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150000-200000 Subscribers!!
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A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.
Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher.
Explain to me what 150K is? The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September. Now answer this.. On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have? 415k. If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.
If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August, ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th. Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.
Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June. How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.
Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance. Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day. $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.
What Azrile said.
If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).
Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average.
I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.
As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.
A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.
Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher.
Explain to me what 150K is? The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September. Now answer this.. On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have? 415k. If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.
If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August, ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th. Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.
Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June. How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.
Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance. Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day. $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.
What Azrile said.
If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).
Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average.
I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.
As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.
errr... the 150 to 200 000 subscriber calculation (even though simplistic) is based on FC's revenue forecast for Q4. Meaning 150-200 000 subscribers is the average number for Q4. Just wanted to shed some light.
A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.
Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher.
Explain to me what 150K is? The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September. Now answer this.. On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have? 415k. If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.
If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August, ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th. Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.
Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June. How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.
Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance. Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day. $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.
What Azrile said.
If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).
Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average.
I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.
As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.
errr... the 150 to 200 000 subscriber calculation (even though simplistic) is based on FC's revenue forecast for Q4. Meaning 150-200 000 subscribers is the average number for Q4. Just wanted to shed some light.
without question 200k subs over quarter 4 is above their revenue guidance, 150 is fair, 200 is not.
edit and by the way I'm not saying funcom have 150k subs now I'm saying thats the sort of number they have used for their revenue guidance, I still think that is optimistic.
Just trying to be objective here -- I know a lot of people who were still playing at the beginning of Q3. Realize that would have started around June, so these numbers are not close to being a reflection of the current game. I was subbed in June and July as was my whole guild (350 members). Not 1 of us plays the game now.
I am not trolling, I don't dispute there are people who subscribe to this game, my point is, you need to look at what that quarter covers. They don't release that detailed info for the last week, it is from months ago.
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If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
Because stock price isn't related to company health it's related to earnings potential. Funcom isn't getting rich, they're not going broke either. Funcom won't sell AoC as long as it's making at least some money and no one is going to buy on it if it isn't. Funcom isn't going broke , that's not a projection it's demonstable fact, AoC isn't going anywhere.
Taken from Yahoo Finance.
52wk Range: 3.48(<---today roughly) - (at launch roughly--->)55.50
Is there any debate about the direction in which Funcom is heading?
Everyone should think about the above: those earnings are OLD. We are november now and those earnings are about the Jul-Sep period.
The above poster is right: Mr X bought the game on June 1, had a free month. And subscribed back then (prepaid card = 2 months) or 3 months CC. If you look at the figure on Xfire you see that at the end of June the number of 400K subs would indeed be true. (40K XFire playing time - now down to 5 K Xfire time).
Now those Xfire figures show a playing time of 8 times less. Meaning 50K players regulary. 100K or even slightly less is the absolute maximum numbers of subscribers by NOW.
It also makes sense: 420K at the end of June, 200 K end of Aug, 100K end of Sep and now even less. Xfire never lies about players playing less a specific game. Just look at War.
No matter what FunCom predicts for the 4th Q.
At this time AoC is out of every top 200 on PC games charts, meaning NO new players buy the thing. And the percentage of returning players is neglectable. That's why it still drops on Xfire.
I don't think the game will make it to 2010. Remember Hellgate London. It can go quickly once reserves run out and I don't see any candidates to take it over. Not with this engine.
If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
they are making profit, bigtime compared to the last quarters (im not saying they are making big profits, but just look at the financial presentation), the stock price is low cause they could have made so much more and the financial crisis hits the stockmarket very hard
MMOs currently playing: -
About to play: Lord of the Rings Online
Played: Anarchy Online (alltime favorite) and lots of f2p titles (honorable mentions: 9Dragons, Martial Heroes, Dekaron, Atlantica Online)
Look, noone is looking to old numbers to calculate 150 000 to 200 000 active players. In a Quarterly report a company will always predic what next quarters report will look like in terms of revenue. These are the numbers used to make this calculation. FC says we think we will make all in all 8-10 Mill USD in Q4 and these are the numbers that predict as much as 150000 to 200000 players.
just to be clear about this. In the 2nd quarter, Funcom lost 7M dollars. In the third quarter, they made 2M dollars. So basically since AOC has been released, Funcom has lost 5M.
Now lets look at the 3Q. They made 2m but only because they pushed box sales into this quarter that really should have been applied to the 2nd quarter. On Revenues of 18M, they made 2M. Now next quarter they are expecting 9M in revenues ( unless they find another 6M of ghost money). If they were barely profitable with 18M in revenues ( 8M of which is suspect), then you really think they are going to be profitable when revenues drop to 9M?
there is just too much fishy about Funcoms accounting. They already had a 6M error in the 2nd quarter, who knows what they are going to have to fix next quarter. That 18M was because of twisting numbers. If they hadn't added those two extras, they would have lost 4-5M this quarter.
So moral of this financial adventure:
- Azrile can't pull magic numbers from his ***.
- Funcom is profitable. The game is far from dieing and only improving.
- WoW still sucks.
GG
-----------------------------
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Osbourne Cox: You are part of a league of morons. Oh, yes. You see you're one of the morons I've been fighting my whole life. But guess what. Today, I win.
If you look at the xfire numbers, there is no way this game has more than 100k subscribers
EVE has 3 times as many hours. And EVE has about 250k subscribers.
WoW got over 11 million subs and probably more now when WotLK has been released. If you think WoW sucks, fine, but you are denying the reality my friend. Numbers speak for themselves.
A fanboi is a fanboi, if he was the only one left playing AoC after everyone left in frustration, he would still praise the game for how much better it is. All this without realizing the reality. Again, the numbers do the job.
WoW got over 11 million subs and probably more now when WotLK has been released. If you think WoW sucks, fine, but you are denying the reality my friend. Numbers speak for themselves.
A fanboi is a fanboi, if he was the only one left playing AoC after everyone left in frustration, he would still praise the game for how much better it is. All this without realizing the reality. Again, the numbers do the job.
You sound like the real fanboi here. LOL
How many people subscribes doesn't always show how good a game is. Remember what people say when WoW was the center of attention? Join the online sensation. Popularity contest are of no interest to me. BTW, I am no interested in AoC either, I just can't stand WoW fanboi is all.
If 11 million people jump off a cliff, I'd still wouldn't think it is a good idea, however, the earth will have 11 million more jobs and places to live. Hmm, tough choice.
No the moral is - Funcom had one profitable qtr, they are predicting another based on their Q3 figures.
Xfire shows a decline in hours played since Q3 which suggests they arent going to hit that target.
You will have to wait until Feb next year to find out if they were right or wrong.
WoW got over 11 million subs and probably more now when WotLK has been released. If you think WoW sucks, fine, but you are denying the reality my friend. Numbers speak for themselves.
A fanboi is a fanboi, if he was the only one left playing AoC after everyone left in frustration, he would still praise the game for how much better it is. All this without realizing the reality. Again, the numbers do the job.
You sound like the real fanboi here. LOL
How many people subscribes doesn't always show how good a game is. Remember what people say when WoW was the center of attention? Join the online sensation. Popularity contest are of no interest to me. BTW, I am no interested in AoC either, I just can't stand WoW fanboi is all.
If 11 million people jump off a cliff, I'd still wouldn't think it is a good idea, however, the earth will have 11 million more jobs and places to live. Hmm, tough choice.
Ok but the reverse is true as well. If 11 million people decide to NOT jump off of a cliff and stay home and eat brownies then that could be the better idea.
If 11 million people decide to do something then it's just up to the individual to see if those 11 million people are right.
I think there is a difference between saying "WoW is the end all and be all of gaming" and "there are so many people who play WoW that it must have some sort of appeal".
It is then up to the individual to assess whether or not they value the same appeal.
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How many people subscribe determines whether the game stays or gets canned. Of course, Funcom can just add advertisements to AoC like they did to AO to keep it profitable while it suffers a severe lack of paying customers. Can't wait to hear the praises when Fanta ads are splashed on wooden billboards ingame..................
If 11million people stay home and eat browny, then I rather jump off the cliff. Not everyone likes brownies you know, well "special" brownies I might make an exception to.
(However, point taken, but you are taking an analogy way too literally. LOL)
If 11 million people play a game, and if the game itself is actually incredible, then I am all for following a trend.
If 11 million people play a game, and that game is really only average, then I am a rebel. (This is WoW)
If 11 million people play a game, and the game is terrible, then I'd jump off the cliff no matter what. (Good thing this haven't really happened yet)
BTW, my judgement on a game is not even close to being harsh. I've played games that others wouldn't even touch out of reasons such as 2-D graphics and some meaningless reasons. Gameplay is what I am about, everything else are just bonus. Of course bigger the bonus, the more likely it will be closer to being incredible.
I can't believe I am explaining to someone about a freaking analogy. It's to make a point, it is not literal. LMAO
The fact is : YOUR individual opinion is not what the majority of MMORPG gamers think.
Does that mean your opinion isn't valid? Of course it's valid and "unique", but the rating of a paid subscription based game has a very easy rating system.
The number of subscriptions it has:.
Meaning Wow has now about 5 stars (5 M western based subs), the others have 0.25 stars or less.
Meaning people vote with their wallet and that's the ONLY rating system that counts in paid MMORPG's
Every idiot can fill in a free of charge "1" on a free website. Just look how pathetic MMORPG.COM looks in its charts.
Is the difference that great (5 stars against 0.25 ?). In my opinion YES. It suffices to launch WotLK and enter Northrend purely on the world design alone. In your opinion NO clearly, but....
Guess what would happen if those other 11.000.000 people would begin to publish they love the game soooo much, they want to pay money for it every month and still outplay in playing hours every damned PC game on the market for 4 years now. Your post wouldn't even be seen between the massive lines of comments.
So you are a member of that very vocal minority. Very vocal but please remember a minority of what I would call a very narrow minded piece of XXXX. Please fill in the word as you would see fit.
Your attitiude is normal of course, because people like to feel being unique, but hey this IS a video game remember. Not a life style discussion. And of course .... you are just one of the many 6.000.000.000 out there. A pity I know.
He quit.
Ok but the reverse is true as well. If 11 million people decide to NOT jump off of a cliff and stay home and eat brownies then that could be the better idea.
If 11 million people decide to do something then it's just up to the individual to see if those 11 million people are right.
I think there is a difference between saying "WoW is the end all and be all of gaming" and "there are so many people who play WoW that it must have some sort of appeal".
It is then up to the individual to assess whether or not they value the same appeal.
Apologies for participating in the derail but:
it is a good solid DIKU style game that is easy to pick up and learn yet requires lots of time invested to max out in. It will play on low end and older machines including Apples ( without a workaround). Blizzard had a great rep before launch and has kept that image. Blizzard also has a great marketing department.
Anyway I doubt AoC has 75- 100K left and that is a optimistic guess and will continue to drop unless the server merges happen pretty soon. Just my opinion.
I miss DAoC
The Backstreet Boys album Millenium sold 40 million copies. So I guess that means the Backstreet boys are one of the best bands of all time right?
You think I pulled numbers from my butt?
have you looked at Funcoms 3Q numbers? They are the ones that are admitting pulling 6M from their butts, and probably another 1-2M from Box sales from the 2nd quarter.
Funcom was profitable for 3 months, IF you count the magic $6M AND you count the box sales from the 2nd quarter.
If you look at the last 6 months, No matter how much funcom cheated, they still weren't profitable. They lost more money in the second quarter then they made in the 3Q (with their bogus accounting).
They were barely profitable in the 3Q with the bogus numbers giving them 18M in sales. They are expecting 9M in sales in the 4Q. Do you think they will be profitable with 9M in sales if they were barely profitable with 18M?
You think I pulled numbers from my butt?
have you looked at Funcoms 3Q numbers? They are the ones that are admitting pulling 6M from their butts, and probably another 1-2M from Box sales from the 2nd quarter.
Funcom was profitable for 3 months, IF you count the magic $6M AND you count the box sales from the 2nd quarter.
If you look at the last 6 months, No matter how much funcom cheated, they still weren't profitable. They lost more money in the second quarter then they made in the 3Q (with their bogus accounting).
They were barely profitable in the 3Q with the bogus numbers giving them 18M in sales. They are expecting 9M in sales in the 4Q. Do you think they will be profitable with 9M in sales if they were barely profitable with 18M?
If the q3 report looks so good then why is their stock still tanking? As of right now, its close to yet another all time low. Something just doesnt add up.
Ironic isn't it? you are replying on the topic where the OP also pulled the subscription numbers right out of his *** and than disappeared. You are arguing about others doing the same but you forget the title of this topic. Really ironic.