Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?

Helleri · July 2015

Searching on google trends I found that virtually everything I could think of relating to what people have been looking for with MMORPG (the genre in general and many top popular games of the past) has been on the declines since 2006-2009.

Now, what this shows strictly is that the number of people searching through google or google subsidiaries (like youtube) and affiliates for topics related to MMORPG has been dropping in recent years by a lot. As has news and articles on the subject (both are searchable through this statistic look up service google provides).

So, I thought...If players are not searching for for MMORPG to play. What are they looking for? Well luckily google trends also has a statistic comparison feature. So, I started cross referencing every genre I could think of that is played online with MMORPG. Things like RTS are relatively stable through out the years and far under searched compared to MMORPG. But, eventually I hit on a statistic comparison I thought was interesting.

Just as MMORPG are reaching the bottom of the interest curve. MOBA have been on the rise. Searching Big MMORPG (as stated above) showed a general fall off in interest from searches in recent years...So, would searching for MOBA and MOBA-like games show a general up trend in interest?

Turns out...yeah. Exactly that seems to be happening. It would appear (just according to google) that interest within the larger MMO realm is steering away from MMORPG and toward MOBA. Now I just used big name examples here as I ran a lot of searches and I don't want to do all the work of saving and uploading those, lol. But it seems clear that since about 2009 MMORPG have been down trending in general interest and almost exactly as that is happening MOBA are begining to uptrend.

But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

And, MOBA (as well as, MOBA-like) games dominate their list.

I admit there is a lot of possibility here. Data and the interpretation of data are pretty far removed things. My interpretation of this data could be way off the mark. And, there could be plenty more data to be looked at that I didn't even think about which may absolutely crush this idea. So, what do you all think about this?

Phry · July 2015

No

thinktank001 · July 2015

Originally posted by Helleri

But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

I would honestly like to ask why do you believe that MMORPGs and MOBAs compete for the same type of player?

Quoting super data is only a bit worse than using wiki as being a factual source.

Helleri · July 2015

Originally posted by thinktank001
Originally posted by Helleri

But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

I would honestly like to ask why do you believe that MMORPGs and MOBAs compete for the same type of player?

Quoting super data is only a bit worse than using wiki as being a factual source.

1) They are both Multiplay Online Games. And, so I think it is reasonable to assume that anything withing the multiplayer online genre is going to be competing for a larger slice within that sphere.

2) Many MMORPG end up like MOBA (after they have had their run and new MMORPG that do what they do better come along). With an MMORPG it takes a lot longer to get to that point. BUt a lot of end-games for them look similar to the main point if playing a MOBA. Just ideally on a larger scale. A MOBA is basically an MMORPG for people who don't like filler and want to start off at the end game. They very much (to me) seem to be two approaches to the same ends.

3) The above are just reasons why I think it's fair to look at them side by side. However, it's not even that they may be in direct competition. Just that general tastes in how we game online might shift over time.

Also, what is it about super data research that makes it an unreliable source (have not heard that before?

And, what would your interpretation be of the statistics from google?

Do you have any other data to add that could shed light on this idea?

Phry · July 2015

Originally posted by Robokapp
MOBAs won't replace MMOs anymore than shooters will replace city-building games.

This pretty much, MMO's and MOBA's are two entirely different genres of games, its a bit like saying Chess is on the way out because Jigsaws are getting more popular. Each genre has its own demographic, and there is really no correlation between MOBA's and MMO's that can be used to draw any meaningful conclusion, all we have been shown is speculation that is really not based on factual data, which just makes it all an opinion piece, which you can basically agree with, or disagree with, based on your own perception.

tawess · July 2015

I´d rather see it as the MMO genre comming to rest, it is no longer a "new thing" heck it is hardly a "thing"

(VR is the "new thing" )

MOBAs are not there yet.. they are still sort of a "thing"

Also the reason you see a lot less searching on places like Youtube is because the front page of YT is getting better/more invasive when it comes to findingt stuff you might like, so you are more likely to channel hop than outright search for stuff.

But as other pointed out... MOBA´s and MMO(insert genre here) do not directly compete in the same way that Forza, Need for Speed and Mario Kart does not directly compete but still are all racing games.

Axehilt · July 2015

Originally posted by Helleri
But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

And, MOBA (as well as, MOBA-like) games dominate their list.

SuperData is good for data, but bad for categorization.

They are probably relatively accurate in terms of the data they show.
Many of their most posted charts are about "MMOs" but they mis-categorize many non-MMOs as MMOs.
But they don't mis-categorize every genre as MMOs, so it only shows a limited picture of the overall game industry (though sure, because MOBAs are one genre they mis-categorize, we can compare MOBAs with MMOs using their data which is mostly what you're doing here.)
However this particular chart is ARPU (average rev per user) which is a somewhat inaccurate way of measuring the overall market. It's a measure of rev per player, which sort of measures the enthusiasm of individuals, without capturing the true overall popularity.

Also looking at the relative google popularity doesn't mean RPG gamers are suddenly moving to MOBAs. Correlation isn't causation:

MOBAs and RPGs are significant different genres, so we can't really use these shifts in popularity to say MMORPG players are now playing MOBAs. Obviously it'll be true of some players, but probably not most.

The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling. We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

Quirhid · July 2015

Does ice cream cause drowning?

Amjoco · July 2015

I think the question is are "you" going to quit playing mmorpgs and start playing MOBAs? /shrug

I dislike MOBAs as much as I like FPS, so I guess it all depends on who you are. I'm sticking with mmorpgs.

LacedOpium · July 2015

Originally posted by Phry
Originally posted by Robokapp
MOBAs won't replace MMOs anymore than shooters will replace city-building games.

This pretty much, MMO's and MOBA's are two entirely different genres of games, its a bit like saying Chess is on the way out because Jigsaws are getting more popular. Each genre has its own demographic, and there is really no correlation between MOBA's and MMO's that can be used to draw any meaningful conclusion, all we have been shown is speculation that is really not based on factual data, which just makes it all an opinion piece, which you can basically agree with, or disagree with, based on your own perception.

Correct.

Statistics can be easily used to manipulate or support any particular point of view. Assuming that one activity is more popular than another based simply on an increase or decrease in data search activity is a shallow way to come to a conclusion. For all we know the majority of these statistics may have come as a result of searches regarding a limited source(s), Ie., League of Legends. If so, this would not be indicative of the popularity of a genre as a whole, but of the popularity of a singular game.

Originally posted by Amjoco
I think the question is are "you" going to quit playing mmorpgs and start playing MOBAs? /shrug

I dislike MOBAs as much as I like FPS, so I guess it all depends on who you are. I'm sticking with mmorpgs.

Correct.

An increase in search activity of one over another is not necessarily indicative of the preference of one over the other. It may be that the preference is with the other activity but there hasn't been anything interesting released of the preferred activity to motivate a search. We are all well aware that there has been a dearth of good MMORPGs released of late, so it would not be surprising to see a lack of interest in that regard. Undoubtedly, this dearth may also be the reason why there has been an increase in MOBA popularity. This is not, however, an indication that MOBAs are preferred over MMORPGs. It may just be the case that there isn't a good choice of MMORPGs to play right now resulting in a decrease in search activity.

Kyleran · July 2015

Well, MOBAs are on the rise, and MMORPG's are sagging a bit, at least in terms of AAA developers investing in them these days, but whether one caused the other, I can't prove.

My own personal evidence, my son and his friends, (about 8) all were avid WOW Players for over 8 years, but in the last few stopped playing them and pretty much all play LOL right now.

M son says he'll return to MMO's once he has more free time, currently with work, school, friends, GF's etc, he has no time except for quick LOL matches now and then.

Azaron_Nightblade · July 2015

Different audiences IMO. Of course they cross over at some points, and MMOs have lost a chunk of their more PvP-focused players to MOBAs.

Superman0X · July 2015

I believe that you are missing the forest for the trees.

MMORPG's being played have only grown over the years. There have been some faster/slower periods, but in general, there are more people playing MMORPG's today that there ever have been. However, as there are more games that fall in this category, the results for individual games varies.

MOBA's are also growing, and there does not seem to be any long term cannibalization from the MMORPG genre. MOBA's had a very strong intial growth, and have now peaked (for a while), and are only seeing small amounts of growth, as many of the products in this category are failing.

In the long term, both genre's will do well, but do not necessarily compete. MMORPG's seem more competition from single player (small group) RPG's. MOBA's seem more competition from FPS. However, both should continue to grow over the years.

LegacyGame · July 2015

I thought it was just because most MMO's are lukewarm piles of diarrhea with bad vision/execution.

Helleri · July 2015

Originally posted by Axehilt

The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling. We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

That was really all I was trying to say. Is that this seems to be the case. Not that they are in direct competition. Or that one is the cause of the other. I don't feel I implied otherwise. I do feel it was incorrectly inferred (by more then on person). Heck the title is very purposefully written as "Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?" and not "Are MMORPG dying because MOBA are replacing them?" I feel like people replying (in general) got defensive over the mere idea of MMORPG becoming less popular in general (what ever reason aside) and just reacted based on the first part they heard played back in their heads. I thought I was very careful with my language and very transparent about the process via which I arrived at a big question...I guess I was not as well worded as I thought. Sorry, for that.

Also, MMO in my opinion is an umbrella term. I feel as well, that it is a little too all encompassing. Massively Multiplayer Online...That could even include things like Facebook and Second Life (if the only qualifiers is that it be massive in some sense, used by many at once and online). I actually like to call the wider genre MMOG (The G standing for game so as to be more specific about what is being discussed)c and refer more specifically to sub genres within it (such as I did by saying MMORPG and MOBA and not MMO and MOBA).

Furthermore debate over whether an MOBA is an MMOG/MMO always seems to end in ones definition of Massive. And, usually the argument against it is that lack of persistence equates to lack of massiveness. But, I feel that sort of falls flat. Because, even with persistence in most games one might consider truly massive. I rarely have the draw distance to see anything more of a world at once then I would see were it instanced. Nor do I commonly see more players at once then I would see were it instanced. So the end effect of persistent vs. instant is sort of the same.

But, even if one were to dismiss this and stick to their guns on massive necessarily meaning a large persistent world. Were do you draw that line? how do you fairly say "this is large enough to be massive". And, how do you factor in content per sq. m? Some games like arch lord or huge in the span of it's sheer size. But, you can run a long way between places without running into any actual content. Whereas some game worlds like Runescape are technically pretty small. But there is so much content packed into such a small area that movement is gated by the amount of things there are to experience and the world can feel large.

uidLuc1d · July 2015

MOBAs are fairly boring in my opinion. Nothing more than <INSERT FPS HERE> with different graphics, and a further camera angle. Get in, kill some folks, get out, repeat. Meh.

syltmacka · July 2015

sure hope not. mmos are way more fun and social in my oppinion.

mobas are just lazy hack and slash games.

Khebeln · July 2015

Moba is nice for casual players but gets boring REALLY fast for hardcore ones unless you seriously in to e-sport.

Personally moba feel repetitively boring for me, and lack depth and social structure.

nimander99 · July 2015

MOBA's are basically MMO-Lite so it's not surprising that everyone these days just wants to skip meaningful content and go straight to wreck-face time. I blame mmo makers for this though as we are constantly inundated with shite games that are turning this genre into a joke.

Khebeln · July 2015

Originally posted by Helleri
Originally posted by Axehilt

The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling. We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

That was really all I was trying to say. Is that this seems to be the case. Not that they are in direct competition. Or that one is the cause of the other. I don't feel I implied otherwise. I do feel it was incorrectly inferred (by more then on person). Heck the title is very purposefully written as "Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?" and not "Are MMORPG dying because MOBA are replacing them?" I feel like people replying (in general) got defensive over the mere idea of MMORPG becoming less popular in general (what ever reason aside) and just reacted based on the first part they heard played back in their heads. I thought I was very careful with my language and very transparent about the process via which I arrived at a big question...I guess I was not as well worded as I thought. Sorry, for that.

Also, MMO in my opinion is an umbrella term. I feel as well, that it is a little too all encompassing. Massively Multiplayer Online...That could even include things like Facebook and Second Life (if the only qualifiers is that it be massive in some sense, used by many at once and online). I actually like to call the wider genre MMOG (The G standing for game so as to be more specific about what is being discussed)c and refer more specifically to sub genres within it (such as I did by saying MMORPG and MOBA and not MMO and MOBA).

Furthermore debate over whether an MOBA is an MMOG/MMO always seems to end in ones definition of Massive. And, usually the argument against it is that lack of persistence equates to lack of massiveness. But, I feel that sort of falls flat. Because, even with persistence in most games one might consider truly massive. I rarely have the draw distance to see anything more of a world at once then I would see were it instanced. Nor do I commonly see more players at once then I would see were it instanced. So the end effect of persistent vs. instant is sort of the same.

But, even if one were to dismiss this and stick to their guns on massive necessarily meaning a large persistent world. Were do you draw that line? how do you fairly say "this is large enough to be massive". And, how do you factor in content per sq. m? Some games like arch lord or huge in the span of it's sheer size. But, you can run a long way between places without running into any actual content. Whereas some game worlds like Runescape are technically pretty small. But there is so much content packed into such a small area that movement is gated by the amount of things there are to experience and the world can feel large.

Can you really blame mmo veterans for not playing recent mmos considering the state of mmo games right now ?

We either get overhyped AAA garbage with reheated ideas, or few year old asian below generic mmos that no one plays there anymore.

There are some interesting projects on the horizon, but there is little innovation going on.

ceratop001 · July 2015

Mobas are just getting the run off from the failed mmorpg scene. Players are bored and just trying everything they can to find a home. The whole online gaming world is a mess.

Helleri · July 2015

I almost think MMORPG created MOBA in a sense. Think about dying MMORPG for a second.

What do you call an MMORPG that is effectively 1/10 the size (due to most of the content being rendered pointless filler by successive updates to the end game). Where the only important part of the game is carried out by a small group (comparative to full and active MMORPG player base) of high powered players that are mostly the same. That play out power struggles over small territories amongst each other waiting for new gear and enemies or new battle fields to fight on. Where the only real change usually is a shift in the Meta of how areas/maps are played?

Now MMORPG really didn't start dying in classic form until after WoW released (2004). So, if we consider Dota (2003) a derivative of predecessors and not an actual attempt at a MOBA (that it is would just be happenstance in this purview). And, we start of the beginning of MOBA with the actual deliberate attempt and coining of the acronym. Then we start the MOBA genre off with LoL (2009).

So, maybe...the MOBA sub genere, as a deliberate thing was an attempt to codify a style of game play that had come about first somewhat unintentionally from that starcraft mod (and done well) and then later again started to emerge unintentionally in many MMORPG due to the great dying that happened in the shadow cast by WoW.

It could be that there was a sense that when you cut out all the filler of an MMORPG. And, you focus hard on the meat of the end point,. you wind up with a marketable sub-genre. It may very well be that the former is at least partially responsible for birthing the latter. And, in-so-much MMORPG and MOBA might be closer related (almost blood related in a sense) then it might appear at a cursory glance.

...This is of course all conjecture based on a lot of supposition. But, still an intriguing line of reasoning.

Khebeln · July 2015

Well, all in all mmo genre is still young, and evolving as the technology changes so all is not lost yet.

What i predict will happen, and it is slowly already happening we will see more games that strip down all the mmo bad habbits and old fat like Neverwinter/Skyforge bah even old DDO.

You have quick access to quality gameplay and combat (even if you count how bugy Neverwinter Dungeons are) the next iteration of this play style Skyforge is doing it far better.

Problem with making really good sandbox is that, by the time its done its visually are already old. And making it really good takes many many years. Only exception to that trend is Eve Online that managed to always look young and fresh, thats why its only mmo in history that gains subscriptions as time passes. And will for many years to the future

Main issue with 3rd type of mmos, the classical themepark, that are the plague for many years now that started with the popularity of wow and creation of countless C class mmo games both in the west and asia.

Simply said redundant content, boring static combat.

Why make mmo where 90% of content is thrown away and forgotten ? I never understood that.

Why not make combat more interesting, in this day and age we can make amazing combat with the use of in game physics. World no longer needs to be static. Learn some stuff from single player games!

Thempark games will over time be taken over games like Neverwinter and Skyforge that almost dont have any redundant content.

Why not make self generating maps in games like that kinda like in D3 ?Not all of them need to be like that but even if you would make certain dungeons randomly generated it would extend game play by leaps and bounds.

fivoroth · July 2015

Originally posted by Helleri
Originally posted by Axehilt

The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling. We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

That was really all I was trying to say. Is that this seems to be the case. Not that they are in direct competition. Or that one is the cause of the other. I don't feel I implied otherwise. I do feel it was incorrectly inferred (by more then on person). Heck the title is very purposefully written as "Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?" and not "Are MMORPG dying because MOBA are replacing them?" I feel like people replying (in general) got defensive over the mere idea of MMORPG becoming less popular in general (what ever reason aside) and just reacted based on the first part they heard played back in their heads. I thought I was very careful with my language and very transparent about the process via which I arrived at a big question...I guess I was not as well worded as I thought. Sorry, for that.

Also, MMO in my opinion is an umbrella term. I feel as well, that it is a little too all encompassing. Massively Multiplayer Online...That could even include things like Facebook and Second Life (if the only qualifiers is that it be massive in some sense, used by many at once and online). I actually like to call the wider genre MMOG (The G standing for game so as to be more specific about what is being discussed)c and refer more specifically to sub genres within it (such as I did by saying MMORPG and MOBA and not MMO and MOBA).

Furthermore debate over whether an MOBA is an MMOG/MMO always seems to end in ones definition of Massive. And, usually the argument against it is that lack of persistence equates to lack of massiveness. But, I feel that sort of falls flat. Because, even with persistence in most games one might consider truly massive. I rarely have the draw distance to see anything more of a world at once then I would see were it instanced. Nor do I commonly see more players at once then I would see were it instanced. So the end effect of persistent vs. instant is sort of the same.

But, even if one were to dismiss this and stick to their guns on massive necessarily meaning a large persistent world. Were do you draw that line? how do you fairly say "this is large enough to be massive". And, how do you factor in content per sq. m? Some games like arch lord or huge in the span of it's sheer size. But, you can run a long way between places without running into any actual content. Whereas some game worlds like Runescape are technically pretty small. But there is so much content packed into such a small area that movement is gated by the amount of things there are to experience and the world can feel large.

MOBAs have been popular for a long time. Dota has had a huge following since the early 2000s before most of the current MMOs were even released. LoL released in 2007/8.

The two are completely unrelated. A lot of my gamer friends play MOBAs. Almost none of them play MMORPGs. They never played MMORPGs unless they were on the WoW bandwagon but that doesn't count. Even my dog was playing WoW during those hype years.

Also google searches don't imply anything. I don't think I have ever typed MMORPG in google. I have certainly never searched for MOBA. Besides its not like the MMO population has increased significantly over the last god knows how many years.

Grunty · July 2015

Why must everything about games be an either/or situation? I don't like MOBAs. Guess what? I don't play MOBAs and I don't care that other people like and play MOBAs. Let them play what they want and let me play what I want.

Popularity contests have never interested me and never will.

Play what you like. Ignore those who don't like what you play.

waynejr2 · July 2015

Originally posted by Quirhid
Does ice cream cause drowning?

I'd say it depends on the ratio of whipped cream to four leafed clovers.

Howdy, Stranger!

Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?

Comments

This have been a good conversation

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?

Comments

This have been a good conversation

Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV