that game was dragged down by the public corporation need for constant growth at any cost where Zenimax doesn't have the issue.  It remains to be seen if they are really committed to this title long term or not and the first 90 days will be telling for it's future.

    I hope so but for that to happen a MMO has to be really something special otherwise 10 million subs in a year is just a crazy dream.

    I don't think 10 million sales much less subs in the first year is realistic either but I think those doomsayers who are claiming it will sell half a million copies and be F2P in 4 months are equally crazy.  All I'll predict at this point is that sales between all platforms will top 5 million and the sub retention rate is in Zenimax's hands depending on how they deliver their post launch content promise.   

  • MothanosMothanos Member UncommonPosts: 1,910

    if they had 1 million payed preorders it would have been linked to any news site from EU to US to Asia, but i have yet to see a payed preorder number so i am very sceptic about ESO.

    10 million users might be right as i suspect it will be free to play by then.
    Good laugh tough OP :)

  • alterfenixalterfenix Member UncommonPosts: 370
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.

    You know first bunch of WoW-killer squads in regards of every MMORPG after WoW. Then bunch of doomsayers predicting that everything will fail, now bunch of "professionals" comparing everything to SWTOR and it's failure. Like to follow trends, I guess?

  • LordZeikLordZeik Member UncommonPosts: 276
    We went from overly optimistic, back to a depressive state of the game is going f2p. That was fast..... Seems like the only games that people deem as "successful" on this site are non mmorpgs. Hell we could put a race game up on here and everyone will praise it and say how much they like the sharp turns. But, if someone managed to do a sort of racing mmo hybrid. People would say it will suck and be dead in a week or be the worst f2p/p2p/b2p ever. >_>; Can we at least give the game some time to breathe before we push all our expectations or lack there of on the poor title!
  • ThornrageThornrage Member UncommonPosts: 659

    I'll be surprised at 1 million at the end of the year.

    It is highly unlikely this game will reach 10 million in 5 years.

    "I don't give a sh*t what other people say. I play what I like and I'll pay to do it too!" - SerialMMOist

  • TbauTbau Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 401
    Originally posted by LordZeik
    Can we at least give the game some time to breathe before we push all our expectations or lack there of on the poor title!

     As long as a game is hyped to the point some AAA MMOs are, this is going to happen. They cant be realistic in how they promote their game and especially this one has tried to cater to SRPG players, MMO PvE players, MMO PvP players as well as Multi-player game players, so, expect the obvious to happen.

This discussion has been closed.