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Elder Scrolls Online has ~775,000 subscribers - report

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  • MaelwyddMaelwydd Member Posts: 1,123
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by mep630

    its funny to see the arguments on this post, I am guessing most of the idiot replies are from people who never even played the game

    anyone who played, like me, saw guilds drop people faster then any other game before.  I been around a long time, and played a lot of mmos, and I was stoked for ESO at beta, however this game absolutely crushed its player base. 

    Anyone who played this game knows the truth, as for 700k subs? that seems laughable, since most of the PvP campaigns are dead.

    but who knows maybe you got a lot of PvE people doing the same crap over and over??

    I would love to see the numbers on this, and I doubt the console will even do any good.

    and of course they got good sales with the whole ESO name. Its too bad they sucked as a company and had zero clue how to design or manage an MMO.

    Since you happen to know more about the corporate world, software development, and how to develop a top notch MMO, which of the games under development is yours or are you the lead developer for?  Wait, don't answer that, even though I could use a good laugh, I don't want it at your expense.

    Oh please!

    You don't need to take a bite from a pile of Dog poo to know it will taste like shit.

    A consumer doesn't need to know how to make a product to know if it is good or not so you are using a stupid argument.

  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 24,273

    Those who say 200k do need to remember Skyrim sold well over 5 million copies. This is not another IP no one has heard of MMO. How many are still with us is a fair point, but the idea TESO only sold 200k is laughable, and we now have many more coming online from Steam.

    To use phasing as a reason we are still seeing players is a bit misleading to my eyes. Guilds are still strong, numbers are not going down, guilds are not phased. :)

  • immodiumimmodium Member RarePosts: 2,610
    Originally posted by Scot

    Those who say 200k do need to remember Skyrim sold well over 5 million copies. This is not another IP no one has heard of MMO. How many are still with us is a fair point, but the idea TESO only sold 200k is laughable, and we now have many more coming online from Steam.

    To use phasing as a reason we are still seeing players is a bit misleading to my eyes. Guilds are still strong, numbers are not going down, guilds are not phased. :)

    According to statisticbrain Skyrim has sold just over 20 million copies, 14% of that are PC sales. 59% Xbox, 27% PS3.

    I don't see Bethesda releasing any information regarding sales figures untill it hits console.

    image
  • HerzyHerzy Member UncommonPosts: 184
    Originally posted by Scot

    Those who say 200k do need to remember Skyrim sold well over 5 million copies. This is not another IP no one has heard of MMO. How many are still with us is a fair point, but the idea TESO only sold 200k is laughable, and we now have many more coming online from Steam.

    To use phasing as a reason we are still seeing players is a bit misleading to my eyes. Guilds are still strong, numbers are not going down, guilds are not phased. :)

    Adding to this. Out of the TES, Skyrim alone has sold well over 20 million.

    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-01-27-skyrim-has-sold-over-20-million-copies

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls_V:_Skyrim

  • KangaroomouseKangaroomouse Member Posts: 394
    Originally posted by Scot

    Those who say 200k do need to remember Skyrim sold well over 5 million copies. This is not another IP no one has heard of MMO. How many are still with us is a fair point, but the idea TESO only sold 200k is laughable, and we now have many more coming online from Steam.

    To use phasing as a reason we are still seeing players is a bit misleading to my eyes. Guilds are still strong, numbers are not going down, guilds are not phased. :)

    Skyrims sold 20 million copies worldwide my friend. That however does not mean that TESO will do the same.

  • STYNKFYSTSTYNKFYST Member Posts: 290
    Originally posted by Maelwydd
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by mep630

    its funny to see the arguments on this post, I am guessing most of the idiot replies are from people who never even played the game

    anyone who played, like me, saw guilds drop people faster then any other game before.  I been around a long time, and played a lot of mmos, and I was stoked for ESO at beta, however this game absolutely crushed its player base. 

    Anyone who played this game knows the truth, as for 700k subs? that seems laughable, since most of the PvP campaigns are dead.

    but who knows maybe you got a lot of PvE people doing the same crap over and over??

    I would love to see the numbers on this, and I doubt the console will even do any good.

    and of course they got good sales with the whole ESO name. Its too bad they sucked as a company and had zero clue how to design or manage an MMO.

    Since you happen to know more about the corporate world, software development, and how to develop a top notch MMO, which of the games under development is yours or are you the lead developer for?  Wait, don't answer that, even though I could use a good laugh, I don't want it at your expense.

    Oh please!

    You don't need to take a bite from a pile of Dog poo to know it will taste like shit.

    A consumer doesn't need to know how to make a product to know if it is good or not so you are using a stupid argument.

    You do if you are trying to convince others what poo tastes like.

     

    As far as what Mep said? Whatever. Guilds dropping ppl and whatnot. Give me a break. The game has people EVERYWHERE. You cannot travel to a spot without seeing another person unless you your are on at the weakest time and are begging not to see anyone.

     

    You people are so driven to say ESO has failed and has no one playing it. Or that people are leaving in droves. You sound like a bunch of bitter housewives talking about the new sport your hubby is into....just stop already.

  • CryptorCryptor Member UncommonPosts: 523
    This is nothing more then a guess, stop acting like there is any credibility to what these guys say.
  • KangaroomouseKangaroomouse Member Posts: 394
    Originally posted by Grym

    Um.... even if the game only kept 200,000 subs, that still means they are pulling in $3,000,000 per month.  Profitable depends on if they surpass the amount it cost to make this game. 

    if they sold 1,000,000 issues of the game, that's $50,000,000 (on average, some people bought the $80 pack).

    Over a 2 month period, they've already amassed over $56,000,000. 

    I can't speak to numbers of subs, I don't know.  But from my own perspective playing, I see a healthy, thriving population running all over the place when I log in.  Not an empty wasteland like Vanguard was near the end. 

    Your first grade math unfortunately does not work in the real world. Just because they have sales of 56 million does not mean they have a profit of 56 million. If that's what you mean by "amassed over $56,000,000."

    If you deduct tax, credit card processing fees, running cost, employees plus publishing and advertising you are looking at maybe 15-20 million profit at best.

  • STYNKFYSTSTYNKFYST Member Posts: 290
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by Grym

    Um.... even if the game only kept 200,000 subs, that still means they are pulling in $3,000,000 per month.  Profitable depends on if they surpass the amount it cost to make this game. 

    if they sold 1,000,000 issues of the game, that's $50,000,000 (on average, some people bought the $80 pack).

    Over a 2 month period, they've already amassed over $56,000,000. 

    I can't speak to numbers of subs, I don't know.  But from my own perspective playing, I see a healthy, thriving population running all over the place when I log in.  Not an empty wasteland like Vanguard was near the end. 

    Your first grade math unfortunately does not work in the real world. Just because they have sales of 56 million does not mean they have a profit of 56 million. If that's what you mean by "amassed over $56,000,000."

    If you deduct tax, credit card processing fees, running cost, employees plus publishing and advertising you are looking at maybe 15-20 million profit at best.

    ^Point proven....

     

    Why do we care? Why do YOU care?!? Play or don't. What does it matter to you the money made?

  • KangaroomouseKangaroomouse Member Posts: 394
    Originally posted by STYNKFYST
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by Grym

    Um.... even if the game only kept 200,000 subs, that still means they are pulling in $3,000,000 per month.  Profitable depends on if they surpass the amount it cost to make this game. 

    if they sold 1,000,000 issues of the game, that's $50,000,000 (on average, some people bought the $80 pack).

    Over a 2 month period, they've already amassed over $56,000,000. 

    I can't speak to numbers of subs, I don't know.  But from my own perspective playing, I see a healthy, thriving population running all over the place when I log in.  Not an empty wasteland like Vanguard was near the end. 

    Your first grade math unfortunately does not work in the real world. Just because they have sales of 56 million does not mean they have a profit of 56 million. If that's what you mean by "amassed over $56,000,000."

    If you deduct tax, credit card processing fees, running cost, employees plus publishing and advertising you are looking at maybe 15-20 million profit at best.

    ^Point proven....

    1. Why do we care?

    2. Why do YOU care?!?

    3.Play or don't. What does it matter to you the money made?

    1. You seem to care since you posted a reply.

    ----

    2. Do i care how much money they make? No i don't and i don't know where you got that idea from.

    ----

    3. Do i care if someone posts completely silly first grade economics math? Yes, i feel obliged to educate them and correct them so they learn something.

    ----

    PS: I can only imagine you are angry because the game is really not what you expected and you feel betrayed and the need to lash out and try to defend your investment. Let me tell you, it get's better after a while. Just let it go, trust me you feel much better.

  • zwei2zwei2 Member Posts: 361
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by STYNKFYST
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by Grym

    Um.... even if the game only kept 200,000 subs, that still means they are pulling in $3,000,000 per month.  Profitable depends on if they surpass the amount it cost to make this game. 

    if they sold 1,000,000 issues of the game, that's $50,000,000 (on average, some people bought the $80 pack).

    Over a 2 month period, they've already amassed over $56,000,000. 

    I can't speak to numbers of subs, I don't know.  But from my own perspective playing, I see a healthy, thriving population running all over the place when I log in.  Not an empty wasteland like Vanguard was near the end. 

    Your first grade math unfortunately does not work in the real world. Just because they have sales of 56 million does not mean they have a profit of 56 million. If that's what you mean by "amassed over $56,000,000."

    If you deduct tax, credit card processing fees, running cost, employees plus publishing and advertising you are looking at maybe 15-20 million profit at best.

    ^Point proven....

    1. Why do we care?

    2. Why do YOU care?!?

    3.Play or don't. What does it matter to you the money made?

    1. You seem to care since you posted a reply.

    ----

    2. Do i care how much money they make? No i don't and i don't know where you got that idea from.

    ----

    3. Do i care if someone posts completely silly first grade economics math? Yes, i feel obliged to educate them and correct them so they learn something.

    ----

    PS: I can only imagine you are angry because the game is really not what you expected and you feel betrayed and the need to lash out and try to defend your investment. Let me tell you, it get's better after a while. Just let it go, trust me you feel much better.

    You should definately apply your advice to yourself. Take a deep breath, and just let go.

     

    Avoid coming to games you "care" and "invest" so much, like ESO and Archeage. Avoid coming here because you will be so obliged to educate other posters' silly posts, because you just "care" too much and will feel totally upset if you cannot get your point across with so many posts emphasizing the same things over, and over, and over again. The ESO fans and the general posters will much enjoy a broader, critical discussion of the game.

     

    With your willing exit, fans of ESO will guadually enjoy a better time and more meaningful conversation, while you will feel MUCH BETTER, trust me. Hey, is that Black Desert whistling an inviting tune?

    The possibility of the universe collapsing into a singularity is higher than the birth of a perfect MMORPG.

  • Entris38Entris38 Member UncommonPosts: 401
    Originally posted by immodium
    Originally posted by Scot

    Those who say 200k do need to remember Skyrim sold well over 5 million copies. This is not another IP no one has heard of MMO. How many are still with us is a fair point, but the idea TESO only sold 200k is laughable, and we now have many more coming online from Steam.

    To use phasing as a reason we are still seeing players is a bit misleading to my eyes. Guilds are still strong, numbers are not going down, guilds are not phased. :)

    According to statisticbrain Skyrim has sold just over 20 million copies, 14% of that are PC sales. 59% Xbox, 27% PS3.

    I don't see Bethesda releasing any information regarding sales figures untill it hits console.

    Though those numbers are more than likely unreachable, great job and great game. I've not experienced any game breaking bugs, though some irritating ones. Hoping they find a way to make RvR worth competing in, as shame they made it meaningless.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by Reklaw
    Originally posted by Kyleran
    Originally posted by Aeonblades
    Originally posted by Iselin

    Weird how many in this thread think one anonymous poster's opinion is just as valid as what a company that does this as their business is publishing as their educated guess.

     

    Yes, they're all guesses... some much better than others. This is who they are. If you're going to challenge their numbers, tell me who the fuck you are and why I should believe you instead of them.

     

    Ain't the internet fun?

    You just destroyed 9 pages of arguments with a single post. I thought we were letting them squabble a few more pages first before someone actually saw that SuperData actually works with ZoS and is a leading company in monitoring mobile and MMO gaming trends.

     

    Shame on you Iselin! The thread was getting juicy too! :p

    Ah, good point, their close relationship could be skewing the results to the high side as it is never wise to piss off your customers by publishing  unfavorable information about them.

     

    Good afternoon mister TAX, nice of you to visit us

    Mr TAX: You filed in a amount consistent to about 200/250k subscribers, yet we reading you seem to have 3x as much, please explain.

    Zenimax: Well mr Tax, we paid SuperDate to forge our date for public means....

     

     

    Good point, Reklaw.

    Not to mention that considering the incestuous nature of the industry, making up numbers would be about the stupidest decision to ever make. Their business model works because in many cases, the people giving them numbers are also people familiar with the numbers from other developers. 

    If numbers were fudged or unreliable, it would be very quickly noticed and studios wouldn't be buying this report year after year. I could understand the tinfoilhattery if this was the first time these reports have come out, but with a three year history of analytical firms, developers and researchers buying, using, and citing the data one would think the conspiracy theorists here would finally acknowledge they're just being argumentative at this point. 

     

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • KangaroomouseKangaroomouse Member Posts: 394
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by STYNKFYST
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by Grym

    Um.... even if the game only kept 200,000 subs, that still means they are pulling in $3,000,000 per month.  Profitable depends on if they surpass the amount it cost to make this game. 

    if they sold 1,000,000 issues of the game, that's $50,000,000 (on average, some people bought the $80 pack).

    Over a 2 month period, they've already amassed over $56,000,000. 

    I can't speak to numbers of subs, I don't know.  But from my own perspective playing, I see a healthy, thriving population running all over the place when I log in.  Not an empty wasteland like Vanguard was near the end. 

    Your first grade math unfortunately does not work in the real world. Just because they have sales of 56 million does not mean they have a profit of 56 million. If that's what you mean by "amassed over $56,000,000."

    If you deduct tax, credit card processing fees, running cost, employees plus publishing and advertising you are looking at maybe 15-20 million profit at best.

    ^Point proven....

    1. Why do we care?

    2. Why do YOU care?!?

    3.Play or don't. What does it matter to you the money made?

    1. You seem to care since you posted a reply.

    ----

    2. Do i care how much money they make? No i don't and i don't know where you got that idea from.

    ----

    3. Do i care if someone posts completely silly first grade economics math? Yes, i feel obliged to educate them and correct them so they learn something.

    ----

    PS: I can only imagine you are angry because the game is really not what you expected and you feel betrayed and the need to lash out and try to defend your investment. Let me tell you, it get's better after a while. Just let it go, trust me you feel much better.

    You should definately apply your advice to yourself. Take a deep breath, and just let go.

    Avoid coming to games you "care" and "invest" so much, like ESO and Archeage. Avoid coming here because you will be so obliged to educate other posters' silly posts, because you just "care" too much and will feel totally upset if you cannot get your point across with so many posts emphasizing the same things over, and over, and over again. The ESO fans and the general posters will much enjoy a broader, critical discussion of the game.

    With your willing exit, fans of ESO will guadually enjoy a better time and more meaningful conversation, while you will feel MUCH BETTER, trust me. Hey, is that Black Desert whistling an inviting tune?

    And right back at you. Apply your advice of my advice to yourself. Take a deep breath and just let go.

    ----

    If you don't have anything to add to this discussion and just attack me then please use the IGNORE button. That is what that button was made for. Do it, you feel much better.

  • zwei2zwei2 Member Posts: 361
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    -snippppppppppppppp-

    And right back at you. Apply your advice of my advice to yourself. Take a deep breath and just let go.

    ----

    If you don't have anything to add to this discussion and just attack me then please use the IGNORE button. That is what that button was made for. Do it, you feel much better.

    Yup, that is why I am much more relaxed when replying back to this post. I am sorry that you seems unable to take your own advice when others can easily so.

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    The possibility of the universe collapsing into a singularity is higher than the birth of a perfect MMORPG.

  • KangaroomouseKangaroomouse Member Posts: 394
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    -snippppppppppppppp-

    And right back at you. Apply your advice of my advice to yourself. Take a deep breath and just let go.

    ----

    If you don't have anything to add to this discussion and just attack me then please use the IGNORE button. That is what that button was made for. Do it, you feel much better.

    Yup, that is why I am much more relaxed when replying back to this post. I am sorry that you seems unable to take your own advice when others can easily so.

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    I don't doubt these numbers, never said i did. Are they good for a game with this heritage? I don't think so, i expected a lot more. They are still solid numbers and they probably can sustain service if they cut down on servers.

    ----

    There are MMO's out there that have survived far longer with less subscribers so ESO is probably doing fine too.

    ----

    I don't know if ZeniMax has to do a public financial report, but if they do the numbers are certainly going to be correct and no one can say they are fake.

  • zwei2zwei2 Member Posts: 361
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    -snippppppppppppppp-

    And right back at you. Apply your advice of my advice to yourself. Take a deep breath and just let go.

    ----

    If you don't have anything to add to this discussion and just attack me then please use the IGNORE button. That is what that button was made for. Do it, you feel much better.

    Yup, that is why I am much more relaxed when replying back to this post. I am sorry that you seems unable to take your own advice when others can easily so.

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    I don't doubt these numbers, never said i did. Are they good for a game with this heritage? I don't think so, i expected a lot more. They are still solid numbers and they probably can sustain service if they cut down on servers.

    ----

    There are MMO's out there that have survived far longer with less subscribers so ESO is probably doing fine too.

    ----

    I don't know if ZeniMax has to do a public financial report, but if they do the numbers are certainly going to be correct and no one can say they are fake.

    There, it isn't so hard to just let it go, and post more constructive comments, right? It is a good step.

     

    Of course, everyone is eager for Zenimax to back up the claims, so it can strength their own point of view. Or perhaps never to release one.

     

    Anyone and everyone is entitled to doubt the numbers, and can come up with any other numbers. Just be aware that others are also entitled to doubt numbers that are pulled out of the ass.

    The possibility of the universe collapsing into a singularity is higher than the birth of a perfect MMORPG.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by zwei2

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    Zenimax are not making any numbers up; these are not Zenimax numbers.

     

    How the number has been created:

    • Take the Raptr number in "month 1" (it may not be Raptr, it could be several tracking apps added together).
    • multiply by some factor because not all PC users use e.g. Raptr. So if 50% "use" Raptr multiply by 2;
    • Track those users - get the computer to establish:
    • Using Raptr in first month = purchase;
    • Still using Raptr a month later = subscriber;
    • New user in month 2 = new sale
    • And so on.
    • And if you want to estimate income - multiply subs by $15 or whatever.
    And that is basically all there is to it.
     
    No one expects Zenimax to comment on Raptr or XFire reports so why should they comment on this data.

     

  • zwei2zwei2 Member Posts: 361
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by zwei2

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    Zenimax are not making any numbers up; these are not Zenimax numbers.

     

    How the number has been created:

    • Take the Raptr number in "month 1" (it may not be Raptr, it could be several tracking apps added together).
    • multiply by some factor because not all PC users use e.g. Raptr. So if 50% "use" Raptr multiply by 2;
    • Track those users - get the computer to establish:
    • Using Raptr in first month = purchase;
    • Still using Raptr a month later = subscriber;
    • New user in month 2 = new sale
    • And so on.
    • And if you want to estimate income - multiply subs by $15 or whatever.
    And that is basically all there is to it.
     
    No one expects Zenimax to comment on Raptr or XFire reports so why should they comment on this data.

     

    That is the gist of the problem here; the information is provided by a third party. The company may be supported by Zenimax, but it is still not first hand info.

     

    That is why I am suggesting that if Zenimax is to follow up with a more formal announcement, whether to support or denounce the numbers, then posters will be able to see whether the sub numbers is true or not. Which, in this case, most probably never to be announced.

    The possibility of the universe collapsing into a singularity is higher than the birth of a perfect MMORPG.

  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 24,273
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by zwei2

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    Zenimax are not making any numbers up; these are not Zenimax numbers.

     

    How the number has been created:

    • Take the Raptr number in "month 1" (it may not be Raptr, it could be several tracking apps added together).
    • multiply by some factor because not all PC users use e.g. Raptr. So if 50% "use" Raptr multiply by 2;
    • Track those users - get the computer to establish:
    • Using Raptr in first month = purchase;
    • Still using Raptr a month later = subscriber;
    • New user in month 2 = new sale
    • And so on.
    • And if you want to estimate income - multiply subs by $15 or whatever.
    And that is basically all there is to it.
     
    No one expects Zenimax to comment on Raptr or XFire reports so why should they comment on this data.

     

    That is the gist of the problem here; the information is provided by a third party. The company may be supported by Zenimax, but it is still not first hand info.

     

    That is why I am suggesting that if Zenimax is to follow up with a more formal announcement, whether to support or denounce the numbers, then posters will be able to see whether the sub numbers is true or not. Which, in this case, most probably never to be announced.

    A fair point but answer me this. Wildstar had no official figures, yet we saw threads on their forum saying how great the sales looked on the basis of some vague quotes about how well the game was doing. When Zenimax released no figures we had threads on here telling us that it was a conspiracy and Zenimax was hiding it to fool us.

    Forgive me then for seeing a double standard and wondering why some posters on here (not saying yourself) have just spewed bile on TESO in every way they possibly can from week one.

    No doubt this year we will get another of these stats companies telling us that F2P is now the major player in the MMO market. No doubt some of the same posters on here who told us not to trust the TESO figures will be telling us telling us to trust those figures. Another double standard, this time only accepting data which favours F2P. 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by Kangaroomouse
    -snippppppppppppppp-

    And right back at you. Apply your advice of my advice to yourself. Take a deep breath and just let go.

    ----

    If you don't have anything to add to this discussion and just attack me then please use the IGNORE button. That is what that button was made for. Do it, you feel much better.

    Yup, that is why I am much more relaxed when replying back to this post. I am sorry that you seems unable to take your own advice when others can easily so.

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    I don't doubt these numbers, never said i did. Are they good for a game with this heritage? I don't think so, i expected a lot more. They are still solid numbers and they probably can sustain service if they cut down on servers.

    ----

    There are MMO's out there that have survived far longer with less subscribers so ESO is probably doing fine too.

    ----

    I don't know if ZeniMax has to do a public financial report, but if they do the numbers are certainly going to be correct and no one can say they are fake.

     

    The "numbers" aren't good.  They never are.  Any number that isn't a number provided by the publisher is a number that is known to be wrong.  How wrong?  I don't know.  It's different every time.  The truly interesting part here is the quirk in human psychology that looks at a number that is known to be wrong, and then takes that number as gospel because it's coming from a source that can't possibly be right.

     

    **

     

    Somebody said something about Raptr up there, which is where most of my post came from.  Super Data actually gets their information from the developers or publishers.  It's not Raptr, or if it is Raptr, it's Raptr supported by more information.  Do they have exact numbers?  Of course not.  But they probably have a margin for error that they can publish along with their information, if you pay for it, not a made up factor to multiply the results by.  :-)

     

     

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by Scot

     

    A fair point but answer me this. Wildstar had no official figures, yet we saw threads on their forum saying how great the sales looked on the basis of some vague quotes about how well the game was doing. When Zenimax released no figures we had threads on here telling us that it was a conspiracy and Zenimax was hiding it to fool us.

    Forgive me then for seeing a double standard and wondering why some posters on here (not saying yourself) have just spewed bile on TESO in every way they possibly can from week one.

     

    In most - maybe all cases - it will be different posters not double standards. If the same poster uses a source to praise/lambast one game and then calls out someone who has praised/lambasted a different game using the same source then - as you say - double standards.

     

    About SuperData "working with companies" - no reason to doubt them, they say so. There are a lot of small indies out there however. And as a general rule major companies do not give out data. .Occasional press releases; investor reports; conference calls with the big analyst firms who often push for more data; and sometime analysts get private presentations. This is how corporate firms operate. Could Zenimax have given SuperData - and only SuperData because no other firm has said anything - the arcane scrolls of lore? 

    The data is coming from some "Raptr like" souce or sources; maybe several apps. It may be accurate - but it might not be and it certainly shouldn't be taken as gospel. Which is what people need to remember before taking this type of data and praising or hating a game.

    Should Zenimax comment on it? I don't see why they should. Yes NCSoft corrected the GW2 China report a few weeks back because allowed to go unchecked that could have "created a false market in NCSoft shares". Zenimax are a private company, they don't need to. 

  • zwei2zwei2 Member Posts: 361
    Originally posted by Scot
    Originally posted by zwei2
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by zwei2

    Anyway, if ESO does follow up with a formal PR reply that the sub holds water, it does make it more credible and useful for discussion. Then again, there will be posters proclaiming "ZENIMAX IS FAKING NUMBERS!!! THE PROFIT IS FAKE!!!!!" LoL

    Zenimax are not making any numbers up; these are not Zenimax numbers.

     

    How the number has been created:

    • Take the Raptr number in "month 1" (it may not be Raptr, it could be several tracking apps added together).
    • multiply by some factor because not all PC users use e.g. Raptr. So if 50% "use" Raptr multiply by 2;
    • Track those users - get the computer to establish:
    • Using Raptr in first month = purchase;
    • Still using Raptr a month later = subscriber;
    • New user in month 2 = new sale
    • And so on.
    • And if you want to estimate income - multiply subs by $15 or whatever.
    And that is basically all there is to it.
     
    No one expects Zenimax to comment on Raptr or XFire reports so why should they comment on this data.

     

    That is the gist of the problem here; the information is provided by a third party. The company may be supported by Zenimax, but it is still not first hand info.

     

    That is why I am suggesting that if Zenimax is to follow up with a more formal announcement, whether to support or denounce the numbers, then posters will be able to see whether the sub numbers is true or not. Which, in this case, most probably never to be announced.

    A fair point but answer me this. Wildstar had no official figures, yet we saw threads on their forum saying how great the sales looked on the basis of some vague quotes about how well the game was doing. When Zenimax released no figures we had threads on here telling us that it was a conspiracy and Zenimax was hiding it to fool us.

    Forgive me then for seeing a double standard and wondering why some posters on here (not saying yourself) have just spewed bile on TESO in every way they possibly can from week one.

    No doubt this year we will get another of these stats companies telling us that F2P is now the major player in the MMO market. No doubt some of the same posters on here who told us not to trust the TESO figures will be telling us telling us to trust those figures. Another double standard, this time only accepting data which favours F2P. 

    I do not really have an absolute answer to your question, short of a conspiracy theory. Relatively speaking, it is just human nature to voice out opinions and support what one believes. Some people do prefer to voice out in a more professional, pragmatic way.

     

    Like what I had said one post before you, in an indirect way, unless Zenimax endorses the number, it can never be 100% true. That does not means I need to go around telling the world "THESE NUMBERS ARE FAKE!!!!! MY NUMBERS ARE THE ONLY TRUE ONE!!!!! BOW TO ME, YOU FOOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" Rather, by offering a sensible solution (which, btw, can never, ever happen, no way), proposing that Zenimax supports these numbers. It does raise the credibility, unless Zenimax says the exact sub number, then it is right out of the head honcho's mouth. But I am sure there will still be posters contesting the numbers.

     

    ESO still has a long way to go from here. It is true that anything is possible from now on, from F2P conversion, or perhaps change hands. And yes, I do wish that the game could have F2P integrated in, so I can play ESO at my casual pace. Do I go around every thread wishing that the game will go F2P immediately? I do not need to. In fact, I am pleasantly surprised that ESO has a steady following that support P2P. I may not buy the game, but I can still encourage the game to reach for better goals. However, if I do see signs that ESO is starting to support F2P, I will definately access the situation critically, and voice my opinions. Unfortunately, no matter how polite and well versed, though possibily harsh words, fanatics will lump such conversation with haters "I WILL NOT EVEN TOUCH THIS GAME IF IT GOES F2P!!!! IT"S A SCAM!!!! QQQQQQQQQ!!!!!!!!"

     

    However, misinterpration of numbers and figures will be shot down mercilessly when proven to be false. I can still remember that 2.5 millions players per week fiasco...

    The possibility of the universe collapsing into a singularity is higher than the birth of a perfect MMORPG.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by Scot 
    When Zenimax released no figures we had threads on here telling us that it was a conspiracy and Zenimax was hiding it to fool us.

     

     

    I doubt we'll see numbers simply because the gaming consumer looks at MMO numbers and standalone game numbers very differently, and to a certain degree it's reasonably so. The reason a company will give out numbers for a game like Skyrim is because they never have to give out numbers the next month. If a standalone game sells 800k copies the first month and only 100k copies the next month, that's business as usual. It's great for PR because for a standalone game, the numbers can only go up. Sell another 100k over the next couple months and the headline is "Over a million copies sold!"

    If an MMO sells 800k copies the first month and 400k copies the next month, you know EXACTLY what the blogs and forum posts are going to say. This is often because of a complete lack of understanding of the numbers they are reading and zero actual information on churn or retention. It's possible (but not probable) that the game now has 1.2 million subs. It's likely the game now has 600k-800k subs. However, the immediate leap that most MMO gamers infatuated with these numbers will make is that the game is tanking. 

    So, don't hold your breath for an MMO to release numbers to people who don't understand them and may read them the wrong way, especially when those people are the target market for their product or service. 

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by gervaise1

    About SuperData "working with companies" - no reason to doubt them, they say so. There are a lot of small indies out there however. And as a general rule major companies do not give out data. .Occasional press releases; investor reports; conference calls with the big analyst firms who often push for more data; and sometime analysts get private presentations. This is how corporate firms operate. Could Zenimax have given SuperData - and only SuperData because no other firm has said anything - the arcane scrolls of lore? 

    The data is coming from some "Raptr like" souce or sources; maybe several apps. It may be accurate - but it might not be and it certainly shouldn't be taken as gospel. Which is what people need to remember before taking this type of data and praising or hating a game.

     

    Where are we getting this Raptr thing you're all running with? Why do you doubt Zenimax gave them the numbers? Is the argument now that SuperData is lying when they say they they get their numbers "directly from publishers and developers, totaling 50+ publishers and 450+ game titles"?

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

This discussion has been closed.