Agree. The main problem is the trend of "Everquest cloning". Many of the market sharks see Everquest's success, and feel that the best way to guarantee success is to copy the formula. They also assume that it is acceptable to release a game bug ridden at first, as everquest did so as well. WRONG. Many of the people who are drawn to Everquest-type gameplay are already at everquest, and are not going to leave for another MMO of the same type. I myself got sick and tired of all the clones, and recently decided to play the original. Not surprisingly, it is much better than the imitations.
There are over 100 MMORPG games coming out in the future. I can pretty much guarantee that at least 25-35% of them will get cancelled by this time next year. I'm sure there will be some that get cancelled that you never even heard of before. Loosing Mythica and Ninth Domain is just the tip of the iceberg. Wait until World of Warcraft, Lineage 2 and EverQuest 2 are released. Then watch the announcements start rolingl in. Many companies know that the market is starting to get saturated and only the BIG boys will be the ones who make the big bucks. I had never even heard of Ninth Domain until I came to MMORPG.com .
Originally posted by En1Gma i think it would be nice if they fired the Developers instead of terminating the actual game Ok, everybody, lets get together and chant: Fire Raph Koster, Fire Raph Koster, fire Raph Koster, fire Raph Koster........
If you fired the developers, who would make the game? When you have developers who have a vision on how they want a MMO game to be developed, it's hard for a publisher to fire the whole staff and then bring new developers in to finish a game 4-5 months later. It just doesn't work that way with MMORPG games. With console games it can be done sometimes, but with MMORPG's the whole vision is usually ruined and the game ends up being only part of what people had expected.
Who the heck is Ralph Koster? Is he as bad as that David Bowman guy?
Originally posted by XanderZane Wait until World of Warcraft, Lineage 2 and EverQuest 2 are released. Then watch the announcements start rolingl in.
This is the same old mantra that's been chanted over and over by people. I will say with a strong degree of confidence that I believe you are absolutely wrong. Mind you, that's my opinion...as your statement above is your opinion.
This market has a LOT of room for growth. This is a trend, not a fad.
This market has a LOT of room for growth. This is a trend, not a fad.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, ianubisi, I wish I had your gift for brevity. You say more with fewer words than just about anyone.
I agree that the market has a lot of room for growth, but the challenge is tapping into the key resource that will foster that growth: new players. I'm not talking about EQ and UO refugees. I'm talking about those who have never played a MMOG before.
For a long time, people have looked at the player base and said, "there are only so many players for MMOGs." That view is based upon existing players. In that sense the previous statement is correct. However, if one looks at the bigger picture, there are thousands who are no averse to paying monthly fees for television, radio, internet access, etc. Why would they be averse to paying for an interactive form of entertainment? MMOGs are truly the best form of persistent interactive entertainment available.
The problem I see with the genre right now is one that has been stated throughout this thread. It is the lack of diversity among MMOGs. Go to the Game List section and sort by genre. 90% are in the Fantasy or Sci Fi category (with a huge majority of those in the Fantasy genre). The few that are doing something original are going to be either handsomely rewarded or killed off quickly (originality isn't always a good thing ).
I think MMOGs are fine and are going to get better. There is going to be some bloodletting along the way, but I hope that in 5 years people will view this the way they view TV, with different games as "channels" (for lack of a better word), so one can go here to play fantasy or her to play sci fi or here to play a crafting sim. Maybe 5 years is a bit aggressive, but I'd like to see it soon.
Originally posted by Koltrane I think MMOGs are fine and are going to get better. There is going to be some bloodletting along the way, but I hope that in 5 years people will view this the way they view TV, with different games as "channels" (for lack of a better word), so one can go here to play fantasy or her to play sci fi or here to play a crafting sim. Maybe 5 years is a bit aggressive, but I'd like to see it soon. Keep the faith, my brothers!
This brings up a interesting point. We only have X dollars per month to spend on entertanment. When will people start canceling things.... and will it be Cable TV channels or MMORPG's that get cut out of monthly bugets?
But in whole I agree with Koltrane on this.
-=-=-=-=- Chess the original hardcore PvP game!
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% Test learn what it means here. Yee: Ach: 85% GRE: 65% AFF: 15% Imm 15% Test Click here to learn about it.
-=-=-=-=- Achievers realise that killers as a concept are necessary in order to make achievement meaningful and worthwhile (there being no way to "lose" the game if any fool can "win" just by plodding slowly unchallenged). -bartle
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% The Test. Learn what it means here.
Originally posted by Clever_Glove This brings up a interesting point. We only have X dollars per month to spend on entertanment. When will people start canceling things.... and will it be Cable TV channels or MMORPG's that get cut out of monthly bugets?
Two points:
Yes, we only have X dollars to spend, but I think the real limiting factor to MMOGs is time. I only have so much free time to spend on a game. Even if I don't mind spending $50/month in gaming fees, how can I devote the proper amount of time to three separate games? This is why I think, with the exception of hardcore gamers (who are pretty much locked in anyway), that money won't matter as much as time.
However, if we know anything, we know that many people in the West will spend money on non-necessary items first. It's a sad commentary, but I see only the bare necessities (food, clothing, etc) being put first, and those begrudgingly. I have known people who have had trouble paying their rent, but would maintain EQ accounts they no longer played because they had uber characters with all kinds of high level rare equipment. It's not much different than the trailer with a BMW parked out front or a welfare recipient wearing $200 Nikes (although the car and the shoes are more for show than the toons). If it comes down to a choice of cable or MMOGs, I think cable slam dunks gaming, at least in TV-centric America. Few people will forego their HBO or MTV or whatever in favor of questing for treasure.
I'm not at all disturbed at the loss of some mmorpgs. I was disappointed at the cancellation of Mythica, especially after all the overblown hype, newsletters whetting the appetite, immersive storyline & expansive quest promises, etc. But overall, it's a healthy sign that the genre is finally coming into it's own- & the ebb & flow of certain titles is just part of the whole process. It's actually kind of funny to see the big corporate ventures toppling, while the good old 'garage' game gurus continue to weather the storms & move steadily forward in this growing marketplace.
"I want you to tell me the tale that no one else will let you share; the story that whispers to you in your dreams...& haunts your every waking moment."~Vixen
Two points: Yes, we only have X dollars to spend, but I think the real limiting factor to MMOGs is time. I only have so much free time to spend on a game. Even if I don't mind spending $50/month in gaming fees, how can I devote the proper amount of time to three separate games? This is why I think, with the exception of hardcore gamers (who are pretty much locked in anyway), that money won't matter as much as time. However, if we know anything, we know that many people in the West will spend money on non-necessary items first. It's a sad commentary, but I see only the bare necessities (food, clothing, etc) being put first, and those begrudgingly. I have known people who have had trouble paying their rent, but would maintain EQ accounts they no longer played because they had uber characters with all kinds of high level rare equipment. It's not much different than the trailer with a BMW parked out front or a welfare recipient wearing $200 Nikes (although the car and the shoes are more for show than the toons). If it comes down to a choice of cable or MMOGs, I think cable slam dunks gaming, at least in TV-centric America. Few people will forego their HBO or MTV or whatever in favor of questing for treasure. I mean, I would, but I'm weird that way.
A: I think you nailed my response in B. While most of us only have time for 1 MMORPG, I know many people that are paying accounts they haven't played in years. I have a rule, I'll pay for 1 MMORPG at a time... if I decide to play another, the accounts are canceled shortly after. Why pay for something you no longer need?
B: (fighting the urge to go off topic and talk about poor in America.) PC's provide 95% of my home entertainment. 4% radio, and other is 1%. I only have cable TV because basic cable comes with the cable modem otherwise, I wouldn't have it. I hate TV. (although I love going to movies. /shurg)
I'm sure there boats of Americans that would cut TV before I-Net.... but nether are (food, cloths, rent) So generally speaking if you can afford one, you should be able to afford the minial fee for both. Where things go badly for MMORPG"s is the 100+ a month you can rack up with accounts. I've always wonder that precentage of the user base are payers but not players?
How many is to many to pay for but not play?
-=-=-=-=- Chess the original hardcore PvP game!
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% Test learn what it means here. Yee: Ach: 85% GRE: 65% AFF: 15% Imm 15% Test Click here to learn about it.
-=-=-=-=- Achievers realise that killers as a concept are necessary in order to make achievement meaningful and worthwhile (there being no way to "lose" the game if any fool can "win" just by plodding slowly unchallenged). -bartle
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% The Test. Learn what it means here.
Originally posted by vixen It's actually kind of funny to see the big corporate ventures toppling, while the good old 'garage' game gurus continue to weather the storms & move steadily forward in this growing marketplace.
That's the entertainment industry for you. But in the end, corporate ventures dominate and they always will. Innovation comes from the fringes, stability from the establishment.
Originally posted by Anticat I think there is a natural ebb and flow to these kinds of markets - and by that, I mean markets that: 1) Start fairly small. 2) Experience some growth, and more importantly, some profit. Because the number of products on the market is still relatively small, customer base participates in each undertaking (each game), since each is new and different. 3) Suddenly everyone rushes in to cash in with their version to get a piece of that money pie. 4) Customer base gets disenfranchised; you no longer have every player trying every product, because so much of the output is poorly-designed and hurried to market. 5) Weaker competitors collapse as the now-seasoned player base chooses only the best products.
I agree.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------PROBABILITY(YOUR STATEMENTS BEING MOTIVATED BY FEAR(I>U)) > .5
eh... IMO, this generation of mmorpg has reached its peak. Even the new games coming out are not something unique of its own. From here.. I see the mmorpg genre falling until something new is made... like a virtual reality graphics kind of thing...
I dunno... it could be my hopes being crushed over and over with only mediocre mmorpg's...
this is from my Economics textbook about the cycle of the market competition the mmorpg market is a textbook example so far: we are now entering phaze 3
phaze 1: business starts out 1-3 companies have the whole market for themselves, Trend: up
Phaze 2: many companies enter the market as it seems succesfull however the market is growing in rapid speed so there is really no competition Trend: up
phaze 3: there are alot of companys on the market, however the market isn't growing so much any longer, more and more companies have to abandon it due to the competition Trend: down
Sub-phaze 4a: back to phaze 1 or 2
sub-phaze 4b: the big crunch: all smaller companies will leave the market the big ones will start an Oligarchopoly
If in some way the current trend forces companies to re-evalaulate their product in relation to what consumers want, then I am fine with it. I can only hope that we will move beyond the carbon copy, cookie cutter knock-offs and into some new territory with MMO's. I also hope the new trend discourages companies from releasing beta versions of their games as the final product and then spend the next few months patching the hell out of it.
How many of us have changed our purchasing habits with relation to MMO's based on the recent trend of releasing incomplete games. How many of us were affected when a gaming powerhouse with near limitless resources like SOE and LucasArts released a game that was at best 85% complete ?
Notice: The views expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of MMORPG.com or its management.
Originally posted by Raxman this is from my Economics textbook about the cycle of the market competition the mmorpg market is a textbook example so far: we are now entering phaze 3 phaze 1: business starts out 1-3 companies have the whole market for themselves, Trend: up Phaze 2: many companies enter the market as it seems succesfull however the market is growing in rapid speed so there is really no competition Trend: up phaze 3: there are alot of companys on the market, however the market isn't growing so much any longer, more and more companies have to abandon it due to the competition Trend: down Sub-phaze 4a: back to phaze 1 or 2 sub-phaze 4b: the big crunch: all smaller companies will leave the market the big ones will start an Oligarchopoly---------------------------------------------
You are making the assumption that we have left phase 2 and entered phase 3. Citing 3 companies leaving a field of 100+ does not match the "more and more companies have to abandon" phrase.
Originally posted by kingslayer How many of us have changed our purchasing habits with relation to MMO's based on the recent trend of releasing incomplete games. How many of us were affected when a gaming powerhouse with near limitless resources like SOE and LucasArts released a game that was at best 85% complete ?
I, for one, have changed my purchasing habits. I doubt I'll be the first player of any MMOG from now on. It's not just SOE, however. It seems that the last few big MMOGs have been released in final beta stages.
EA made an interesting move with Earth & Beyond. People who "prepurchased" the game were guaranteed a spot in the final beta. In other words, EA sold beta slots! Savvy marketing, but I don't know that it helped the game become better. SOE executed a similar move with Lords of EverQuest when they guaranteed purchasers of that game a spot in the EQ2 beta. It's as if beta testing has become less of a tool and more of a marketing perk.
I think the bloom has come off the beta testing rose a bit, as more people have joined betas and realized it's not merely an early peek at the game. Everyone wants a shot at playing EQ2, but few want to search out bugs and duly report them. There's little more ironic than a beta tester griping because a bug is preventing him from "playing the game." The question is, are the developers actually using the feedback from these open betas for fix the game for general release, or are they just viewing this group as the first wave of real players? Recent events make me think the latter, unfortunately.
Hopefully the recent shake-up will cause companies to endeavor to release a game that is ready for market. One of the biggest issues new games face is not so much a lack of initial players, but a rapid drop-off of players after the free subscription expires. I can think of several games that have suffered because the game was 90% there and, after a month, players said, "Enough!"
I have a rule, I'll pay for 1 MMORPG at a time... if I decide to play another, the accounts are canceled shortly after. Why pay for something you no longer need?
That's a good rule, one I follow also. Those I know who are maintaining old gaming accounts are under the impression that they may, "go back to it" someday. I can appreciate that, but we need to inject a dose of reality. If it's costing you $150/year for something you "may play again," it's probably not worth it, especially since several publishers let you reactivate your account. I quit playing DAoC in 2002 and only recently re-joined. All my original characters were still in place. Imagine if I'd paid $13/month for 22 months!
PC's provide 95% of my home entertainment. 4% radio, and other is 1%. I only have cable TV because basic cable comes with the cable modem otherwise, I wouldn't have it. I hate TV. (although I love going to movies. /shurg)
You and me both, but we're oddballs in relation to the general population. (Actually, the TV zombies are the oddballs IMHO, but that's another topic ) I think most people in America today get the overwhelming share of their entertainment from television. As PCs and high-speed access proliferate, I think the number of folks using PCs as their primary leisure device will climb, but we're a long way from overtaking the idiot box.
I'm sure there boats of Americans that would cut TV before I-Net.... but nether are (food, cloths, rent) So generally speaking if you can afford one, you should be able to afford the minial fee for both. Where things go badly for MMORPG"s is the 100+ a month you can rack up with accounts. I've always wonder that precentage of the user base are payers but not players?
I'd bet it's more than you'd think. I often think of that when I see the numbers for some of the bigger games. EQ boasts 450,000 subscribers, but how many of those are second and third accounts or inactive accounts that people are maintaining? I'm sure SOE doesn't care, as it's still revenue.
You are making the assumption that we have left phase 2 and entered phase 3. Citing 3 companies leaving a field of 100+ does not match the "more and more companies have to abandon" phrase.
I'm not in the assumption that we have left phaze 2 i'm saying that we are leaving... 2 different things. Believe me we have just tasted a drop of what is to come. I believe the newcomers this year will have a very tough time ahead. I believe that only newcomers who allready have somewhat of a fanbase from old MMORPG's or other games may compete. We saw it last year with SWG skyrocketing. I Believe that a game like that. who can keep some uniqueness and fun in gameplay will become MMORPG on the sale side.
Originally posted by Raxman I'm not in the assumption that we have left phaze 2 i'm saying that we are leaving... 2 different things.
Let me remind you of what you originally wrote:
Originally posted by Raxman this is from my Economics textbook about the cycle of the market competition the mmorpg market is a textbook example so far: we are now entering phaze 3
Entering phase 3 means you've left phase 2, or are you going to suggest that somehow there is an amorphous overlap?
If you are suggesting we are entering phase 3 then you are suggesting that we are entering a downward trend. This is what I contest. I do not see a downward trend at all. Remember, market corrections happen at all times in healthy and unhealthy markets and market conditions alike.
Will more MMOGs fail or be terminated early? Indeed they will...but that's not news. Games have been cancelled for decades, some of which were deep in a development cycle, some almost ready for release to the public. The reasons are myriad and often undisclosed, or at least obfuscated by management. You would think, if you used cancelled games as your trend indicator, that gaming in general has seen many downward trends. But that is clearly not so, as the continuing boom of revenue confirms.
The annuity revenue model will continue to make the MMOG an exceptionally attractive option for those willing to accept the inherent risks in being early to market. And believe me, we are very early in this market.
Let me just take that economics textbook of yours and toss it out the window shall we? Because it is making you look silly.
Ok Basic Market Economy. Basic as in, everyone should know this, no one should ever have to write this down.
If, at any time, the market finds a lucrative thread of business that seems to be popular among the average buyers at the moment, that thread of business will be, without a doubt and heavilly so, flooded by everyone and their sister until it hits the roof and goes through it. After this phenomena has happened, the market will by itself and its nature, correct itself into a more balanced situation close to the scale of demand.
It happended to the Dancing Flower and the Singing Fish, it happened to all the Web Design Companies and all the Jeans Companies, it happened to all the T shirt compaines with small fruits and animals on the chest and it will, without a doubt, happen to the MMORPG companies.
It is just the way it works... Like the way your mouth always tasted a bit icky in the morning, no matter how much you brushed your teeth the night before, it is a part of human nature. As soon as someone see a thing someone else make tons of money on, they will, even if they only have marginal skill, see if they can do something to cash in on it as well.
Now... ANY company with some seriousness here, will see when the market is flooded or is about to be flooded, and then make a calculation on the risk versus reward. If they feel their product is not up to the mark they want, or if the interest is too low aorund it, or if they just feel the cost is too high compared to the calculated revenue, they might feel it is the wrong time to add their product to an already flooded market.
That is what is happening now... The market is balancing itself out. Soon, we will have our Levi's of jeans, our Lacoste of shirts, our Super Mario of platforms, and most others will disappear into oblivion. In a few years, will anyone sit and say "That was the end of this genre"? Nope... Most will say "Finally the jokers are cleaned out of the market" and be happy about that. it is not a downward spiral anywhere.. It is part of market evolution.. forward.. not down.
"This is not a game to be tossed aside lightly. It should be thrown with great force"
Entering phaze 3 can mean that you're in the end of phaze 2 and soon will enter phaze 3.
however I do see a downward trend in that some mmorpg projects are getting cut I do see a downward trend in that existing MMORPG's are being cancelled.
what we are not discussing is other kinds of games but just MMORPG's wich has been realitively saved from cuts so far. The rescent cuts and some market dissapointments last year is showing that many MMORPG producers are aknowledging that we're entering phaze 3
sorry for taking the role of a doomsday prophet (the end is near! oh the end is near!) but that is my belief
The economics of computer games is unusual, if not unique, compared to other fields of entertainment. For example, if you want to buy Spy Kids 3D (which comes out tomorrow), you will probably pay around $20. The price is not extraordinarily high because the movie already had a successful theatrical run followed by PPV showings, each of which contributed to the bottom line. The home video releases are the third wave of revenue for this title.
PC Games, however, have a much shorter shelf life. When the game comes out, that's it. Very few games have a second life (I'm not talking about sequels). Even the hottest games around are usually selling in the bargain bin within 6-8 months of release, so the developers have to strike while the iron is hot. Without getting into too many other areas, suffice it to say that it's a much more challenging field.
MMOGs are different still, given that they are ongoing. GTAIII was a huge game. Everyone I know has a copy, and none of them play it anymore. Compare that to EverQuest - 5 years old and going strong. Why? GTAIII and other non-persistent games are basically static (again, not talking about mods, etc.) whereas MMOGs regularly change. Therefore, the potential lifespan of a MMOG is much greater than that of a standard game.
My point is that it is difficult to pin these events to a specific economic theory. I'm not saying that your economic arguments are without merit - not at all. What I am saying is that persistent worlds bring a whole different perspective to the economic argument and that has to be taken into account.
Again, I think these cancellations are part of the natural cycle of the market. It's just that these three getting hammered consecutively is shocking, to say the least.
Comments
Xander
Xander
If you fired the developers, who would make the game? When you have developers who have a vision on how they want a MMO game to be developed, it's hard for a publisher to fire the whole staff and then bring new developers in to finish a game 4-5 months later. It just doesn't work that way with MMORPG games. With console games it can be done sometimes, but with MMORPG's the whole vision is usually ruined and the game ends up being only part of what people had expected.
Who the heck is Ralph Koster? Is he as bad as that David Bowman guy?
Xander
Xander
This is the same old mantra that's been chanted over and over by people. I will say with a strong degree of confidence that I believe you are absolutely wrong. Mind you, that's my opinion...as your statement above is your opinion.
This market has a LOT of room for growth. This is a trend, not a fad.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, ianubisi, I wish I had your gift for brevity. You say more with fewer words than just about anyone.
I agree that the market has a lot of room for growth, but the challenge is tapping into the key resource that will foster that growth: new players. I'm not talking about EQ and UO refugees. I'm talking about those who have never played a MMOG before.
For a long time, people have looked at the player base and said, "there are only so many players for MMOGs." That view is based upon existing players. In that sense the previous statement is correct. However, if one looks at the bigger picture, there are thousands who are no averse to paying monthly fees for television, radio, internet access, etc. Why would they be averse to paying for an interactive form of entertainment? MMOGs are truly the best form of persistent interactive entertainment available.
The problem I see with the genre right now is one that has been stated throughout this thread. It is the lack of diversity among MMOGs. Go to the Game List section and sort by genre. 90% are in the Fantasy or Sci Fi category (with a huge majority of those in the Fantasy genre). The few that are doing something original are going to be either handsomely rewarded or killed off quickly (originality isn't always a good thing
).
I think MMOGs are fine and are going to get better. There is going to be some bloodletting along the way, but I hope that in 5 years people will view this the way they view TV, with different games as "channels" (for lack of a better word), so one can go here to play fantasy or her to play sci fi or here to play a crafting sim. Maybe 5 years is a bit aggressive, but I'd like to see it soon.
Keep the faith, my brothers!
-----
Old timer.
This brings up a interesting point. We only have X dollars per month to spend on entertanment. When will people start canceling things.... and will it be Cable TV channels or MMORPG's that get cut out of monthly bugets?
But in whole I agree with Koltrane on this.
-=-=-=-=-
Chess the original hardcore PvP game!
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% Test learn what it means here.
Yee: Ach: 85% GRE: 65% AFF: 15% Imm 15% Test Click here to learn about it.
-=-=-=-=-
Achievers realise that killers as a concept are necessary in order to make achievement meaningful and worthwhile (there being no way to "lose" the game if any fool can "win" just by plodding slowly unchallenged). -bartle
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% The Test. Learn what it means here.
∙name: EViLD0G
∙clan: [EXE]
∙playing: EQ, SIMS, AC, AC2, DAoC, FFXI, AW, RS
∙planning: Ryzom
Two points:
Yes, we only have X dollars to spend, but I think the real limiting factor to MMOGs is time. I only have so much free time to spend on a game. Even if I don't mind spending $50/month in gaming fees, how can I devote the proper amount of time to three separate games? This is why I think, with the exception of hardcore gamers (who are pretty much locked in anyway), that money won't matter as much as time.
However, if we know anything, we know that many people in the West will spend money on non-necessary items first. It's a sad commentary, but I see only the bare necessities (food, clothing, etc) being put first, and those begrudgingly. I have known people who have had trouble paying their rent, but would maintain EQ accounts they no longer played because they had uber characters with all kinds of high level rare equipment. It's not much different than the trailer with a BMW parked out front or a welfare recipient wearing $200 Nikes (although the car and the shoes are more for show than the toons). If it comes down to a choice of cable or MMOGs, I think cable slam dunks gaming, at least in TV-centric America. Few people will forego their HBO or MTV or whatever in favor of questing for treasure.
I mean, I would, but I'm weird that way.
-----
Old timer.
I'm not at all disturbed at the loss of some mmorpgs.
I was disappointed at the cancellation of Mythica, especially after all the overblown hype, newsletters whetting the appetite, immersive storyline & expansive quest promises, etc.
But overall, it's a healthy sign that the genre is finally coming into it's own- & the ebb & flow of certain titles is just part of the whole process.
It's actually kind of funny to see the big corporate ventures toppling, while the good old 'garage' game gurus continue to weather the storms & move steadily forward in this growing marketplace.
"I want you to tell me the tale that no one else will let you share; the story that whispers to you in your dreams...& haunts your every waking moment."~Vixen
A: I think you nailed my response in B. While most of us only have time for 1 MMORPG, I know many people that are paying accounts they haven't played in years. I have a rule, I'll pay for 1 MMORPG at a time... if I decide to play another, the accounts are canceled shortly after. Why pay for something you no longer need?
B: (fighting the urge to go off topic and talk about poor in America.) PC's provide 95% of my home entertainment. 4% radio, and other is 1%. I only have cable TV because basic cable comes with the cable modem otherwise, I wouldn't have it. I hate TV. (although I love going to movies. /shurg)
I'm sure there boats of Americans that would cut TV before I-Net.... but nether are (food, cloths, rent) So generally speaking if you can afford one, you should be able to afford the minial fee for both. Where things go badly for MMORPG"s is the 100+ a month you can rack up with accounts. I've always wonder that precentage of the user base are payers but not players?
How many is to many to pay for but not play?
-=-=-=-=-
Chess the original hardcore PvP game!
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% Test learn what it means here.
Yee: Ach: 85% GRE: 65% AFF: 15% Imm 15% Test Click here to learn about it.
-=-=-=-=-
Achievers realise that killers as a concept are necessary in order to make achievement meaningful and worthwhile (there being no way to "lose" the game if any fool can "win" just by plodding slowly unchallenged). -bartle
Bartle: A: 93% E: 55% S:3% K: 50% The Test. Learn what it means here.
That's the entertainment industry for you. But in the end, corporate ventures dominate and they always will. Innovation comes from the fringes, stability from the establishment.
I agree.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------PROBABILITY(YOUR STATEMENTS BEING MOTIVATED BY FEAR(I>U)) > .5
eh... IMO, this generation of mmorpg has reached its peak. Even the new games coming out are not something unique of its own. From here.. I see the mmorpg genre falling until something new is made... like a virtual reality graphics kind of thing...
I dunno... it could be my hopes being crushed over and over with only mediocre mmorpg's...
Anyone expecting new MMOGs to come to market with "revolutionary" or "totally new" ideas are bound to be disappointed.
The amount of money involved in the development, release, and maintenance of a MMOG is prohibative to risk.
this is from my Economics textbook about the cycle of the market competition the mmorpg market is a textbook example so far: we are now entering phaze 3
phaze 1: business starts out 1-3 companies have the whole market for themselves, Trend: up
Phaze 2: many companies enter the market as it seems succesfull however the market is growing in rapid speed so there is really no competition Trend: up
phaze 3: there are alot of companys on the market, however the market isn't growing so much any longer, more and more companies have to abandon it due to the competition Trend: down
Sub-phaze 4a: back to phaze 1 or 2
sub-phaze 4b: the big crunch: all smaller companies will leave the market the big ones will start an Oligarchopoly
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If in some way the current trend forces companies to re-evalaulate their product in relation to what consumers want, then I am fine with it. I can only hope that we will move beyond the carbon copy, cookie cutter knock-offs and into some new territory with MMO's. I also hope the new trend discourages companies from releasing beta versions of their games as the final product and then spend the next few months patching the hell out of it.
How many of us have changed our purchasing habits with relation to MMO's based on the recent trend of releasing incomplete games. How many of us were affected when a gaming powerhouse with near limitless resources like SOE and LucasArts released a game that was at best 85% complete ?
Notice: The views expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of MMORPG.com or its management.
You are making the assumption that we have left phase 2 and entered phase 3. Citing 3 companies leaving a field of 100+ does not match the "more and more companies have to abandon" phrase.
I, for one, have changed my purchasing habits. I doubt I'll be the first player of any MMOG from now on. It's not just SOE, however. It seems that the last few big MMOGs have been released in final beta stages.
EA made an interesting move with Earth & Beyond. People who "prepurchased" the game were guaranteed a spot in the final beta. In other words, EA sold beta slots! Savvy marketing, but I don't know that it helped the game become better. SOE executed a similar move with Lords of EverQuest when they guaranteed purchasers of that game a spot in the EQ2 beta. It's as if beta testing has become less of a tool and more of a marketing perk.
I think the bloom has come off the beta testing rose a bit, as more people have joined betas and realized it's not merely an early peek at the game. Everyone wants a shot at playing EQ2, but few want to search out bugs and duly report them. There's little more ironic than a beta tester griping because a bug is preventing him from "playing the game."
The question is, are the developers actually using the feedback from these open betas for fix the game for general release, or are they just viewing this group as the first wave of real players? Recent events make me think the latter, unfortunately.
Hopefully the recent shake-up will cause companies to endeavor to release a game that is ready for market. One of the biggest issues new games face is not so much a lack of initial players, but a rapid drop-off of players after the free subscription expires. I can think of several games that have suffered because the game was 90% there and, after a month, players said, "Enough!"
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Old timer.
That's a good rule, one I follow also. Those I know who are maintaining old gaming accounts are under the impression that they may, "go back to it" someday. I can appreciate that, but we need to inject a dose of reality. If it's costing you $150/year for something you "may play again," it's probably not worth it, especially since several publishers let you reactivate your account. I quit playing DAoC in 2002 and only recently re-joined. All my original characters were still in place. Imagine if I'd paid $13/month for 22 months!
You and me both, but we're oddballs in relation to the general population. (Actually, the TV zombies are the oddballs IMHO, but that's another topic
) I think most people in America today get the overwhelming share of their entertainment from television. As PCs and high-speed access proliferate, I think the number of folks using PCs as their primary leisure device will climb, but we're a long way from overtaking the idiot box.
I'd bet it's more than you'd think. I often think of that when I see the numbers for some of the bigger games. EQ boasts 450,000 subscribers, but how many of those are second and third accounts or inactive accounts that people are maintaining? I'm sure SOE doesn't care, as it's still revenue.
I say one.
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Old timer.
You are making the assumption that we have left phase 2 and entered phase 3. Citing 3 companies leaving a field of 100+ does not match the "more and more companies have to abandon" phrase.
I'm not in the assumption that we have left phaze 2 i'm saying that we are leaving... 2 different things. Believe me we have just tasted a drop of what is to come. I believe the newcomers this year will have a very tough time ahead. I believe that only newcomers who allready have somewhat of a fanbase from old MMORPG's or other games may compete. We saw it last year with SWG skyrocketing. I Believe that a game like that. who can keep some uniqueness and fun in gameplay will become MMORPG on the sale side.
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Let me remind you of what you originally wrote:
Entering phase 3 means you've left phase 2, or are you going to suggest that somehow there is an amorphous overlap?
If you are suggesting we are entering phase 3 then you are suggesting that we are entering a downward trend. This is what I contest. I do not see a downward trend at all. Remember, market corrections happen at all times in healthy and unhealthy markets and market conditions alike.
Will more MMOGs fail or be terminated early? Indeed they will...but that's not news. Games have been cancelled for decades, some of which were deep in a development cycle, some almost ready for release to the public. The reasons are myriad and often undisclosed, or at least obfuscated by management. You would think, if you used cancelled games as your trend indicator, that gaming in general has seen many downward trends. But that is clearly not so, as the continuing boom of revenue confirms.
The annuity revenue model will continue to make the MMOG an exceptionally attractive option for those willing to accept the inherent risks in being early to market. And believe me, we are very early in this market.
Let me just take that economics textbook of yours and toss it out the window shall we? Because it is making you look silly.
Ok Basic Market Economy. Basic as in, everyone should know this, no one should ever have to write this down.
If, at any time, the market finds a lucrative thread of business that seems to be popular among the average buyers at the moment, that thread of business will be, without a doubt and heavilly so, flooded by everyone and their sister until it hits the roof and goes through it. After this phenomena has happened, the market will by itself and its nature, correct itself into a more balanced situation close to the scale of demand.
It happended to the Dancing Flower and the Singing Fish, it happened to all the Web Design Companies and all the Jeans Companies, it happened to all the T shirt compaines with small fruits and animals on the chest and it will, without a doubt, happen to the MMORPG companies.
It is just the way it works... Like the way your mouth always tasted a bit icky in the morning, no matter how much you brushed your teeth the night before, it is a part of human nature. As soon as someone see a thing someone else make tons of money on, they will, even if they only have marginal skill, see if they can do something to cash in on it as well.
Now... ANY company with some seriousness here, will see when the market is flooded or is about to be flooded, and then make a calculation on the risk versus reward. If they feel their product is not up to the mark they want, or if the interest is too low aorund it, or if they just feel the cost is too high compared to the calculated revenue, they might feel it is the wrong time to add their product to an already flooded market.
That is what is happening now... The market is balancing itself out. Soon, we will have our Levi's of jeans, our Lacoste of shirts, our Super Mario of platforms, and most others will disappear into oblivion. In a few years, will anyone sit and say "That was the end of this genre"? Nope... Most will say "Finally the jokers are cleaned out of the market" and be happy about that. it is not a downward spiral anywhere.. It is part of market evolution.. forward.. not down.
"This is not a game to be tossed aside lightly.
It should be thrown with great force"
I beg to differ
Entering phaze 3 can mean that you're in the end of phaze 2 and soon will enter phaze 3.
however I do see a downward trend in that some mmorpg projects are getting cut I do see a downward trend in that existing MMORPG's are being cancelled.
what we are not discussing is other kinds of games but just MMORPG's wich has been realitively saved from cuts so far. The rescent cuts and some market dissapointments last year is showing that many MMORPG producers are aknowledging that we're entering phaze 3
sorry for taking the role of a doomsday prophet (the end is near! oh the end is near!) but that is my belief
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You can have any opinion you like. Meanwhile, I'll be playing MMOGs for the next 10-20 years, as will tens of millions of others.
The economics of computer games is unusual, if not unique, compared to other fields of entertainment. For example, if you want to buy Spy Kids 3D (which comes out tomorrow), you will probably pay around $20. The price is not extraordinarily high because the movie already had a successful theatrical run followed by PPV showings, each of which contributed to the bottom line. The home video releases are the third wave of revenue for this title.
PC Games, however, have a much shorter shelf life. When the game comes out, that's it. Very few games have a second life (I'm not talking about sequels). Even the hottest games around are usually selling in the bargain bin within 6-8 months of release, so the developers have to strike while the iron is hot. Without getting into too many other areas, suffice it to say that it's a much more challenging field.
MMOGs are different still, given that they are ongoing. GTAIII was a huge game. Everyone I know has a copy, and none of them play it anymore. Compare that to EverQuest - 5 years old and going strong. Why? GTAIII and other non-persistent games are basically static (again, not talking about mods, etc.) whereas MMOGs regularly change. Therefore, the potential lifespan of a MMOG is much greater than that of a standard game.
My point is that it is difficult to pin these events to a specific economic theory. I'm not saying that your economic arguments are without merit - not at all. What I am saying is that persistent worlds bring a whole different perspective to the economic argument and that has to be taken into account.
Again, I think these cancellations are part of the natural cycle of the market. It's just that these three getting hammered consecutively is shocking, to say the least.
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Old timer.