Originally posted by Iceman8235 I love the people coming into this thread acting like this isn't a big deal because wow still has a lot of subs and it's normal for subs to drop after an expansion has been out for a while. This is probably the biggest news regarding wow in the last 10 years. Losing half of your subs in 9 months is tremendous no matter how you try to spin it. This isn't a normal post expansion sub drop. People aren't happy about where the game is going, the numbers speak for themselves. I haven't been subbed to wow for a long time, but I still think it's a decent game. I'm really interested to see where they go from here. The normal release a cinematic, list a few bullet points about the next xpac, and open the blizzbank to let the nerds throw their money in isn't going to work this time, they need to do something more drastic.
It's ultimately meaningless.
Is the game shutting down? No
Does this effect anyone not subbed? No
0 reason for me to care about this. People just want something to talk about I guess.
Originally posted by Kabulozo The fact is: it will regain 10 million subs after the expansion and it will plummet even more in the same period of time.
This is not the standard drop a couple of months after expansions that WOW has always seen from returnees that leave again. There is something else at work here that has turned into a steady sub drop trend.
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Originally posted by Kabulozo The fact is: it will regain 10 million subs after the expansion and it will plummet even more in the same period of time.
This is not the standard drop a couple of months after expansions that WOW has always seen from returnees that leave again. There is something else at work here that has turned into a steady sub drop trend.
I hope you're right. I just want this WoWish MMos trend to end, starting with Wildstar sinking ship.
Good talk about all you want, its a free country. Its still redundant at this point to talk about this same shit every year and if you are going to talk it.. use actual facts, numbers and information.. which you prob dont have if you arent part of the staff that actually attends the meetings. People are making up numbers off of assumptions about what they heard. Again. Internet culture..so nature of the beast I guess.
Blizzard Entertainment had the largest online player community in its history, with Q2 MAUsB up 50% year-over-year. ThoughWorld of Warcraft® ended the quarter at 5.6 million subscribersC, Blizzard revenues are up year-over-year based on strong performance across the expanding Blizzard portfolio. On June 23, 2015, Blizzard Entertainment released, Fury of Hellfire, one of the largest non-expansion content updates to date for World of Warcraft.Thisnew content helped stabilize the subscriber number towards the end of the quarter. World of Warcraft remains the No. 1 subscription?based MMORPG in the world.
That is actual facts from Blizzard themselves.
Where does it say they "Plummet to 5.6 M"
I didnt see that anywhere actually. They simply said we finished at 5.6 million. Did they say we started at 20M this year and fell to 5.6M? If they did please advise.
read my last post. Also read the last sentence of your stanza. Still NO. 1 so what the hell does it matter. Why is this news when it happens almost every single year.. people act like they dont know the cycle of this game by now. Like I said its redundant.
BTW 5.6 Million is incredible for any MMO to have.. esp a decade old one. Again what's the discussion here? What? Somebody made a MMO that has 10M subs or something?
I just dont really see the point of trying to make this a thing every year but again internet gonna internet.
Do you understand that mmorpgs like ESO and GW2 probably have more players in the West than WoW now? WoW most likely has less than 2 million in the west, people you play with. This is a big deal man. WoW is no longer king of the west.
You've got to be kidding me. "Probably" is not the same as "Have".. This is what I mean when I say people go off assumptions.. neither of those games are close to wow's numbers. If they were they would tell everybody, nobody would hide surpassing WOW.. are you kidding?
I was being nice, and said probably because only Blizzard knows WoWs true western population. All we know is more than half play in the east. I said probably because we know ESO and GW2 have sold much more than 2 million copies. It doesn't take a scientist or a press release to see what's going on here.
I tell you what if the next expansion announced is another bunch of zones, a class and boats expanded then I think the game is in serious trouble because that's more of the same, and gw2,wildstar,eso and even ff14 are now establishes and available as stable long term mmorpg homes with fresh conten and ideas.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Wow... I honestly thought the subs would of been relatively the same after the release of the wow token. The fact it dropped that much more... it really shows how much of a mess WoD was. It drew people in and quickly destroyed their faith.
Honestly, I am doubtful wow will ever jump in subscriber numbers that much more after how much they squandered WoD, destroying the faith in people who came back to wow.
I was being nice, and said probably because only Blizzard knows WoWs true western population. All we know is more than half play in the east. I said probably because we know ESO and GW2 have sold much more than 2 million copies. It doesn't take a scientist or a press release to see what's going on here.
No, we knew that 5 years ago. We have zero clue right now. Those numbers could have increased or decreased a lot since then and without anything official (preferably from Blizzard or their Chinese partber) you are just guessing.
And GW2 are selling in China as well, the exact number is discussed but they had 1.5M pre-orders so that is minimum. I don't think it is more than in the west though which I don't have any number for, only that it was 3.5M after a year (http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/28/guild-wars-2s-first-birthday-by-the-numbers/). 2 million active players in the west isn't unlikely but it surely isn't a fact either.
There is far too much guesses here, only Blizzard give an account for active players so any comparision besides income is really just guesses.
But there would still be a huge bloody press conference is ESO or GW2 had most players, neither Bethesda nor NC soft would be silent if they got a game that did that,
Originally posted by Bladestrom I tell you what if the next expansion announced is another bunch of zones, a class and boats expanded then I think the game is in serious trouble because that's more of the same, and gw2,wildstar,eso and even ff14 are now establishes and available as stable long term mmorpg homes with fresh conten and ideas.
Eh, Wildstar? I don't think Blizzard are much worried about that one even if Bashiok left them to be content designer for it.
Just look on NC softs earnings this quarter, there is an article about here just a few days old.
WoW's sub numbers have always been suspicious anyways.....Once they started having the Asian market their numbers exploded even though they arent measuring subs the same way....THey've always been vague on just how many US/EU subs they had and probably with good reason.
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Despite enjoying vanilla for several years, still blown away by how many folks have continued to play. Same goes for EQ/EQ2/UO and other long in the tooth games.
Addiction, boredom, pure enjoyment, whatever it is, pretty crazy that WoW is the most popular mmorpg out there, at least in the West.
Glad to see a variety of upcoming games that will hit more niche markets and hopefully not turn into such a watered down experience that older games have become and until recently, other games have tried to mimic.
Clearly WoW is still the "best" for many, but I hope even those fans have more options sooner than later. Too bad Blizzard couldn't have beaten themselves at their own game. Not that they aren't killing it across the genres.
I wasn't in any way suggesting that tokens were "not considered".
Tokens however exist in one of fours "states" and it matters when it comes to reporting:
as a code in the shop; cost "nothing" to produce; don't trouble the accountants;
bought by a seeker of gold; Blizzard get $20; I believe they have "booked" 100% of the revenue
bought for in-game gold; this earns Blizzard nothing but generates a "liability" to provide "30 days"
"cashed in" by players for 30 days; Blizzard (will) have counted these players as subs for this quarter.
Which leaves tokens in players accounts that have not been cashed. I think they have classed these as "deferred" revenue. Lets assume it is and 1.4M players all have 90 days game time to come. And everybody else leaves. Then Blizzard might announce 1.4M subscribers but $0 revenue. And it is revenue that really matters.
If the $64M deferred is down to tokens not yet used then - when you add in tokens that will have been used this quarter - that could be a huge $$$ number.
Tokens are really not that different from someones mom paying for their sub. As long as someone pays it is a sub no matter who (unless it is Blizzard or Activision).
So lets just count any used tokens as subs but lets not count ones that isn't cashed in until they get used or we will have counted them twice, first as subs and then as revenue.
When it comes to tokens in stage 3 and 4 of their life - absolutely. Stage 2 is purely financial however; a payment made for gold. And it looks to me like they have counted all the money and, if so, one can get a bit of a feel for how big a factor tokens are.
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Someone paid for the tokens, does it matter who pays for a sub?
And that Blizzard counts trial players is a rumour unless you actually have a reliable source.
Asian players do actually count just as any other players even if they pay less for shorter periods, have they been subbed during the last month they are active players just like anyone logging in the last month in a F2P/B2P game.
What really matters however and aren't faked is Wows income and it still is the MMO earning most money on the market.
They need a new class. Or to rebuild the old ones. Still, ten years old and tops in player numbers. Wonder how many of the original staff are still there?
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Don't forget that patch 6.2 will be the last major content patch before the next expansion, as stated by Cory Stockton, lead game designer of World of Warcraft. This will inevitably lead to an even further decline in the number of subscriptions for WoW. I wonder how the sub count will look like a couple of months from now...
If WoW goes F2P, players will jump to 20 million players in a heartbeat. There are just too many other F2P options for people right now. And, I think the surge in console MMO style games has to be hurting WoW right now.
Yeah, lets not go there. Destiny is not a MMORPG, it is a multiplayer shooter.
<snip>
The only fair thing if you want to compare P2P, F2P and B2P games is to check on the income and Wow still tops that one.
The income is the point though. Which actually brings in LoL and all the other f2p games as well.
For Destiny though get past the "is Destiny a proper mmo" and think of the revenue. In terms of numbers what AB have been reporting indicates it is massively popular. And still selling. 6 months ago AB reported 16M; last quarter under 20M - no exact number; this time over 20M. So: 4M-ish new copies sold in 6 months some of which were in this quarter..
Add in one DLC this quarter. If 25% - remember it is popular so not a hard stretch - at $25 then based on income and ignoring taxes and all sorts of things you should factor in to do it properly and it will have earned what WoW earned this quarter.
And from that you could say that TESO - potentially - could start to compete if it starts to sell regular DLC and if, I suspect, it sells more copies. We just don't have the data at the moment its just "millions".
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Someone paid for the tokens, does it matter who pays for a sub?
And that Blizzard counts trial players is a rumour unless you actually have a reliable source.
Asian players do actually count just as any other players even if they pay less for shorter periods, have they been subbed during the last month they are active players just like anyone logging in the last month in a F2P/B2P game.
What really matters however and aren't faked is Wows income and it still is the MMO earning most money on the market.
Many of these "accounts" are handled in a way that they technically never expire and aways count as "active" by Blizzard's definition , even if a player never spends more than 1hr on them. Much of the asian market is smoke, mirrors and bending the terms to bolster the total sub count.
Originally posted by Thorkune If WoW goes F2P, players will jump to 20 million players in a heartbeat. There are just too many other F2P options for people right now. And, I think the surge in console MMO style games has to be hurting WoW right now.
If subs keep plummeting like this, I fully expect WoW to go F2P.
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Someone paid for the tokens, does it matter who pays for a sub?
And that Blizzard counts trial players is a rumour unless you actually have a reliable source.
Asian players do actually count just as any other players even if they pay less for shorter periods, have they been subbed during the last month they are active players just like anyone logging in the last month in a F2P/B2P game.
What really matters however and aren't faked is Wows income and it still is the MMO earning most money on the market.
Many of these "accounts" are handled in a way that they technically never expire and aways count as "active" by Blizzard's definition , even if a player never spends more than 1hr on them. Much of the asian market is smoke, mirrors and bending the terms to bolster the total sub count.
Only if that were true there would be like 10,000 subscribers left outside of Asia as Blizzard continues to count more and more of these always active but paying nothing subscribers which clearly is not the case.
The income is the point though. Which actually brings in LoL and all the other f2p games as well.
For Destiny though get past the "is Destiny a proper mmo" and think of the revenue. In terms of numbers what AB have been reporting indicates it is massively popular. And still selling. 6 months ago AB reported 16M; last quarter under 20M - no exact number; this time over 20M. So: 4M-ish new copies sold in 6 months some of which were in this quarter..
Add in one DLC this quarter. If 25% - remember it is popular so not a hard stretch - at $25 then based on income and ignoring taxes and all sorts of things you should factor in to do it properly and it will have earned what WoW earned this quarter.
And from that you could say that TESO - potentially - could start to compete if it starts to sell regular DLC and if, I suspect, it sells more copies. We just don't have the data at the moment its just "millions".
We are talking MMOs here and Mobas and multiplayer FPS are in their own class. Otherwise did Hearthstone actually earn about twice of Wows income last year if we just are generally talking online computer games.
ESO did really turn around with the console launch but it is still a far way from earning more than Wow except possibly the month it launched on consoles but then again if we count that way did both GW2 and TOR do the same. But we ain't counting month but quarters and years.
ESO might very well pass Wow and so might GW2 but neither is there yet. Wow either needs to drop 2 million players more at least or either of them needs to get out an awesome expansion.
Crap, it sounds like I am defending Wow here even though I never seen what makes it so special. It is a pretty good MMO but I honestly think both GW2 and ESO are better. Heck, I think EQ was way better during it's prime. But that doesn't really matter here, Wow is still the top earning MMO.
If Activision continue to use it as a milk cow and make another crud expansion like WoD I think it will be below both those games when the last patch for the next expansion comes out though. Counting on that is a misstake, Blizzard do know how to sell stuff so they can still turn things around. The question is if Activision even is interested in trying or if they will focus on another sequel instead, like Warcraft 4. instead and already given up on Wow. The number of patches the last few years and the quality of the last expansion makes one wonder.
And there is a last thing to consider: Wow started to dive just after Kaplan left for Titan. That is hardly a coincident, he created the success (with some help from Strain that had the initial idea and started out on the game before leaving to start Arenanet and after that Undead labs). They really need him back or someone of equal talent if they want to turn the subs back to 10 millions again for more than the single month next expansion hits if even that.
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Someone paid for the tokens, does it matter who pays for a sub?
And that Blizzard counts trial players is a rumour unless you actually have a reliable source.
Asian players do actually count just as any other players even if they pay less for shorter periods, have they been subbed during the last month they are active players just like anyone logging in the last month in a F2P/B2P game.
What really matters however and aren't faked is Wows income and it still is the MMO earning most money on the market.
Many of these "accounts" are handled in a way that they technically never expire and aways count as "active" by Blizzard's definition , even if a player never spends more than 1hr on them. Much of the asian market is smoke, mirrors and bending the terms to bolster the total sub count.
Only if that were true there would be like 10,000 subscribers left outside of Asia as Blizzard continues to count more and more of these always active but paying nothing subscribers which clearly is not the case.
Can any of this be substantiated in any way? This is absolutely the first time I've ever heard of Blizzard massaging numbers. If there's a credible source for this practice, then I'd really like to read it. In a completely non sarcastic way.
Comments
It's ultimately meaningless.
Is the game shutting down? No
Does this effect anyone not subbed? No
0 reason for me to care about this. People just want something to talk about I guess.
This is not the standard drop a couple of months after expansions that WOW has always seen from returnees that leave again. There is something else at work here that has turned into a steady sub drop trend.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
I hope you're right. I just want this WoWish MMos trend to end, starting with Wildstar sinking ship.
I was being nice, and said probably because only Blizzard knows WoWs true western population. All we know is more than half play in the east. I said probably because we know ESO and GW2 have sold much more than 2 million copies. It doesn't take a scientist or a press release to see what's going on here.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
Wow... I honestly thought the subs would of been relatively the same after the release of the wow token. The fact it dropped that much more... it really shows how much of a mess WoD was. It drew people in and quickly destroyed their faith.
Honestly, I am doubtful wow will ever jump in subscriber numbers that much more after how much they squandered WoD, destroying the faith in people who came back to wow.
No, we knew that 5 years ago. We have zero clue right now. Those numbers could have increased or decreased a lot since then and without anything official (preferably from Blizzard or their Chinese partber) you are just guessing.
And GW2 are selling in China as well, the exact number is discussed but they had 1.5M pre-orders so that is minimum. I don't think it is more than in the west though which I don't have any number for, only that it was 3.5M after a year (http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/28/guild-wars-2s-first-birthday-by-the-numbers/). 2 million active players in the west isn't unlikely but it surely isn't a fact either.
There is far too much guesses here, only Blizzard give an account for active players so any comparision besides income is really just guesses.
But there would still be a huge bloody press conference is ESO or GW2 had most players, neither Bethesda nor NC soft would be silent if they got a game that did that,
Eh, Wildstar? I don't think Blizzard are much worried about that one even if Bashiok left them to be content designer for it.
Just look on NC softs earnings this quarter, there is an article about here just a few days old.
Wow has what i like to call fake subs, they don't count the subs correctly because of those 5,6 mil ,1/4 or more are from tokens so they still count as subs but dont pay anything, then we have the asian market where people can pay to be subscribers for a week and counting subs from asia always rises your numbers because of all the bots , and then blizzard still counts people on free trial as subscribers.
So that 5,6mil subscribers is even shorter than people think, it's probably rounding the 2-3 mil. But for obvious marketing reasons blizzard will try to inflate their sub numbers so people don't think the game is in such bad shape
Despite enjoying vanilla for several years, still blown away by how many folks have continued to play. Same goes for EQ/EQ2/UO and other long in the tooth games.
Addiction, boredom, pure enjoyment, whatever it is, pretty crazy that WoW is the most popular mmorpg out there, at least in the West.
Glad to see a variety of upcoming games that will hit more niche markets and hopefully not turn into such a watered down experience that older games have become and until recently, other games have tried to mimic.
Clearly WoW is still the "best" for many, but I hope even those fans have more options sooner than later. Too bad Blizzard couldn't have beaten themselves at their own game. Not that they aren't killing it across the genres.
When it comes to tokens in stage 3 and 4 of their life - absolutely. Stage 2 is purely financial however; a payment made for gold. And it looks to me like they have counted all the money and, if so, one can get a bit of a feel for how big a factor tokens are.
Someone paid for the tokens, does it matter who pays for a sub?
And that Blizzard counts trial players is a rumour unless you actually have a reliable source.
Asian players do actually count just as any other players even if they pay less for shorter periods, have they been subbed during the last month they are active players just like anyone logging in the last month in a F2P/B2P game.
What really matters however and aren't faked is Wows income and it still is the MMO earning most money on the market.
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
Don't forget that patch 6.2 will be the last major content patch before the next expansion, as stated by Cory Stockton, lead game designer of World of Warcraft. This will inevitably lead to an even further decline in the number of subscriptions for WoW. I wonder how the sub count will look like a couple of months from now...
Looking forward to: Crowfall / Lost Ark / Black Desert Mobile
The income is the point though. Which actually brings in LoL and all the other f2p games as well.
For Destiny though get past the "is Destiny a proper mmo" and think of the revenue. In terms of numbers what AB have been reporting indicates it is massively popular. And still selling. 6 months ago AB reported 16M; last quarter under 20M - no exact number; this time over 20M. So: 4M-ish new copies sold in 6 months some of which were in this quarter..
Add in one DLC this quarter. If 25% - remember it is popular so not a hard stretch - at $25 then based on income and ignoring taxes and all sorts of things you should factor in to do it properly and it will have earned what WoW earned this quarter.
And from that you could say that TESO - potentially - could start to compete if it starts to sell regular DLC and if, I suspect, it sells more copies. We just don't have the data at the moment its just "millions".
Many of these "accounts" are handled in a way that they technically never expire and aways count as "active" by Blizzard's definition , even if a player never spends more than 1hr on them. Much of the asian market is smoke, mirrors and bending the terms to bolster the total sub count.
If subs keep plummeting like this, I fully expect WoW to go F2P.
WoW has two types of subcribers here:
- Those that are permanent subscribers, no matter what happens.
- Those that come back to expansions, sub for 3-5 months and then gtfo.
I think the regular numbers will stay in the 4.5-5.5 million range, and the excess of that will always be those temporary subbers for the expansion.
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Only if that were true there would be like 10,000 subscribers left outside of Asia as Blizzard continues to count more and more of these always active but paying nothing subscribers which clearly is not the case.
We are talking MMOs here and Mobas and multiplayer FPS are in their own class. Otherwise did Hearthstone actually earn about twice of Wows income last year if we just are generally talking online computer games.
ESO did really turn around with the console launch but it is still a far way from earning more than Wow except possibly the month it launched on consoles but then again if we count that way did both GW2 and TOR do the same. But we ain't counting month but quarters and years.
ESO might very well pass Wow and so might GW2 but neither is there yet. Wow either needs to drop 2 million players more at least or either of them needs to get out an awesome expansion.
Crap, it sounds like I am defending Wow here even though I never seen what makes it so special. It is a pretty good MMO but I honestly think both GW2 and ESO are better. Heck, I think EQ was way better during it's prime. But that doesn't really matter here, Wow is still the top earning MMO.
If Activision continue to use it as a milk cow and make another crud expansion like WoD I think it will be below both those games when the last patch for the next expansion comes out though. Counting on that is a misstake, Blizzard do know how to sell stuff so they can still turn things around. The question is if Activision even is interested in trying or if they will focus on another sequel instead, like Warcraft 4. instead and already given up on Wow. The number of patches the last few years and the quality of the last expansion makes one wonder.
And there is a last thing to consider: Wow started to dive just after Kaplan left for Titan. That is hardly a coincident, he created the success (with some help from Strain that had the initial idea and started out on the game before leaving to start Arenanet and after that Undead labs). They really need him back or someone of equal talent if they want to turn the subs back to 10 millions again for more than the single month next expansion hits if even that.
Can any of this be substantiated in any way? This is absolutely the first time I've ever heard of Blizzard massaging numbers. If there's a credible source for this practice, then I'd really like to read it. In a completely non sarcastic way.