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As other MMOs have shown - Pantheon is likely to fail or be very niche
TheScavenger
Member EpicPosts: 3,321
Pantheon is likely to fail, or at the very least be a very niche MMO. But maybe a very niche MMO is good for some.
For example, these are the reasons it is very likely to fail:
Launch release (1 month in, 2 months tops but will already have lost a lot of players) not perfect? As vanguard saga of heroes showed, if release isn't perfect and even if the game gets fixed, and most will never go back to it again. This makes finding groups VERY hard except at only the latest levels, and anyone joining the game later in life won't be able to do content since its all group based.
Next, again Vanguard being a great example (it WAS the MMO made for people asking for an oldschool experience)...
Vanguard was by far the best MMO (thus far that has been released), but despite everyone on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool MMO, no one on MMORPG.com was interested in playing it. Sure launch was bad, but that is like getting a piece of cake at a restaurant and having a fly inside it. Instead of asking for a new slice of cake, you'd storm out the restaurant and never go back even if its a restaurant you've wanted made in your neighborhood for years or decades. Most people who REALLY wanted that cake and wanted that restaurant open, and enjoy that flavor of cake would instead ask for a new one slice, not leave and enjoy a brand new slice of cake.
So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience. Why ask for years for something, that something comes out, but not actually play it? If my dream game came out, warts, problems and all, I'd stick it out and if it did improve and I took a break, I'd go back. Obviously this means no ones dream game (very few anyway) is an oldschool experience. Because if it was, they'd have enjoyed Vanguard, the MMO made for an oldschool experience.
So, did Vanguard show that people don't REALLY want an oldschool MMO? Cause if I asked for years for a game to come out, and it was my dream game, I'd definitely play it especially if any bugs came out.
And if pantheon has any problems at launch at all, it will very likely follow in Vanguards footsteps because no one tries their "dream" game twice (which sounds like an oxymoron, if its your dream game, wouldn't you play it?)...
Now you may think this is a negative thread. But in fact it isn't. Vanguard was by far my favorite MMO, and it was incredibly sad to see it die. However Pantheon can be successful if it thinks itself a very niche experience, since most obviously don't want an oldschool experience (which is sad). Pantheon is my most looked forward to MMO coming out, and if its anything like vanguard, it'll be amazing.
For example, these are the reasons it is very likely to fail:
Launch release (1 month in, 2 months tops but will already have lost a lot of players) not perfect? As vanguard saga of heroes showed, if release isn't perfect and even if the game gets fixed, and most will never go back to it again. This makes finding groups VERY hard except at only the latest levels, and anyone joining the game later in life won't be able to do content since its all group based.
Next, again Vanguard being a great example (it WAS the MMO made for people asking for an oldschool experience)...
Vanguard was by far the best MMO (thus far that has been released), but despite everyone on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool MMO, no one on MMORPG.com was interested in playing it. Sure launch was bad, but that is like getting a piece of cake at a restaurant and having a fly inside it. Instead of asking for a new slice of cake, you'd storm out the restaurant and never go back even if its a restaurant you've wanted made in your neighborhood for years or decades. Most people who REALLY wanted that cake and wanted that restaurant open, and enjoy that flavor of cake would instead ask for a new one slice, not leave and enjoy a brand new slice of cake.
So, since no one enjoyed Vanguard, nor even gave it a shot after launch...that is a HUGE sign this kind of MMO is not wanted, even by those on MMORPG.com asking for an oldschool experience. Why ask for years for something, that something comes out, but not actually play it? If my dream game came out, warts, problems and all, I'd stick it out and if it did improve and I took a break, I'd go back. Obviously this means no ones dream game (very few anyway) is an oldschool experience. Because if it was, they'd have enjoyed Vanguard, the MMO made for an oldschool experience.
So, did Vanguard show that people don't REALLY want an oldschool MMO? Cause if I asked for years for a game to come out, and it was my dream game, I'd definitely play it especially if any bugs came out.
And if pantheon has any problems at launch at all, it will very likely follow in Vanguards footsteps because no one tries their "dream" game twice (which sounds like an oxymoron, if its your dream game, wouldn't you play it?)...
Now you may think this is a negative thread. But in fact it isn't. Vanguard was by far my favorite MMO, and it was incredibly sad to see it die. However Pantheon can be successful if it thinks itself a very niche experience, since most obviously don't want an oldschool experience (which is sad). Pantheon is my most looked forward to MMO coming out, and if its anything like vanguard, it'll be amazing.
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Comments
I am one who played it as part of my All Access pass and I agree that Sony fixed many of the problems, but we knew as soon as sony took over that there would be no real crew placed on the game. So perhaps it is more a matter of concern over longevity and the company managing the games. Who wants to invest time in a game that will never again be updated
...I'd never play a daybreak game, for that very reason. Why play EQ2? Or planetside 2? Daybreak is an investment company (or owned by one, same thing) and not likely to last years. An investment company only motive is a quick profit.
I very much see all of SOE's former games being shut down OR sold (and if sold, probably to crap companies like NCsoft or some other junk, since an investment company doesn't care what happens to the game)
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I see a ton load of people watching streamers play,they are so dedicated they give streamers money and sit there 24/7,so you have to ask,why are they not playing?Obvious reason are the games are not that good,not even the highest rated via player base.
Other reasons are just popularity,more popular means more revenue,more followers ,more subscribers etc etc.
So because pantheon is not released by Blizzard it will not be nearly marketed enough,nor will it carry the popularity flag.
Even if Pantheon was sent down by the gods,it would still not be the most popular mmorpg.Catch my point,people are playing games for all the wrong reasons and don't believe anyone claiming for FUN as that number is very small.
I would not be surprised Destiny 2 spent more on marketing than the game is worth,this is how giants keep getting big responses to very average games and Pantheon cannot compete in the money spending game.
Look at the massive threads we see on this site,the majority are Blizzard,obviously Blizz/Activision spending a lot of money to get their games promoted here.How many threads has this site created for Pantheon?VERY few,to the point we could say this is a Destiny 2 fansite and Pantheon is just some forgotten game.
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Also I beleive the future of MMO's is having 'AI' where instead of having limited in game events, the 'AI' would be able to create a whole series of events depending on the mmo world and move NPCs around as if they are real players and have in game politics.
If any 'niche' game has this good kind of 'AI' and has a lot of end game features, with 'good' combat, and 'good' art style, then even if it has niche elements it will do well.
In fact, at this point, any game that is large enough has to have some kind of niche. It just seems the niche element is also another way of saying that the MMO lacks end game development and has a few elements that make it different.
So in reality the word niche is more of an illusion that the game is a complete experience when used by some games due to not developing end game as much as they should have.
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If the devs don't believe in their own game then most of the fans aren't going to believe for long either.
Pantheon is a different game in a different situation. It's likely to fail too, but imho for different reason than why Vanguard failed.
I do not fanboy often, but I am honestly a fan of Brads work. So I say before writing off what pantheon can become, we wait and let the team show us what they are going to make it become.
There was also still a lot of hate for SOE over their mishandling of SWG and the NGE.
Finally it was a very competetive time, with Vanguard failure there were several major titles in the pipeline which drew everyone's attention away.
Pretty much a known fact, for many players you only get one chance to impress, bumble launch and very likely they will never go back.
Well, was true at least in my case, I've never returned to any game that I disliked at launch, including VG, ESO, LOTRO, SWTOR, AION and a few more.
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Your entire premise is based on Vanguard's track record. Pantheon is not Vanguard. Ergo, your post is mere speculation. You could be right. You also could be dead wrong. Why don't we just wait and see what happens. It's sort of like the games that people boldly declared "WoW killers", only in reverse. Now people are declaring games failures before they are even released. If the game is good, that's no guarantee it will be a hit, but it's much more likely.
Don't discount the word of mouth factor. If the game is addictive, word will get out, and other gamers will want to see for themselves if it's true. That's pretty much how it was for me with EQ. I went to my local game store (of course, computer games aren't purchased at the store anymore) to browse for a good game and I started hearing people talking about this new game called Everquest. I didn't buy it at first, but people kept talking about it. Finally my brother told me he bought it and it was awesome. That's what pushed it over the edge for me.
Agreed: LoL
I played and enjoyed Vanguard for years.
Granted, I did not spend as much time in Vanguard as I did EQ, but then, I was still active in my EQ guild at the time. Vanguard was what I played when nothing else was going on.
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You bring up something intriguing.
"Don't discount the word of mouth factor"
I'm back to 7 days to die. I get sick of it after playing it for so long, stop then play again. Every now and again, it pops back up on steam to remind me. It's not the greatest game by far, but very addictive when played.
On a separate note, I can't help but think this indie crowed funded game turned extremely successful...... However I have no real prof of that. Steam seems to be the only advertisement, yet it works.
Something else, It's one of the few games that became popular even being released in a crude alpha stage. In the beginning it was never broken, but very crude. Not sure if this could be considered "word of mouth".
Most mmo's cant seem to get away with crude alpha like this... or could it ?
A game like "WWII-Online", which has been running for 16 years, "failed" because it doesn't have a huge player base and doesn't make millions in revenue. Yet it still has players, and the money it does generate keeps the devs from starving.
Pantheon may indeed "fail", but that doesn't mean it won't be played by a few thousand people for the next 10 years...
This is true,
Millions get on American Airlines flights everyday. Yet they clam their broke. But they don't tell you how they embezzle all the money and leave nothing
Niche games can still do pretty fine though, Eve is a good example. It certainly is niche but it have hold a pretty respectable playerbase for a long time now.
Pantheons goal is to keep developing it and have enough players to do some kind of profit. The numbers they need for that is rather modest so I think they can do that unless they botch things up.
Vanguard when it released is not a great example. First it was a different time back then with plenty of classic MMOs still viable for the people who wanted something more classical. That is not the case anymore, 10 more years have lead those games to be totally dated and many of them have been updated a few times too many.
Secondly, Vanguard was revamped once before launch that certainly messed things up, it changed programmers during development and SOE released it a year too early.
There was a lot of mistakes involved and Brad have hopefully learned from them.
Finally, not all Pantheons mechanics are classic and if the new ones work out the game will do fine.
VR just has to deliver on that... (no pressure)
Pantheon has to be different. Competing with modern mmos is not an option.
There were definitely other people in game. Now, some people don't like to be a part of a game that gives off the impression the developers have forsaken it. So that's another group you haven't taken into account.
So I strongly suspect your statement here isn't backed up by much of anything.
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