This thread will never end due to speculation. I won't jump in the debate anymore after this as I will eat my popcorn while reading this thead, but I believe that hard copies that have an alternative of digital purchases are dwindling. Now that we are on the Internet or information age, we won't be carrying around 10 pounds of book when we can carry it all over the place with 1 lb kindle.
People who are speculating asking for proof regarding ESO. I've already provided it in this post:
Originally posted by JHenry
Speculations speculations speculations. You guys should trade in the stock market, you might or might not get a profit because of speculations.
Anyways, over the physical copy and digital copy debate, again, this has been a speculation. If you guys remember, Tamriel foundry made a survey with about 4,000 respondents and they have more than 80% of the respondents said they bought the game digitally. I'm not implying anything, I'm just basing off my facts on a survey with a sample size of about 4,000.
EDIT: The survey I'm telling about is on 10:19 mark of the video I linked.
It's possible that the numbers are skewed because it is gotten from a forum, but it is the only survey made with numbers regarding the premise of the subject matter. If you have any proof that could prove otherwise (Don't generalize like gamestop or gamespot or whatever article that is not specific about ESO), then link it here. Again, all of this are speculation because WE don't have the freaking official numbers.
SOLA - www.solaguild.com (christian guild. Being christian is not required for membership though)
I wouldn't release my sales numbers publicly unless I had to (like Blizzard because they're publicly traded). No good ever comes from releasing sales numbers. You are either called a liar, cheat, or failure...
There's only 1 sales number I care about, that's my copy sold to me. You sheep can go bleat somewhere else
If I had to bet, I'd bet on failure being the most popular term if they actually did release sales numbers and retention rate.
Oh the joy of watching haters foam at the mouth about every topic they hate on a certain video game. It says unofficial granted the op is off either lower or higher but the anger and hate this post brings just shows the immaturity of that side of the line.
Originally posted by coorsguys Oh the joy of watching haters foam at the mouth about every topic they hate on a certain video game. It says unofficial granted the op is off either lower or higher but the anger and hate this post brings just shows the immaturity of that side of the line.
TBH I think topics like this only entertain the haters.
Especially when you claim facebook likes as your source for boxes sold
Originally posted by coorsguys Oh the joy of watching haters foam at the mouth about every topic they hate on a certain video game. It says unofficial granted the op is off either lower or higher but the anger and hate this post brings just shows the immaturity of that side of the line.
A hater is not someone who gives you facts to back up their claims....I hate on people who lie and make up stuff. The game can speak for itself. Im just tired of these threads talking about how many was sold based on 0 facts. And then when someone calls them out with facts they are called a hater?
Until official figures are release this is a pointless thread and argument.
My only idea about how the game is doing is that I have personally cancelled my sub. I did sub past the free month and observed there was a major decline in other players and a massive hike in Bots.
Until figures are release I have no idea how many copies of the game were sold but I can say the game appears to be dying slowly.
1.2 million is low for an IP like Elder Scrolls. I think the reason they are not releasing official figures (and may never do) is because it's way below what they expected. Every time a company goes quiet about this kind of thing there is something wrong. If subscription numbers drop to low and don't improve, they will shut the game down.
ESO didn't have a great start. It had poor reviews and didn't meet the expectations of Elder Scrolls fans. When an MMO starts off with an uphill struggle, history shows it's almost always doomed to fail.
8k people is a sample size large enough to "get results that reflect a target population" of 30m people with 98.66% certainty. This is a fact
Only if you are using a simple t-test, which requires you to assume the population is normally distributed. Since the population is likely biased, you should be using a non-parametric test or Bayesian analysis. That is, the confidence is significantly less than you suggest.
That is unfortunately true in most uses of t-statistics; people shouldn't use them when they do.
However, in any case 8k people is a more than adequately sized sample.
1.2 million is low for an IP like Elder Scrolls. I think the reason they are not releasing official figures (and may never do) is because it's way below what they expected. Every time a company goes quiet about this kind of thing there is something wrong. If subscription numbers drop to low and don't improve, they will shut the game down.
ESO didn't have a great start. It had poor reviews and didn't meet the expectations of Elder Scrolls fans. When an MMO starts off with an uphill struggle, history shows it's almost always doomed to fail.
Shut it down before they have a chance to cash in on console box sales or even milk their remaining users with a p2w cash shop? You sir have been smoking too much crack.
1.2 million is low for an IP like Elder Scrolls. I think the reason they are not releasing official figures (and may never do) is because it's way below what they expected. Every time a company goes quiet about this kind of thing there is something wrong. If subscription numbers drop to low and don't improve, they will shut the game down.
ESO didn't have a great start. It had poor reviews and didn't meet the expectations of Elder Scrolls fans. When an MMO starts off with an uphill struggle, history shows it's almost always doomed to fail.
Considering Skyrim sold around 3.5M on PC globally up till now and with boosted numbers from steam sales no doubt.. Then consider that not every ES fan is interested in an MMO and potentially 800K sold the first month pretty good ( assuming 50/50 boxed/digital ). For an MMO that is on the high end actually.
So why would they stop everything when the console release is coming? That is where the bulk of the ES fans are and if just 30% of those fans buy ESO then they are doing really well. Again not every ES fan is interested in an MMO.
Why on Earth are we arguing numbers when NOBODY has any?!?!?!
Might as well be arguing String Theory.
agree
i doubt Zenimax will ever give sub #s - good or bad
Trion never did for RIFT, Turbine never did for LOTRO
Privately held companies seldom do. I also doubt we'll ever get any real numbers.
This is the part that some folks seem to be overlooking. This company is beholden to a small number of private capitalists and investors. They may not have an interest in shouting how their product is doing from the roof tops, good or bad.
I am not saying the game is meeting their expectations, but just because they are silent does NOT mean they are tanking. It may be, but like so many have said, without number we might as well be arguing which color is better, red or green.
1.2 Million is a fine number... if it's actually true.
I doubt it is and even if it's not, the second most important number is how many subscribers actually renew.
SWTOR had very impressive sales numbers. But even 2 million sales didn't allow EA to recoup even half of what they sank into development and marketing.
Why on Earth are we arguing numbers when NOBODY has any?!?!?!
Might as well be arguing String Theory.
agree
i doubt Zenimax will ever give sub #s - good or bad
Trion never did for RIFT, Turbine never did for LOTRO
Privately held companies seldom do. I also doubt we'll ever get any real numbers.
This is the part that some folks seem to be overlooking. This company is beholden to a small number of private capitalists and investors. They may not have an interest in shouting how their product is doing from the roof tops, good or bad.
I am not saying the game is meeting their expectations, but just because they are silent does NOT mean they are tanking. It may be, but like so many have said, without number we might as well be arguing which color is better, red or green.
That is 100% true. Them not releasing any figures almost 2 months in does not mean the game is tanking at all, but in your heart of hearts, you know yourself that if the number was anything to brag about, they more than likely would have announced something.
And since we are all discussing what others seem to be overlooking/forgetting, Trion DID announce sales numbers for Rift after launch as iv linked to in a previous post of this very same thread.
Why on Earth are we arguing numbers when NOBODY has any?!?!?!
Might as well be arguing String Theory.
agree
i doubt Zenimax will ever give sub #s - good or bad
Trion never did for RIFT, Turbine never did for LOTRO
Privately held companies seldom do. I also doubt we'll ever get any real numbers.
This is the part that some folks seem to be overlooking. This company is beholden to a small number of private capitalists and investors. They may not have an interest in shouting how their product is doing from the roof tops, good or bad.
I am not saying the game is meeting their expectations, but just because they are silent does NOT mean they are tanking. It may be, but like so many have said, without number we might as well be arguing which color is better, red or green.
They were shouting from their roof tops over how much skyrim sold. When numbers aren't spectacular you never get words on how much they sold.
Iselin: And the next person who says "but it's a business, they need to make money" can just go fuck yourself.
Why on Earth are we arguing numbers when NOBODY has any?!?!?!
Might as well be arguing String Theory.
agree
i doubt Zenimax will ever give sub #s - good or bad
Trion never did for RIFT, Turbine never did for LOTRO
Privately held companies seldom do. I also doubt we'll ever get any real numbers.
This is the part that some folks seem to be overlooking. This company is beholden to a small number of private capitalists and investors. They may not have an interest in shouting how their product is doing from the roof tops, good or bad.
I am not saying the game is meeting their expectations, but just because they are silent does NOT mean they are tanking. It may be, but like so many have said, without number we might as well be arguing which color is better, red or green.
They were shouting from their roof tops over how much skyrim sold. When numbers aren't spectacular you never get words on how much they sold.
They were shouting from the rooftops 5 million of somethings for beta (accounts?)
So no, they dont have a problem with boasting when numbers are good.
There really arent 2 different schools of marketing for privately owned and publicly traded companies.
Originally posted by evilized They didn't hit their target sales. Can't give you exact numbers because I don't have that info but I do know with 100% certainty that their sales projection vs actual sales are way off and they are in damage control right now. It seems a fire has been lit under some of the top exec/dev's asses to fix "what's wrong" with the game so I would expect to see some fairly big changes over the next few months.
I hope so because I started out as a huge fan of this game. However the more I play it the more questionable become some of the design decisions. I'm in a plot-related vision quest and there are other players with me? WTF? Yet if I want to bring a friend to one of the difficulty-spike encounters?
No way.
Designing a game whose mechanics are absolutely perfectly tuned for botting yet your sole security is hoping no one notices or exploits it?
WTF?
There's a good game here despite it all but the VR1-10 'now go fight for your enemies for some bullshit star Trek hand-waving reason' is finishing me.
You want me to slowly grind two whole story lines for no good reason just to get to do Craglorn grinding?
Speaking as a huge fan - I really don't see that happening.
But i'm levelling slowly so I guess i'm hoping they'll come to their senses and release a whole new VR storyline that doesn't insult my intelligence.
This thread is insane. You cant compare hype about beta numbers before release to lack of post-release sales numbers, because before release they were still mainly in the advertising phase and had a huge financial incentive to hype the game. Now, after release, most people have decided to buy or not buy the game, so they have much less (if any) financial incentive to release information. People who bought the game will subscribe or not subscribe based on their experience with the game, not some information release that doesn't impact them in any way.
Also, based on everything I have seen and read, the digital sales are higher than what some here are saying. I am in a guild with people I didn't meet before release (even though I was in beta a long time), and almost every single person bought the digital version. I KNOW that most of the people I met in beta and talked with bought the digital version. ESO had stronger reasons than most to pre-purchase the game in terms of racial/alliance choice, horse, etc. Also, comparing ESO to releases from years past isn't fair either because the ratio of digital sales is increasing in general. And they make significantly more profit on self-sales and especially self-digital sales than sales through 3rd party retailers who take some of the profit, not to mention the cost of a disk and box plus shipment.
There are so many biases and lack of financial understanding in this thread it serves as little but a reason for the ESO haters to hate some more and act like their biases are fact.
There are so many biases and lack of financial understanding in this thread it serves as little but a reason for the ESO haters to hate some more and act like their biases are fact.
Because no fanboy ever, especially in this thread, has acted with bias. Only the haters.
This thread is insane. You cant compare hype about beta numbers before release to lack of post-release sales numbers, because before release they were still mainly in the advertising phase and had a huge financial incentive to hype the game. Now, after release, most people have decided to buy or not buy the game, so they have much less (if any) financial incentive to release information. People who bought the game will subscribe or not subscribe based on their experience with the game, not some information release that doesn't impact them in any way.
Also, based on everything I have seen and read, the digital sales are higher than what some here are saying. I am in a guild with people I didn't meet before release (even though I was in beta a long time), and almost every single person bought the digital version. I KNOW that most of the people I met in beta and talked with bought the digital version. ESO had stronger reasons than most to pre-purchase the game in terms of racial/alliance choice, horse, etc. Also, comparing ESO to releases from years past isn't fair either because the ratio of digital sales is increasing in general. And they make significantly more profit on self-sales and especially self-digital sales than sales through 3rd party retailers who take some of the profit, not to mention the cost of a disk and box plus shipment.
There are so many biases and lack of financial understanding in this thread it serves as little but a reason for the ESO haters to hate some more and act like their biases are fact.
Actually, yes - you can infer that from the boasting during beta to silence now - that something is amiss.
If ESO sold 5 million copies, you can bet every dollar you own that their marketing department would be running wild with that.
And if they sold 2 million copies, what is the incentive for saying something? What number would make the critics of the game say "yup, that's good"?
Any number south of 5 million will be spun as a failure. Why would they release this information? Does the fact that it's people hostile to the game demanding the information act as a clue as to why they gain nothing by saying anything?
so lets just guess 500K subs, that is still 500K times 15 a month
7.5 million a month times 12 = 76.5 million a year if they can hold that number
and console comes out in 6 months
thats 80$ per person too....anohter 40 million
now too bad about the bots and other stuff that really drove away a lot a people and the shut up and quit then crowd isnt helping themselves at 15 bucks a hour it would cost 10.8 K a month per person to police the game....
put 96 on , 48 EU , 48 NA ....thats 16 per any time a day
and make it so everyone knows whom to call....
thats a million per month right there BUT it will show your totoally serious and KEEP people....
Comments
This thread will never end due to speculation. I won't jump in the debate anymore after this as I will eat my popcorn while reading this thead, but I believe that hard copies that have an alternative of digital purchases are dwindling. Now that we are on the Internet or information age, we won't be carrying around 10 pounds of book when we can carry it all over the place with 1 lb kindle.
People who are speculating asking for proof regarding ESO. I've already provided it in this post:
It's possible that the numbers are skewed because it is gotten from a forum, but it is the only survey made with numbers regarding the premise of the subject matter. If you have any proof that could prove otherwise (Don't generalize like gamestop or gamespot or whatever article that is not specific about ESO), then link it here. Again, all of this are speculation because WE don't have the freaking official numbers.
SOLA - www.solaguild.com
(christian guild. Being christian is not required for membership though)
If I had to bet, I'd bet on failure being the most popular term if they actually did release sales numbers and retention rate.
You, and every other company on earth, would if the number was something to brag about (AoC, WAR, Rift, SWTOR, GW2).
Because someone on the internet posted ESO sold 1,2 million copies.
Its quite possible that it will be cited as credible source around here lol
TBH I think topics like this only entertain the haters.
Especially when you claim facebook likes as your source for boxes sold
..Cake..
A hater is not someone who gives you facts to back up their claims....I hate on people who lie and make up stuff. The game can speak for itself. Im just tired of these threads talking about how many was sold based on 0 facts. And then when someone calls them out with facts they are called a hater?
Until official figures are release this is a pointless thread and argument.
My only idea about how the game is doing is that I have personally cancelled my sub. I did sub past the free month and observed there was a major decline in other players and a massive hike in Bots.
Until figures are release I have no idea how many copies of the game were sold but I can say the game appears to be dying slowly.
1.2 million is low for an IP like Elder Scrolls. I think the reason they are not releasing official figures (and may never do) is because it's way below what they expected. Every time a company goes quiet about this kind of thing there is something wrong. If subscription numbers drop to low and don't improve, they will shut the game down.
ESO didn't have a great start. It had poor reviews and didn't meet the expectations of Elder Scrolls fans. When an MMO starts off with an uphill struggle, history shows it's almost always doomed to fail.
Only if you are using a simple t-test, which requires you to assume the population is normally distributed. Since the population is likely biased, you should be using a non-parametric test or Bayesian analysis. That is, the confidence is significantly less than you suggest.
That is unfortunately true in most uses of t-statistics; people shouldn't use them when they do.
However, in any case 8k people is a more than adequately sized sample.
Shut it down before they have a chance to cash in on console box sales or even milk their remaining users with a p2w cash shop? You sir have been smoking too much crack.
Considering Skyrim sold around 3.5M on PC globally up till now and with boosted numbers from steam sales no doubt.. Then consider that not every ES fan is interested in an MMO and potentially 800K sold the first month pretty good ( assuming 50/50 boxed/digital ). For an MMO that is on the high end actually.
So why would they stop everything when the console release is coming? That is where the bulk of the ES fans are and if just 30% of those fans buy ESO then they are doing really well. Again not every ES fan is interested in an MMO.
This is the part that some folks seem to be overlooking. This company is beholden to a small number of private capitalists and investors. They may not have an interest in shouting how their product is doing from the roof tops, good or bad.
I am not saying the game is meeting their expectations, but just because they are silent does NOT mean they are tanking. It may be, but like so many have said, without number we might as well be arguing which color is better, red or green.
1.2 Million is a fine number... if it's actually true.
I doubt it is and even if it's not, the second most important number is how many subscribers actually renew.
SWTOR had very impressive sales numbers. But even 2 million sales didn't allow EA to recoup even half of what they sank into development and marketing.
That is 100% true. Them not releasing any figures almost 2 months in does not mean the game is tanking at all, but in your heart of hearts, you know yourself that if the number was anything to brag about, they more than likely would have announced something.
And since we are all discussing what others seem to be overlooking/forgetting, Trion DID announce sales numbers for Rift after launch as iv linked to in a previous post of this very same thread.
They were shouting from their roof tops over how much skyrim sold. When numbers aren't spectacular you never get words on how much they sold.
They were shouting from the rooftops 5 million of somethings for beta (accounts?)
So no, they dont have a problem with boasting when numbers are good.
There really arent 2 different schools of marketing for privately owned and publicly traded companies.
I hope so because I started out as a huge fan of this game. However the more I play it the more questionable become some of the design decisions. I'm in a plot-related vision quest and there are other players with me? WTF? Yet if I want to bring a friend to one of the difficulty-spike encounters?
No way.
Designing a game whose mechanics are absolutely perfectly tuned for botting yet your sole security is hoping no one notices or exploits it?
WTF?
There's a good game here despite it all but the VR1-10 'now go fight for your enemies for some bullshit star Trek hand-waving reason' is finishing me.
You want me to slowly grind two whole story lines for no good reason just to get to do Craglorn grinding?
Speaking as a huge fan - I really don't see that happening.
But i'm levelling slowly so I guess i'm hoping they'll come to their senses and release a whole new VR storyline that doesn't insult my intelligence.
This thread is insane. You cant compare hype about beta numbers before release to lack of post-release sales numbers, because before release they were still mainly in the advertising phase and had a huge financial incentive to hype the game. Now, after release, most people have decided to buy or not buy the game, so they have much less (if any) financial incentive to release information. People who bought the game will subscribe or not subscribe based on their experience with the game, not some information release that doesn't impact them in any way.
Also, based on everything I have seen and read, the digital sales are higher than what some here are saying. I am in a guild with people I didn't meet before release (even though I was in beta a long time), and almost every single person bought the digital version. I KNOW that most of the people I met in beta and talked with bought the digital version. ESO had stronger reasons than most to pre-purchase the game in terms of racial/alliance choice, horse, etc. Also, comparing ESO to releases from years past isn't fair either because the ratio of digital sales is increasing in general. And they make significantly more profit on self-sales and especially self-digital sales than sales through 3rd party retailers who take some of the profit, not to mention the cost of a disk and box plus shipment.
There are so many biases and lack of financial understanding in this thread it serves as little but a reason for the ESO haters to hate some more and act like their biases are fact.
Elladan - ESO (AD)
Camring - SWTOR (Ebon Hawk)
Eol & Justinian - Rift (Faeblight)
Ceol and Duri - LotRO (Landroval)
Kili - WoW
Eol - Lineage 2
Camring - SWG
Justinian (Nimue), Camring - DAoC
Because no fanboy ever, especially in this thread, has acted with bias. Only the haters.
..Cake..
Actually, yes - you can infer that from the boasting during beta to silence now - that something is amiss.
If ESO sold 5 million copies, you can bet every dollar you own that their marketing department would be running wild with that.
And if they sold 2 million copies, what is the incentive for saying something? What number would make the critics of the game say "yup, that's good"?
Any number south of 5 million will be spun as a failure. Why would they release this information? Does the fact that it's people hostile to the game demanding the information act as a clue as to why they gain nothing by saying anything?
so lets just guess 500K subs, that is still 500K times 15 a month
7.5 million a month times 12 = 76.5 million a year if they can hold that number
and console comes out in 6 monthsthats 80$ per person too....anohter 40 million
now too bad about the bots and other stuff that really drove away a lot a people and the shut up and quit then crowd isnt helping themselves at 15 bucks a hour it would cost 10.8 K a month per person to police the game....
put 96 on , 48 EU , 48 NA ....thats 16 per any time a day
and make it so everyone knows whom to call....
thats a million per month right there BUT it will show your totoally serious and KEEP people....
it will also expose those that used them.....
5.6 gb patch so far