TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science.
Of course it's under performing. It's a console franchise that has only been released on PC so far. Like if GTA decided to release only on PC, it would be under performing.
I disagree. Look at how popular Skyrim is on steam and the vibrant mod community both on Nexus and Steam and certain other adult places. People still clock hours on Skyrim on the PC platform. I wouldn't go as far as calling it a console franchise tbh.
Not to mention that my first ever deep story-based 3D Single-Player RPG was Morrowind and that on a PC.
I remember when some Chinese marketing website had listed GW2 as having some ridiculously high number of log-ins per day and the GW2 fans took it as gospel and defended it tooth and nail........That is, until it was disproven and taken offline.
Why do we continue to post unverified information based on limited and very selective data by people with no real access to to the actual facts? Then defend it as if it was the given truth?
Last time someone posted such info on ESO it was an estimate of 800K, now it's 1.2M? I find it unlikely it grew that much in the past few months.
That was a failed translation which NCsoft had to correct for the shake of stake holders.
"all revenue figures are based on spendign data we collect from developers, publishers and payment service providers..."
Forum math keeps coming up with that 1.2 number. Superdata gave the 800k number.
Actually most of you are way off base. You can wax rhapsodic all you want to about a new MMO not performing at the level you feel it should be the fact is very clear with MMO's. The more time they have to mature the better they get. Do you think a company like Bethesda is just winging this with no plan? Seriously? A developer with their track record cannot be given the time to implement their vision without the minority in the genre crying 'Fail, Fail'
That is sad indeed the state the community has come to. I sub to this game and I love it. For those who say it is just a WOW like themepark? I just have no words for you.
I wander off and do my own thing. I explore,craft,fish, run public dungeons, find runes. They even have dynamic events like Rifts that pop up in the world. This IS an Elder Scrolls game AND it is an MMO. is it sandbox? No. Is it ripe to just explore? Yes. Can you play it on rails and enjoy a more themepark ride with a voice cast like Kate Beckinsale and John Cleese? Yes.
Can you just ignore the store and wander the world making your way through it on your own? Yes.
Does the developer have a laundry list of things they are working on to add to the game? Yes.
When EQ1 came out in 99 it had about 225,000 subs or so? that number climbed past 430,000 within 2 years.
An MMO done right should be given time to mature and grow and evolve. Not be 1000 things right out of the gate. I paid $15 US for my copy and I have enjoyed this game more than any MMO in a long time. Crafting Matters. It 'feels' like a fantasy world ripe with mystery and is.
The quests if you bother to find and do them (off the rails) are amazing and unique. I just dabble in the main quest line. Like I do all Elder Scroll games. I do my own thing. If you think you cannot do that? You have been doing it wrong.
Would love to see how you wander far off high level land upon character creation. Because that's what elder scrolls is. Those guys added levels to a game without levels and they put you on carrot on a stick ride for your sub with vet ranks which they increased after launch, but have now promised to remove and change with other system which IMO is very similar but only time will tell.
I don't buy my games based on actors that voiced them nor I keep renting them just to hear those said actors. If i want to hear a particular actor I watch a movie with them, a movie that i own and dont have to rent
Look ... the list of Do's and Dont's for TESO is from here to the Sun. Some people (like yourself) love the game immensely and some like myself hate ZOS for everything they did to the game and I only pray that there is another Elder Scrolls game that is NOT TESO and this time has decent Co-Op.
People like @bcbully who try to sell the game for something that it isn't though are kind of annoying. They are basically not saying much more than those guys you meet on public boards speaking in percents but we all know where those percents came from
Although I must applaud him for changing one unreliable source with another
Bravo.
P.S: What the hell is Counter-Strike Online. I thought Global Offensive is the latest installment <o>
Revenues based on approximate share of the worldwide market ...
revenue data based on the spending data we collect from developers, publishers and payment service providers totalling 37 million unique paying gamers across digital platforms. A guess brought to you by SuperData.
And in case anyone is under any illusion that this data is coming from the likes of EA, Activision etc. the release of such information would be illegal in the period running up to their results announcement.
Make of the data what you will but don't treat this as "definitive" or "strong evidence" one way or another. A percentage of those "37M" have triggered a TESO flag. And that has been factored up to give this value.
It's how all projections work: you take sample data and project. Businesses and governments make decisions every day based on similar data.
There's this science you may have heard of behind all of this. It's called statistics.
Oh I have the background. What bit of statistics would you like to discuss. Non-parametric Bayesian sampling based on a zero sample size perhaps? Or sampling theory in general. Or ....?
This is simpler. They have "some data" about "37M" people. They have factored it up by x2 or x10 or x100 to "represent" the worldwide gaming population. Factored it for "assumed playing habits" and factored it some more for assumed average spend per transaction. Unless you believe they "have access" to what you are spending on your credit / debit / paypal etc. account. No - didn't think so.
Now nothing wrong with making a guess. The statistical methodology I mention above starts with a guess, then it observes and then it refines. Past guesses though from SuperData though .... have looked wide of the mark.
And using WoW data to guesstimate subs - according to the article the WoW income is for just for in-game spending not subs; not box sales. Hmm.
Given that companies don't report very much information, how are you getting the "mark" that you are saying that SuperData shoots wide of?
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Actually most of you are way off base. You can wax rhapsodic all you want to about a new MMO not performing at the level you feel it should be the fact is very clear with MMO's. The more time they have to mature the better they get. Do you think a company like Bethesda is just winging this with no plan? Seriously? A developer with their track record cannot be given the time to implement their vision without the minority in the genre crying 'Fail, Fail'
That is sad indeed the state the community has come to. I sub to this game and I love it. For those who say it is just a WOW like themepark? I just have no words for you.
I wander off and do my own thing. I explore,craft,fish, run public dungeons, find runes. They even have dynamic events like Rifts that pop up in the world. This IS an Elder Scrolls game AND it is an MMO. is it sandbox? No. Is it ripe to just explore? Yes. Can you play it on rails and enjoy a more themepark ride with a voice cast like Kate Beckinsale and John Cleese? Yes.
Can you just ignore the store and wander the world making your way through it on your own? Yes.
Does the developer have a laundry list of things they are working on to add to the game? Yes.
When EQ1 came out in 99 it had about 225,000 subs or so? that number climbed past 430,000 within 2 years.
An MMO done right should be given time to mature and grow and evolve. Not be 1000 things right out of the gate. I paid $15 US for my copy and I have enjoyed this game more than any MMO in a long time. Crafting Matters. It 'feels' like a fantasy world ripe with mystery and is.
The quests if you bother to find and do them (off the rails) are amazing and unique. I just dabble in the main quest line. Like I do all Elder Scroll games. I do my own thing. If you think you cannot do that? You have been doing it wrong.
Would love to see how you wander far off high level land upon character creation. Because that's what elder scrolls is. Those guys added levels to a game without levels and they put you on carrot on a stick ride for your sub with vet ranks which they increased after launch, but have now promised to remove and change with other system which IMO is very similar but only time will tell.
I don't buy my games based on actors that voiced them nor I keep renting them just to hear those said actors. If i want to hear a particular actor I watch a movie with them, a movie that i own and dont have to rent
Look ... the list of Do's and Dont's for TESO is from here to the Sun. Some people (like yourself) love the game immensely and some like myself hate ZOS for everything they did to the game and I only pray that there is another Elder Scrolls game that is NOT TESO and this time has decent Co-Op.
People like @bcbully who try to sell the game for something that it isn't though are kind of annoying. They are basically not saying much more than those guys you meet on public boards speaking in percents but we all know where those percents came from
Although I must applaud him for changing one unreliable source with another
Bravo.
P.S: What the hell is Counter-Strike Online. I thought Global Offensive is the latest installment
I resubbed about 2 months ago, and frankly Im not disappointed. Ive found plenty of people to group with on my low level alts, and the starter areas seem pretty active. All 5 of my guild slots are filled and theyve been kicking inactives to make room for people joining. Theres plenty of action in Cyrodiil, and its some of the most fun pvp Ive had since DAoC. Im not going to sit here and throw out numbers, but I have to question if you are actually in the game playing to throw out all these "facts". I think people like the fact theres no cash shop as well, I know I do. On top of that theres a lot of excitement about 1.5, and people are returining for the champion system as well from what Ive been seeing in my various guilds chats.
I think perhaps its been a while since you've played it, and youre going off your impression from half a year ago.
Actually most of you are way off base. You can wax rhapsodic all you want to about a new MMO not performing at the level you feel it should be the fact is very clear with MMO's. The more time they have to mature the better they get. Do you think a company like Bethesda is just winging this with no plan? Seriously? A developer with their track record cannot be given the time to implement their vision without the minority in the genre crying 'Fail, Fail'
That is sad indeed the state the community has come to. I sub to this game and I love it. For those who say it is just a WOW like themepark? I just have no words for you.
I wander off and do my own thing. I explore,craft,fish, run public dungeons, find runes. They even have dynamic events like Rifts that pop up in the world. This IS an Elder Scrolls game AND it is an MMO. is it sandbox? No. Is it ripe to just explore? Yes. Can you play it on rails and enjoy a more themepark ride with a voice cast like Kate Beckinsale and John Cleese? Yes.
Can you just ignore the store and wander the world making your way through it on your own? Yes.
Does the developer have a laundry list of things they are working on to add to the game? Yes.
When EQ1 came out in 99 it had about 225,000 subs or so? that number climbed past 430,000 within 2 years.
An MMO done right should be given time to mature and grow and evolve. Not be 1000 things right out of the gate. I paid $15 US for my copy and I have enjoyed this game more than any MMO in a long time. Crafting Matters. It 'feels' like a fantasy world ripe with mystery and is.
The quests if you bother to find and do them (off the rails) are amazing and unique. I just dabble in the main quest line. Like I do all Elder Scroll games. I do my own thing. If you think you cannot do that? You have been doing it wrong.
Would love to see how you wander far off high level land upon character creation. Because that's what elder scrolls is. Those guys added levels to a game without levels and they put you on carrot on a stick ride for your sub with vet ranks which they increased after launch, but have now promised to remove and change with other system which IMO is very similar but only time will tell.
I don't buy my games based on actors that voiced them nor I keep renting them just to hear those said actors. If i want to hear a particular actor I watch a movie with them, a movie that i own and dont have to rent
Look ... the list of Do's and Dont's for TESO is from here to the Sun. Some people (like yourself) love the game immensely and some like myself hate ZOS for everything they did to the game and I only pray that there is another Elder Scrolls game that is NOT TESO and this time has decent Co-Op.
People like @bcbully who try to sell the game for something that it isn't though are kind of annoying. They are basically not saying much more than those guys you meet on public boards speaking in percents but we all know where those percents came from
Although I must applaud him for changing one unreliable source with another
Bravo.
P.S: What the hell is Counter-Strike Online. I thought Global Offensive is the latest installment
Oh, so that's why you're so bitter towards the game, it wasn't what you wanted. Just move on pal
They don't need statistics. They don't like something, therefore everyone else doesn't like it, and therefore it's a failure.
Science!
I like your sarcasm, but you couldn't be more wrong.
TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science.
If you find it fun, play it, but don't make it out something that it isn't.
Your game doesn't need to have WoW's success to be fun. I hate minecraft .. but i acknowledge the fact that its a worldwide success with millions of copies sold around the globe.
If you are looking for something to justify the 15$/mo subscription fee, don't come up with false numbers
So your definition of "Success" is WoW. So there are no other games on the market which are successful. Well, I guess people should just stop making MMOs and subscribe to WoW instead.
Even if they had a half million subscribers, that'd be a wildly successful game. You seem to think that developers and publishers are banking on having 2, 3, 5 million subscribers. That's simply not the case. You can't bank on even a million subscribers these days, and you're naive if you think that their expectations were to have more than that.
You need to re-read my post. I did not say that success means that a game should have ~5 (?) million players. What I said is that your game of choice does not need to have WoW's success to find it pleasurable. Also I gave an example of successful game with Minecraft. I don't even know how you deducted WoW out of this. I'm pretty sure the only game that can beat WoW in terms of profit is WoW for plethora of reasons.
What is a well known fact is that every company's PR team brags about sales, retention rates, subscriptions, whatever kind of numbers to convince people that a certain product is worth it (in this case the monthly fee) continuously. However this is not the case of Bethesda with this game. The only thing they bragged about was the 5 million beta registrations.
And certain brainwashed people come here trying to do Bethesda's job. Spreading numbers in hopes that people would believe that TESO is not an underperforming game.
Let me tell you this ... if it isn't coming from an official source its nothing but a wishful thinking (E.g. vaporware). I'm sorry but vaporware doesn't justify a subscription which this game doesn't deserve.
6 months in, what have they done? Promises ... nothing but promises. 90$ from every active player on top of 60$ box price. Do you think the content they've produced is worth few millions of dollars?
And even if this number is true (which i doubt), the amount of cash they made for 6 months in this year release with so much hype is very, very underperforming. Some games make that in couple of weeks you know
I don't need to re-read your last post. I know what you said, and I quote, "TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science." Here's the cold, hard facts, though. TESO is the 3rd MMORPG on the list. This means that it's generated the 3rd most revenues of any MMORPG in the last 6 months. So I jumped to the conclusion that your definition of success must be WoW, otherwise, what is it? Lineage 1? Well it's not far off those revenues, so it can't be that. So if I am misinterpreting your definition of success, then I'm sorry, but you're asserting that the game is underperforming, so....., compared to what exactly?
Then you go on to compare this with Minecraft. So, yes, let's disregard one anomalous game for another which is even more of an anomaly!! Great, logical reasoning!!! Why not use something like SWTOR? That's much more in the same vein and it's much more typical of how a AAA game might desire their game to go, even though many viewed it as a failure.
Finally, in order to solidify your credibility you decided to go ahead and misuse the term vaporware twice, in two different ways, in the same paragraph. That's actually pretty impressive. First you're saying that unless information is from an official source it's vaporware? Then you go on to elude to TESO as being vaporware, but it's actually the complete opposite. It's not vaporware at all. It's actually quite attainable at the moment. You can get your hands on it at most retail locations. Then you decide to conclude your argument by generalizing about games in general, saying that "some games make that in a couple weeks" which is true, but you're also talking about a very specific target market (MMORPGs) which is already a frangmented subsection of the gaming market. TESO was not built to be game that would appeal to the masses. It's not GTA ESO.
I remember when some Chinese marketing website had listed GW2 as having some ridiculously high number of log-ins per day and the GW2 fans took it as gospel and defended it tooth and nail........That is, until it was disproven and taken offline.
Why do we continue to post unverified information based on limited and very selective data by people with no real access to to the actual facts? Then defend it as if it was the given truth?
1. Superdata is hardly "some Chinese marketing website"
2. Do you even know who they are and where they get their data or are you basing your skepticism off some reddit comment Here, this should at least give you an idea about who they are and what companies they work with: http://www.superdataresearch.com/about/
3. I don't see anyone "defending it as if it was the given truth" - it is a statistical projection and as such, just guesswork... mind you, it's guesswork the industry is willing to pay for - not the summary you or I can see but the real in-depth reports that are bought by Microsoft, Activision and others. But I do see a lot of people attacking it as if it couldn't be right based on their "feelings"...lol
Who to believe? A company that specializes in this type of analysis, the usual forum suspects or the guy with a bone to pick because he didn't get Skyrim Online?
"Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”
― Umberto Eco
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” ― CD PROJEKT RED
TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science.
Of course it's under performing. It's a console franchise that has only been released on PC so far. Like if GTA decided to release only on PC, it would be under performing.
I disagree. Look at how popular Skyrim is on steam and the vibrant mod community both on Nexus and Steam and certain other adult places. People still clock hours on Skyrim on the PC platform. I wouldn't go as far as calling it a console franchise tbh.
Not to mention that my first ever deep story-based 3D Single-Player RPG was Morrowind and that on a PC.
As of 12/2013 Skyrim PC sales come in at 14% of total sales (link). 80%+ sales on consoles alone. I'm guessing Oblivion sold more copies on console too.
Both those games felt like console ports (unmodded).
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
If I were to do stats on a game I would only compare it to like games. So my list would be MMO's only like:
WOW
LotRO
NW
L1
L2
ESO
GW2
STO
EQ
AoC
RIFT
Now if I wanted certain games to rank high on my list I would pick and choose the games on the list no matter what types of games they were. That way I could adjust the parameters more easily to get the results I want. It would be nice if they stated exactly what they were counting also.
I won't comment on a posted list about a game that's not shown on the list, only mentioned.
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Always good to see MMO's making some money... because it means the genre will continue.
Did I want to like ESO? Yes.
Was I able to enjoy the game? No. I was constantly locked out of bugged quests.
Will I return? Most likely yes. I like the law mechanics they're planning on introducing. But since I don't have a timeline, I'm not investing in them.
To all the haters.. why hate? It makes money. SWTOR makes money. This just means the community is there. If money is there, people will make more MMO's for us to devour. Eventually one of them will snag each of your attentions. It's all about different playstyles/tastes.
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
+1
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Given that companies don't report very much information, how are you getting the "mark" that you are saying that SuperData shoots wide of?
If you go back and look at the data they have been producing then - if they are "accurate" - then we it would be reasonable for them to have picked up e.g. WoW's steep decline in subs earlier in the year; Zynga's profit warning and so forth; the SWTOR data a couple of years ago that didn't hold up when EA actually released results. Others examples as well - LoL article that mmorpg.com did had some discussion on it.
Little changes - within an expected margin of error; big changes missed: imply a much bigger margin of error.
Would the people embracing the data still do so if the margin of error was - lets say 50% since it is getting those 37M hits from somewhere . For with that margin of error one could argue that TESO was not doing very well at all. Now my answer would be the same: its a fuzzy guess, be sceptical, don't treat it as gospel.
Edit: which is why SWTORs fans don't have to worry - since taken at face value this data suggests that SWTOR income is down 15% in the last year and 40% since it went f2p. Say that on the SWTOR forums !
They don't need statistics. They don't like something, therefore everyone else doesn't like it, and therefore it's a failure.
Science!
I like your sarcasm, but you couldn't be more wrong.
TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science.
If you find it fun, play it, but don't make it out something that it isn't.
Your game doesn't need to have WoW's success to be fun. I hate minecraft .. but i acknowledge the fact that its a worldwide success with millions of copies sold around the globe.
If you are looking for something to justify the 15$/mo subscription fee, don't come up with false numbers
So your definition of "Success" is WoW. So there are no other games on the market which are successful. Well, I guess people should just stop making MMOs and subscribe to WoW instead.
Even if they had a half million subscribers, that'd be a wildly successful game. You seem to think that developers and publishers are banking on having 2, 3, 5 million subscribers. That's simply not the case. You can't bank on even a million subscribers these days, and you're naive if you think that their expectations were to have more than that.
You need to re-read my post. I did not say that success means that a game should have ~5 (?) million players. What I said is that your game of choice does not need to have WoW's success to find it pleasurable. Also I gave an example of successful game with Minecraft. I don't even know how you deducted WoW out of this. I'm pretty sure the only game that can beat WoW in terms of profit is WoW for plethora of reasons.
What is a well known fact is that every company's PR team brags about sales, retention rates, subscriptions, whatever kind of numbers to convince people that a certain product is worth it (in this case the monthly fee) continuously. However this is not the case of Bethesda with this game. The only thing they bragged about was the 5 million beta registrations.
And certain brainwashed people come here trying to do Bethesda's job. Spreading numbers in hopes that people would believe that TESO is not an underperforming game.
Let me tell you this ... if it isn't coming from an official source its nothing but a wishful thinking (E.g. vaporware). I'm sorry but vaporware doesn't justify a subscription which this game doesn't deserve.
6 months in, what have they done? Promises ... nothing but promises. 90$ from every active player on top of 60$ box price. Do you think the content they've produced is worth few millions of dollars?
And even if this number is true (which i doubt), the amount of cash they made for 6 months in this year release with so much hype is very, very underperforming. Some games make that in couple of weeks you know
Buddy putting all games aside, you don't know shit.
#1 thinking a privately owned business is going to behave in the same manner that a public owned one is, is just completely asinine.
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
This is the real point imho for every product, not only games. If we can find the cost and the total expenses of the game, then we can have an idea if the 111m are ok or not.
All Time Favorites: EQ1, WoW, EvE, GW1 Playing Now: WoW, ESO, GW2
Where is ZM's official announcement showing ESO closing in on the top 10?
You, me, and most everyone else here know we will not see anything official from ZOS. Until then these 3rd party guesstimated statistics are only good for wiping one's arse with. Still, even if it was true I have a feeling their development cost them more than $111 million. So for ZOS's sake, I hope those numbers are a lot higher than what the OP is claiming.
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
That's true but rather simplistic as a predictor of continuing health simply because the most important factor is unknown and will remain unknown: what were/are the company's expectations for return on investment over what period of time? For all we know, PC sales is chump change to them in the grand scheme of things if their true focus is releasing a feature-rich, bug-free console version either as a sub or B2P game.
That all may be of interest to potential investors... if it wasn't for the fact that they are a privately held company not looking to change that any time soon. Or it might be of interest to current players wanting to know what the future of the game holds for them.
But if you're in the second group, many other things beside revenues would be far more revealing: How populated does the game seem? Is new content development and updates on a steady course or declining in frequency? Going by these two the game seems healthy.
So, as the guy from the double rainbow video once said, "what does it mean?" Not much by itself. It's just a rough ranking of popularity of sorts but not even just that since what is being measured is revenue and as such spending $15 a month would make a game seem 3 times as popular as one where you only spend $5 and only 1/3 as popular as one where the average is $45 all else being equal.
So one thing you can say is that, given the sub cost of WOW and ESO being roughly equal, ESO currently seems to be about 1/7th as popular as WOW...whatever that means
"Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”
― Umberto Eco
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” ― CD PROJEKT RED
I remember when some Chinese marketing website had listed GW2 as having some ridiculously high number of log-ins per day and the GW2 fans took it as gospel and defended it tooth and nail........That is, until it was disproven and taken offline.
Why do we continue to post unverified information based on limited and very selective data by people with no real access to to the actual facts? Then defend it as if it was the given truth?
1. Superdata is hardly "some Chinese marketing website"
2. Do you even know who they are and where they get their data or are you basing your skepticism off some reddit comment Here, this should at least give you an idea about who they are and what companies they work with: http://www.superdataresearch.com/about/
3. I don't see anyone "defending it as if it was the given truth" - it is a statistical projection and as such, just guesswork... mind you, it's guesswork the industry is willing to pay for - not the summary you or I can see but the real in-depth reports that are bought by Microsoft, Activision and others. But I do see a lot of people attacking it as if it couldn't be right based on their "feelings"...lol
Who to believe? A company that specializes in this type of analysis, the usual forum suspects or the guy with a bone to pick because he didn't get Skyrim Online?
So where is this Superdata that shows 1.2 Mil? Oh wait....They didn't. Even the OP admitted it was forum math?
Keep spinning your BS.......and attach Ad-homs to it for added effect. It always works well.
PS. Questioning unverifiable data has little to do with "Skyrim Online" which is also something you assumed I wanted since I love Skyrim......Even though I don't really think an online MMO version would work well, but you probably already knew that about me right?
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
This is the real point imho for every product, not only games. If we can find the cost and the total expenses of the game, then we can have an idea if the 111m are ok or not.
Exactly this. Revenue is an utterly meaningless indicator of the health of any product or firm without knowing if it generates profit.
You could have revenue of $1bn but if your expenses are $1.1bn your company is in trouble.
Where is ZM's official announcement showing ESO closing in on the top 10?
You, me, and most everyone else here know we will not see anything official from ZOS. Until then these 3rd party guesstimated statistics are only good for wiping one's arse with. Still, even if it was true I have a feeling their development cost them more than $111 million. So for ZOS's sake, I hope those numbers are a lot higher than what the OP is claiming.
If I gave you 2$ and you gave me back 1$ every 6 months for 2 years, I would consider you a cash cow.
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
+1
For some of the games mentioned in that list, the data is publicly available, WoW in particular, along with EA etc, do release annual and quarterly figures etc, there isn't really much guess work involved, except perhaps when 'guesstimates' are made on future performance, the problem really is when they have to make 'guesstimates' on the current revenue a game makes, not even net profit, but just overall revenue, when they have no access to official figures.
In relation to ESO unless Superdata has somehow acquired a magical crystal ball, or perhaps, hacked into Zenimax's accounts to find out, then 'guesstimates' is probably all they are able to provide, more than likely they are using 'comparable' sources where information is available from published accounts, however, judging one companies performance based on their peers is hardly going to be all that accurate, even as a generalisation, it just means that the data provided is a 'guesstimate' accuracy unknown but any relation to reality will most likely be entirely accidental.
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I disagree. Look at how popular Skyrim is on steam and the vibrant mod community both on Nexus and Steam and certain other adult places. People still clock hours on Skyrim on the PC platform. I wouldn't go as far as calling it a console franchise tbh.
Not to mention that my first ever deep story-based 3D Single-Player RPG was Morrowind and that on a PC.
That was a failed translation which NCsoft had to correct for the shake of stake holders.
"all revenue figures are based on spendign data we collect from developers, publishers and payment service providers..."
Forum math keeps coming up with that 1.2 number. Superdata gave the 800k number.
Would love to see how you wander far off high level land upon character creation. Because that's what elder scrolls is. Those guys added levels to a game without levels and they put you on carrot on a stick ride for your sub with vet ranks which they increased after launch, but have now promised to remove and change with other system which IMO is very similar but only time will tell.
I don't buy my games based on actors that voiced them nor I keep renting them just to hear those said actors. If i want to hear a particular actor I watch a movie with them, a movie that i own and dont have to rent
Look ... the list of Do's and Dont's for TESO is from here to the Sun. Some people (like yourself) love the game immensely and some like myself hate ZOS for everything they did to the game and I only pray that there is another Elder Scrolls game that is NOT TESO and this time has decent Co-Op.
People like @bcbully who try to sell the game for something that it isn't though are kind of annoying. They are basically not saying much more than those guys you meet on public boards speaking in percents but we all know where those percents came from
Although I must applaud him for changing one unreliable source with another
Bravo.
P.S: What the hell is Counter-Strike Online. I thought Global Offensive is the latest installment <o>
Given that companies don't report very much information, how are you getting the "mark" that you are saying that SuperData shoots wide of?
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I resubbed about 2 months ago, and frankly Im not disappointed. Ive found plenty of people to group with on my low level alts, and the starter areas seem pretty active. All 5 of my guild slots are filled and theyve been kicking inactives to make room for people joining. Theres plenty of action in Cyrodiil, and its some of the most fun pvp Ive had since DAoC. Im not going to sit here and throw out numbers, but I have to question if you are actually in the game playing to throw out all these "facts". I think people like the fact theres no cash shop as well, I know I do. On top of that theres a lot of excitement about 1.5, and people are returining for the champion system as well from what Ive been seeing in my various guilds chats.
I think perhaps its been a while since you've played it, and youre going off your impression from half a year ago.
Oh, so that's why you're so bitter towards the game, it wasn't what you wanted. Just move on pal
I don't need to re-read your last post. I know what you said, and I quote, "TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science." Here's the cold, hard facts, though. TESO is the 3rd MMORPG on the list. This means that it's generated the 3rd most revenues of any MMORPG in the last 6 months. So I jumped to the conclusion that your definition of success must be WoW, otherwise, what is it? Lineage 1? Well it's not far off those revenues, so it can't be that. So if I am misinterpreting your definition of success, then I'm sorry, but you're asserting that the game is underperforming, so....., compared to what exactly?
Then you go on to compare this with Minecraft. So, yes, let's disregard one anomalous game for another which is even more of an anomaly!! Great, logical reasoning!!! Why not use something like SWTOR? That's much more in the same vein and it's much more typical of how a AAA game might desire their game to go, even though many viewed it as a failure.
Finally, in order to solidify your credibility you decided to go ahead and misuse the term vaporware twice, in two different ways, in the same paragraph. That's actually pretty impressive. First you're saying that unless information is from an official source it's vaporware? Then you go on to elude to TESO as being vaporware, but it's actually the complete opposite. It's not vaporware at all. It's actually quite attainable at the moment. You can get your hands on it at most retail locations. Then you decide to conclude your argument by generalizing about games in general, saying that "some games make that in a couple weeks" which is true, but you're also talking about a very specific target market (MMORPGs) which is already a frangmented subsection of the gaming market. TESO was not built to be game that would appeal to the masses. It's not GTA ESO.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
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Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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1. Superdata is hardly "some Chinese marketing website"
2. Do you even know who they are and where they get their data or are you basing your skepticism off some reddit comment Here, this should at least give you an idea about who they are and what companies they work with: http://www.superdataresearch.com/about/
3. I don't see anyone "defending it as if it was the given truth" - it is a statistical projection and as such, just guesswork... mind you, it's guesswork the industry is willing to pay for - not the summary you or I can see but the real in-depth reports that are bought by Microsoft, Activision and others. But I do see a lot of people attacking it as if it couldn't be right based on their "feelings"...lol
Who to believe? A company that specializes in this type of analysis, the usual forum suspects or the guy with a bone to pick because he didn't get Skyrim Online?
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
As of 12/2013 Skyrim PC sales come in at 14% of total sales (link). 80%+ sales on consoles alone. I'm guessing Oblivion sold more copies on console too.
Both those games felt like console ports (unmodded).
It's all about the console sales for ESO.
People are arguing whether the numbers are fake, guesses, real, imaginary,etc.
For a second I would like to go with the thought that they are close to actual numbers. I have no idea, but just for arguments sake. If this is the case, then my main question would be 'How much is profit?' A company can have 3 gazillion in revenue and have 1.50 in profit. Doesn't spell good news.
Without putting the profit into the equation, the actual revenue doesn't really paint a good picture of health for the product.
I self identify as a monkey.
If I were to do stats on a game I would only compare it to like games. So my list would be MMO's only like:
WOW
LotRO
NW
L1
L2
ESO
GW2
STO
EQ
AoC
RIFT
Now if I wanted certain games to rank high on my list I would pick and choose the games on the list no matter what types of games they were. That way I could adjust the parameters more easily to get the results I want. It would be nice if they stated exactly what they were counting also.
I won't comment on a posted list about a game that's not shown on the list, only mentioned.
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Always good to see MMO's making some money... because it means the genre will continue.
Did I want to like ESO? Yes.
Was I able to enjoy the game? No. I was constantly locked out of bugged quests.
Will I return? Most likely yes. I like the law mechanics they're planning on introducing. But since I don't have a timeline, I'm not investing in them.
To all the haters.. why hate? It makes money. SWTOR makes money. This just means the community is there. If money is there, people will make more MMO's for us to devour. Eventually one of them will snag each of your attentions. It's all about different playstyles/tastes.
+1
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
If you go back and look at the data they have been producing then - if they are "accurate" - then we it would be reasonable for them to have picked up e.g. WoW's steep decline in subs earlier in the year; Zynga's profit warning and so forth; the SWTOR data a couple of years ago that didn't hold up when EA actually released results. Others examples as well - LoL article that mmorpg.com did had some discussion on it.
Little changes - within an expected margin of error; big changes missed: imply a much bigger margin of error.
Would the people embracing the data still do so if the margin of error was - lets say 50% since it is getting those 37M hits from somewhere
. For with that margin of error one could argue that TESO was not doing very well at all. Now my answer would be the same: its a fuzzy guess, be sceptical, don't treat it as gospel.
Edit: which is why SWTORs fans don't have to worry - since taken at face value this data suggests that SWTOR income is down 15% in the last year and 40% since it went f2p. Say that on the SWTOR forums !
Buddy putting all games aside, you don't know shit.
#1 thinking a privately owned business is going to behave in the same manner that a public owned one is, is just completely asinine.
So just keep on talking out your ass
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
This is the real point imho for every product, not only games. If we can find the cost and the total expenses of the game, then we can have an idea if the 111m are ok or not.
All Time Favorites: EQ1, WoW, EvE, GW1
Playing Now: WoW, ESO, GW2
You, me, and most everyone else here know we will not see anything official from ZOS. Until then these 3rd party guesstimated statistics are only good for wiping one's arse with. Still, even if it was true I have a feeling their development cost them more than $111 million. So for ZOS's sake, I hope those numbers are a lot higher than what the OP is claiming.
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor
That's true but rather simplistic as a predictor of continuing health simply because the most important factor is unknown and will remain unknown: what were/are the company's expectations for return on investment over what period of time? For all we know, PC sales is chump change to them in the grand scheme of things if their true focus is releasing a feature-rich, bug-free console version either as a sub or B2P game.
That all may be of interest to potential investors... if it wasn't for the fact that they are a privately held company not looking to change that any time soon. Or it might be of interest to current players wanting to know what the future of the game holds for them.
But if you're in the second group, many other things beside revenues would be far more revealing: How populated does the game seem? Is new content development and updates on a steady course or declining in frequency? Going by these two the game seems healthy.
So, as the guy from the double rainbow video once said, "what does it mean?" Not much by itself. It's just a rough ranking of popularity of sorts but not even just that since what is being measured is revenue and as such spending $15 a month would make a game seem 3 times as popular as one where you only spend $5 and only 1/3 as popular as one where the average is $45 all else being equal.
So one thing you can say is that, given the sub cost of WOW and ESO being roughly equal, ESO currently seems to be about 1/7th as popular as WOW...whatever that means
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
So where is this Superdata that shows 1.2 Mil? Oh wait....They didn't. Even the OP admitted it was forum math?
Keep spinning your BS.......and attach Ad-homs to it for added effect. It always works well.
PS. Questioning unverifiable data has little to do with "Skyrim Online" which is also something you assumed I wanted since I love Skyrim......Even though I don't really think an online MMO version would work well, but you probably already knew that about me right?
Exactly this. Revenue is an utterly meaningless indicator of the health of any product or firm without knowing if it generates profit.
You could have revenue of $1bn but if your expenses are $1.1bn your company is in trouble.
If I gave you 2$ and you gave me back 1$ every 6 months for 2 years, I would consider you a cash cow.
For some of the games mentioned in that list, the data is publicly available, WoW in particular, along with EA etc, do release annual and quarterly figures etc, there isn't really much guess work involved, except perhaps when 'guesstimates' are made on future performance, the problem really is when they have to make 'guesstimates' on the current revenue a game makes, not even net profit, but just overall revenue, when they have no access to official figures.
In relation to ESO unless Superdata has somehow acquired a magical crystal ball, or perhaps, hacked into Zenimax's accounts to find out, then 'guesstimates' is probably all they are able to provide, more than likely they are using 'comparable' sources where information is available from published accounts, however, judging one companies performance based on their peers is hardly going to be all that accurate, even as a generalisation, it just means that the data provided is a 'guesstimate' accuracy unknown but any relation to reality will most likely be entirely accidental.
When I said i had "time", i meant virtual time, i got no RL "time" for you.